Get Out Of $dollars$ Now!

[backflip]

"Both theories on price are incorrect"

The theory that traders set prices is incorrect. If traders set prices, why don't they just set it at $100/barrel? Supply and demand sets the prices, and that's true, whether you accept it or not. Traders bet whether prices will rise or fall. If they guess right, they make money. If they guess wrong, they lose money. It's that simple.

[englishoak]

ALL Fiat currencies have failed throughout history,there are NO exceptions.

Politically, the Bush administration is probably the most unpopular administration I can remember. They will do anything to avoid the economic disaster while in power,that includes going to war etc etc,whatever it takes.If the green back needs support from some other nations it will be very costly if given at all.

IMHO the dollar will eventually go the same way given the facts that.

a. The current defecit is increasing by on average $1.5 billion a day since this time last year. It currently stands at about $8.5 Trillion.

b. Since the bubble of the stockmarket burst it has been replaced with a housing bubble.That bubble has now also burst and has been replaced by another stocks bubble.

c. If oil markets replace dollars with Euros the petro dollar has no longer a licence to print, without restraint, the world’s reserve currency.

d. Personal savings in the US are at the moment one of the lowest in the world.

e. Over the next 5 years the baby boomers come into retirement. there is serious question of how an increasing retirement population is going to be suported by a shrinking working population?

f. The only reason the US continues to hold position as no 1 is through it's military. Bullying will only work for so long. The current bill for the Iraq war is already over $2 Trillion.

Ironically, dollar superiority depends on strong military, and strong military depends on the dollar. That is the double edge sword here. Damage the dollar and the military suffers, that is not acceptable and is why the US will do anything to shore up the dollar.

The whole economic system depends on continuing the current monetary arrangement, which means recycling the dollar is crucial. Currently, the US borrows over $700 billion every year from other gracious benefactors, who work hard and take the dollar for their goods. Then the US borrows all the money they need to secure the empire plus more. The military might the US has becomes the “backing” of the currency. There are no other countries that can challenge the US military superiority, and therefore they have little choice but to accept the dollars the US declare are today’s “gold.” This is why countries that challenge the system-- like Iraq, Iran and Venezuela--become targets of the US for regime change. But give other countries a choice and more and more will consider and be likely to endorse and support that option rather than the dollar. This is what will more than likely happen.

They will probaby like the Roman empire eventually collapse if every mile is squeezed out of the economic machine.

I would certainly move some assets into another currency or gold just as a hedge bet or "insurance" policy if I was a US citizen.

[PeaceBlondie]

...

As for the "enemies", I guess it could be slightly more complicated.

China now has 1 000 billions USD in reserves (due to huge trade surplus).

So would it be in their interest to let the USD free falling ?

At one point, I imagine that it could be a master plan from the US : their debt is so monstruous that... actually no one would have any interest to let the currency goes down : they are stucked with mountains of USD. So they keep climbing... And the system continues.

Monetarily, it is not in China's best interest to take a big loss on its dollar reserves. Politically, if they thought that dumping dollars would ruin the US economy, are the Chinese generals and politicians reckless enough to give it a try? And is there a deriviative they can buy to hedge themselves against the fall of the US$? Has the enemy of a superpower ever held so much of a currency or bonds?

Rationally, though, China can't afford to lose its biggest export customer. But the point is, that these things aren't entirely rational. And China is not alone in wishing the economic demise of the USA.

The comptroller general of the USA said at the London School of Economics this year, that if China and other countries just stopped buying treasury bonds (without selling any), it would disturb the economy tremendously.

[britmaveric]

...

As for the "enemies", I guess it could be slightly more complicated.

China now has 1 000 billions USD in reserves (due to huge trade surplus).

So would it be in their interest to let the USD free falling ?

At one point, I imagine that it could be a master plan from the US : their debt is so monstruous that... actually no one would have any interest to let the currency goes down : they are stucked with mountains of USD. So they keep climbing... And the system continues.

Monetarily, it is not in China's best interest to take a big loss on its dollar reserves. Politically, if they thought that dumping dollars would ruin the US economy, are the Chinese generals and politicians reckless enough to give it a try? And is there a deriviative they can buy to hedge themselves against the fall of the US$? Has the enemy of a superpower ever held so much of a currency or bonds?

Rationally, though, China can't afford to lose its biggest export customer. But the point is, that these things aren't entirely rational. And China is not alone in wishing the economic demise of the USA.

The comptroller general of the USA said at the London School of Economics this year, that if China and other countries just stopped buying treasury bonds (without selling any), it would disturb the economy tremendously.

Conversely if the US decided to stop buying from China - it would ruin China. This is dependent relationship on one another. Let's not be naive.

[lannarebirth]

"Both theories on price are incorrect"

The theory that traders set prices is incorrect. If traders set prices, why don't they just set it at $100/barrel? Supply and demand sets the prices, and that's true, whether you accept it or not. Traders bet whether prices will rise or fall. If they guess right, they make money. If they guess wrong, they lose money. It's that simple.

It is not true and I do not accept it, Traders are not placing bets on whether prices or fall. Traders are owners of oil and buyers and sellers of oil. While it's true that some traders are speculators and own oil futures simply as a trade, they in fact take on the obligation to buy or sell 500 bbls of crude for every contract they trade. I do it myself and have never held a position to settlement date when I would have to deliver.

[lannarebirth]

that is not acceptable and is why the US will do anything to shore up the dollar.

The US Treasury department has for a few years now been actively working to weaken the dollar as part of it "beggar thy neighbor policy". A weaker dollar is good for US business interests and is why they have been lobbying the government so hard to take a strong stance with China to let the Yuan rise agaunst the dollar.

[lannarebirth]

Conversely if the US decided to stop buying from China - it would ruin China. This is dependent relationship on one another. Let's not be naive.

Quite right. If China does anything to inhibit it's growth before it addresses it's huge disparity of wealth between classes issue, there would likely be great civil strife in China.

[LaoPo]

Conversely if the US decided to stop buying from China - it would ruin China. This is dependent relationship on one another. Let's not be naive.

Almost Correct.....the sentence however should be followed by:

........it would ruin China, but the USA as well, and the rest of the world.

This world -any country!- is no longer able to survive on its own.

It's a GLOBAL world we are living in nowadays.

We need each other.

LaoPo

[kdvsn]

ALL Fiat currencies have failed throughout history,there are NO exceptions.

Politically, the Bush administration is probably the most unpopular administration I can remember. They will do anything to avoid the economic disaster while in power,that includes going to war etc etc,whatever it takes.If the green back needs support from some other nations it will be very costly if given at all.

IMHO the dollar will eventually go the same way given the facts that.

a. The current defecit is increasing by on average $1.5 billion a day since this time last year. It currently stands at about $8.5 Trillion.

b. Since the bubble of the stockmarket burst it has been replaced with a housing bubble.That bubble has now also burst and has been replaced by another stocks bubble.

c. If oil markets replace dollars with Euros the petro dollar has no longer a licence to print, without restraint, the world’s reserve currency.

d. Personal savings in the US are at the moment one of the lowest in the world.

e. Over the next 5 years the baby boomers come into retirement. there is serious question of how an increasing retirement population is going to be suported by a shrinking working population?

f. The only reason the US continues to hold position as no 1 is through it's military. Bullying will only work for so long. The current bill for the Iraq war is already over $2 Trillion.

Ironically, dollar superiority depends on strong military, and strong military depends on the dollar. That is the double edge sword here. Damage the dollar and the military suffers, that is not acceptable and is why the US will do anything to shore up the dollar.

The whole economic system depends on continuing the current monetary arrangement, which means recycling the dollar is crucial. Currently, the US borrows over $700 billion every year from other gracious benefactors, who work hard and take the dollar for their goods. Then the US borrows all the money they need to secure the empire plus more. The military might the US has becomes the “backing” of the currency. There are no other countries that can challenge the US military superiority, and therefore they have little choice but to accept the dollars the US declare are today’s “gold.” This is why countries that challenge the system-- like Iraq, Iran and Venezuela--become targets of the US for regime change. But give other countries a choice and more and more will consider and be likely to endorse and support that option rather than the dollar. This is what will more than likely happen.

They will probaby like the Roman empire eventually collapse if every mile is squeezed out of the economic machine.

I would certainly move some assets into another currency or gold just as a hedge bet or "insurance" policy if I was a US citizen.

Historically, rises in US militarism do not correlate well with the strength of the dollar, what does correlate well is the Federal Reserve Bank's monetary policy. If the foremost goal of the Americans was to strengthen the dollar, the way to do it would be for the Fed to do as Paul Volker did under Carter & Reagan and gradually rise interest rates to about 15% (which in the process would kill commodity prices and encourage more foreigners to park their cash in US$ denominated instruments) and then slowly back off. Of course that's too abstract to make a good bumper sticker; a slogan "No Contraction of M1 of Oil" just doesn’t have the same ring as "No Blood for Oil".

[englishoak]

Almost Correct.....the sentence however should be followed by:

........it would ruin China, but the USA as well, and the rest of the world.

This world -any country!- is no longer able to survive on its own.

It's a GLOBAL world we are living in nowadays.

We need each other.

The above theory seems to be we are a global economy and, as such we are totally dependent now on one another. Now while I agree with this to a degree I would also suggest that in the event of a dollar meltdown an alternative would also emerge. The world would recover and go on as always.

In the short term it would be disaster yes, but in the longer term the rest of the world would emerge far better off than America would ........ the question is if and when the other economies supporting the dollar consider it no longer worth it......

the way to do it would be for the Fed to do as Paul Volker did under Carter & Reagan and gradually rise interest rates to about 15%

This is what I suspect will be more likely in the short term. We are all way overdue for a recession and it is the only way to ensure continued survival of the dollar. It's a cycle thing, the only problem with this is the longer it is avoided then the greater the correction will have to be.....

[britmaveric]

$ will always be strong, as well as sterling. US is manipulating the dollar for its own means.

[Martin]

It is usual for cool realists (like the Chinese government) to go on lending to a borrower who is borrowing themself into trouble, when there is plenty of colateral.

Ultimately, the lender invites the borrower to come and "discuss your situation". A potential buyer of a chunk of the colateral is produced and a deal is proposed.

What scenario would suit China, AND get the US off the financial hook it is on (through its citizens buying things they don't need with money they haven't got, and its military fighting wars they don't understand with methods that don't work)?

I can see a scenario of the Chinese saying bluntly: "You can transfer Alaska to us, and your debt will be cancelled".

And the Saudi Arabia offering to cancel the US debt to them in return for Hawai'i.

Empires wax and then wane.

But the wane does not have to be "Decline and Fall".

The UK is still there, though the British Empire is no more.

The USA could contract a bit and still be a middle-sized boy when the really big boys (China and India) have grown up.

But to get America in a mood to 'bite the bullet' and accept losing its Empire and taking up that diminished role, China may have to demonstrate its power by shaking the dollar.

As a holder of dollars I would be "only a little apple delicately attached to the big tree, and vulnerable to any shaking of it".

So I am holding gold, instead.

[Nam Kao]

I dont trade currencies but i have heard they are manilulated same as the stock markets

If your short the dollar keep an eye on the short interest, these crooks dont get payed

til they screw someone

[Gary A]

Don't hold your breath waiting for the US government to "prop" up the dollar. A weak dollar is good for the US economy. I'm certainly not an economist but it is obvious that Americans are spending too much money based on the value of their homes. The real estate bubble is set to burst and what happens then will make matters worse. The banks do want their loans repaid sometime. The national debt is actually quite small when compared to the GDP.

[PeaceBlondie]

The national debt is actually quite small when compared to the GDP.

Not according to "the nation's CPA," the Comptroller General. He calculates the national debt as 29 trillion, and balooning out of control. The 8 or 9 trillion that people quote is the tip of the iceberg.

Also, the whole scenario of comparing the national debt to the GDP is (IMHO) apples to organges. It makes a god out of GDP, when we're really talking about TAXES paying off the debt, or nobody never paying nothing, and just rolling over more t-bonds by printing more of them.

Okay, back to the baht. Let's say that by the end of next year, the US$ falls ten or twenty or even forty percent against the euro or the pound. How would such a weak dollar compare against the baht?

[Naam]

***Get Out Of $dollars$ Now!***

i am hearing this since 1971, that's a cool 35 years today. i agree that the U.S. fiscal deficit, the current account "IM"-balance and the low saving rate of U.S. citizens are all negative facts. BUT for global investors and central banks there is no way neglecting the dollar. big creditors like China who sit on U.S. Treasuries worth trillions of dollars do NOT have an alternative as these dollars are based on trade imbalances. there is no way exporting goods to the U.S. and asking to be paid in EUR or GBP.

there is also no way (as decribed in a very naive manner) that "America will be sleeping while dollars are dumped in Asia and/or Europe". currency trading is going on 24 hours/day with only a small break on weekends. the traders of central banks and institutional investors have their fingers on the pulse around the clock.

[Gary A]

De bunking the doom and gloom crowd;

http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/js4150.htm

First, let's look at our economic performance - the "architecture", if you will, that we are discussing. By any measure, economic performance in the United States is quite strong, and looks set to continue so for a good while. Gross domestic product grew 3.5% last year - well above our historical average over the last 20 years of right around 3%, and particularly strong when compared with GDP growth in other developed economies: Germany (1.1%), France (1.5%), Italy (0%), UK (1.8%). Virtually every observer forecasts similarly strong growth in the United States to continue. The President's budget projects a 3.4% growth rate for the current fiscal year, and many private sector forecasters project an even stronger rate.

We can put our debt burden in further context by comparing it to that of other countries. Even if our debt seems reasonable compared to our own historical practice, are we in a substantially worse fiscal position than other countries of the developed world? To make that comparison, we need to calculate not just the federal debt burden, but those of the states as well, given that international statistics are generally kept for countries as a whole. Adding in the states, our net government debt is roughly 46% of GDP. This is almost a third less than the average of 66% for the rest of the G7, and modest compared to Italy's 106% or Japan's 93%.

In fact, however, government revenues have been increasing strongly. Net receipts grew 5% in 2004, but then 15% in 2005 - the largest percentage increase in history. And this is not merely a "percentage" phenomenon: total quarterly tax payments in June of 2005 were the largest amounts received in the history of the country, until the September quarterly tax date when that record was broken, a record that lasted until December when it was broken again. The Treasury received roughly $2.2 trillion in taxes in FY 2005, the largest amount ever. And this was not a one-year event. For the first five months of FY 2006 revenue has grown at 10.3%. Corporate taxes are up 30% so far this year, while individual income tax payments have increased over 10% through February. Revenue increases at almost 3 times the rate of inflation, and a revenue to GDP ratio of 18% (in line with the average for the 1990s and somewhat higher than the average for almost any other period of the country's history since World War II), indicate that this is not a question of a tax regime that is starving the government of resources.

The large US holdings of foreign assets have another implication as well, beyond the potential for these valuation effects. Because US holdings abroad tend to be more heavily in equity investments, both direct and portfolio, and foreign holdings of US assets tend to be more heavily in debt instruments, the return on US international investment has tended to be substantially higher than the return on foreign holdings of US instruments, even though the overall valuations show us with net external exposure. As recently as 2005 - and even in light of our sizable current account deficit - the United States continued to receive from its foreign investment more than it paid out and thus by one quite relevant measure remained a net creditor of the world. This, too, is likely to change as monetary policy has tightened and US short-term interest rates have risen, but it demonstrates that we are likely to wait for quite some time before the growth in our net external liabilities actually begins to pose a financing problem for the United States. And both Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke have put forward quite persuasive arguments that, at such time in the future when international capital flows do begin to find destinations outside the United States to a greater degree, we should expect the US economy to adjust quite smoothly without serious consequences for either short-term or long-term growth. Mercifully, given the length of time we've already been at this this morning, I will not walk you through those arguments here, but simply refer you to their speeches over the last few years.

[ding]

The big boys will not sleep and be caught, but the myriad others in the US likely will wake up all blinky eyed and promptly start shaking like dogs pooping peach seeds.

Here's something cheery;

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?typ...

PARIS, Oct 13 (Reuters) - A Bank of France study on Friday highlighted concerns about the U.S. current account deficit and suggested a change in policy mix to address a problem that exchange rate moves had yet to correct.

"The U.S. current account deficit is a source of concern for the world economy," it said.

"The risk that the U.S. external debt is unsustainable gives rise to fears of an abrupt exchange-rate adjustment, with harmful consequences for financial markets and the real economies of its trade partners, notably the euro zone."

It said that the decline in the dollar's effective exchange rate seen since 2002 had not been enough to erode the deficit and added that simulations by a model suggested that a big currency move would be needed to have a significant impact.

"... the cost in terms of activity (of such currency moves) would be significant for its partners," the study added.

...more...

[Gary A]

I think the French should worry about their own problems;

France is living beyond her means, a report prepared by former BNP Paribas chief executive Michel Pebereau, for the French Treasury, announced. The "financial situation today appears to be very worrying" and will spiral out of control unless a freeze is put on public spending over the next five years.

In 1980 the national debt was just 20% of the GDP but this year is set to reach 66% (€1.2 trillion), rising faster than any other country over the past decade.

The big boys will not sleep and be caught, but the myriad others in the US likely will wake up all blinky eyed and promptly start shaking like dogs pooping peach seeds.

Here's something cheery;

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?typ...

PARIS, Oct 13 (Reuters) - A Bank of France study on Friday highlighted concerns about the U.S. current account deficit and suggested a change in policy mix to address a problem that exchange rate moves had yet to correct.

"The U.S. current account deficit is a source of concern for the world economy," it said.

"The risk that the U.S. external debt is unsustainable gives rise to fears of an abrupt exchange-rate adjustment, with harmful consequences for financial markets and the real economies of its trade partners, notably the euro zone."

It said that the decline in the dollar's effective exchange rate seen since 2002 had not been enough to erode the deficit and added that simulations by a model suggested that a big currency move would be needed to have a significant impact.

"... the cost in terms of activity (of such currency moves) would be significant for its partners," the study added.

...more...

[Naam]

"The big boys will not sleep and be caught but the myriad others in the US likely will wake up..."

sure! the big boys will sell during a dark night all their dollars to the Klingon Empire and bribe Captain Picard to transport all the cash on board the Enterprise before the sun rises and the myriad of others wake up.

one more joke for the road please!

[NovaBlue05]

I can see a scenario of the Chinese saying bluntly: "You can transfer Alaska to us, and your debt will be cancelled".

or Taiwan perhaps

[Old Man River]

The national debt is actually quite small when compared to the GDP.

Not according to "the nation's CPA," the Comptroller General. He calculates the national debt as 29 trillion, and balooning out of control. The 8 or 9 trillion that people quote is the tip of the iceberg.

Also, the whole scenario of comparing the national debt to the GDP is (IMHO) apples to organges. It makes a god out of GDP, when we're really talking about TAXES paying off the debt, or nobody never paying nothing, and just rolling over more t-bonds by printing more of them.

Okay, back to the baht. Let's say that by the end of next year, the US$ falls ten or twenty or even forty percent against the euro or the pound. How would such a weak dollar compare against the baht?

PeaceBlondie, I have taken note of your question, but so far nobody has answered it as discussions have taken a more macro route. Specifically, I don't have the answer either, but generally, we can expect the THB vis a vis the USD to remain stable. If the USD weakens the THB would also weaken. This shows in the yield curves. The THB yield curve (reflecting interest rates) is flattening out, which means that THB interest rates are not expected to increase over the next several years. The same is happening with the USD interest rates as analysts think that USD interest rates will stop the steady rise we have seen over the past few years. Falling interest rates normally means a weakening currency. Thailand is currently being supported by its exports. Exporters prefer a stable currency vis a vis the main currency used in their exports (regardless of which countries they export to). Therefore, in general, if the USD weakens, we would expect to see a corresponding weakening of the THB.

The above holds true as long as the USD remains the main currency used for sales of Thai products. If this changes, then the THB would more closely track that currency.

[backflip]

"Falling interest rates normally means a weakening currency. "

From which institution of higher education did you study economics? That statement is so wrong, from any angle.

[cclub75]

De bunking the doom and gloom crowd;

http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/js4150.htm

Aren't you bored to swim like this, with such an aisance, in the pink water of the governement's swiming pool ?

I mean, you sound like CNBC ! It's depressing.

-debt / budget deficit

Wich one ? The official one (that you repeat) or the "real" one ?

The hot potatoe is called "off balance". Medicare + Social Security for all baby boomers (they are 78 millions waiting to go in retirement)...

How you call that ? A future debt ? Liabilities ? Or a small amount of dust, that we could easilly put under the carpet ?

Wake up.

Total liabilities are at least 46 trillions !

Look at page 8 of the government report for fiscal year 2004 (ended 30 september 2004), "Liabilities and Additional Responsibilities".

www.gao.gov/financial/04frusg.pdf

With such a balance sheet, a private company would first go Bankrupt, and then enter into the museum of insane figures.

-budget deficit

Which one ? The official or the audited one ? For 2005 :

318 billions deficit (official)

736 billions deficit (audited)

3500 billions deficit if you include medicare+social security

http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/...t03.art_dom.htm

Etc. etc. I could continue about :

-inflation (the CPI scam, change of calculation methods under Clinton's administration)

-taxes collection : an effect of the real inflation

but this time, I would sound too depressing.

But don't be jaleous. We do exactly the same in... Europe.

Now, if you ask for real doomsday scenarios, here are some :

At that point, in front of such financial crazyness, we have only a few solutions :

-1 a global war

-2 a natural disaster (meteorite, volcano or a virus that would kill all eldery people)

-3 hyper mega inflation : you will be, you will feel rich with trucks of USD paper...

-4 a change of paradigm : Alien civilization coming on Earth, discovery of a new and endless energy source.

My personal bet : number 3 would be fine. At least to gain time... Bernanke said it before : "Dollar by helicopters"...

Edited October 16, 2006 by cclub75

[lannarebirth]

This thread seems to be coming true.

From its start in July, we are now half way to Christmas, and what are we seeing?

Dollar slipped 10% relative to the pound and baht (which are my income and expenditure currencies), US housing market stalled, corn futures up 30% and wheat futures up 40%.

Presumably, next comes a lot of Americans realising they are in negative equity on their houses, and higher food prices pushing up the true inflation rate.

What will the reactions be?

I am staying to watch the second half of this performance, and meanwhile buying all the gold that I can afford whilst it is so cheap.

Looks like we are in for bumper rice and sugarcane harvests here.

Bangkok floods, but our crops thrive, and we have been getting fish for free just by picking them up from where the overflow from the storm drain comes along the side of the soi.

Corn and wheat going up should help to raise the demand for rice and its price. But I have no faith in the sugar price holding up if times turn hard, as 60% of it goes into fizzy drinks and people can cut those out of their purchasing very easily.

The thing about the Pound is, it's got those 2 weekly gaps (circled) in it's chart. It's never not filled a gap in it's chart, at least for the 30 years of data I have. If it does, or how, is the question. Good luck.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$xbp...&listNum=10

Hmmmm, think I posted that chart wrongly. This oughta work:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XBP...&a=48806132

[lannarebirth]

This thread seems to be coming true.

From its start in July, we are now half way to Christmas, and what are we seeing?

Dollar slipped 10% relative to the pound and baht (which are my income and expenditure currencies), US housing market stalled, corn futures up 30% and wheat futures up 40%.

Presumably, next comes a lot of Americans realising they are in negative equity on their houses, and higher food prices pushing up the true inflation rate.

What will the reactions be?

I am staying to watch the second half of this performance, and meanwhile buying all the gold that I can afford whilst it is so cheap.

Looks like we are in for bumper rice and sugarcane harvests here.

Bangkok floods, but our crops thrive, and we have been getting fish for free just by picking them up from where the overflow from the storm drain comes along the side of the soi.

Corn and wheat going up should help to raise the demand for rice and its price. But I have no faith in the sugar price holding up if times turn hard, as 60% of it goes into fizzy drinks and people can cut those out of their purchasing very easily.

How do you figure that this thread has been coming true? The dollar has not slipped 10% versus the pound nor other major currencies since the start of this thread, in fact it has been flat against the pound and has strenghened slighthly against the Yen, Euro, and gold. The thread was started on July 9 when one dollar would buy you 114 Yen, 0.78 Euros, or 0.54 Pounds and an ounce of gold costs $629. Today one dollar will buy you 119 Yen, 0.80 Euros, or 0.54 Pounds and an ounce of gold costs $576.

With perhaps, better days ahead. TWT:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...2&listNum=1

Posted that one wrong too:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...&a=63893762

[Gary A]

The bottom line is that I worked all my life and paid into the SS system so that I could be assured a pension in my later years. That time has nearly arrived and I expect no less than was promised to me. I fully expect the US government to make good on its promise.

[cclub75]

The bottom line is that I worked all my life and paid into the SS system so that I could be assured a pension in my later years. That time has nearly arrived and I expect no less than was promised to me. I fully expect the US government to make good on its promise.

Sure Gary. It will do it. The governement will keep its promise.

It's so easy to print dollar bills. They own the press.

You will have your pension... But, meanwhile, its value will decrease, year after year because of inflation.

Meanwhile in Europe, they are going to push back the age of retirement (60 years average now, in France for instance), reduce the amount of pensions, and increase taxations to finance thoses pensions. Of course, nobody agree (who would it ?)

But I can't stop thinking : your reaction, as a future retiree, is very interesting.

You don't care about the macro economic situation, you don't care that in 1 generation life expectancy has gained a dozen of years, that medical technologies are more efficient but much more costly etc. You just want your pension.

It's human. But now you start to understand why this bonzi scheme is doomed : because you are in the US alone 78 millions people of the same generation who share the same views.

Uncle Sam will give it to you : with crispy 100 USD bills.

[bkkandrew]

The bottom line is that I worked all my life and paid into the SS system so that I could be assured a pension in my later years. That time has nearly arrived and I expect no less than was promised to me. I fully expect the US government to make good on its promise.

Ha ha ho ho hum...

I expect the UK goventment to do likewise. But am not holding my breath. They have already increased retirement age once and are expecting to do so again soon.

Money is not produced from a hat a la the magic trick!

[bkkandrew]

The bottom line is that I worked all my life and paid into the SS system so that I could be assured a pension in my later years. That time has nearly arrived and I expect no less than was promised to me. I fully expect the US government to make good on its promise.

Sure Gary. It will do it. The governement will keep its promise.

It's so easy to print dollar bills. They own the press.

You will have your pension... But, meanwhile, its value will decrease, year after year because of inflation.

Meanwhile in Europe, they are going to push back the age of retirement (60 years average now, in France for instance), reduce the amount of pensions, and increase taxations to finance thoses pensions. Of course, nobody agree (who would it ?)

But I can't stop thinking : your reaction, as a future retiree, is very interesting.

You don't care about the macro economic situation, you don't care that in 1 generation life expectancy has gained a dozen of years, that medical technologies are more efficient but much more costly etc. You just want your pension.

It's human. But now you start to understand why this bonzi scheme is doomed : because you are in the US alone 78 millions people of the same generation who share the same views.

Uncle Sam will give it to you : with crispy 100 USD bills.

Sorry, you got in before me. Agree 100%