First car deal defaults jump 25 folds: Thai Excise Dept

[thailiketoo]

Any bank would gladly take over this kind of loan portfolio, even with all of those 12000 defaulting. That is less than one percent of 1.6 million. The first (pickup) car increases greatly the business opportunities and income for your average Somchai. Instead of hauling stuff with 15 year old rusty motorbike from a local market, he can fill up more into his pickup from multiple locations.

Strange that still have avoided to answer the question as to why Thai people default a lot on normal car finances, but not on the car finance from the first car rebate.

At the end it are the very same Thai people.

Let me whisper the secret in your ear, don't tell anyone ok. They are using the 100.000 Baht for their monthly installments. Now wait till that 100.000 has evaporated.

Finally, someone with common sense.

No data, no numbers only spurious anti government accusations.

[JesseFrank]

That is the current default rate.

Let me make this clear to you.

It will not be the future default rate. The future default rate will be around 5%, that will be in 2 years.

Nonsense post. You have no data or educated opinions that support this statement. I think making inflammatory statements (5% default rate) should be removed. It is like spreading a rumor that the sun won't rise in the morning. Some nut out there might actually believe you and hurt himself. A 5% default rate would have serious consequences to the economy and your rumormongering should be stopped unless you have some evidence to support your statement.

Instead of rebuking the opinion of the majority of posters here, why don't you give us a plausible explanation as to why the default rate on the rebate scheme should be lower than on regular finances ?

[thailiketoo]

That is the current default rate.

Let me make this clear to you.

It will not be the future default rate. The future default rate will be around 5%, that will be in 2 years.

Nonsense post. You have no data or educated opinions that support this statement. I think making inflammatory statements (5% default rate) should be removed. It is like spreading a rumor that the sun won't rise in the morning. Some nut out there might actually believe you and hurt himself. A 5% default rate would have serious consequences to the economy and your rumormongering should be stopped unless you have some evidence to support your statement.

Instead of rebuking the opinion of the majority of posters here, why don't you give us a plausible explanation as to why the default rate on the rebate scheme should be lower than on regular finances ?

The majority of the posters are not discussing or debating. They are posting anti government nonsense that they post over and over again. Same posters same stuff. Thai government lies. Thai government can't trust the figures. Tourism numbers are lies. Stuff that has nothing to do with the OP.

Why do you say that the default rate on the rebate scheme is lower than on regular finances? What is the default rate of regular finances?

[JesseFrank]

That is the current default rate.

Let me make this clear to you.

It will not be the future default rate. The future default rate will be around 5%, that will be in 2 years.

Nonsense post. You have no data or educated opinions that support this statement. I think making inflammatory statements (5% default rate) should be removed. It is like spreading a rumor that the sun won't rise in the morning. Some nut out there might actually believe you and hurt himself. A 5% default rate would have serious consequences to the economy and your rumormongering should be stopped unless you have some evidence to support your statement.

Instead of rebuking the opinion of the majority of posters here, why don't you give us a plausible explanation as to why the default rate on the rebate scheme should be lower than on regular finances ?

The majority of the posters are not discussing or debating. They are posting anti government nonsense that they post over and over again. Same posters same stuff. Thai government lies. Thai government can't trust the figures. Tourism numbers are lies. Stuff that has nothing to do with the OP.

Why do you say that the default rate on the rebate scheme is lower than on regular finances? What is the default rate of regular finances?

I don't know the exact failure rate, it is you who the guy with the statistics and graphs. But when I see that there are weekly new auctions of repossessed cars in my area, and so are there in all major cities in Thailand, then it must be much higher than 500 cars a year. I know a single location in Pattaya where there are constantly a few hundred repossessed cars parked.

And since you claim that the rebate scheme has such a good response with over 1 million cars sold, then I doubt that there are more than 1 million regular car finances every year.

[northernjohn]

How could you possibly think your anecdotal evidence trumps hard facts. 500 people defaulted. Not some number you made up based on a few folks you know in Issan. If you want to make the case that you can't trust any numbers from the Thai or other governments OK but it's not accepted by the people who run the world (IMF, World bank, UN and so on). If you know more than all those people surly you could get a job as a top economist making millions a year.

Well to be fair a healthy amount of skepticism when looking at statistics is ok. I'm an economist and look at a lot of data every day, be it GDP growth data, CPI inflation and so on and sometimes it's worth wile to question whether what you see make sense. Let me give you an example. If a country has flat growth on electricity consumption and the government publishes more than 7% GDP growth, you have to be skeptical whether the government published data is accurate. I can give you many more examples.

Now in this case, I'm not saying 500 is wrong, but I am saying I'm skeptical whether this number is accurate on the basis that

a) say if 50% of the 1,000,000 (first time buyer scheme) took out a loan, the 500 defaults ytd would be 0.05% ytd and maybe about 0.1% on annualised.

looking at car auctions just in my province, the amount of reposessed cars being auctioned are a lot higher, just for 1 province. As I said, Chiang Mai alone is about 500 per month/6000 vehicles per year. Now this includes second hand and obviously cars not from this scheme.

Maybe I'm not reading this article correctly or I'm missing something else.

What you are missing is if they default the government gets the money back. So it is in the interest of the government to have you default. You default they get the incentive money back. What is the government incentive to understate the number? They have every reason to overstate it.

The 500 defaults is nothing. What about the 12,000 several months behind deals. that is not a government figure. I can only imagine how many are only behind by one month soon to be two. This is just the tip of the ice berg.

[thailiketoo]

Instead of rebuking the opinion of the majority of posters here, why don't you give us a plausible explanation as to why the default rate on the rebate scheme should be lower than on regular finances ?

The majority of the posters are not discussing or debating. They are posting anti government nonsense that they post over and over again. Same posters same stuff. Thai government lies. Thai government can't trust the figures. Tourism numbers are lies. Stuff that has nothing to do with the OP.

Why do you say that the default rate on the rebate scheme is lower than on regular finances? What is the default rate of regular finances?

I don't know the exact failure rate, it is you who the guy with the statistics and graphs. But when I see that there are weekly new auctions of repossessed cars in my area, and so are there in all major cities in Thailand, then it must be much higher than 500 cars a year. I know a single location in Pattaya where there are constantly a few hundred repossessed cars parked.

And since you claim that the rebate scheme has such a good response with over 1 million cars sold, then I doubt that there are more than 1 million regular car finances every year.

That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence. Do some research and come back. I would suggest asking Mr Somchai Poonsawat, director-general of Excise Department.

[northernjohn]

The first car buyers programme was always going to end in disaster. There will be 50,000 - 100,000+ defaulters in this scheme

If only 500 defaulted it is a rousing success not a disaster. Better check your math.

Indeed, only 0.05% defaulted and over 1 million cars are sold. The only negative effects are that the prices on the 2nd hand market are down and after the promotion the car sales are lower than normal.

That is the current default rate.

Let me make this clear to you.

It will not be the future default rate. The future default rate will be around 5%, that will be in 2 years.

That figure could be low. Some people got raises that wound up with them bringing home less money due to having to pay their own social 500 baht a month and also a cut in overtime. Plus some lost other perks that they had. But the cost of living is still rising and will never stop.

[thailiketoo]

How could you possibly think your anecdotal evidence trumps hard facts. 500 people defaulted. Not some number you made up based on a few folks you know in Issan. If you want to make the case that you can't trust any numbers from the Thai or other governments OK but it's not accepted by the people who run the world (IMF, World bank, UN and so on). If you know more than all those people surly you could get a job as a top economist making millions a year.

Well to be fair a healthy amount of skepticism when looking at statistics is ok. I'm an economist and look at a lot of data every day, be it GDP growth data, CPI inflation and so on and sometimes it's worth wile to question whether what you see make sense. Let me give you an example. If a country has flat growth on electricity consumption and the government publishes more than 7% GDP growth, you have to be skeptical whether the government published data is accurate. I can give you many more examples.

Now in this case, I'm not saying 500 is wrong, but I am saying I'm skeptical whether this number is accurate on the basis that

a) say if 50% of the 1,000,000 (first time buyer scheme) took out a loan, the 500 defaults ytd would be 0.05% ytd and maybe about 0.1% on annualised.

looking at car auctions just in my province, the amount of reposessed cars being auctioned are a lot higher, just for 1 province. As I said, Chiang Mai alone is about 500 per month/6000 vehicles per year. Now this includes second hand and obviously cars not from this scheme.

Maybe I'm not reading this article correctly or I'm missing something else.

What you are missing is if they default the government gets the money back. So it is in the interest of the government to have you default. You default they get the incentive money back. What is the government incentive to understate the number? They have every reason to overstate it.

The 500 defaults is nothing. What about the 12,000 several months behind deals. that is not a government figure. I can only imagine how many are only behind by one month soon to be two. This is just the tip of the ice berg.

You wrote, "What about the 12,000 several months behind deals. that is not a government figure."

From the OP, "Mr Somchai Poonsawat, director-general of Excise Department. He added that there are over 12,000 cases at risk of defaults and their cars seized by leasing companies after the car buyers under the government-sponsored first-car purchase programme have failed to pay several instalments."

Yes it is a government figure and it is still hardly large enough to count when considering 1.06 million involved in purchases.

[thailiketoo]

If only 500 defaulted it is a rousing success not a disaster. Better check your math.

Indeed, only 0.05% defaulted and over 1 million cars are sold. The only negative effects are that the prices on the 2nd hand market are down and after the promotion the car sales are lower than normal.

That is the current default rate.

Let me make this clear to you.

It will not be the future default rate. The future default rate will be around 5%, that will be in 2 years.

That figure could be low. Some people got raises that wound up with them bringing home less money due to having to pay their own social 500 baht a month and also a cut in overtime. Plus some lost other perks that they had. But the cost of living is still rising and will never stop.

The percent you are quoting is mentioned by a person with no formal training beyond (I think 8th grade but I'll wait for the poster to confirm or clarify). Hardly a reputable source. If you have any accurate data supporting your view please post it. As far as this thread is concerned the only accurate number of defaults affirmed is 500 of more than a million. Anything is a product of imagination and not reality.

[JesseFrank]

Instead of rebuking the opinion of the majority of posters here, why don't you give us a plausible explanation as to why the default rate on the rebate scheme should be lower than on regular finances ?

The majority of the posters are not discussing or debating. They are posting anti government nonsense that they post over and over again. Same posters same stuff. Thai government lies. Thai government can't trust the figures. Tourism numbers are lies. Stuff that has nothing to do with the OP.

Why do you say that the default rate on the rebate scheme is lower than on regular finances? What is the default rate of regular finances?

I don't know the exact failure rate, it is you who the guy with the statistics and graphs. But when I see that there are weekly new auctions of repossessed cars in my area, and so are there in all major cities in Thailand, then it must be much higher than 500 cars a year. I know a single location in Pattaya where there are constantly a few hundred repossessed cars parked.

And since you claim that the rebate scheme has such a good response with over 1 million cars sold, then I doubt that there are more than 1 million regular car finances every year.

That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence. Do some research and come back. I would suggest asking Mr Somchai Poonsawat, director-general of Excise Department.

So you want to say that the single location in Pattaya where there are several hundred repossessed cars stored at all time, and which are "refreshed" every week, are a lie ? Or do you want to say that this is the location where the whole of Thailand stores their repossessed cars.

How do you explain the tens of auctions all over Thailand on a weekly base ? How they do that with only 500 cars available each year ?

[thailiketoo]

I don't know the exact failure rate, it is you who the guy with the statistics and graphs. But when I see that there are weekly new auctions of repossessed cars in my area, and so are there in all major cities in Thailand, then it must be much higher than 500 cars a year. I know a single location in Pattaya where there are constantly a few hundred repossessed cars parked.

And since you claim that the rebate scheme has such a good response with over 1 million cars sold, then I doubt that there are more than 1 million regular car finances every year.

That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence. Do some research and come back. I would suggest asking Mr Somchai Poonsawat, director-general of Excise Department.

So you want to say that the single location in Pattaya where there are several hundred repossessed cars stored at all time, and which are "refreshed" every week, are a lie ? Or do you want to say that this is the location where the whole of Thailand stores their repossessed cars.

How do you explain the tens of auctions all over Thailand on a weekly base ? How they do that with only 500 cars available each year ?

All of the visa runners have to sell their cars and go home.

[JesseFrank]

I don't know the exact failure rate, it is you who the guy with the statistics and graphs. But when I see that there are weekly new auctions of repossessed cars in my area, and so are there in all major cities in Thailand, then it must be much higher than 500 cars a year. I know a single location in Pattaya where there are constantly a few hundred repossessed cars parked.

And since you claim that the rebate scheme has such a good response with over 1 million cars sold, then I doubt that there are more than 1 million regular car finances every year.

That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence. Do some research and come back. I would suggest asking Mr Somchai Poonsawat, director-general of Excise Department.

So you want to say that the single location in Pattaya where there are several hundred repossessed cars stored at all time, and which are "refreshed" every week, are a lie ? Or do you want to say that this is the location where the whole of Thailand stores their repossessed cars.

How do you explain the tens of auctions all over Thailand on a weekly base ? How they do that with only 500 cars available each year ?

All of the visa runners have to sell their cars and go home.

Look up the word repossessed., nothing to do with people selling their cars.

That location is there for years already, haven't passed lately, but knowing the condition of the current Thai economy they may have well expanded.

[jaidam]

Is there any promise that the PTP made that actually worked n the countries favour?

Just wondering??

What promise did PTP make to the 500 people who defaulted on car loans?

Just wondering?

That they would all be rich within 6 months would be the most relevant silly promise. The newly rich car buyers wouldn't be defaulting on a car loan now would they?

[Aldebaran1981]

Most thai people are just too opulent and spend way beyond their means. It's almost the same as the US govt. spend and spend and spend....

They deserve to have their cars repossessed for jumping in stupidly to buy a new car which was way out of their means

[BSJ]

I know where the banks store their repos in Pattaya. I have a look between the sheets of tin on the fence to see what's in there. At a rough guess 250 to 400 cars and pick-ups most of the time but the stock is moving in and out regularly.

One day I went past and there was 10 semi trailer car transports there. The stock moves! The banks want their money back.

And how many of the cars would be first buyer cars......never seen one yet that would qualify.

[nosstit]

Yet another failed Shinawatra scheme scam

[chooka]

So that means all the populist policies have failed,but some people

made a lot of money out of them, so thats OK?.

regards Worgeordie

Why failed?

Because 500 out of million can not pay the monthly payments?

People are responsible for their own finances. Can't blame anyone else if they purchase something they know very well they can't afford.

[daveAustin]

Look on the bright side, that's 500 fewer vehicles on these nutty roads

[daveAustin]

that means it was a big succes if only 500 people do not meet payments....

they have sold over a million of cars.

again big succes!

I wouldn't jump the gun. It's 500 up from 10-20, possibly up to 12,000... now! Give it time as people who live in a tin shack that never should have had that car find it tougher and tougher to pay. Reckon more like 20% of the total. The only 'success' in this scheme was in getting a certain name elected!!!

[GinBoy2]

So again I'm struggling,simple as I am. Scam, corruption a lot of you say that over and over again, maybe saying it enough makes it true here in Thailand.

It was a stupid policy, as was cash for clunkers in the US, bailing out Greece with billions of $, piling money into GM, and the multitude of old car scrappage programs throughout Europe. But stupid doesn't equate to scam. It was a tax rebate, it was the banks/finance companies that lent the money, not the government. If the financing company was too lazy, or too incompetent to do due diligence on the lending criteria tough luck.

If their lending criteria included having the tax rebate in order to pay the rest of the loan, I'm going with incompetent.

Edited August 17, 2014 by GinBoy2

[JesseFrank]

I know where the banks store their repos in Pattaya. I have a look between the sheets of tin on the fence to see what's in there. At a rough guess 250 to 400 cars and pick-ups most of the time but the stock is moving in and out regularly.

One day I went past and there was 10 semi trailer car transports there. The stock moves! The banks want their money back.

And how many of the cars would be first buyer cars......never seen one yet that would qualify.

That is the place I'm talking about in my previous posts, but according to Thaiiliketoo it are all cars sold by foreigners who can't do visa runs anymore

[thailiketoo]

Yet another failed Shinawatra scheme scam

With only 500 defaults it was a rousing success.

[thailiketoo]

that means it was a big succes if only 500 people do not meet payments....

they have sold over a million of cars.

again big succes!

I wouldn't jump the gun. It's 500 up from 10-20, possibly up to 12,000... now! Give it time as people who live in a tin shack that never should have had that car find it tougher and tougher to pay. Reckon more like 20% of the total. The only 'success' in this scheme was in getting a certain name elected!!!

Nonsense post. How do you reckon 20%? It's been 500 in the past year. Are you psychic? Maybe you should read the OP. The reporter tried to make it look bad but facts are facts 500 is still 500. A million people involved and 500 defaulted. They like their new cars. They are first time buyers. They went out and got a job. How is that so surprising? Didn't you do it when you were a kid? I did. I wanted a car so I got my first job to buy my first car. Thais are no different.

[thailiketoo]

So again I'm struggling,simple as I am. Scam, corruption a lot of you say that over and over again, maybe saying it enough makes it true here in Thailand.

It was a stupid policy, as was cash for clunkers in the US, bailing out Greece with billions of $, piling money into GM, and the multitude of old car scrappage programs throughout Europe. But stupid doesn't equate to scam. It was a tax rebate, it was the banks/finance companies that lent the money, not the government. If the financing company was too lazy, or too incompetent to do due diligence on the lending criteria tough luck.

If their lending criteria included having the tax rebate in order to pay the rest of the loan, I'm going with incompetent.

Tell me what bank would not take a 500 out of a million failure rate? That's not, not doing due diligence. That is great diligence. The lending criteria did not use the tax rebate as income.

[thailiketoo]

I know where the banks store their repos in Pattaya. I have a look between the sheets of tin on the fence to see what's in there. At a rough guess 250 to 400 cars and pick-ups most of the time but the stock is moving in and out regularly.

One day I went past and there was 10 semi trailer car transports there. The stock moves! The banks want their money back.

And how many of the cars would be first buyer cars......never seen one yet that would qualify.

That is the place I'm talking about in my previous posts, but according to Thaiiliketoo it are all cars sold by foreigners who can't do visa runs anymore

Boyo you aren't reading. Who cares where the cars came from. They are not from first time buyers scheme there are only 500 of those. Logically thinking the majority would be in Bangkok. Who knows where the bank ships them.

[ginjag]

Yet another failed Shinawatra scheme scam

With only 500 defaults it was a rousing success.

Are you sure, Have you mentioned it before ????? was it 500 or I don't remember keep reminding me.

[GinBoy2]

So again I'm struggling,simple as I am. Scam, corruption a lot of you say that over and over again, maybe saying it enough makes it true here in Thailand.

It was a stupid policy, as was cash for clunkers in the US, bailing out Greece with billions of $, piling money into GM, and the multitude of old car scrappage programs throughout Europe. But stupid doesn't equate to scam. It was a tax rebate, it was the banks/finance companies that lent the money, not the government. If the financing company was too lazy, or too incompetent to do due diligence on the lending criteria tough luck.

If their lending criteria included having the tax rebate in order to pay the rest of the loan, I'm going with incompetent.

Tell me what bank would not take a 500 out of a million failure rate? That's not, not doing due diligence. That is great diligence. The lending criteria did not use the tax rebate as income.

I was merely trying, unsuccessfully it seems, to point out that the various posters who keep reiterating the same old tired Shin corruption/scam story aren't addressing the issue at all. 'IF' there is a problem with defaults thats nothing to do with the government, its an issue between the lender and the borrower. I don't have a lot of faith in any these kind of stimulus programs anywhere in the world, but constantly trying to turn it into something it's not, gets old

[JesseFrank]

I know where the banks store their repos in Pattaya. I have a look between the sheets of tin on the fence to see what's in there. At a rough guess 250 to 400 cars and pick-ups most of the time but the stock is moving in and out regularly.

One day I went past and there was 10 semi trailer car transports there. The stock moves! The banks want their money back.

And how many of the cars would be first buyer cars......never seen one yet that would qualify.

That is the place I'm talking about in my previous posts, but according to Thaiiliketoo it are all cars sold by foreigners who can't do visa runs anymore

Boyo you aren't reading. Who cares where the cars came from. They are not from first time buyers scheme there are only 500 of those. Logically thinking the majority would be in Bangkok. Who knows where the bank ships them.

Boyo, you keep talking in circles. Earlier you say there is no evidence that the failure rate on normal car finances is much higher than 500 a year. Now that another poster has confirmed my posts about the huge amount of repos in Pattaya alone, keep in mind that there are another 76 provinces in Thailand with similar parking lots, it is on you to tell us why the failure rate on the first car rebate would be so much lower while it are the exact same consumers.

Now don't come back and tell us to ask Mr Somchai, because it is a fact that government officials dream up figures in Thailand, I have delivered the proof of that in an earlier post already.

Just give us a plausible reason as why a Thai person would not default on their first car rebate finance, but would do on a regular car finance, as is proven over and over already.

Edited August 17, 2014 by JesseFrank

[thailiketoo]

So again I'm struggling,simple as I am. Scam, corruption a lot of you say that over and over again, maybe saying it enough makes it true here in Thailand.

It was a stupid policy, as was cash for clunkers in the US, bailing out Greece with billions of $, piling money into GM, and the multitude of old car scrappage programs throughout Europe. But stupid doesn't equate to scam. It was a tax rebate, it was the banks/finance companies that lent the money, not the government. If the financing company was too lazy, or too incompetent to do due diligence on the lending criteria tough luck.

If their lending criteria included having the tax rebate in order to pay the rest of the loan, I'm going with incompetent.

Tell me what bank would not take a 500 out of a million failure rate? That's not, not doing due diligence. That is great diligence. The lending criteria did not use the tax rebate as income.

I was merely trying, unsuccessfully it seems, to point out that the various posters who keep reiterating the same old tired Shin corruption/scam story aren't addressing the issue at all. 'IF' there is a problem with defaults thats nothing to do with the government, its an issue between the lender and the borrower. I don't have a lot of faith in any these kind of stimulus programs anywhere in the world, but constantly trying to turn it into something it's not, gets old

If the thread was about the same old tired Shin corruption/scam story that would be cool. You and your fellows use every new thread to push the same old tired anti Shin propaganda. Get over it. They are gone and will stay gone as long as the Thai people are not allowed to vote. We all get it.

This topic is about auto defaults which are a very small number that the reporter is trying to put a negative spin on. One would think there is enough there to hang your hat on.

Edited August 17, 2014 by thailiketoo

[GinBoy2]

So again I'm struggling,simple as I am. Scam, corruption a lot of you say that over and over again, maybe saying it enough makes it true here in Thailand.

It was a stupid policy, as was cash for clunkers in the US, bailing out Greece with billions of $, piling money into GM, and the multitude of old car scrappage programs throughout Europe. But stupid doesn't equate to scam. It was a tax rebate, it was the banks/finance companies that lent the money, not the government. If the financing company was too lazy, or too incompetent to do due diligence on the lending criteria tough luck.

If their lending criteria included having the tax rebate in order to pay the rest of the loan, I'm going with incompetent.

Tell me what bank would not take a 500 out of a million failure rate? That's not, not doing due diligence. That is great diligence. The lending criteria did not use the tax rebate as income.

I was merely trying, unsuccessfully it seems, to point out that the various posters who keep reiterating the same old tired Shin corruption/scam story aren't addressing the issue at all. 'IF' there is a problem with defaults thats nothing to do with the government, its an issue between the lender and the borrower. I don't have a lot of faith in any these kind of stimulus programs anywhere in the world, but constantly trying to turn it into something it's not, gets old

If the thread was about the same old tired Shin corruption/scam story that would be cool. You and your fellows use every new thread to push the same old tired anti Shin propaganda. Get over it. They are gone and will stay gone as long as the Thai people are not allowed to vote. We all get it.

Dude, you're not reading that was exactly the point I was trying to make!