First car deal defaults jump 25 folds: Thai Excise Dept

[JesseFrank]

Dude, you're not reading that was exactly the point I was trying to make!

Thaiiliketoo isn't able to read properly, he's blinded by apologism.

[thailiketoo]

Boyo, you keep talking in circles. Earlier you say there is no evidence that the failure rate on normal car finances is much higher than 500 a year. Now that another poster has confirmed my posts about the huge amount of repos in Pattaya alone, keep in mind that there are another 76 provinces in Thailand with similar parking lots, it is on you to tell us why the failure rate on the first car rebate would be so much lower while it are the exact same consumers.

Now don't come back and tell us to ask Mr Somchai, because it is a fact that government officials dream up figures in Thailand, I have delivered the proof of that in an earlier post already.

Just give us a plausible reason as why a Thai person would not default on their first car rebate finance, but would do on a regular car finance, as is proven over and over already.

Thai people are not defaulting. If you have any evidence other than the anecdotal kind feel free to present it.

Your word or observations of one bar town in Thailand is hardly a credible source. You are trying to provoke an I said you said argument. You say there lots of repos; I say there are few repos. The debate becomes my eyes against yours which is nonsense.

If you have any credible evidence about car repos in Thailand which you think has anything to do with first time buyers and refutes the claims of the director-general of Excise Department post them and stop trying to goad me into a flame fest.

If you think the director-general of Excise Department not being truthful talk to him. Why would you think I have more information than the director-general of Excise Department? If you don't want to believe him; talk to him not me. I can't prove or disprove his numbers. The banks believe him. The Thai government believe him. The credit agencies believe him. Seems you are the only one who does not. What are your credentials and just who are you to be a trusted source?

[thailiketoo]

Tell me what bank would not take a 500 out of a million failure rate? That's not, not doing due diligence. That is great diligence. The lending criteria did not use the tax rebate as income.

I was merely trying, unsuccessfully it seems, to point out that the various posters who keep reiterating the same old tired Shin corruption/scam story aren't addressing the issue at all. 'IF' there is a problem with defaults thats nothing to do with the government, its an issue between the lender and the borrower. I don't have a lot of faith in any these kind of stimulus programs anywhere in the world, but constantly trying to turn it into something it's not, gets old

If the thread was about the same old tired Shin corruption/scam story that would be cool. You and your fellows use every new thread to push the same old tired anti Shin propaganda. Get over it. They are gone and will stay gone as long as the Thai people are not allowed to vote. We all get it.

Dude, you're not reading that was exactly the point I was trying to make!

OK I get it. Sorry.

[JesseFrank]

Boyo, you keep talking in circles. Earlier you say there is no evidence that the failure rate on normal car finances is much higher than 500 a year. Now that another poster has confirmed my posts about the huge amount of repos in Pattaya alone, keep in mind that there are another 76 provinces in Thailand with similar parking lots, it is on you to tell us why the failure rate on the first car rebate would be so much lower while it are the exact same consumers.

Now don't come back and tell us to ask Mr Somchai, because it is a fact that government officials dream up figures in Thailand, I have delivered the proof of that in an earlier post already.

Just give us a plausible reason as why a Thai person would not default on their first car rebate finance, but would do on a regular car finance, as is proven over and over already.

Thai people are not defaulting. If you have any evidence other than the anecdotal kind feel free to present it.

Your word or observations of one bar town in Thailand is hardly a credible source. You are trying to provoke an I said you said argument. You say there lots of repos; I say there are few repos. The debate becomes my eyes against yours which is nonsense.

If you have any credible evidence about car repos in Thailand which you think has anything to do with first time buyers and refutes the claims of the director-general of Excise Department post them and stop trying to goad me into a flame fest.

If you think the director-general of Excise Department not being truthful talk to him. Why would you think I have more information than the director-general of Excise Department? If you don't want to believe him; talk to him not me. I can't prove or disprove his numbers. The banks believe him. The Thai government believe him. The credit agencies believe him. Seems you are the only one who does not. What are your credentials and just who are you to be a trusted source?

Ok, no more your eyes for my eyes report. This is a report from just 1 lender, I don't know if he finances only bar town cars though.Over to you.

I know you gonna come back that this are not first time car buyers, so just give us a reason why those would default less. I have given the answer in post #204 already.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/webmobile/business/Tisco-says-loan-growth-wont-recover-this-year-30239066.html

July 22, 2014 1:00 am

Tisco says loan growth won't recover this year Leading car loan provider suffers 4% drop in lending as NPLs climb to 2.27% in H1

Not only has the prolonged political deadlock affected auto-loan demand, Tisco has suffered losses from used-car repossessions. Its lending dropped by 4 per cent in the first six months compared with the same period last year, while the rate of non-performing loans climbed to 2.27 per cent from below 2 per cent in the past several years.

Edited August 17, 2014 by JesseFrank

[metisdead]

An inflammatory post has been removed.

Argumentative posts with the intention of continued arguements have been removed.

[allan michaud]

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that means it was a big succes if only 500 people do not meet payments....

they have sold hundred thousands of cars.

again big succes!

A success for who ?? the poor ?? government ??? thousands of cars on the market, could bring down second hand prices though.

Considering over 1million cars were sold under the scheme, you have to say a default rate of 0.05% is bloody amazing. I don't believe this figure at all as a loan shark we know in Khon Kaen claimed to have over 30 cars, taken as deposits on loans, which people had failed to pay (at 10% per month), so she now owned them. I think it's far more likely that 500 people per month are joining the list of defaulters.

[Colabamumbai]

No surprise here, the scheme was always doomed to failure. - Gotta wunda about the mentality of some/most of the economists (hanging off the purse strings of the auto manufacturers (sic)) advising the government into such stupidity. Past performance proves they could not come up with such a far fetched scheme by themselves.

Anyway, great for the 2nd hand car market and those looking for a bargain.

EDIT: this does not only apply to cars. -- Here in Isaan there is a mountain of (mostly) Kabulta tractors being "snatched back" by the banks. Cannot say if there was a government subsidy but there has been some very aggressive sales by the tractor manufacturers.

There is no bargain on second hand cars in Thailand, rule of thumb all cars in Thailand are 30% more expensive that in your own country. Go and have a look and then have a friend quote you the same price on the same model in where ever, England, America, or Canada.

[mercman24]

just a little snippet, off topic, re: second hand car prices, my friend who has thai lady, lives in uk, has a BMW Z3 M series 3 litre, second hand price £4000 tops, i found one in BKK same year/model/colour for £ 17, 800 "ouch"

[alanrchase]

just a little snippet, off topic, re: second hand car prices, my friend who has thai lady, lives in uk, has a BMW Z3 M series 3 litre, second hand price £4000 tops, i found one in BKK same year/model/colour for £ 17, 800 "ouch"

Is he an hairdresser?

[northernjohn]

Is there any promise that the PTP made that actually worked n the countries favour?

Just wondering??

What promise did PTP make to the 500 people who defaulted on car loans?

Just wondering?

That they would all be rich within 6 months would be the most relevant silly promise. The newly rich car buyers wouldn't be defaulting on a car loan now would they?

That should shut him up.

If not that how about give me 6 months.

[metisdead]

A post containing a link to another forum has been removed:

13) You will not post links to other Thailand forums, or forums which could reasonably be construed as competition to Thaivisa.com or its sponsors.

[ginjag]

just a little snippet, off topic, re: second hand car prices, my friend who has thai lady, lives in uk, has a BMW Z3 M series 3 litre, second hand price £4000 tops, i found one in BKK same year/model/colour for £ 17, 800 "ouch"

Is he an hairdresser?

There was no CUT in the price, PERM any one from two. He was HIGHLIGHTING the difference, and a BMW is far better than these cheap SHORT BACK and SIDE jobs at 4,000 pound this guys no NIT. OK I'll be de- PARTING now and ride off on my Honda WAVE. My jokes get more bad as I get older.

[JesseFrank]

just a little snippet, off topic, re: second hand car prices, my friend who has thai lady, lives in uk, has a BMW Z3 M series 3 litre, second hand price £4000 tops, i found one in BKK same year/model/colour for £ 17, 800 "ouch"

Guess I must go get a car in the UK then, because the cheapest BMW Z3 M I could find on the online sites in Belgium was a 1997 at 19.800 Euro, or 15.855 Pound.

Are they really that cheap in the UK, or are you just making up things.

By the way here in Thailand they go at least triple the 17.800 Pound you quote.

Edited August 17, 2014 by JesseFrank

[ginjag]

just a little snippet, off topic, re: second hand car prices, my friend who has thai lady, lives in uk, has a BMW Z3 M series 3 litre, second hand price £4000 tops, i found one in BKK same year/model/colour for £ 17, 800 "ouch"

Guess I must go get a car in the UK then, because the cheapest BMW Z3 M I could find on the online sites in Belgium was a 1997 at 19.800 Euro, or 15.855 Pound.

Are they really that cheap in the UK, or are you just making up things.

By the way here in Thailand they go at least triple the 17.800 Pound you quote.

I had an immaculate silver metallic top model Honda prelude 7 years old 40k on the clock 2 owners--service history, sold it through a showroom 1,800 pound.

Nissan Micra (March here) similar---3 year second hand 2500 pound--here anywhere sells at 6000 pound. Honda jazz there pick one up for 4500--here same sells at 9500 pound. these are approx., but on the internet ( Go Car company ) will give you UK second hand prices.

[alanrchase]

just a little snippet, off topic, re: second hand car prices, my friend who has thai lady, lives in uk, has a BMW Z3 M series 3 litre, second hand price £4000 tops, i found one in BKK same year/model/colour for £ 17, 800 "ouch"

Guess I must go get a car in the UK then, because the cheapest BMW Z3 M I could find on the online sites in Belgium was a 1997 at 19.800 Euro, or 15.855 Pound.

Are they really that cheap in the UK, or are you just making up things.

By the way here in Thailand they go at least triple the 17.800 Pound you quote.

I had an immaculate silver metallic top model Honda prelude 7 years old 40k on the clock 2 owners--service history, sold it through a showroom 1,800 pound.

Nissan Micra (March here) similar---3 year second hand 2500 pound--here anywhere sells at 6000 pound. Honda jazz there pick one up for 4500--here same sells at 9500 pound. these are approx., but on the internet ( Go Car company ) will give you UK second hand prices.

Agree on models quoted but if you check Toyota 4×4 prices are similar.

[dieter1]

260 posts

seems to be a sexy topic: cars, money, politics ...

but nearly no one interested in profound political economic reasoning ..

same like politicians: their reasons for this kind of politics

may be benefits for own carrier (or income!), supporting minority/interest groups (car producers, banks ...), populisms or just plain

ignorance

best post so far:

"First you appropriate by force peoples monies through taxation then under the harmless guise of giving the people a break you provide incentives to buy cars- unless the manufacturers are reducing all car costs (in which case the effort would still be borne on the market through other means), society WILL pay fiscally.

Like the rice scheme, artificially propping a segment of the market negatively influences broader market indicators by effectively driving down prices or going out of business. There is an immediate and broad impact on the secondary auto market. Subtle? Insignificant? Depends; are a small amount of jobs worth the price of this program? Many jobs? Any? For all defaults the banks absorb the losses. Banks pass that on to consumers. Banks unload autos repossessed and this further depresses the secondary markets. You may argue the numbers are not high but all the numbers are negative. The benefit to the economy is amorphous and touchy feely populism. It's destructive and amoral to redistribute wealth, especially when disguised as the national good. When governments favor a sector of the economy things get unpredictable. It's artificial injection and it's only true relation to the natural state of economics is force! "

Edited August 17, 2014 by dieter1

[dieter1]

under last government household debts raising from 55 to 80 %

this figure alone is alarming!

and (I guess)main reason is the "first car " politic

nearly forcing people with an income of 12000 Baht to buy a new car is amoral ...

the % of income, these people are spending for their car is just plain crazy.

No more money left for other more important things (f. e. like healthy food, having children,) many cant even afford gas for the car - not to mention maintenance of the car ...)

Thailand's big cities (esp. Bangkok) are needing anything more then more cars.Even before , Bangkok streets were overcrowded.

The car nightmare is one of the worst chapter in modern western (major capitalistic) countries and these developing countries are going to repeat this disaster with even more speed.

(with a GDP like Thailand, in my home country people were using public transportation, bicycles or just their feed for transportation. Using cars as main transporting vehicle means destroying quality of living in the big cities (look at Bangkok today!), enormous pollution, and total wasting of resources (including manpower, production, lifetime, not to talk about energy ...)

Edited August 17, 2014 by dieter1

[alanrchase]

under last government household debts raising from 55 to 80 %

this figure alone is alarming!

and (I guess)main reason is the "first car " politic

nearly forcing people with an income of 12000 Baht to buy a new car is amoral ...

the % of income, these people are spending for their car is just plain crazy.

No more money left for other more important things (f. e. like healthy food, having children,) many cant even afford gas for the car - not to mention maintenance of the car ...)

Thailand's big cities (esp. Bangkok) are needing anything more then more cars.Even before , Bangkok streets were overcrowded.

The car nightmare is one of the worst chapter in modern western (major capitalistic) countries and these developing countries are going to repeat this disaster with even more speed.

(with a GDP like Thailand, in my home country people were using public transportation, bicycles or just their feed for transportation. Using cars as main transporting vehicle means destroying quality of living in the big cities (look at Bangkok today!), enormous pollution, and total wasting of resources (including manpower, production, lifetime, not to talk about energy ...)

Good topic. Lets see what is your new topic? Does Thailand need more cars?

Chill out, take a break. Untill the scheme has run its course (7 years?) all figures are worthless.

[metisdead]

Some more argumentative posts have been removed.

[Naam]

That is the current default rate.

Let me make this clear to you.

It will not be the future default rate. The future default rate will be around 5%, that will be in 2 years.

Nonsense post. You have no data or educated opinions that support this statement. I think making inflammatory statements (5% default rate) should be removed. It is like spreading a rumor that the sun won't rise in the morning. Some nut out there might actually believe you and hurt himself. A 5% default rate would have serious consequences to the economy and your rumormongering should be stopped unless you have some evidence to support your statement.

Instead of rebuking the opinion of the majority of posters here, why don't you give us a plausible explanation as to why the default rate on the rebate scheme should be lower than on regular finances ?

The majority of the posters are not discussing or debating. They are posting anti government nonsense that they post over and over again. Same posters same stuff. Thai government lies. Thai government can't trust the figures. Tourism numbers are lies. Stuff that has nothing to do with the OP.

Why do you say that the default rate on the rebate scheme is lower than on regular finances? What is the default rate of regular finances?

that the majority of posters is using any opportunity to apply anti-Thai bashing is nothing new. somehow i feel that the overwhelming number of Thaivisa participants have sworn a sacred oath to act accordingly, especially when no tangible facts are available.

[phantomfiddler]

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It appears that we have been defaulted on , the missus bought a 1.5 in December 2012 with the promise of 100,000 back from the government and we still have nothing

The missus has never previously had a car in her name ?

Nope she passed her test in 2012 and we got a fiesta for her. She went with a bit of an angry mob to Bangkok in April this year and they promised everyone would get their money. Ive read up about it once and apparently it should happen in this tax year. To be honest its not really hurting us financially but I imagine it is hurting some people. It also doesn't instill much confidence if future "Schemes" are introduced

This was always Big-T,s specialty, the promise in order to get the vote, but once in power who cares about the promise

[thailiketoo]

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It appears that we have been defaulted on , the missus bought a 1.5 in December 2012 with the promise of 100,000 back from the government and we still have nothing

The missus has never previously had a car in her name ?

Nope she passed her test in 2012 and we got a fiesta for her. She went with a bit of an angry mob to Bangkok in April this year and they promised everyone would get their money. Ive read up about it once and apparently it should happen in this tax year. To be honest its not really hurting us financially but I imagine it is hurting some people. It also doesn't instill much confidence if future "Schemes" are introduced

This was always Big-T,s specialty, the promise in order to get the vote, but once in power who cares about the promise

OP, "Altogether 1.25 million people have registered to enter the programme and 1.06 million of them have bought their first cars and have claimed tax refund from the government."

[mercman24]

surely something is amiss when people have to resort to protest of non payment as Sena Dave says, (first hand knowledge it would appear) and 1.06 million have claimed the tax refund ?, i wonder how many of them have actualy been paid, Daves misses has'nt, ?? can see another march brewing.

[JesseFrank]

This was always Big-T,s specialty, the promise in order to get the vote, but once in power who cares about the promise

OP, "Altogether 1.25 million people have registered to enter the programme and 1.06 million of them have bought their first cars and have claimed tax refund from the government."

Does these days "claim" equals receive ? I heard millions of farmers claimed their rice subsidy, but few received it during PTP's reign.

[thailiketoo]

This was always Big-T,s specialty, the promise in order to get the vote, but once in power who cares about the promise

OP, "Altogether 1.25 million people have registered to enter the programme and 1.06 million of them have bought their first cars and have claimed tax refund from the government."

Does these days "claim" equals receive ? I heard millions of farmers claimed their rice subsidy, but few received it during PTP's reign.

I would reply to this but I think it is a good example of a deflective post. The OP was quoted and then the above post tries to change the topic from First time buyer program to the Rice scheme. For informational purposes I'll point the poster to http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/747255-yingluck-must-face-rice-scheme-trial-thai-opinion/ which is on topic to his post.

[JesseFrank]

This was always Big-T,s specialty, the promise in order to get the vote, but once in power who cares about the promise

OP, "Altogether 1.25 million people have registered to enter the programme and 1.06 million of them have bought their first cars and have claimed tax refund from the government."

Does these days "claim" equals receive ? I heard millions of farmers claimed their rice subsidy, but few received it during PTP's reign.

I would reply to this but I think it is a good example of a deflective post. The OP was quoted and then the above post tries to change the topic from First time buyer program to the Rice scheme. For informational purposes I'll point the poster to http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/747255-yingluck-must-face-rice-scheme-trial-thai-opinion/ which is on topic to his post.

Dear Kelly, I only gave an example of what the difference is between claim and receive, something you don't seem to comprehend. I suggest your next username will be Thaiapologist.

Edited August 20, 2014 by JesseFrank