BoT says there's no economic recession

[webfact]

BoT says there's no economic recession
By Digital Content



BANGKOK, Aug 19 -- The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has asserted that the Thai economy is picking up and has not experienced any recession.

BoT spokesman Chirathep Senivongs Na Ayudhya said that the Thai economy grew by 0.4 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter this year and that it also performed better than in the previous quarter due to clarity regarding the political situation and government policies later in the second quarter.

Under the circumstances, consumption increased in both government and private sectors and confidence rose.

The Thai economy in the second quarter expanded by 0.9 per cent compared with the first quarter when the gross domestic product had shrunk by 1.9 per cent.

Mr Chirathep said that the Thai economy did not technically enter recession because the GDP did not fall for two quarters in a row.

Thailand's GDP in the first half of 2014 fell by 0.1 per cent year-on-year and that was better than the BOT's previously expected decline of 0.5 per cent.

The economy improved more than expected in the second quarter and the money market reacted positively yesterday, Mr Chirathep said.

The BoT will continue monitoring spending in the private and the government sectors, he said. (MCOT online news)


-- TNA 2014-08-19

[ratcatcher]

Tourists are also flooding into Thailand in never heard of before numbers, or so we are told.

[terryp]

both the UK and Italy now including Drug (illegal) purchases and payment for prostitution into the GDP this is why all the numbers are deliberately skewed ......what is thailand including?

[marcusd]

No need to include anything. Just throw numbers around like they do tourism numbers and say anything positive and WHAM! there is all you need for a newspaper byline

[aguy30]

"Don't Thai to me", comes to mind.

[Lingba]

well if BOT said it then it must be true

[BigBadGeordie]

Technically they are correct, but, mmmmmmm

[surangw]

Tourists are also flooding into Thailand in never heard of before numbers, or so we are told.

not necessarily high numbers

[surangw]

well if BOT said it then it must be true

or the opposite

[Somtamnication]

Everyone happy at TAT. Another Prozac day for GDP numbers!

[SantiSuk]

Unlike TAT, BOT cannot just pluck numbers out of the air. There is an element of oversight provided by IMF - country visits and audits. Not saying that does not preclude a bit of massaging numbers by changing the base, but don't go overboard with your cynicism.

[BSJ]

I think we are experiencing a contraction of the economy but we haven't reached a recession....yet.

But for me there is always a doubt in my mind the BoT figures are 100% genuine.

[siampolee]

BoT says there's no economic recession

Now what is it?

Oh I remember.

Lies, dammed lies, and statistics.

[BudRight]

Whew, that's a relief.

[jayboy]

Unlike TAT, BOT cannot just pluck numbers out of the air. There is an element of oversight provided by IMF - country visits and audits. Not saying that does not preclude a bit of massaging numbers by changing the base, but don't go overboard with your cynicism.

There's plenty of reasons for pessimism as the following article indicates - with some welcome but rarely expressed truths about the Sino Thai middle class.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/thailand-country-with-a-promising-future-cm381408#ixzz3AtWqhQrQ

Edited August 20, 2014 by jayboy

[rickirs]

Unfortunately the 0.4 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter may be an artificial aberation. Two major factors led to this growth: increase in domestic spending and increased export demand.

For the 2nd quarter the Junta pumped nearly Bt200 billion owed to the rice farmers into the economy similar to an economic stimulus. But this amount was borrowed and part of the borrowing came from government trreasury bond issues and from the Government Savings Bank that is getting less interest than the government treasury bonds.

For the 2nd quarter the baht dropped in value relative to major world currencies. This made Thai exports cheaper and, thus, in more demand.

Over the remaining two quarters the government's debt obligations must be met and the value of the baht has already risen in value against major foreign currencies. Through the 2nd quarter government revenue collection was down about 28% based on annualized collection for the last nine months. Meanwhile there is a continued drop in tourism and the Junta is planning an 8% increase in civil servant pay. While the latter will contribute to further domestic consumption, it may also contribute to inflation and greater government debt. Thai household debt has been steadily increasing and bank interest rates have begun to rise to meet increasing risks associated with consumer loans. NCPO has further indicated that it may provide some subsidy and financial assistance in lower production costs to rice farmers; rubber farmers are seeking the same benefits.

Possibly to avert a reversion to negative economic growth for the rest of 2014, NCPO plans to raise more government revenues by an inheritance tax, increased VAT and property taxes. But there seems to be a lack of details on what amounts will be raised and the taxation system already appears to be "stressed" given its 2013/2014 performance. And naturally there are always those unforeseen events that could further impact the Thai economy outside of its control. As an example, if the EU supports more sever economic sanctions against Russia over the Ukrainian crisis and Russia continues to counter impose sanctions against the EU, the EU economy may suffer. This would then reduce the demand for Thai imports.

I realize the NCPO is trying its best fto craft an economic recovery, especially since its own budget comes out of government funds. But trying to chart an economic recovery by committee and fiat may not bring sufficient expertise and time to create a sustained growth rate.

[Strangebrew]

BOT Is Changing name to BOBS it turns out it bares a strong reference to bull poop a Bunch of it. They skew the numbers then it is so.

[Strangebrew]

How come every time BOT announces something I go look for my hip boots?

[khunken]

The BOT is one of the few organisations in Thailand with a credible leadership and credible figures.

If this is seen as doom & gloom, it's a lot better than 2013 when the country did enter a technical recession of two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

The problem is that the country is falling behind its peers & has been for quite some time now. Unless the junta can ensure that much less corrupt and incompetent people (than the last lot) can be brought into the political arena, the country will continue to stagnate relative to it's neighbours.

[Jonmarleesco]

'... first quarter ... gross domestic product ... shrunk by 1.9 per cent.' Other sources had the first quarter contracting at 0.6%, showing just how reliable statistics really are.

[ggt]

If it comes from a banking institution...then you know you can trust the information...NOT!

[SteveFong]

still teetering on the edge of a plummet

wait until reality sets in,

[Ricardo]

It may not be a technical recession, but it sure is one heck of a slow-down.

Yay for orders/advice from Dubai !

[SteveFong]

if they were to publish a "flow of funds" chart,

I would be inclined to believe it has the appearance of a car falling off a cliff,

there are bounces, yes, but, they are not going to stop the inevitable which is a drop to the bottom and then the fallout

for now, the numbers are reflecting last years orders, and, last years schemes,

6-18 months out, from the start of the Lumphini protests, and we will see the reality