EDITORIAL
Thailand totters towards the AEC start line
The Nation

Our ageing society could lose out in the race with youthful regional partners when economic integration begins next year

BANGKOK: -- The starting pistol for the Asean Economic Community (AEC) is cocked and ready to fire next year. But make no mistake: This is a marathon, not a 100-metre sprint. As such, the "age" of the participants is crucial as the regional bloc prepares to set off on its next adventure.

That should trigger concern for Thailand, whose fast-growing "grey-collar worker" sector is second in size only to Singapore's in this region and will affect our competitiveness in the years to come.

Thailand and Singapore have been categorised as ageing societies since the 2000s, in contrast to Cambodia and Laos, which boast Asean's most youthful populations.

This demographic structure means that Laos and Cambodia ought to be more competitive in terms of workforce and manpower, while their ageing partners are likely to struggle.

Recent research has confirmed the scale of the difficulty Thailand will face. The birth rate has plunged from an average six children per woman in 1970 to 1.6 in 2013 - the second lowest in Southeast Asia after Singapore. The Singaporean government began taking action years ago, offering financial aid and incentives to encourage couples to have children. It realised that strong measures are needed to prevent the youth population from shrinking further.

In contrast, Thailand has not done enough to combat its ageing demographic. Despite the falling number of births, no concrete measures have been implemented. Upping the birth rate is an arduous and complex task, as authorities in Japan and Singapore have discovered. But, so far, no Thai government has seriously addressed the issue and its implications for our competitiveness in the AEC marathon.

And Thailand could be even more vulnerable than forecast.

We have suffered an even greater drop in births than either Singapore or Japan, and this has come at a time when we are already facing a shortage of workers, especially in labour-intensive industries. With local labour in such short supply, the number of migrant workers in Thailand has been spiralling upward in recent years, which has brought problems of its own for the government.

The labour shortage might be merely a short-term "symptom" of our ageing society, but what awaits Thailand is a lack of manpower in skilled professions that will hinder the country's economic growth. "Grey" workers will soon dominate both the white-collar and other sectors. The average age of farmers in Thailand is rising and has now reached 51. By 2019 another 5.4 per cent of our elderly population will enter the job market.

Future governments will need to take care of this growing "grey" population, initiating policies to address the issue, increasing the healthcare budget and beefing up infrastructure that caters to the needs of the elderly.

Governments might think they have enough on their plate with existing problems, but the "grey" future is coming and we need to prepare for it. Thailand must start now if it wants to keep up with its AEC counterparts. It must build an economy and institutions that can take care of an ageing society while at the same time drive growth.

Singapore has given itself a head start with measure to increase the birth rate, while Japan has begun adjusting its immigration policies and citizenship laws in a bid to lure highly skilled foreign professionals. Thailand can't afford to postpone action or pretend there is no problem. Measures will only follow if we have a clear-cut agenda. With or without the AEC, our ageing society is a major issue we have to face up to.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Thailand-totters-towards-the-AEC-start-line-30238061.html

-- The Nation 2014-07-09

The upcoming birth of a fully integrated ASEAN is indeed going to be a traumatic shock for Thailand which in reality is not even 20% prepared for the matter.

The handicap of a primitive education system, an attitude that demands that all revolves round Thailand, a protected busines sector which in many cases is unable to withstand and in fact unwilling to face external competetion regarding quality delivery times and price.

The current visa rules matter is in my view a knee jerk reaction to the conditions and rules that will prevail regarding a somewhat more relaxed system of labour personnel movement in the ASEAN group.

It was indeed interesting to note that the offices opened as a one stop service to register other nationalities primarily Asian were offering their services using allthe languages of ASEAN as well as English which as English is the working language of ASEAN was indeed a refreshing move.

Now considering the inability of the Thai's to actually either learn or comprehend English this birth is indeed going to a painful process and the resulantant offspring, ASEAN membership may well turn out in its early years to be a somewhat difficult child who like its parent (Thailand) will need special advice and educational help to be able to cope with the new closer knit family structure addition of ASEAN.

Being an ex Andrew man I would say that acknowledge and note that signal scribe ''Storm cones are being hoisted.''

We have suffered an even greater drop in births than either Singapore or Japan...

This can be easily sorted if people are allowed to post videos of their baby making attempts on Facebook.

AEC will be a damp squib. Every single nation involved has only its own interests at heart and will protect whatever they need to protect, no matter what the tarty actually says. You think Singapore is going to allow unrestricted immigration of workers from other countries? You think Indonesia will allow Malaysians on their oil rigs again? You think Thailand is going to allow foreign workers to take jobs that Thais might want?

No chance. Every nation will apply some special rules to suit them.

Is this the best EXCUSE Thailand has for being derelict in all areas and incompetent to compete with neighbors? The village I live is has many many many children and children having children is common. What I've seen there are enough young people.... but doubt they are educated/skilled in any way to compete w/ anyone outside of the village.

My wife had been a widow for nine years when i met her and she had no children, so asked her if she wanted any, because i didn't. I also asked her why she had no kids with her Thai husband and her reply was ''My husband would have not been a good father as he was drunk most of the time and played with other women. Also my education was very poor in Government system and i did not want child to suffer from that system if i could not afford good education ''

Sensible woman....that's why i married her.

"Upping the birth rate is an arduous and complex task. . . "

True (puff, pant), but we falangs are definitely, er, up for it! Feel better now about having helped my wife produce our first - and her sixth - child.

It's not the ageing.

Lets be politically incorrect for a moment and call the child by its name:
- Thailands corruption is rampant. Corruption does not harm the system but is obviously becoming the system itself.
- Thailand has among the poorest, absolutely brain-wrecking and equally corrupt education system.
- The absence of education results in flocks of ignorant voters whose opinion is only a matter of price and coloured photograph
- Thailand's caste system ensures that the Rich and Beautiful go untouched. It helps to have fancy vehicles, be it an Italian sports car in Thonglor wrecked by a energy-drink grandson or a pink Bentley - with compliments of an overseas friend

- Thailand needs to take decisions, playing the ball in the opposite corner does not get anywhere
- Long(er)-term decisions (i.e. education, infrastructure, utilities) need planning overlapping the average lifetime of a government cycle. Presently most decisions are overruled by the new incoming government in order for them to queue for pocket-lining.
- These plannings have to be undertaken by unbiased and qualified professionals; if not available onshore then get the expertise from overseas
- Thailand needs to accept and voice criticism, presently the preservation of the holy face blocks everything

Let's wait and see, on January 1st, 2016 absolutely nothing is going to happen but in ten, twenty years from now this will be a different place - guaranteed. Question is only, will it be better, will Thailand have arrived at the 21st century or not. Up to Thais, up to Thailand.

The forth coming AEC in 2015, will surely be a huge kick up the jacksy for Thailand.

It will become the land of grimace, not smile.

Such a great shame, as there are so many hard working, and talented people in this country, that have been sold out by previous Governments.

Thailands extremely poor education system will not give the children of the future any chance at all when competeing with the kids from Singapore Etc

A criminal waste of so much talent and enthusiam

Ageing is the least of the worries

-*I typed this myself*-

The upcoming birth of a fully integrated ASEAN is indeed going to be a traumatic shock for Thailand which in reality is not even 20% prepared for the matter.

The handicap of a primitive education system, an attitude that demands that all revolves round Thailand, a protected busines sector which in many cases is unable to withstand and in fact unwilling to face external competetion regarding quality delivery times and price.

The current visa rules matter is in my view a knee jerk reaction to the conditions and rules that will prevail regarding a somewhat more relaxed system of labour personnel movement in the ASEAN group.

It was indeed interesting to note that the offices opened as a one stop service to register other nationalities primarily Asian were offering their services using allthe languages of ASEAN as well as English which as English is the working language of ASEAN was indeed a refreshing move.

Now considering the inability of the Thai's to actually either learn or comprehend English this birth is indeed going to a painful process and the resulantant offspring, ASEAN membership may well turn out in its early years to be a somewhat difficult child who like its parent (Thailand) will need special advice and educational help to be able to cope with the new closer knit family structure addition of ASEAN.

Being an ex Andrew man I would say that acknowledge and note that signal scribe ''Storm cones are being hoisted.''

Agree 100%. The demography is a long-term problem while the inability to communicate in English or other ASEAN languages is a much more serious and immediate problem. Ditto wider skills base lacks and uncompetitive SME segment.

If you deny the real problems, the possibility of arriving at solutions is remote.