Meteorological Dept predicts heavy rainfall in certain parts of Thailand

[webfact]

Meteorological Department predicts heavy rainfall in certain parts of the country

BANGKOK, 29 July 2014 (NNT) - The Meteorological Department has forecasted that Thailand’s northern, upper northeastern, and southwestern regions are set to face heavy rains.

A rather strong southwestern monsoon covering the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand along with a low pressure cell covering the Gulf of Tonkin in Vietnam would bring scattered rainstorms throughout 40 to 70 percent of the country.

Waves are expected to reach 2 meters in the Andaman Sea. Fishermen are advised to take caution before setting sail.

Bangkok and its suburbs, meanwhile, are set to face a 70 percent chance of rain. Temperatures are expected to hover around 25-27 degrees Celsius at the minimum and 32-33 degrees Celsius at the maximum.

[nnt]2014-07-29[/nnt]

[bkkjames]

I can confirm 100% in Bangkok at the moment.

[lostinisaan]

 Saw that on the news this morning and it seems that the Isaan won't get hurt like some places last year. 

[Captain_Bob]

I'm also at least 70% sure it might rain in the middle of rainy season. Thank you TMD for the awesome warning. 

[smileplur]

Yeah, pretty spot-on for Bangkok.  I can't even hear the TV or speak to the missus .... The rain is too damn loud.  This might not be a bad thing!

 

[mojorison]

I'm also at least 70% sure it might rain in the middle of rainy season. Thank you TMD for the awesome warning. 

It is not the middle of the wet season. Southwest Monsoon runs between July and September. Southeast Monsoon runs from October into New year. So it is only "wet season" on the west coast. The Southwest monsoon is also by far the lesser of the 2 monsoonal systems. It is known historically as the "Trade winds". The southeast monsoon devastates huge tracts of SE Asia, and is responsible for pushing the Chao Phrayah river back up its source leading to flooding in BKK that can last for the 3 months of the SE monsoon. Usually, the SW monsoon is associated with merely poor or patchy weather in the central, eastern and northern areas. But not in all cases, as this article pertains to, and if I recall correctly, about 4 years ago the south flood badly OUT OF SEASON.

[ChrisY1]

Yeah, pretty spot-on for Bangkok.  I can't even hear the TV or speak to the missus .... The rain is too damn loud.  This might not be a bad thing!

 

 

Sometimes, heavy rain can be a blessing..

[outsider]

Cooler weather welcome, although this will make it difficult to swim at dawn... brrrr...

[Gunna]

 

I'm also at least 70% sure it might rain in the middle of rainy season. Thank you TMD for the awesome warning. 

It is not the middle of the wet season. Southwest Monsoon runs between July and September. Southeast Monsoon runs from October into New year. So it is only "wet season" on the west coast. The Southwest monsoon is also by far the lesser of the 2 monsoonal systems. It is known historically as the "Trade winds". The southeast monsoon devastates huge tracts of SE Asia, and is responsible for pushing the Chao Phrayah river back up its source leading to flooding in BKK that can last for the 3 months of the SE monsoon. Usually, the SW monsoon is associated with merely poor or patchy weather in the central, eastern and northern areas. But not in all cases, as this article pertains to, and if I recall correctly, about 4 years ago the south flood badly OUT OF SEASON.

 

It would appear from this rainfall table that the end of July is right in the middle of the rainy season for Bangkok and Changmai, but the next 3 months are usually wetter

So I also predict some heavy down pours for the next 3 months with local flooding

Average
rainfall (mm) Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Bangkok 11 28 31 72 190 152 158 187 320 231 57 9 Chiang Mai 8 6 15 45 153 136 167 227 251 132 44 15

[mojorison]

 

 

I'm also at least 70% sure it might rain in the middle of rainy season. Thank you TMD for the awesome warning. 

It is not the middle of the wet season. Southwest Monsoon runs between July and September. Southeast Monsoon runs from October into New year. So it is only "wet season" on the west coast. The Southwest monsoon is also by far the lesser of the 2 monsoonal systems. It is known historically as the "Trade winds". The southeast monsoon devastates huge tracts of SE Asia, and is responsible for pushing the Chao Phrayah river back up its source leading to flooding in BKK that can last for the 3 months of the SE monsoon. Usually, the SW monsoon is associated with merely poor or patchy weather in the central, eastern and northern areas. But not in all cases, as this article pertains to, and if I recall correctly, about 4 years ago the south flood badly OUT OF SEASON.

 

It would appear from this rainfall table that the end of July is right in the middle of the rainy season for Bangkok and Changmai, but the next 3 months are usually wetter

So I also predict some heavy down pours for the next 3 months with local flooding

Average
rainfall (mm) Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Bangkok 11 28 31 72 190 152 158 187 320 231 57 9 Chiang Mai 8 6 15 45 153 136 167 227 251 132 44 15

 

Those figures you've provided pretty well validate my point. Thank you.

[nauseus]

 

I'm also at least 70% sure it might rain in the middle of rainy season. Thank you TMD for the awesome warning. 

It is not the middle of the wet season. Southwest Monsoon runs between July and September. Southeast Monsoon runs from October into New year. So it is only "wet season" on the west coast. The Southwest monsoon is also by far the lesser of the 2 monsoonal systems. It is known historically as the "Trade winds". The southeast monsoon devastates huge tracts of SE Asia, and is responsible for pushing the Chao Phrayah river back up its source leading to flooding in BKK that can last for the 3 months of the SE monsoon. Usually, the SW monsoon is associated with merely poor or patchy weather in the central, eastern and northern areas. But not in all cases, as this article pertains to, and if I recall correctly, about 4 years ago the south flood badly OUT OF SEASON.

 

 

You have most of this all wrong but it sounds convincing!

[Queenslander]

Absolutely bucketing down in Pak Thong Chai area…so good for the rice crops!!

[SantiSuk]

 

I'm also at least 70% sure it might rain in the middle of rainy season. Thank you TMD for the awesome warning. 

It is not the middle of the wet season. Southwest Monsoon runs between July and September. Southeast Monsoon runs from October into New year. So it is only "wet season" on the west coast. The Southwest monsoon is also by far the lesser of the 2 monsoonal systems. It is known historically as the "Trade winds". The southeast monsoon devastates huge tracts of SE Asia, and is responsible for pushing the Chao Phrayah river back up its source leading to flooding in BKK that can last for the 3 months of the SE monsoon. Usually, the SW monsoon is associated with merely poor or patchy weather in the central, eastern and northern areas. But not in all cases, as this article pertains to, and if I recall correctly, about 4 years ago the south flood badly OUT OF SEASON.

 

 

My guess is that you are reporting for Thailand, based on experience of living in Phuket or Samui, Mojorison.

 

The southeast monsoon might devastate huge tracts of SE Asia but I'm not sure it has any effect on Thailand. Most of the weather websites talk about a Northeast monsoon not south east and it is this monsoon that swings down from China in October to January and can swing around in the Andamman Sea picking up rain to dump on southern and western Thailand. Its effect on Northeastern Thailand and to some extent northern Thailand and Central Plains is much more limited. As the other posters rain numbers show, it is the southwest monsoon that creates the flooding damage in these parts and things are nearly always pretty dry again (talking rainfall not ground water) by November/December. Sometimes even the 2nd half of October shows significantly less rain. Sure the flooding in the Central Plains and Bangkok does often continue into late months of the year - but that is mostly hang-over and run-off from the North, not rainfall.

 

I don't know much about the cycles in the South of Thailand, Phuket/Samui, but I was disappointed to be completely washed out in Phuket for a week in March/April 2011 - all land contact with the North was lost for 2 days. Maybe that was the late running (very late?) Southeast monsoon of which you speak and maybe a southeast monsoon does affect the southern half of Thailand but doesn't register in the summary climate websites that address Thailand nationally. There are, after all, lots of subsidiary weather cycles that impact locally and don't make it to nation-wide summaries. Here in Lower Isaan and Eastern Isaan we are also impacted by the tail end of typhoons that start around the Philippines and come in from the east over Vietnam. We also seem to get rain storms coming in from the southeast over Cambodia (which I think also afflict South eastern Thailand). Both of those happen during the southwest monsoon season. 
 

Edited July 30, 2014 by SantiSuk

[spidermike007]

There are only two jobs available, where you are paid good money, to be wrong two thirds of the time. That is meteorology, and baseball. You can miss two thirds of the balls you try to hit in baseball, and be considered one of the games great hitters, earning a salary of several million dollars per year. With weather, it is astonishing, with all the technology they have, how often they are wrong. This is monsoon season. Of course there will be heavy rainfall. But, why hire a highly trained man or woman, to come to this same conclusion makes me wonder. 

[mojorison]

 

 

I'm also at least 70% sure it might rain in the middle of rainy season. Thank you TMD for the awesome warning. 

It is not the middle of the wet season. Southwest Monsoon runs between July and September. Southeast Monsoon runs from October into New year. So it is only "wet season" on the west coast. The Southwest monsoon is also by far the lesser of the 2 monsoonal systems. It is known historically as the "Trade winds". The southeast monsoon devastates huge tracts of SE Asia, and is responsible for pushing the Chao Phrayah river back up its source leading to flooding in BKK that can last for the 3 months of the SE monsoon. Usually, the SW monsoon is associated with merely poor or patchy weather in the central, eastern and northern areas. But not in all cases, as this article pertains to, and if I recall correctly, about 4 years ago the south flood badly OUT OF SEASON.

 

 

My guess is that you are reporting for Thailand, based on experience of living in Phuket or Samui, Mojorison.

 

The southeast monsoon might devastate huge tracts of SE Asia but I'm not sure it has any effect on Thailand. Most of the weather websites talk about a Northeast monsoon not south east and it is this monsoon that swings down from China in October to January and can swing around in the Andamman Sea picking up rain to dump on southern and western Thailand. Its effect on Northeastern Thailand and to some extent northern Thailand and Central Plains is much more limited. As the other posters rain numbers show, it is the southwest monsoon that creates the flooding damage in these parts and things are nearly always pretty dry again (talking rainfall not ground water) by November/December. Sometimes even the 2nd half of October shows significantly less rain. Sure the flooding in the Central Plains and Bangkok does often continue into late months of the year - but that is mostly hang-over and run-off from the North, not rainfall.

 

I don't know much about the cycles in the South of Thailand, Phuket/Samui, but I was disappointed to be completely washed out in Phuket for a week in March/April 2011 - all land contact with the North was lost for 2 days. Maybe that was the late running (very late?) Southeast monsoon of which you speak and maybe a southeast monsoon does affect the southern half of Thailand but doesn't register in the summary climate websites that address Thailand nationally. There are, after all, lots of subsidiary weather cycles that impact locally and don't make it to nation-wide summaries. Here in Lower Isaan and Eastern Isaan we are also impacted by the tail end of typhoons that start around the Philippines and come in from the east over Vietnam. We also seem to get rain storms coming in from the southeast over Cambodia (which I think also afflict South eastern Thailand). Both of those happen during the southwest monsoon season. 
 

 

The second paragraph of the article in the OP, refers to the south west monsoon. Hence my post. Like you say, the weather conditions and seasonal variations will be different depending where you are... but the article as is refers to this system, which is in full swing at the moment. The south east systems do the damage in BKK from OCT- JAN... and that's because the lovely Chao Phraya flows into the Gulf, and not the Andaman and the storm surge prevents the stinking river from draining. Most of these tropical storm systems are manifested equatorially, and are strongest closer to the equator... so although you'll get crap weather up north, you are far less likely to get the cyclones (or typhoons) that do the real damage. Sure you'll get flooding, but you won't get your homes ripped out of the ground and turned upside down.

[Captain_Bob]

Rainy season for most of Thailand and SE Asia is May-Oct, so July is in the middle. The exception is lower Gulf of Thailand which is sheltered from the SW monsoon and tends to be wetter Nov-Feb. 

[AGareth2]

it is the rainy season!

[MaxLee]

https://twitter.com/francis99l/status/495504836519927810

https://twitter.com/francis99l/status/495504836519927810

That was happening at BTS bearing yesterday after I came back from work... It was quite a blasty-nasty wet at Sukhumvit Bearing.

My bet as usual is to watch out for August, September and climax October.

No matter which party rules... Not much will be done again in extreme cases... Wanna bet? Edited August 2, 2014 by MaxLee