Get Out Of $dollars$ Now!

[thaistick]

the yen carry trade,america's historic debtload,iran oil bourse in euros,russia oil for rubles,central

banks switching reserves out of dollars,america's real estate and stock market bubbles,etc.

one night this fall while america is sleeping,the rest of the world will be doing business and some central bank/country will dump their dollars causing others to which starts a panic stampede to get out of dollars before the next guy.last ones out will lose and since money is now electronically moved in seconds with a push of a button,america will wake up one morning this october or november and find out that trillions of dollars have come home to roost in an economy with trillions in debt making a dollar worth a penny and a loaf of bread cost $100.dollars will be become like latin american money used to be and america will have thousands of percent inflation like latin america used to have.the us gov will naturally close down us banks and seal safety deposit boxes in the national interest,there will be rioting and looting which will have the cities turned into warzones,

paris hilton and jessica simpson will be fashionably starving in their pradas,americans will be fleeing across the border into mexico,and america will disintegrate into self-governing territories and regions.

convert your assets into gold and swiss francs and euros now and preserve your wealth or even profit from the collapse.

that is all.

[Old Croc]

I wondered what Greenspan was doing in retirement

[stevemcqueen]

How about the Japanese Yen ??????

[LoveDaBlues]

I'll re-post this in December.......get your excuses ready.

[Martin]

I agree with the title of the topic, but I hope the prediction in the post doesn't come true.

The dollar will come down, and I can't see how it can be a managed, smooth and orderly reduction, but I pray it to merely lurch down, not collapse in a heap.

What currency would it be best to be in, though?

The only countries that look to have sound 'fundamentals' now are those which are nett oil exporters, and Thailand, as a nett rice exporter.

Should it be Gulf dollars and bahts, then?

Personally, I have taken the cowards way out and gone for gold.

[Martin]

I notice now that the OP suggests euros or swiss francs.

But won't the ending of US demand throw so many out of work that the various European economies will be hard hit?

And since they have to import oil to keep warm in winter won't that be drain on them?

What about the Australian dollar, and the Canadian dollar?

They seem to be countries that could feed and house their populations and still have something to export for which there would be a bit of demand. So would their currencies appreciate?

[OldAsiaHand]

While there is an intelligent case to be made that the USD will weaken in the medium term, the OP isn't making it. 'Americans will be fleeing across the border into Mexico?' Surely he is just pulling our leg. Nobody could really be that dumb.

[tingtong]

The statement said, the dollar will come down.

My opinion, this is a bit late to say, as it has come down a lot already in the last few years.

Is somebody remember the starting month of the Euro, and the exchange around 2000? Well, everyone predicted the days of the Euro numbered....and here it is still, looks pretty good actually.

In 2003 the dollar went, but since it is a bit better.

Again, i think till it won't hit that point, and a bit bellow, technically we are safe.

As i see all the economies move in circles, ups, and downs. Arent the thai is on the way down right now???

For last, i think Martin's suggestion of Canadian or Aussie $ is sound. After all, Euro-zone growth mainly kept up with the new joiners faster pace.

[Mighty Mouse]

The Greenback will slide. There is little doubt about that. The argument is by how much and how quickly.

Only time will tell.

The OP mentioned getting into gold. Forget other currencies, get into physical gold.

When the $ does decline, gold will glitter.

[LivinLOS]

I echo MM's post..

I dont think a full scale dollar rout is a high probability but the very fact that its an outside chance is still too much risk to global financial systems.. Essentially the collapse of the reserve currency of the world.

I also am major in gold and gold mining and exploration equity..

I find it very hard toi refute the solid points made in thie piece.

http://www.freemarketnews.com/Analysis/65/...wid=65&nid=5588

Scary..

[Gary A]

All I can say is that 60 % of my money is in US dollars and 40 % is in foreign currency. Thanks for the advice but I think I'll keep my 60 % in US dollars. Time will tell.

[LoveDaBlues]

100% of mine in US real estate and $. Guess I'll be broke by December.

[tingtong]

Just a few word for the goldlovers.

pls note, that the price of gold didnt change so much in term of Swiss frank, or Euro. The price mainly fluctuate because the US$ does.

This might mean, gold is only matter of interest if you would have the same $ value. then if you have Euro, why to buy gold? Again, then if you think US$ will lose to currencies, why not buy currencies? Way easier to diversify your investment also that way then. I think that 60-40 US-international what Gary does could be good...maybe this is why i keep similar ratios mostly

[LivinLOS]

Erm dont know where you buy your gold.. Certainly not locally.

Euro price 12 month has been a 39.3% rise

Swiss franc 12 month 42.2% rise

GBP 40% 12 months.

http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/charts.htm?USD

Me thinks you need to look at your facts..

Edited July 9, 2006 by LivinLOS

[muckypups]

Erm dont know where you buy your gold.. Certainly not locally.

Euro price 12 month has been a 39.3% rise

Swiss franc 12 month 42.2% rise

GBP 40% 12 months.

http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/charts.htm?USD

Me thinks you need to look at your facts..

I think Swiss Francs would not be a bad idea.

[LivinLOS]

Just to be clear.. That was the rise of gold price within those currencies.. Ting Tong was saying gold price rises were merely inverse dollar effect and it was only rising in Dollars not other currencies.. That would then indicate that the USD has fallen 50% in a year something that clearly has not happened (and would start to qualify as a rout in my opinion)..

[lannarebirth]

the yen carry trade,america's historic debtload,iran oil bourse in euros,russia oil for rubles,central

banks switching reserves out of dollars,america's real estate and stock market bubbles,etc.

one night this fall while america is sleeping,the rest of the world will be doing business and some central bank/country will dump their dollars causing others to which starts a panic stampede to get out of dollars before the next guy.last ones out will lose and since money is now electronically moved in seconds with a push of a button,america will wake up one morning this october or november and find out that trillions of dollars have come home to roost in an economy with trillions in debt making a dollar worth a penny and a loaf of bread cost $100.dollars will be become like latin american money used to be and america will have thousands of percent inflation like latin america used to have.the us gov will naturally close down us banks and seal safety deposit boxes in the national interest,there will be rioting and looting which will have the cities turned into warzones,

paris hilton and jessica simpson will be fashionably starving in their pradas,americans will be fleeing across the border into mexico,and america will disintegrate into self-governing territories and regions.

convert your assets into gold and swiss francs and euros now and preserve your wealth or even profit from the collapse.

that is all.

1995 was a 4.5 yr, 9 yr and 18 yr cycle bottom for the $USD Index. The end of 04/beginning of 05 was the start of a new 4.5 yr and 9 yr cycle. this second 9 yr cycle occurs as the 18 yr is trending down. we just bottomed off the 1 st nominal 18 month cycle low after that new 4.5 and 9 yr cycle bottom. This recent 18 month cycle low had a higher low than the previous and projects higher highs (than the last 18 month cycle)over the next several months. Longer trends tend to dominate but seldom near the beginning of new short term trends.

Anyone that knows anything about currencies knows it doesn't mean a ###### thing what currency oil is traded in. As you said yourself "money is now electronically moved in seconds with a push of a button", and I might add with next to zero slippage where large numbers are concerned.

None of the above has anything to do with how the $USD may trade against the THB, as they have delinked and further irregularities have appeared since China has named the Baht to it's Index basket (though only a small %).

[meom]

The Greenback will slide. There is little doubt about that. The argument is by how much and how quickly.

Only time will tell.

The OP mentioned getting into gold. Forget other currencies, get into physical gold.

When the $ does decline, gold will glitter.

The US itself has a lot of physical gold so makes you wonder when they will put Fort Knox on the market causing an over supply in gold.

[sendbaht]

It's hel_l getting old because we've seen all of the doomsday predictions and scams -- sometimes two or three times! We've even fallen for some of them -- once.

There was this great tent preacher back in the 1830's that had calculated the exact end of the world (or second coming - take your pick). He had thousands of followers. I know he is right. He just made a minor error in his calculations.

[Mighty Mouse]

The US itself has a lot of physical gold so makes you wonder when they will put Fort Knox on the market causing an over supply in gold.

According to the U.S. Mint, there are 147.3 million ounces on deposit that belong to the US Govt.

That's just a few trinkets.

How much gold is there in the world? You can better understand by clicking here.

[tingtong]

Tingtong didnt say gold didnt rise in other currencies. Merely said those rise was way less, then in US$ itself, if you put the dollar's slide in the math.

Certainly, if somebody want to buy gold, go for it. I can't tell what will be, as nobody else can. we all write private opinions, which can differ of course.

Still, i disagree with the doomsayers, as everybody's interest to have a US$.

[fisherd3]

Erm dont know where you buy your gold.. Certainly not locally.

Euro price 12 month has been a 39.3% rise

Swiss franc 12 month 42.2% rise

GBP 40% 12 months.

http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/charts.htm?USD

Me thinks you need to look at your facts..

I think Swiss Francs would not be a bad idea.

I know nothing much but I do know that now when dollar strengthens the swiss franc strengthens, when the dollar weakens the swiss franc weakens, just like clockwork, this would seem to contradict the above suggestion.

[DrFisher]

You are obviously not well informed about American finance (nor am I for that matter) in any event after the depression in the USA the government set up a system so it can not happen again (FDIC), major recession is possible but not a full blown depression. I have no doubt the U.S. dollar will fall and the USA will fall flat on it’s bottom (in the next 100 years) but if anything it will make Americans pull together and restart industry instead of importing. I’m not discrediting your statement (I have only $200 U.S. myself if for some reason I ever have to go back). I'm not happy with the USA and I have not been for a long time so I found a new home and shut up about it. Seriously look at the facts before you go starting a panic and back up your comments with facts rather than personal opinions, hopes or beliefs. I am an expatriate for a reason.

[naka]

Another of his semi literate rants.

What is his native language anyway ?

What a tosser.

Naka.

Edited July 11, 2006 by naka

[TRIPxCORE]

The OP is a little late to the party. I have been out of USD for the past 4 years.

[lannarebirth]

The $USD may indeed slide against Gold in future years (not now I don't think), but if there is one currency to be gotten out of "now" IMO it is the Euro. IMO it's the most worthless currency on earth. A very poor replacement for the Deutsche Mark.

[malcolminthemiddle]

If the US$ were to crash, would this cause the Canadian $ to crash ? How closely related are they?

[lannarebirth]

If the US$ were to crash, would this cause the Canadian $ to crash ? How closely related are they?

tt The short answer is " no one knows". For the past 4-5 years the looney has traded pretty much inversely to the $USD, climbing 45% off it's lows, while the $USD sank almost 35% off it's highs.

I would not be surprised to see the looney retrace another 5% -10% down here, before it trys to move higher, if it can.

[Soju]

If the US$ were to crash, would this cause the Canadian $ to crash ? How closely related are they?

Many currencies were for a long time pegged to the US Dollar and went up and down as did the Dollar. These pegs are not nearly as popular these days as the Dollar's dominance in the world currency market has faded. However, don't let anyone fool you. The US Dollar is still the king, as is the US economy. If the US Dollar tanks as some predict, the US economy will almost certainly go with it, and as the US economy goes, so goes the world economy. I think a lot of the dire predictions about the US Dollar and economy come from people with an axe to grind against the US, but they fail to realize that a deep recession in the US will almost certainly hit them in their country just as hard if not harder. I don't think there's any question that the US is the most powerful country on earth power economically and militarily. There's always people who are jealous of whoever is on top and would like nothing more than to see them fall. On top of that, many people disagree politically with the current US administration and based on that, wish bad economic times on the country. The world's economies are much more dependant on each other now than at any time in our history. No longer can any major country have a financial collapse and not have it effect the world. Stability in all major economies in the world is in the best interest of us all. However, should a worldwide crash happen, my money would be on the US to be one of the first to pull themselves out of the recession while other countries still struggle. The American people and economy are quite capable of pulling together and acting very quickly as needed in tough times.

Back to your question, I would say that being Canada and the US are neighbors and many people tend to lump them together even though we all know they're two different countries, that the Canadian Dollar is linked to the US Dollar more closely than many other currencies are. I don't think it would remain stable if the US Dollar crashed. But again, if the US Dollar really crashed in a big way, I predict a deep worldwide recession would result which would then force the major currencies to somewhat even out in a relatively short period of time.

If you're investing for the long-term, I don't think you should care that much about currency fluctuations. Currencies go up and down all the time. I like to balance my investments in several major currencies, and should I need to cash in on an investment, I would likely look at the strength of the currency for a particular investment, as well as what I think it's performance potential was for the future in deciding which one to cash in on. Likewise when making an investment. When investing, look for opportunities with weak currencies and when selling an investment look at the ones dominated in strong currencies.

[Martin]

'Soju' is right.

If the US$ tanks, all h-ll will break loose on the international financial scene.

I hope it doesn't happen, but I just cannot see how it can be avoided in the middle to long term.

A country that gets deep into debt, as the US has done, is no different from an individual. Your creditors may not want it to happen, and help you to delay it, but ultimately a day of reckoning comes.

Nor can I foresee how long the present short-term will last. Days, weeks, months, or years?

There are very strong reasons for every country to want the dollar to hold up.

It is all so 'globalised' now that no country would be unscathed by the reduction in demand for its exports.(Due to the importing country no longer having the ability to afford to pay for the import.)

I think that trade in manufactured goods would be hit so hard that it would virtually cease. Countries would have to concentrate on keeping their people fed and heated.

What demand there was for manufactured goods would be kept for the contry's own workers, by imposing big tariffs on imports. And, as 'soju' says, the US could be expected to act very quickly to do that.

And if the US is seen as weakened in its ability to deploy its military strength, what geo-poltical adventures might be embarked on, with what consequences? It is impossible to predict.

The whole situation is, to me, really scary.