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Post-coup diplomacy and the money trail


Lite Beer

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Is it possible that the US government does not understand they have bankrupted their country, and made the US less relevant to world politics going forward than outer Mongolia ? When China recalls their loans, Barraco Barner will be hot on the blower to Prayuth(and other Asian leaders) begging to borrow some dosh. So he had better keep on the general's good side.

"When China recalls their loans." Clearly you have no understanding of why trillions of Treasuries have been bought and how those markets work. Nor that two-thirds of China's wealthy have or are planning to emigrate, with the U.S. as first choice of destination. What does that suggest about the future?

Yep - quite a few wealthy Chinese business people I know (not mega rich but very comfortable) want to get American or Canadian citizenship for their children and possibly themselves.

They all seem worried that China could revert back to strong communist ideals at a snap and they would loose their wealth, possessions and political influence. They also see the benefits associated such as passports and less travel restrictions etc

When I was a young boy I remember reading that the population of the US was 20% Irish origin. For the future I wonder if the Latinos, Indians or Chinese will take over?

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I would hardly say Australia and the USA governments are in a position to comment they are both woeful administrations and really have no idea what is going on in Thailand.

Always a good laugh to read posts like this one.

The USA and Australia, sure, what would they know about Thailand ? Not as if they're expats who post on TVF.

Clearly, the USA and Australia make all of their decisions based upon academic papers, high level embassy reports

that are out of touch with the "real" Thailand. To imagine they have no idea about the lay of the land, and probably too

a much better degree than most posters (myself certainly included) is a preposterous, if common, point of view.

I think that the USA, EU and Australia reactions to the coup were over the top, yes. Totally unreasonable, no.

That the current storm in a teacup will pass is nothing short of guaranteed, editorial articles in The Nation notwithstanding.

Don't disagree with your comments. But with the caveat the current US and Aussie governments have, despite whatever information they have. screwed up many decisions and seem to be permanently in one mess or another. The EU are always busy falling out among themselves and any EU foreign policy announcement is laughable when several senior members don't support the federalist notions of others.

All 3 seem to announce what they consider PC. But will reverse it when it suits as in Egypt and Ukraine.

I'm sure the professionals who produce the high level reports and academic papers must sometimes collectively rip their hair out at the response from their elected leaders. But that's democracy.

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Is it possible that the US government does not understand they have bankrupted their country, and made the US less relevant to world politics going forward than outer Mongolia ? When China recalls their loans, Barraco Barner will be hot on the blower to Prayuth(and other Asian leaders) begging to borrow some dosh. So he had better keep on the general's good side.

Good God. The US doesn't have any "loans" from the Chinese. The Chinese hold US dollars in the form of bonds so that they can buy and sell in international trade. No one will accept Chinese currency. The dollar is the international unit of trade and even Thailand has a lot of US dollars in reserve for that purpose.

Where do people get this crap? China buys US dollars because it has to, and suddenly it is rich. China's debt and economy is falling and dangerous. China is about to careen into the tank.

The US irrelevant to whom? What is the topic of the OP?

The US is the second largest buyer of Thailand's exports, and running the US off would bankrupt Thailand.

And you are so educated that you think the US is "less relevant than Mongolia."

Keep up your wishful thinking. The US debt as a percentage of GDP is far less than Japan's, less than China's counting China's shadow banking system, and not very much more than the UK's. The US has by far the world's biggest economy so the numbers will always look big.

Not everyone can brag that their economy is a consumer driven economy and not reliant on exports, the US can, it's the only country in fact, a very good position to be in.

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When the 133 strong countries that have signed an alliance to stop US world dominance start implementing their strategies, the USA will likely see its mighty currency collapse as well as its entire economy.

They will surely join the China/Russia pact to stop using the USD for global trading and the rest of the world is likely to follow.

I have already seen signs of this starting to emerge with some Chinese suppliers on alibaba.com quoting prices in RMB The first time I ever saw that in over 15 years trading on there. The other day I was 2 instances of it on just one page of results.

Also, the hidden reason why the US went after Ghaddafi is that he was plotting with OPEC to use a special custom currency purely for oil trades and dump the mighty USD... Not a lot of people know that, but that was a message sent out to OPEC. But they will still end up dumping it anyway...

These things will collapse the dollar and the US economy and put the USA back 50 years.

The world has had enough of US foreign policy and their CIA instigating coups and overthrowing of governments for their own gains while at the same time they have the absolute temerity to negatively comment on a coup not controlled by themselves.

Keep your military exercises and your poxy 4 million USD military aid, that is a drop in the ocean compared with the money flowing into offshore bank accounts under the administration that YOU tried to keep in place.

Thailand needs to build with China, because that is going to be the next global force, while the USA will be bankrupt.

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Certainly western powers are no saints when it comes to manipulating global politics. However, I think there is a basic understanding of the mechanics of Thai politics. In western democracies, the military is subservient to the elected government and it's main duty is to respond to issues of national defense. The differences in Thailand are obvious and glaring.

The first allegiance of the UK military is to the monarch, much the same I believe as Thailand.

It could be argued that the recent coup was a response to issues of national defence, The fact they were internal rather than external did not reduce the damage being done to the country.

Edit: Just saw the post by gchurch, pretty well the same thinking.

Edited by Bpuumike
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Totally different approach in Germany (I guess in some other EU countries, as well): the German parliament decide when and where to deploy military troops. The military fighting "internal enemies" is not only unconstitutional but also unthinkable! It is the responsibility of the police and only of the police. The majority of the people in Germany support this principal. I think it should be considered in Thailand, as well (if there will ever be an elected government again).

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If Thailand did decide to cosy up with China, what exactly would be the big deal in the grand scheme of things?

China has swallowed up Laos like an afternoon snack. And if Thailand is not careful , they will

share the same fate. Thaksin's clan had cozy relations with China due to their

shared ancestry, the classic Thai/ Chinese group that owns Thailand. I think that Prayuth is

actually a Thai person, and I doubt he would move in the direction of China. Besides

there is no upside for Thailand. China will simply flood the country with shoddy goods,

in essence wiping out whatever Thai industries are left at this point.

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Extrapolating on the OP, I come up with a more subtle reason why the "Western Democracies" are condemning the coup so much:

It's not really about Thailand, but about the perception of Democracy. Let's look at the prime example, as always the US...It's not quite a real Democracy anymore, is it? Conceived nearly 250 years ago, it has undergone many changes and evolved with the times, but is policy made by Senators, Congressman, President who are supposed to represent the American people, or is policy "suggested" to those lawmakers by corporations and "special interest groups"? And these suggestions are accompanied by "incentives"... So, 'democracy' is a label that fits many different situations, if you look at it closely.

Now comes Thailand, a democracy with it's own flavor...and it has a military coup that aims to clean up and reboot the democratic system. Wow, the West is in shock, no wrong, not the West, but the Western Governments are in shock - why? Maybe they don't want the coup makers to succeed, maybe they don't want an example of a country trying to get rid of it's own government's corruption, maybe it's bad for "business as usual", maybe they don't want their own people to take note and start questioning things outside the controlled and established framework of "checks and balances", maybe they have reason to be concerned...

Questioning things is important, questioning the status quo is more important, questioning those that can influence the way you live is the most important. There are no stupid questions.

Disclaimer: this is a fictional piece and no governments were hurt by its writing.

At the moment no government has been harmed, but who knows what might happen in the near future in some of the so - called democracies.

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I would hardly say Australia and the USA governments are in a position to comment they are both woeful administrations and really have no idea what is going on in Thailand.

I think they know what is happening in Thailand but have backed them selves into a corner with their loud proclamations of Democracy being the only way.

You will notice that they are very quietly dropping the travelers alerts. Being an American I may have been influenced by the western idea of China. As it turns out I am having to take a good look at that belief. It may and probably was true at one point but times change and Chinas is not the China of Mao.

I can't say as I approve of their expansionist policies but economically they may be a better fit for Thailand. I would not be surprised to see in the future the West doing a lot of back peddling on their beliefs.

The Thai government said they understood not being invited to the U S 4th of July celebration. But I am sure they will remember it in the future dealings with the U S.

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I would hardly say Australia and the USA governments are in a position to comment they are both woeful administrations and really have no idea what is going on in Thailand.

I think they know what is happening in Thailand but have backed them selves into a corner with their loud proclamations of Democracy being the only way.

You will notice that they are very quietly dropping the travelers alerts. Being an American I may have been influenced by the western idea of China. As it turns out I am having to take a good look at that belief. It may and probably was true at one point but times change and Chinas is not the China of Mao.

I can't say as I approve of their expansionist policies but economically they may be a better fit for Thailand. I would not be surprised to see in the future the West doing a lot of back peddling on their beliefs.

The Thai government said they understood not being invited to the U S 4th of July celebration. But I am sure they will remember it in the future dealings with the U S.

China has a strict non-interference policy. As long as a government does not recognize Taiwan as a state independent from China they can more or less do whatever they want. Human rights violations, atrocities of any kind, China will remain a reliable business partner. I do not know whether this is a likable position.

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Thailand will NEVER take responsibility for its own failings. The 1997 crisis was , for years, referred to here as " the IMF crisis", even though the genesis of it ( and the ripple effect throughout Asia) was the failure of the Thai elite and military to manage the economy, the currency and to control corruption. FAIL. FAIL. FAIL.

Now we see the same xenophobic response, no one understands us, we're different. Progress in resolving these endemic problems is contingent of first recognising that they are home grown, not caused by anyone else. ...the nasty west forced us to turn to China. What pathetic crap.

Well you have to admit that they don't understand Thailand or justice for that matter when they back the corruption that was not only taking place but continuing to grow. They had a government with an armed contingent responsible to no one killing people who were demonstrating against corruption in government and the Government stood by and watched it.

The Government forcing rice growers into massive bills because of the rice scam they perpetrated on them. Either they could not understand these things or they were condoning them. Take your pick.

I think they were condoning them.

As for forcing them to go to China. Not really. That is not the case the relationship between the two countries has been growing for quite a while. You will note that the Chinese tourist invasion started long before the military took over.

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Extrapolating on the OP, I come up with a more subtle reason why the "Western Democracies" are condemning the coup so much:

It's not really about Thailand, but about the perception of Democracy. Let's look at the prime example, as always the US...It's not quite a real Democracy anymore, is it? Conceived nearly 250 years ago, it has undergone many changes and evolved with the times, but is policy made by Senators, Congressman, President who are supposed to represent the American people, or is policy "suggested" to those lawmakers by corporations and "special interest groups"? And these suggestions are accompanied by "incentives"... So, 'democracy' is a label that fits many different situations, if you look at it closely.

Now comes Thailand, a democracy with it's own flavor...and it has a military coup that aims to clean up and reboot the democratic system. Wow, the West is in shock, no wrong, not the West, but the Western Governments are in shock - why? Maybe they don't want the coup makers to succeed, maybe they don't want an example of a country trying to get rid of it's own government's corruption, maybe it's bad for "business as usual", maybe they don't want their own people to take note and start questioning things outside the controlled and established framework of "checks and balances", maybe they have reason to be concerned...

Questioning things is important, questioning the status quo is more important, questioning those that can influence the way you live is the most important. There are no stupid questions.

Disclaimer: this is a fictional piece and no governments were hurt by its writing.

Well I will agree that it is a matter of perception.

Take the United States people think it is a democracy and they try to project that image but the fact is it is not. It was created 239 years ago as a Republic and has not changed since. That is the reason for their Senate. Two Senators from every state. So the two from Alaska with it's small population have the same power as the two from California with it's massively huge population. I don't know the figures but I would not be one bit surprised if California had three cities each with a larger population than Alaska. Yet no more say in the Senate than Alaska.

Is that democracy? I think not.

It is just a minor little detail that the world over looks in it's drive to pat it's self on the back.

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When the 133 strong countries that have signed an alliance to stop US world dominance start implementing their strategies, the USA will likely see its mighty currency collapse as well as its entire economy.

They will surely join the China/Russia pact to stop using the USD for global trading and the rest of the world is likely to follow.

I have already seen signs of this starting to emerge with some Chinese suppliers on alibaba.com quoting prices in RMB The first time I ever saw that in over 15 years trading on there. The other day I was 2 instances of it on just one page of results.

Also, the hidden reason why the US went after Ghaddafi is that he was plotting with OPEC to use a special custom currency purely for oil trades and dump the mighty USD... Not a lot of people know that, but that was a message sent out to OPEC. But they will still end up dumping it anyway...

These things will collapse the dollar and the US economy and put the USA back 50 years.

The world has had enough of US foreign policy and their CIA instigating coups and overthrowing of governments for their own gains while at the same time they have the absolute temerity to negatively comment on a coup not controlled by themselves.

Keep your military exercises and your poxy 4 million USD military aid, that is a drop in the ocean compared with the money flowing into offshore bank accounts under the administration that YOU tried to keep in place.

Thailand needs to build with China, because that is going to be the next global force, while the USA will be bankrupt.

It is amazing. Every time, I think this is really the weirdest stuff I have ever read someone shows up with predictions for the future that leave me speechless.

By the way, even the Euro has not been able to replace the US Dollar. But may be the Renminbi (what a great name for a great currency) will. Then Thailand could have not only Kangaroo courts but also Kangaroo money.

In Chinese, "renminbi" means "people's currency".

More commonly referred to as the yuan.

China has the 2nd largest economy in the world & will be #1 by 2020 if not sooner.

The US dollar is based on the "petro dollar" & as the world's #1 currency now..... it has allowed the US to print money from thin air.

like all great "pyramid" schemes as long as everyone buys in..it works great.

Unfortunately, as seen in recent Russia China gas deal, they are not exchanging US dollars & many countries are following.

China has been buying as much gold as they can get & not keeping anymore than 1.5 trillion in US bonds so the Fed has to look for other client countries to buy in as witnessed by Belgium buying $56 billion US in bonds a couple months ago..( probably fronted by the US Fed).

All the markets & stats are rigged in the US...unemployment is at least 20%...46+ million Americans on food stamps.US economy has not grown in 7 years.

I'm not saying the US dollar pyramid scheme will fall anytime soon...but if I was a betting man..I 'd buy gold.

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Totally different approach in Germany (I guess in some other EU countries, as well): the German parliament decide when and where to deploy military troops. The military fighting "internal enemies" is not only unconstitutional but also unthinkable! It is the responsibility of the police and only of the police. The majority of the people in Germany support this principal. I think it should be considered in Thailand, as well (if there will ever be an elected government again).

Same in the USA. The idea that the military could turn on its own people is revolting. Speaking of revolting, even members of the military wouldn't turn on their own people.

There are a very few limited and temporary times when martial law can be implemented but it's a temporary emergency when local law enforcement is overwhelmed such as hurricane Katrina. Even then the military personnel are subject to local law enforcement and to Congress.

But the idea that the military could take over the government is preposterous. I have more than 100 million citizens with more than 300 million guns who say it ain't gonna happen. Many of those 300 million guns are owned privately by members of the military and police officers and their families. They would turn on the military.

In order to get those guns the craziest and most suicidal members of the military with the lowest IQ's would have to go door to door 555.

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Totally different approach in Germany (I guess in some other EU countries, as well): the German parliament decide when and where to deploy military troops. The military fighting "internal enemies" is not only unconstitutional but also unthinkable! It is the responsibility of the police and only of the police. The majority of the people in Germany support this principal. I think it should be considered in Thailand, as well (if there will ever be an elected government again).

Same in the USA. The idea that the military could turn on its own people is revolting. Speaking of revolting, even members of the military wouldn't turn on their own people.

There are a very few limited and temporary times when martial law can be implemented but it's a temporary emergency when local law enforcement is overwhelmed such as hurricane Katrina. Even then the military personnel are subject to local law enforcement and to Congress.

But the idea that the military could take over the government is preposterous. I have more than 100 million citizens with more than 300 million guns who say it ain't gonna happen. Many of those 300 million guns are owned privately by members of the military and police officers and their families. They would turn on the military.

In order to get those guns the craziest and most suicidal members of the military with the lowest IQ's would have to go door to door 555.

I guess, these similarities (except for the privately owned guns) are no coincidence considering that the US helped a bit in creating our constitution. smile.pngsmile.pngsmile.png

I remember that some time ago there was a very brief public discussion in a few newspapers (for a day or so) raising the "what if.." question. It was so absurd that literally everybody laughed about it. I think our soldiers were the ones that were surprised the most by this ridiculous and, I agree, preposterous thought.

Lucky those who live in a country with a self-conscious civil society and a democratic constitution. Obviously, that is not a given everywhere in the world.

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The OP I'm sure will have many posters commenting on how Thailand is corrupt,nothing will change ,the Thai won't accept blame,they have to be part of the World & play by the Rules etc.

But the reality in my opinion is exactly as the OP has said it is.

The West, especially the US has a relatively long history as allies to Thailand but.......

Thailand sees the US as "fine weather friends" since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis & more so since the 2006 Thai Military Coup....... whereas China has been supportive.

Most countries will look out for their economic interests and try to blend that interest with due process of law. While the US, Australia and many western nations might condemn the coup as wrong they will be moderate in their actions. China on the other hand has no ethical standards with which it has to deal. China is for China and will hold hands with anyone in power to further their own interests. So if the coup in Thailand is the phase at the moment, China will hold hands with the junta. China is clearly continuing to further its own economic interests as can be seen by their investment in Africa and elsewhere and their attempts to further their ownership of off shore islands claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan for no other reason that potential resources in the area. So let's not hold up China as some kind of supportive hero for the Thais.

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Certainly western powers are no saints when it comes to manipulating global politics. However, I think there is a basic understanding of the mechanics of Thai politics. In western democracies, the military is subservient to the elected government and it's main duty is to respond to issues of national defense. The differences in Thailand are obvious and glaring.

The first allegiance of the UK military is to the monarch, much the same I believe as Thailand.

It could be argued that the recent coup was a response to issues of national defence, The fact they were internal rather than external did not reduce the damage being done to the country.

Edit: Just saw the post by gchurch, pretty well the same thinking.

In most, if not all, democracies, martial law would be imposed by the executive branch of government to control situations that were beyond the capabilities of local law enforcement officials. The military would be acting in tandem with elected officials and local law enforcement authorities. In the UK, would the military have the unilateral right to impose martial law? Saw the pictures yesterday of Myanmar's Commander-in-Chief hugging Thailand's Supreme Commander. Thailand's Supreme commander said the Myanmar understood Thailand's problems because Myanmar had a similar situation in 1988. Makes it crystal clear to me what the Thai military thinks.

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Thailand will NEVER take responsibility for its own failings. The 1997 crisis was , for years, referred to here as " the IMF crisis", even though the genesis of it ( and the ripple effect throughout Asia) was the failure of the Thai elite and military to manage the economy, the currency and to control corruption. FAIL. FAIL. FAIL.

Now we see the same xenophobic response, no one understands us, we're different. Progress in resolving these endemic problems is contingent of first recognising that they are home grown, not caused by anyone else. ...the nasty west forced us to turn to China. What pathetic crap.

What's Pathetic Cap are your posts ! I don't think I've read one of your posts that Aren't !!!

Sent from my SGH-I337M using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

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Why are so many Thais upset with the West's reaction?

I think the OP missed the true reason the Thais are upset with the West's reaction. It took a few years of staying in Thailand, reading the daily news, and having long, political discussions with close Thai friends before I came upon a remarkable and truly distinctive difference in the way Thai and Westerners view relationships. Westerners are very much wedded to their way of judging people on their behavior i.e. 'are they moral enough or following the rules of moral behavior' to be my friend? Most Westerners, that I know, have standards that govern/control who they will allow to be their friend. I, myself, won't be friends with anyone who is unethical, even if they are not unethical with me. Most Westerners draw the line somewhere and if a friend/acquaintance steps over that line, the friendship is damaged or even ended. According to my experience, this is not a standard or metric that Thais employ when choosing and/or keeping friends. In Thai culture, loyalty, above all other attributes, defines how good a friend is. A Persian friend told me a story, that comes from Persia, that demonstrates this very well: "If you want to know who your true and good friends are, make a list of them and call each one of them at 3:30 in the morning (when they are deep asleep) and tell each one that you have accidentally killed someone and you require their help to dispose of the body without informing the police. The ones who show up at your door, ready to help, are your true friends as they are loyal and will always be your friend no matter what you do/did".

When the US, and other Western countries, get on their moral high-horse and condemn Thailand, they are not being a friend, to the Thai way of thinking, and cannot ever be trusted again to be a friend to Thailand. The West's stand: that principles are more important than relationships, is not known/understood by Thais and the relationship is damaged. Most Westerners, that I know, cannot get their head around the Thai principle that relationships are more important than what is right or wrong. It does, however explain a lot of Thai behavior. My best Thai friend, who used to work with Dr. Thaksin when they were both police officers, knows and acknowledges the faults of Dr. Thaksin but he, being an honorable man, honors the relationship he has with Dr. Thaksin and takes his side at every opportunity. This is what honorable Thai people do. I have learned to accept that and would help him dispose of a body in the middle of the night if he asked me to. I hope I have made this difference in concepts understandable; even if not acceptable.

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Certainly western powers are no saints when it comes to manipulating global politics. However, I think there is a basic understanding of the mechanics of Thai politics. In western democracies, the military is subservient to the elected government and it's main duty is to respond to issues of national defense. The differences in Thailand are obvious and glaring.

The first allegiance of the UK military is to the monarch, much the same I believe as Thailand.

It could be argued that the recent coup was a response to issues of national defence, The fact they were internal rather than external did not reduce the damage being done to the country.

Edit: Just saw the post by gchurch, pretty well the same thinking.

In most, if not all, democracies, martial law would be imposed by the executive branch of government to control situations that were beyond the capabilities of local law enforcement officials. The military would be acting in tandem with elected officials and local law enforcement authorities. In the UK, would the military have the unilateral right to impose martial law? Saw the pictures yesterday of Myanmar's Commander-in-Chief hugging Thailand's Supreme Commander. Thailand's Supreme commander said the Myanmar understood Thailand's problems because Myanmar had a similar situation in 1988. Makes it crystal clear to me what the Thai military thinks.

So if I think Pookiki's are ugly, stink and should be banned to Mars, then give a Pookiki a hug then that Pookiki thinks the same as me and is off to book a one way ticket to Mars. Strange Pookiki logic! Edited by Roadman
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Thailand"s foreign policy is to carefully manage close relations with both China and the United States.

Looking at Thailand through Western eyes as black or white, meaning that Thailand could be ally with China and lose the US as an ally is not going to happen.

If the US & the West are going to draw a line in the sand & say "you are with us or against us"? that approach won't be helpful.

The fact that Thailand chose to not support the Invasion of Iraq by the Western Coalition ( US led ) shows that Thailand wants & needs to keep the US at a distance

yet once Iraq was occupied Thailand contributed 423 non-combat troops in August 2003 to nation building and medical assistance as a balancing act to show the US that Thailand wasn't totally non-supportive.

To suggest that Thailand can or could be communist is total fiction.

If the US & the West think they can browbeat Thailand into submission they don't know Thai.

as the OP stated Thai feel they should solve their own problems & with the Military Junta having around a 80% approval rating support in Thailand is very strong.

Not inviting the Thai Military general to July 4th celebration at US embassy shows a lack of respect but most of all shows the Thai Military leader can't be bought.

I get the impression that many of the posters here know their way around a Thai bar but know very little or want to know about Thailand.

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