Most of the rice tested in government warehouses 'substandard'

[balo]

The cheap rice I bought at Tesco were full of crawling insects , never happened to me elsewhere.

Edited August 26, 2014 by balo

[Robby nz]

Can the smartest man in the room put up his hand... Oh sorry ML Panadda Diskul, permanent secretary at the PM's Office that is NOT YOU.

Can someone explain to me how this bullshit goes. The claims by ML Panadda Diskul are of a destitute situation, along with everyone in "power now"!!! BUT but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but

can someone explain to me why the recent auctions yeilded as per the BP today, not to mention name, the business section, lead story. Bidders offered 28.50 baht per kilogram for Horm Mali, and 11.50 baht per ton for standard white rice, when the Thaksin program was buying at 15 baht per ton. I can see that this project will potentially make money, not that any of the sycophants would let us know. This whole last 12 months has and will continue to be nothing but a giant fraudulent attempt to ensure the rural base do not ever get a leg up.

Your load of buts have failed to take into account the cost of processing, storage, cartage auctions and all the other costs associated with getting the rice to a buyer.

Attempting to compare the price paid to the farmer to the present bids completely ignores the above.

The last estimate I read from an independent source was a cost of 29,600 B per ton for all grades of rice.

Hom Mali only represents a small percentage of the Thai crop.

For those of you who still think Thailand has the best rice in the world read http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Cambodian-Jasmine-rice-wins-worlds-best-30220305.html

[Robby nz]

They have 18 MILLION tonnes.

So, if you were to buy 100,000 tonnes. How many samples would you fancy for pesticides?

10? So. 18mn with a sample every 10,000.

Do the maths.

Evsluating visual effects from 1000 samples in 18 MILLION tonnes means nothing. In fact less than nothing. They took sample from 1000 sacks. Phooooowee.

BIIIIIIG sample.

That doesn't even make one sample per warehouse.

Long time ago I studied math and I still vaguely remember statistics and stochastics with mathematical models to calculate the chance you would come to the wrong conclusion based on expectations on the spread of the value of your samples as put in easy layman's terms. I always liked the Student t-distribution

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student%27s_t-distribution

It's simple really. Just like when Dr. Weir explained his faster-than-light drive

""In layman's terms, you use a rotating magnetic field to

focus a narrow beam of gravitons; these in turn fold space-time consistent

with Weyl tensor dynamics until the space-time curvature becomes infinitely

large and you have a singularity ...""

The key is to get a random sample that is representative for the total population; not some samples from a few selected warehouses.

If the samples are not completely random or not representative then the t-distribution cannot be applied.

They are not random samples they are samples from all warehouses inspected.

[rubl]

They have 18 MILLION tonnes.

So, if you were to buy 100,000 tonnes. How many samples would you fancy for pesticides?

10? So. 18mn with a sample every 10,000.

Do the maths.

Evsluating visual effects from 1000 samples in 18 MILLION tonnes means nothing. In fact less than nothing. They took sample from 1000 sacks. Phooooowee.

BIIIIIIG sample.

That doesn't even make one sample per warehouse.

Long time ago I studied math and I still vaguely remember statistics and stochastics with mathematical models to calculate the chance you would come to the wrong conclusion based on expectations on the spread of the value of your samples as put in easy layman's terms. I always liked the Student t-distribution

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student%27s_t-distribution

It's simple really. Just like when Dr. Weir explained his faster-than-light drive

""In layman's terms, you use a rotating magnetic field to

focus a narrow beam of gravitons; these in turn fold space-time consistent

with Weyl tensor dynamics until the space-time curvature becomes infinitely

large and you have a singularity ...""

The key is to get a random sample that is representative for the total population; not some samples from a few selected warehouses.

If the samples are not completely random or not representative then the t-distribution cannot be applied.

They are not random samples they are samples from all warehouses inspected.

Although my reply was a bit tongue-in-cheek, there a lot of truth there as well.

Scientifically you start with defining your problem, assumptions, how you want to proceed, why that approach is valid, etc., etc.

Here we have to assume that the samples were made 'at random' in all those warehouses whre samples were taken. Assuming that the samples were taken randomly than having 25% fail is unacceptable. If not random than at least from a perception point of view customers are simply scared away by such figures and probably correctly so.

When someone offers you a lot of 1000 items of XYZ and tell you 'only' 25% is faulty, you lose interest. If 2.5% is faulty you might consider or ask for a discount.

The same goes for these samples. Even if not really at random, the fact that so many 'faulty' samples could be taken already leads to a loss of potential customers and to a tremendous price pressure.

BTW we had something similar in quality checks with the tabletPCs

"Under the rules of the inspection, Chinnaphat said 500 units would be selected randomly from every 35,000 units, and only seven units were allowed to fail the test for the 35,000-unit lot to pass."

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/572375-second-shipment-of-730000-tablet-computers-arrive-in-thailand/

Edited August 26, 2014 by rubl

[lapd]

What a load of #$%^&!!!!!!!

Thai rice is one of the best in the world, that's why most of the best chef's use Jasmine (Thai ) rice, how-come now there's a new kid on the block say's most of it is substandard? Cause the farmers that produce it aren't doing anything different,,, but now some who ever, paid by the powers that be is now claiming this,,, WHAT A STEAMING PILE OF HORSE SH*T...

Since you started with a false premise, what you wrote ended up being the steaming pile of ...

The Yingluck government promised to pay different amounts based on different types of rice: THB 20,000 per ton for Hom Mali rice (Jasmine, long grain), THB 18,000 per ton for provincial fragrant rice, THB 16,000 per ton for Pathum Thani rice (long grain glutinous), THB 15,000-16,000 per ton for glutinous and THB 13,800 - 15,000 per ton for white rice.

Most farmers, being smart, figured out that the cheapest to grow is the lowest grade, which is what they did. Many who were growing higher grades switched to white rice to get this giveaway where global prices didn't matter.

Hence, the stockpile the NCPO has to now deal with is primarily the lowest grade of rice. In addition, it has also been stored improperly.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Fun fact. All de-husked rice is brown rice. White rice is brown rice with one more layer removed. Doesn't have anything to do with the farmers as far as I know. Done at the processors.

Edited August 26, 2014 by lapd

[Thai at Heart]

Can the smartest man in the room put up his hand... Oh sorry ML Panadda Diskul, permanent secretary at the PM's Office that is NOT YOU.

Can someone explain to me how this bullshit goes. The claims by ML Panadda Diskul are of a destitute situation, along with everyone in "power now"!!! BUT but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but

can someone explain to me why the recent auctions yeilded as per the BP today, not to mention name, the business section, lead story. Bidders offered 28.50 baht per kilogram for Horm Mali, and 11.50 baht per ton for standard white rice, when the Thaksin program was buying at 15 baht per ton. I can see that this project will potentially make money, not that any of the sycophants would let us know. This whole last 12 months has and will continue to be nothing but a giant fraudulent attempt to ensure the rural base do not ever get a leg up.

Your load of buts have failed to take into account the cost of processing, storage, cartage auctions and all the other costs associated with getting the rice to a buyer.

Attempting to compare the price paid to the farmer to the present bids completely ignores the above.

The last estimate I read from an independent source was a cost of 29,600 B per ton for all grades of rice.

Hom Mali only represents a small percentage of the Thai crop.

For those of you who still think Thailand has the best rice in the world read http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Cambodian-Jasmine-rice-wins-worlds-best-30220305.html

15k per tonne was offered for top quality hom Mali, which after processing and storage gets around 30k, so that price is in line.

They haven't announced what other grades they have on hand so maybe 15k would probably equate to something they paid 5k for from the farmer. Who knows but at 29k, its online to get close to break even.

[Robby nz]

Can the smartest man in the room put up his hand... Oh sorry ML Panadda Diskul, permanent secretary at the PM's Office that is NOT YOU.

Can someone explain to me how this bullshit goes. The claims by ML Panadda Diskul are of a destitute situation, along with everyone in "power now"!!! BUT but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but

can someone explain to me why the recent auctions yeilded as per the BP today, not to mention name, the business section, lead story. Bidders offered 28.50 baht per kilogram for Horm Mali, and 11.50 baht per ton for standard white rice, when the Thaksin program was buying at 15 baht per ton. I can see that this project will potentially make money, not that any of the sycophants would let us know. This whole last 12 months has and will continue to be nothing but a giant fraudulent attempt to ensure the rural base do not ever get a leg up.

Your load of buts have failed to take into account the cost of processing, storage, cartage auctions and all the other costs associated with getting the rice to a buyer.

Attempting to compare the price paid to the farmer to the present bids completely ignores the above.

The last estimate I read from an independent source was a cost of 29,600 B per ton for all grades of rice.

Hom Mali only represents a small percentage of the Thai crop.

For those of you who still think Thailand has the best rice in the world read http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Cambodian-Jasmine-rice-wins-worlds-best-30220305.html

15k per tonne was offered for top quality hom Mali, which after processing and storage gets around 30k, so that price is in line.

They haven't announced what other grades they have on hand so maybe 15k would probably equate to something they paid 5k for from the farmer. Who knows but at 29k, its online to get close to break even.

I understood that in fact the prices offered by the previous Govt varied as per post 147 by Old Man River

" The Yingluck government promised to pay different amounts based on different types of rice: THB 20,000 per ton for Hom Mali rice (Jasmine, long grain), THB 18,000 per ton for provincial fragrant rice, THB 16,000 per ton for Pathum Thani rice (long grain glutinous), THB 15,000-16,000 per ton for glutinous and THB 13,800 - 15,000 per ton for white rice."

I also was of the impression that these prices were paid to the mill, who at times and depending on moisture content among other things, paid the farmer less.

Whatever way you look at it there is a massive loss to the country.

[Old Man River]

What a load of #$%^&!!!!!!!

Thai rice is one of the best in the world, that's why most of the best chef's use Jasmine (Thai ) rice, how-come now there's a new kid on the block say's most of it is substandard? Cause the farmers that produce it aren't doing anything different,,, but now some who ever, paid by the powers that be is now claiming this,,, WHAT A STEAMING PILE OF HORSE SH*T...

Since you started with a false premise, what you wrote ended up being the steaming pile of ...

The Yingluck government promised to pay different amounts based on different types of rice: THB 20,000 per ton for Hom Mali rice (Jasmine, long grain), THB 18,000 per ton for provincial fragrant rice, THB 16,000 per ton for Pathum Thani rice (long grain glutinous), THB 15,000-16,000 per ton for glutinous and THB 13,800 - 15,000 per ton for white rice.

Most farmers, being smart, figured out that the cheapest to grow is the lowest grade, which is what they did. Many who were growing higher grades switched to white rice to get this giveaway where global prices didn't matter.

Hence, the stockpile the NCPO has to now deal with is primarily the lowest grade of rice. In addition, it has also been stored improperly.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Fun fact. All de-husked rice is brown rice. White rice is brown rice with one more layer removed. Doesn't have anything to do with the farmers as far as I know. Done at the processors.

Additional fun fact:

While I don't have a clue, my source is the "Handbook on Rice Policy for Asia" which was written by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). It is headquartered in the Philippines, has facilities in several countries, and was founded in 1959 by the Ford Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation. I found it on google.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[Thai at Heart]

Can the smartest man in the room put up his hand... Oh sorry ML Panadda Diskul, permanent secretary at the PM's Office that is NOT YOU.

Can someone explain to me how this bullshit goes. The claims by ML Panadda Diskul are of a destitute situation, along with everyone in "power now"!!! BUT but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but

can someone explain to me why the recent auctions yeilded as per the BP today, not to mention name, the business section, lead story. Bidders offered 28.50 baht per kilogram for Horm Mali, and 11.50 baht per ton for standard white rice, when the Thaksin program was buying at 15 baht per ton. I can see that this project will potentially make money, not that any of the sycophants would let us know. This whole last 12 months has and will continue to be nothing but a giant fraudulent attempt to ensure the rural base do not ever get a leg up.

Your load of buts have failed to take into account the cost of processing, storage, cartage auctions and all the other costs associated with getting the rice to a buyer.

Attempting to compare the price paid to the farmer to the present bids completely ignores the above.

The last estimate I read from an independent source was a cost of 29,600 B per ton for all grades of rice.

Hom Mali only represents a small percentage of the Thai crop.

For those of you who still think Thailand has the best rice in the world read http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Cambodian-Jasmine-rice-wins-worlds-best-30220305.html

15k per tonne was offered for top quality hom Mali, which after processing and storage gets around 30k, so that price is in line.

They haven't announced what other grades they have on hand so maybe 15k would probably equate to something they paid 5k for from the farmer. Who knows but at 29k, its online to get close to break even.

I understood that in fact the prices offered by the previous Govt varied as per post 147 by Old Man River

" The Yingluck government promised to pay different amounts based on different types of rice: THB 20,000 per ton for Hom Mali rice (Jasmine, long grain), THB 18,000 per ton for provincial fragrant rice, THB 16,000 per ton for Pathum Thani rice (long grain glutinous), THB 15,000-16,000 per ton for glutinous and THB 13,800 - 15,000 per ton for white rice."

I also was of the impression that these prices were paid to the mill, who at times and depending on moisture content among other things, paid the farmer less.

Whatever way you look at it there is a massive loss to the country.

Indeed, those prices were driven by moisture content, so god knows exactly to the baht what they have paid per tonne for all the different types.

Despite Thaksin's best explanation, it was never going to break even, so losses were inevitable, but that is what subsidies do. They generate losses, and that in and of itself doesn't make the system some nasty evil thing.

The complete lack of structure with quotas and control of what types are grown are what has sunk the whole thing, and in the style of Thai agribusiness I don't see any farmer taking firm instruction from the govt. Quotas are the only way the manage this type of thing.

Edited August 28, 2014 by Thai at Heart

[rubl]

15k per tonne was offered for top quality hom Mali, which after processing and storage gets around 30k, so that price is in line.

They haven't announced what other grades they have on hand so maybe 15k would probably equate to something they paid 5k for from the farmer. Who knows but at 29k, its online to get close to break even.

I understood that in fact the prices offered by the previous Govt varied as per post 147 by Old Man River

" The Yingluck government promised to pay different amounts based on different types of rice: THB 20,000 per ton for Hom Mali rice (Jasmine, long grain), THB 18,000 per ton for provincial fragrant rice, THB 16,000 per ton for Pathum Thani rice (long grain glutinous), THB 15,000-16,000 per ton for glutinous and THB 13,800 - 15,000 per ton for white rice."

I also was of the impression that these prices were paid to the mill, who at times and depending on moisture content among other things, paid the farmer less.

Whatever way you look at it there is a massive loss to the country.

Indeed, those prices were driven by moisture content, so god knows exactly to the baht what they have paid per tonne for all the different types.

Despite Thaksin's best explanation, it was never going to break even, so losses were inevitable, but that is what subsidies do. They generate losses, and that in and of itself doesn't make the system some nasty evil thing.

The complete lack of structure with quotas and control of what types are grown are what has sunk the whole thing, and in the style of Thai agribusiness I don't see any farmer taking firm instruction from the govt. Quotas are the only way the manage this type of thing.

One more time, the RPPS was NOT a subsidy. It was a magnificent plan, financially self-supporting with a possibility of profit starting with a revolving funds of 500 Billion Baht. Pay out from it and restore from the sales of rice. Magnificent. Wish more governments could come of with such sound ideas.

Meanwhile down here on Earth we wonder about the acknowledged loss of 500 billion Baht with a further gap of possibly 380 - 500 billion Baht which might not be recovered from sales of remaining rice. The total loss including fund management, interest and repayment might reach 700++ billion although one trillion seems unlikely.

BTW as Robby wrote, your "15k per tonne was offered for top quality hom Mali" was a bit off, only 33.33% though.

[Old Man River]

15k per tonne was offered for top quality hom Mali, which after processing and storage gets around 30k, so that price is in line.

They haven't announced what other grades they have on hand so maybe 15k would probably equate to something they paid 5k for from the farmer. Who knows but at 29k, its online to get close to break even.

I understood that in fact the prices offered by the previous Govt varied as per post 147 by Old Man River

" The Yingluck government promised to pay different amounts based on different types of rice: THB 20,000 per ton for Hom Mali rice (Jasmine, long grain), THB 18,000 per ton for provincial fragrant rice, THB 16,000 per ton for Pathum Thani rice (long grain glutinous), THB 15,000-16,000 per ton for glutinous and THB 13,800 - 15,000 per ton for white rice."

I also was of the impression that these prices were paid to the mill, who at times and depending on moisture content among other things, paid the farmer less.

Whatever way you look at it there is a massive loss to the country.

Indeed, those prices were driven by moisture content, so god knows exactly to the baht what they have paid per tonne for all the different types.

Despite Thaksin's best explanation, it was never going to break even, so losses were inevitable, but that is what subsidies do. They generate losses, and that in and of itself doesn't make the system some nasty evil thing.

The complete lack of structure with quotas and control of what types are grown are what has sunk the whole thing, and in the style of Thai agribusiness I don't see any farmer taking firm instruction from the govt. Quotas are the only way the manage this type of thing.

One more time, the RPPS was NOT a subsidy. It was a magnificent plan, financially self-supporting with a possibility of profit starting with a revolving funds of 500 Billion Baht. Pay out from it and restore from the sales of rice. Magnificent. Wish more governments could come of with such sound ideas.

Once this "magnificent" plan was shown to be a magnificent failure (India's resumption of Basmati exports), why did the PTP continue it?

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[Robby nz]

I also was of the impression that these prices were paid to the mill, who at times and depending on moisture content among other things, paid the farmer less.

Whatever way you look at it there is a massive loss to the country.

Indeed, those prices were driven by moisture content, so god knows exactly to the baht what they have paid per tonne for all the different types.

Despite Thaksin's best explanation, it was never going to break even, so losses were inevitable, but that is what subsidies do. They generate losses, and that in and of itself doesn't make the system some nasty evil thing.

The complete lack of structure with quotas and control of what types are grown are what has sunk the whole thing, and in the style of Thai agribusiness I don't see any farmer taking firm instruction from the govt. Quotas are the only way the manage this type of thing.

One more time, the RPPS was NOT a subsidy. It was a magnificent plan, financially self-supporting with a possibility of profit starting with a revolving funds of 500 Billion Baht. Pay out from it and restore from the sales of rice. Magnificent. Wish more governments could come of with such sound ideas.

Once this "magnificent" plan was shown to be a magnificent failure (India's resumption of Basmati exports), why did the PTP continue it?

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Mostly because Thaksin said it should continue, adding that in a few years the price would rise and a large profit would be made.

At the time he made that statement he was confident of getting his amnesty and PT remaining in Govt for at least another term, if not infinity.

Also confident in getting the 2.2 trillion some of which would have been used to cover up losses. The commerce minister at the time said (slipped up) as much, that loans from the infrastructure budget would be used.

Loss of face could have also had had something to do with it.

It should be noted that the Yingluck administration did try to lower the price paid to farmers to cut costs but the backlash from the farmers (their voters) put a stop to that idea.

Unfortunately I had a stuff up on my machine and lost my file on the rice scheme so cant provide links.

[Thai at Heart]

15k per tonne was offered for top quality hom Mali, which after processing and storage gets around 30k, so that price is in line.

They haven't announced what other grades they have on hand so maybe 15k would probably equate to something they paid 5k for from the farmer. Who knows but at 29k, its online to get close to break even.

I understood that in fact the prices offered by the previous Govt varied as per post 147 by Old Man River

" The Yingluck government promised to pay different amounts based on different types of rice: THB 20,000 per ton for Hom Mali rice (Jasmine, long grain), THB 18,000 per ton for provincial fragrant rice, THB 16,000 per ton for Pathum Thani rice (long grain glutinous), THB 15,000-16,000 per ton for glutinous and THB 13,800 - 15,000 per ton for white rice."

I also was of the impression that these prices were paid to the mill, who at times and depending on moisture content among other things, paid the farmer less.

Whatever way you look at it there is a massive loss to the country.

Indeed, those prices were driven by moisture content, so god knows exactly to the baht what they have paid per tonne for all the different types.

Despite Thaksin's best explanation, it was never going to break even, so losses were inevitable, but that is what subsidies do. They generate losses, and that in and of itself doesn't make the system some nasty evil thing.

The complete lack of structure with quotas and control of what types are grown are what has sunk the whole thing, and in the style of Thai agribusiness I don't see any farmer taking firm instruction from the govt. Quotas are the only way the manage this type of thing.

One more time, the RPPS was NOT a subsidy. It was a magnificent plan, financially self-supporting with a possibility of profit starting with a revolving funds of 500 Billion Baht. Pay out from it and restore from the sales of rice. Magnificent. Wish more governments could come of with such sound ideas.

Meanwhile down here on Earth we wonder about the acknowledged loss of 500 billion Baht with a further gap of possibly 380 - 500 billion Baht which might not be recovered from sales of remaining rice. The total loss including fund management, interest and repayment might reach 700++ billion although one trillion seems unlikely.

BTW as Robby wrote, your "15k per tonne was offered for top quality hom Mali" was a bit off, only 33.33% though.

To the farmers, it was subsidy. They don't give a damn whether or not there is a loss. Thaksin claimed that the thing could become self sustaining which is a very audacious idea. The final pricing of all of the types and grades were subject to cleanliness and moisture, so guessing the total loss versus the top prices quoted and the prices you can read on orzya.org is not going to give an accurate figure.

Either way it is going to be a lot, but whether it reflects 10, 20, or 70% of the final sale price is pretty difficult to do without very accurate figures. What does a warehouse charge for a tonne of stored rice per year? I haven't got the foggiest.

Here are the prices today

Thailand 100% grade B - 455-465 - 14,560

Thailand parboiled 100% pxb - 440-450 - 14,058

Thailand Hom Mali 92% - 1055-1065 = 33,867

Until we know what they paid, on the average for everything with all the types broken down, it can't be calculated accurately.

Edited August 28, 2014 by Thai at Heart

[Old Man River]

I also was of the impression that these prices were paid to the mill, who at times and depending on moisture content among other things, paid the farmer less.

Whatever way you look at it there is a massive loss to the country.

Indeed, those prices were driven by moisture content, so god knows exactly to the baht what they have paid per tonne for all the different types.

Despite Thaksin's best explanation, it was never going to break even, so losses were inevitable, but that is what subsidies do. They generate losses, and that in and of itself doesn't make the system some nasty evil thing.

The complete lack of structure with quotas and control of what types are grown are what has sunk the whole thing, and in the style of Thai agribusiness I don't see any farmer taking firm instruction from the govt. Quotas are the only way the manage this type of thing.

One more time, the RPPS was NOT a subsidy. It was a magnificent plan, financially self-supporting with a possibility of profit starting with a revolving funds of 500 Billion Baht. Pay out from it and restore from the sales of rice. Magnificent. Wish more governments could come of with such sound ideas.

Once this "magnificent" plan was shown to be a magnificent failure (India's resumption of Basmati exports), why did the PTP continue it?

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Mostly because Thaksin said it should continue, adding that in a few years the price would rise and a large profit would be made.

At the time he made that statement he was confident of getting his amnesty and PT remaining in Govt for at least another term, if not infinity.

Also confident in getting the 2.2 trillion some of which would have been used to cover up losses. The commerce minister at the time said (slipped up) as much, that loans from the infrastructure budget would be used.

Loss of face could have also had had something to do with it.

It should be noted that the Yingluck administration did try to lower the price paid to farmers to cut costs but the backlash from the farmers (their voters) put a stop to that idea.

Unfortunately I had a stuff up on my machine and lost my file on the rice scheme so cant provide links.

No links necessary, I am already aware.

On YL lowering price paid to farmers, that so called attempt only came after the IMF report.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[rubl]

Indeed, those prices were driven by moisture content, so god knows exactly to the baht what they have paid per tonne for all the different types.

Despite Thaksin's best explanation, it was never going to break even, so losses were inevitable, but that is what subsidies do. They generate losses, and that in and of itself doesn't make the system some nasty evil thing.

The complete lack of structure with quotas and control of what types are grown are what has sunk the whole thing, and in the style of Thai agribusiness I don't see any farmer taking firm instruction from the govt. Quotas are the only way the manage this type of thing.

One more time, the RPPS was NOT a subsidy. It was a magnificent plan, financially self-supporting with a possibility of profit starting with a revolving funds of 500 Billion Baht. Pay out from it and restore from the sales of rice. Magnificent. Wish more governments could come of with such sound ideas.

Meanwhile down here on Earth we wonder about the acknowledged loss of 500 billion Baht with a further gap of possibly 380 - 500 billion Baht which might not be recovered from sales of remaining rice. The total loss including fund management, interest and repayment might reach 700++ billion although one trillion seems unlikely.

BTW as Robby wrote, your "15k per tonne was offered for top quality hom Mali" was a bit off, only 33.33% though.

To the farmers, it was subsidy. They don't give a damn whether or not there is a loss. Thaksin claimed that the thing could become self sustaining which is a very audacious idea. The final pricing of all of the types and grades were subject to cleanliness and moisture, so guessing the total loss versus the top prices quoted and the prices you can read on orzya.org is not going to give an accurate figure.

Either way it is going to be a lot, but whether it reflects 10, 20, or 70% of the final sale price is pretty difficult to do without very accurate figures. What does a warehouse charge for a tonne of stored rice per year? I haven't got the foggiest.

Here are the prices today

Thailand 100% grade B - 455-465 - 14,560

Thailand parboiled 100% pxb - 440-450 - 14,058

Thailand Hom Mali 92% - 1055-1065 = 33,867

Until we know what they paid, on the average for everything with all the types broken down, it can't be calculated accurately.

Oh come on T@H. The farmers thought it was a subsidy, really? Makes it all the more devious that Thaksin inspired Pheu Thai election bribe. Near criminal I'd say.

Anyway, it would seem we have at least on official loss of 500 billion Baht with a further gap of possibly 380 - 500 billion Baht which might not be recovered from sales of remaining rice. The total loss including fund management, interest and repayment might reach 700++ billion although one trillion seems unlikely.

Similar to the farmers I don't really care, whether it's 500, 700, or 1 000 billion Baht that is. THe Yingluck government positioned this RPPS scam as cost neutral, which to me in my innocence mean 'no loss', not even one single Baht.

[Thai at Heart]

Indeed, those prices were driven by moisture content, so god knows exactly to the baht what they have paid per tonne for all the different types.

Despite Thaksin's best explanation, it was never going to break even, so losses were inevitable, but that is what subsidies do. They generate losses, and that in and of itself doesn't make the system some nasty evil thing.

The complete lack of structure with quotas and control of what types are grown are what has sunk the whole thing, and in the style of Thai agribusiness I don't see any farmer taking firm instruction from the govt. Quotas are the only way the manage this type of thing.

One more time, the RPPS was NOT a subsidy. It was a magnificent plan, financially self-supporting with a possibility of profit starting with a revolving funds of 500 Billion Baht. Pay out from it and restore from the sales of rice. Magnificent. Wish more governments could come of with such sound ideas.

Meanwhile down here on Earth we wonder about the acknowledged loss of 500 billion Baht with a further gap of possibly 380 - 500 billion Baht which might not be recovered from sales of remaining rice. The total loss including fund management, interest and repayment might reach 700++ billion although one trillion seems unlikely.

BTW as Robby wrote, your "15k per tonne was offered for top quality hom Mali" was a bit off, only 33.33% though.

To the farmers, it was subsidy. They don't give a damn whether or not there is a loss. Thaksin claimed that the thing could become self sustaining which is a very audacious idea. The final pricing of all of the types and grades were subject to cleanliness and moisture, so guessing the total loss versus the top prices quoted and the prices you can read on orzya.org is not going to give an accurate figure.

Either way it is going to be a lot, but whether it reflects 10, 20, or 70% of the final sale price is pretty difficult to do without very accurate figures. What does a warehouse charge for a tonne of stored rice per year? I haven't got the foggiest.

Here are the prices today

Thailand 100% grade B - 455-465 - 14,560

Thailand parboiled 100% pxb - 440-450 - 14,058

Thailand Hom Mali 92% - 1055-1065 = 33,867

Until we know what they paid, on the average for everything with all the types broken down, it can't be calculated accurately.

Oh come on T@H. The farmers thought it was a subsidy, really? Makes it all the more devious that Thaksin inspired Pheu Thai election bribe. Near criminal I'd say.

Anyway, it would seem we have at least on official loss of 500 billion Baht with a further gap of possibly 380 - 500 billion Baht which might not be recovered from sales of remaining rice. The total loss including fund management, interest and repayment might reach 700++ billion although one trillion seems unlikely.

Similar to the farmers I don't really care, whether it's 500, 700, or 1 000 billion Baht that is. THe Yingluck government positioned this RPPS scam as cost neutral, which to me in my innocence mean 'no loss', not even one single Baht.

The cost neutral idea was idiotic.

That said. Let's see. On orzya.com it stayed that China will import 30% more than last year, and that India has run down their stocks.

Reality is though, the Indians took away the demand for the stockpile of thai rice and its old now. I guess the world should get ready for some really cheap rice krispies in the next few years.

[rubl]

Oh come on T@H. The farmers thought it was a subsidy, really? Makes it all the more devious that Thaksin inspired Pheu Thai election bribe. Near criminal I'd say.

Anyway, it would seem we have at least on official loss of 500 billion Baht with a further gap of possibly 380 - 500 billion Baht which might not be recovered from sales of remaining rice. The total loss including fund management, interest and repayment might reach 700++ billion although one trillion seems unlikely.

Similar to the farmers I don't really care, whether it's 500, 700, or 1 000 billion Baht that is. THe Yingluck government positioned this RPPS scam as cost neutral, which to me in my innocence mean 'no loss', not even one single Baht.

The cost neutral idea was idiotic.

That said. Let's see. On orzya.com it stayed that China will import 30% more than last year, and that India has run down their stocks.

Reality is though, the Indians took away the demand for the stockpile of thai rice and its old now. I guess the world should get ready for some really cheap rice krispies in the next few years.

The cost neutral idea was idiotic. That said we should try to distract with other rubbish as this idiotic scam cost the nation 500 or 700++ billiob Baht, it's hard earned reputation and future contracts.

You're really something my dear T@H. As self professed business person I wonder about your reputation with all this whitewashing.

[Thai at Heart]

Oh come on T@H. The farmers thought it was a subsidy, really? Makes it all the more devious that Thaksin inspired Pheu Thai election bribe. Near criminal I'd say.

Anyway, it would seem we have at least on official loss of 500 billion Baht with a further gap of possibly 380 - 500 billion Baht which might not be recovered from sales of remaining rice. The total loss including fund management, interest and repayment might reach 700++ billion although one trillion seems unlikely.

Similar to the farmers I don't really care, whether it's 500, 700, or 1 000 billion Baht that is. THe Yingluck government positioned this RPPS scam as cost neutral, which to me in my innocence mean 'no loss', not even one single Baht.

The cost neutral idea was idiotic.

That said. Let's see. On orzya.com it stayed that China will import 30% more than last year, and that India has run down their stocks.

Reality is though, the Indians took away the demand for the stockpile of thai rice and its old now. I guess the world should get ready for some really cheap rice krispies in the next few years.

The cost neutral idea was idiotic. That said we should try to distract with other rubbish as this idiotic scam cost the nation 500 or 700++ billiob Baht, it's hard earned reputation and future contracts.

You're really something my dear T@H. As self professed business person I wonder about your reputation with all this whitewashing.

Governments aren't run like businesses. I think both you and I come from a part of the world where subsidies are very much part of agribusiness for many reasons.

One of which is the fact that is if a farmer is going to feed me, its quite useful for him to feed himself.

[JesseFrank]

Oh come on T@H. The farmers thought it was a subsidy, really? Makes it all the more devious that Thaksin inspired Pheu Thai election bribe. Near criminal I'd say.

Anyway, it would seem we have at least on official loss of 500 billion Baht with a further gap of possibly 380 - 500 billion Baht which might not be recovered from sales of remaining rice. The total loss including fund management, interest and repayment might reach 700++ billion although one trillion seems unlikely.

Similar to the farmers I don't really care, whether it's 500, 700, or 1 000 billion Baht that is. THe Yingluck government positioned this RPPS scam as cost neutral, which to me in my innocence mean 'no loss', not even one single Baht.

The cost neutral idea was idiotic.

That said. Let's see. On orzya.com it stayed that China will import 30% more than last year, and that India has run down their stocks.

Reality is though, the Indians took away the demand for the stockpile of thai rice and its old now. I guess the world should get ready for some really cheap rice krispies in the next few years.

The cost neutral idea was idiotic. That said we should try to distract with other rubbish as this idiotic scam cost the nation 500 or 700++ billiob Baht, it's hard earned reputation and future contracts.

You're really something my dear T@H. As self professed business person I wonder about your reputation with all this whitewashing.

Governments aren't run like businesses. I think both you and I come from a part of the world where subsidies are very much part of agribusiness for many reasons.

One of which is the fact that is if a farmer is going to feed me, its quite useful for him to feed himself.

Wasn't it Thaksin that shouted from the roofs to the international community that he ran the government like a business, and he was the CEO ?

[rubl]

Governments aren't run like businesses. I think both you and I come from a part of the world where subsidies are very much part of agribusiness for many reasons.

One of which is the fact that is if a farmer is going to feed me, its quite useful for him to feed himself.

Now please, could you pay attention for just a moment without trying to run around the fact that the RPPS was not a subsidy. Any time you mention subsidy you seem to try to negate the negative effect of the 500 or 700++ billion Baht lost in this idiotic brainchild of a criminal fugitive who running the country from abroad.

[JesseFrank]

Governments aren't run like businesses. I think both you and I come from a part of the world where subsidies are very much part of agribusiness for many reasons.

One of which is the fact that is if a farmer is going to feed me, its quite useful for him to feed himself.

Now please, could you pay attention for just a moment without trying to run around the fact that the RPPS was not a subsidy. Any time you mention subsidy you seem to try to negate the negative effect of the 500 or 700++ billion Baht lost in this idiotic brainchild of a criminal fugitive who running the country from abroad.

It is a known fact that TaH has moved abroad several years ago, so looking at his posts continuously apologizing the rice scam, would you think that .......................

[Thai at Heart]

Governments aren't run like businesses. I think both you and I come from a part of the world where subsidies are very much part of agribusiness for many reasons.

One of which is the fact that is if a farmer is going to feed me, its quite useful for him to feed himself.

Now please, could you pay attention for just a moment without trying to run around the fact that the RPPS was not a subsidy. Any time you mention subsidy you seem to try to negate the negative effect of the 500 or 700++ billion Baht lost in this idiotic brainchild of a criminal fugitive who running the country from abroad.

The final loss is as yet unknown. It will be big and can be accounted for. But there are 19mn tonnes to go.

Getting prices is hardly easy to do on these deals. Note the current junta now having to bend over backward to bail rubber farmers out. Sugar will be next.

Losses will be incurred. That's what governments do when they intervene into agriculture markets.

Edited August 29, 2014 by Thai at Heart

[rubl]

Governments aren't run like businesses. I think both you and I come from a part of the world where subsidies are very much part of agribusiness for many reasons.

One of which is the fact that is if a farmer is going to feed me, its quite useful for him to feed himself.

Now please, could you pay attention for just a moment without trying to run around the fact that the RPPS was not a subsidy. Any time you mention subsidy you seem to try to negate the negative effect of the 500 or 700++ billion Baht lost in this idiotic brainchild of a criminal fugitive who running the country from abroad.

The final loss is as yet unknown. It will be big and can be accounted for. But there are 19mn tonnes to go.

Getting prices is hardly easy to do on these deals. Note the current junta now having to bend over backward to bail rubber farmers out. Sugar will be next.

Losses will be incurred. That's what governments do when they intervene into agriculture markets.

Not many governments 'lose' 500 to 700++ billion Baht in 2-1/2 years especially when the 'scheme' had been positioned as 'self-financing'. Maybe Ms. Yingluck's Administration was just a little bit better is this type of BS than most governments?

Even the losses now incurred because the new government cannot simply drop farmers hurt by previous administrations mismanagement, should be squarely put on the tab the Yingluck Administration has been running up while stating to work on corruption, being transparent in its actions and utterly willing to bear responsibility.

[Thai at Heart]

Governments aren't run like businesses. I think both you and I come from a part of the world where subsidies are very much part of agribusiness for many reasons.

One of which is the fact that is if a farmer is going to feed me, its quite useful for him to feed himself.

Now please, could you pay attention for just a moment without trying to run around the fact that the RPPS was not a subsidy. Any time you mention subsidy you seem to try to negate the negative effect of the 500 or 700++ billion Baht lost in this idiotic brainchild of a criminal fugitive who running the country from abroad.

The final loss is as yet unknown. It will be big and can be accounted for. But there are 19mn tonnes to go.

Getting prices is hardly easy to do on these deals. Note the current junta now having to bend over backward to bail rubber farmers out. Sugar will be next.

Losses will be incurred. That's what governments do when they intervene into agriculture markets.

Not many governments 'lose' 500 to 700++ billion Baht in 2-1/2 years especially when the 'scheme' had been positioned as 'self-financing'. Maybe Ms. Yingluck's Administration was just a little bit better is this type of BS than most governments?

Even the losses now incurred because the new government cannot simply drop farmers hurt by previous administrations mismanagement, should be squarely put on the tab the Yingluck Administration has been running up while stating to work on corruption, being transparent in its actions and utterly willing to bear responsibility.

I am not defending the stupidity of predicting it to be self financing. Never have. It was always going to make a loss.

That in and of itself doesn't mean that all subsidies are by definition wrong or not ever to be used. Farming has a strategic importance to the country.

Car industry is protected to provide jobs for Thais. Why can't rice be protected?

[djjamie]

Governments aren't run like businesses. I think both you and I come from a part of the world where subsidies are very much part of agribusiness for many reasons.

One of which is the fact that is if a farmer is going to feed me, its quite useful for him to feed himself.

Now please, could you pay attention for just a moment without trying to run around the fact that the RPPS was not a subsidy. Any time you mention subsidy you seem to try to negate the negative effect of the 500 or 700++ billion Baht lost in this idiotic brainchild of a criminal fugitive who running the country from abroad.

The final loss is as yet unknown. It will be big and can be accounted for. But there are 19mn tonnes to go.

Getting prices is hardly easy to do on these deals. Note the current junta now having to bend over backward to bail rubber farmers out. Sugar will be next.

Losses will be incurred. That's what governments do when they intervene into agriculture markets.

Not many governments 'lose' 500 to 700++ billion Baht in 2-1/2 years especially when the 'scheme' had been positioned as 'self-financing'. Maybe Ms. Yingluck's Administration was just a little bit better is this type of BS than most governments?

Even the losses now incurred because the new government cannot simply drop farmers hurt by previous administrations mismanagement, should be squarely put on the tab the Yingluck Administration has been running up while stating to work on corruption, being transparent in its actions and utterly willing to bear responsibility.

A little trip down memory lane from the guy that promised never to be involved in politics again.

In 2012 the accused terrorist, accused mass murderer, convicted criminal fugitive said that the policy would reap economic gains equal to three times the programme's cost. He did not say maybe. He said it will. So that means he expected a return of 2.1 trillion dollars! Kinda what the infrastructure loan was going to equate to.

Edited August 29, 2014 by djjamie

[rubl]

The final loss is as yet unknown. It will be big and can be accounted for. But there are 19mn tonnes to go.

Getting prices is hardly easy to do on these deals. Note the current junta now having to bend over backward to bail rubber farmers out. Sugar will be next.

Losses will be incurred. That's what governments do when they intervene into agriculture markets.

Not many governments 'lose' 500 to 700++ billion Baht in 2-1/2 years especially when the 'scheme' had been positioned as 'self-financing'. Maybe Ms. Yingluck's Administration was just a little bit better is this type of BS than most governments?

Even the losses now incurred because the new government cannot simply drop farmers hurt by previous administrations mismanagement, should be squarely put on the tab the Yingluck Administration has been running up while stating to work on corruption, being transparent in its actions and utterly willing to bear responsibility.

I am not defending the stupidity of predicting it to be self financing. Never have. It was always going to make a loss.

That in and of itself doesn't mean that all subsidies are by definition wrong or not ever to be used. Farming has a strategic importance to the country.

Car industry is protected to provide jobs for Thais. Why can't rice be protected?

Read my lips "No subsidy, but a scam"

BTW ever heard of ASEAN and AEC apart from WHO and a few letters of the alphabet thrown together?

[rubl]

Not many governments 'lose' 500 to 700++ billion Baht in 2-1/2 years especially when the 'scheme' had been positioned as 'self-financing'. Maybe Ms. Yingluck's Administration was just a little bit better is this type of BS than most governments?

Even the losses now incurred because the new government cannot simply drop farmers hurt by previous administrations mismanagement, should be squarely put on the tab the Yingluck Administration has been running up while stating to work on corruption, being transparent in its actions and utterly willing to bear responsibility.

A little trip down memory lane from the guy that promised never to be involved in politics again.

In 2012 the accused terrorist, accused mass murderer, convicted criminal fugitive said that the policy would reap economic gains equal to three times the programme's cost. He did not say maybe. He said it will. So that means he expected a return of 2.1 trillion dollars! Kinda what the infrastructure loan was going to equate to.

Now, now, young master Jamie, don't be hasty.

It's 'only' Baht, not $$. Only a 500,000,000,000 to 700,000,000,000 ++ Baht loss. Peanuts as some have it.

[Thai at Heart]

http://thediplomat.com/2013/07/thai-rice-subsidies-disaster-in-the-making/

Just to keep the hyperbole under control

"Losses of usd4.4bn", but that was to last year.

Strewth.

Total Thai GDP was about 400 bn USD in 2013, so to give it round numbers 1% of GDP. Whether that is the total loss over 3 years I really can't be bothered, but then which case its 0.33% of GDP.

Which then isn't really a total loss because the money was spent in the economy with borrowed money which will be repaid over however many years the Thai govt borrows on average.

So........

[djjamie]

http://thediplomat.com/2013/07/thai-rice-subsidies-disaster-in-the-making/

Just to keep the hyperbole under control

"Losses of usd4.4bn", but that was to last year.

Strewth.

Total Thai GDP was about 400 bn USD in 2013, so to give it round numbers 1% of GDP. Whether that is the total loss over 3 years I really can't be bothered, but then which case its 0.33% of GDP.

Which then isn't really a total loss because the money was spent in the economy with borrowed money which will be repaid over however many years the Thai govt borrows on average.

So........

Fact - Shinawatra lead governments (yes, yes yingluck was the PM) have put 1.5 trillion baht into rice schemes over 14 years yet the farmers they purport to help miss one payment…I will reinforce that by repeating it, they missed ONE payment from the government and some farmers are committing suicide while the rest travel to Bangkok to protest. Doesn't sound like they are prospering.

So when these farmers came to Bangkok pleading for money to survive and the farmers that committed suicide because they missed one payment from the PTP then how about YOU tell them "Thailand's rice losses are .33% of GDP. I am sure that will make them feel much better.

To brush of the rice losses in Thailand with the GDP argument shows that the "human factor" is not in play in your mindset and it also shows that one prefers a regime that supports terrorism than one that supports the people that brought them to power. That supporter base being the farmers. This says more about the supporters of the PTP than the party itself.

Disgusting.

​So….A scheme that could have only been .000000000001% of GDP means nothing. It lost billions, it was supposed to have no irregularities according to the PTP, it did not help the farmers, it did nothing for Thailand yet is still defended with pathetic GDP excuses only shows beyond a shadow of a doubt the PTP ministry of propaganda was the most effective ministry in the PTP.

And to think, you're an educated westerner that should know better?

Edited August 29, 2014 by djjamie

[Thai at Heart]

http://thediplomat.com/2013/07/thai-rice-subsidies-disaster-in-the-making/

Just to keep the hyperbole under control

"Losses of usd4.4bn", but that was to last year.

Strewth.

Total Thai GDP was about 400 bn USD in 2013, so to give it round numbers 1% of GDP. Whether that is the total loss over 3 years I really can't be bothered, but then which case its 0.33% of GDP.

Which then isn't really a total loss because the money was spent in the economy with borrowed money which will be repaid over however many years the Thai govt borrows on average.

So........

Fact - Shinawatra lead governments (yes, yes yingluck was the PM) have put 1.5 trillion baht into rice schemes over 14 years yet the farmers they purport to help miss one paymentI will reinforce that by repeating it, they missed ONE payment from the government and some farmers are committing suicide while the rest travel to Bangkok to protest. Doesn't sound like they are prospering.

So when these farmers came to Bangkok pleading for money to survive and the farmers that committed suicide because they missed one payment from the PTP then how about YOU tell them "Thailand's rice losses are .33% of GDP. I am sure that will make them feel much better.

To brush of the rice losses in Thailand with the GDP argument shows that the "human factor" is not in play in your mindset and it also shows that one prefers a regime that supports terrorism than one that supports the people that brought them to power. That supporter base being the farmers. This says more about the supporters of the PTP than the party itself.

Disgusting.

​So.A scheme that could have only been .000000000001% of GDP means nothing. It lost billions, it was supposed to have no irregularities according to the PTP, it did not help the farmers, it did nothing for Thailand yet is still defended with pathetic GDP excuses only shows beyond a shadow of a doubt the PTP ministry of propaganda was the most effective ministry in the PTP.

And to think, you're an educated westerner that should know better?

I am not telling them anything. Somewhere else someone was claiming the loss was 2.2 tn USD. Which is a nonsense number. People claim this system broke the country and yet it cost 1% of GDP. Complete hyperbole.

The system was never going to be self funding but having seen the poverty out in the countryside I believe the govts should almost be paying old farmers to stop growing and give them a stipend. What is the point in them breaking their backs to produce something that the govt buys and they can't sell. If civil servants can retire at whatever age what is the point is a farmer living in poverty to grow something to survive that cannot be sold. It is cheaper and sociatelly better to let him stay home if he chooses.

Just give every rice farmer over the age of 55 a pension and get the supply down.