PM says Thailand must get out of “middle-income” trap in less than 12 years

[wandasloan]

Hardly an issue in the success of south Korea are they. Nor Japan. Singapore yes, but then Singapore posed itself as a haven for foreign investment.

Thailand had got itself into a neither fish nor fowl position.

Well, um, yes. That is exactly the problem identified by Yingluck nearly two years ago and now echoed by General Sarit.

There are ways this problem can be solved, since dozens of countries have already solved it. Yingluck provided a solution and General Sarit indicates he backs it 100%, as he backs pretty well all Yingluck-Thaksin solutions and projects. I would personally suggest that populism is NOT the best way to proceed, but that's the way they're going to try first, backed by massive government spending. The problem (and my problem) with this is that if this populism doesn't succeed, then they are really in trouble if they want to try again with a different approach.

.

[Thai at Heart]

Hardly an issue in the success of south Korea are they. Nor Japan. Singapore yes, but then Singapore posed itself as a haven for foreign investment.

Thailand had got itself into a neither fish nor fowl position.

Well, um, yes. That is exactly the problem identified by Yingluck nearly two years ago and now echoed by General Sarit.

There are ways this problem can be solved, since dozens of countries have already solved it. Yingluck provided a solution and General Sarit indicates he backs it 100%, as he backs pretty well all Yingluck-Thaksin solutions and projects. I would personally suggest that populism is NOT the best way to proceed, but that's the way they're going to try first, backed by massive government spending. The problem (and my problem) with this is that if this populism doesn't succeed, then they are really in trouble if they want to try again with a different approach.

.

Populism just redistributes money, it doesn't create wealth. Populism is not a way to get out of this conundrum. They need more economic activity to boost the economy back to 5% growth for another 20 years.

They need the next industry to attract to Thailand because there is no Thai Samsung or Hyundai.

They won't allow foreign banks or foreign businesses into something they could grow to become something unique to the region, so where do they turn?

Worlds largest rice and rubber exporter? Yippee.

[Moo2cm]

Military governments usually get these things right. It just takes a lot of time. Just look how long it took in Myanmar!

[Chris Lawrence]

Erosion of the middle class will ensure prosperity for foreign investors like those clapping hands above--it will mean more struggling Thai people will not get included in this prosperity package, because to keep Thailand "competitive" there has to be a low-wage workforce to compete with these other countries like Myanmar, which will be chosen as the cheapest or near cheapest investment center in the near future--so scary to those who want to continue to get such cheap labor and have such huge profit off their Thai workforce. The opposition to labor laws and security for middle income earners is conveniently gone, no opposition, and policies to protect investors who want a rich-poor divide will continue to attract foreign investment into Thailand. The war against the Middle Class is raging in many countries. The destruction of the middle class is part of the economic structure necessary to keep, or retain, a lot of powerlessness in the workers who have almost no voice, as those in the North who are angry but can do nothing about it. They understand what is at stake, those reading this forum are thrilled that a policy is making foreign investors more at ease in continuing to get this abundance of cheap labor instead of looking to neighboring even more desperate and destitute countries--like Myanmar, for their future huge corporate profit off what really is slave labor, creating sustainable huge billion or million dollar profits for the wealthy investors.

Well said 313. Many expats might be feeling comfortable at the moment, but there could be more to come? It might sound strange but my gut feeling is that Bangkok will benefit the most from this recent change in control of the country. Don't know what they are doing to attract business or retain the ones they have. There is no trust in what has been done in the past, or is it more commission needs to be paid before large works commence?

Some of the mining companies have been hustled recently?

How are they protecting industry from flooding? A water mitigation program study was done in 2006/2007 that should have been commissioned under Abhisit's watch. They are doing another one now just to be sure?

The countries all around Thailand are ready to take up the slak.

I know I would give Thailand a bit more time if I were to invest, as the junta hasn't really got any runs on the board. What are they going to do for the people up north?

[Bob12345]

It is nice to see that some real discussions are also possible on TV, instead of just people accusing each other of being red-shirt or yellow-shirt foreigners and focusing all their attention on discrediting the political leaders of the opposite side.

On-topic:
Trying to get out of the middle income trap is something every country which is in it wants. So there is nothing new there. The big question is only how to do that, and that part is missing from the story.

What worked for other countries (South Korea, Singapore) is investing heavily in education: not just pouring in money but also turning the system around to make it better. For Thailand this would mean they need to analyze why the level of education is so bad at the moment and come with suggestions to improve it. Unfortunately I don't see something like this happening soon here as that would require analytical skills to find the problem, thinking out-of-the-box to come with solutions, and stepping over the ego's of whoever implemented to current system to get it up and running. It would also mean Thailand will need to look to other countries, see what is working there, and copying it to here. Again, this seems unlikely as Thais see themselves as "special" and foreign advice is not wanted.

The same for corruption: many countries have had corruption and some got rid of it. The ones that got rid of it often had other institutions in place (like media that would scrutinize every move of the government, or an independent legal system) to help reach that. It must be clear that this is missing in Thailand.

I sincerely hope Thailand can move into the right direction but I have strong doubts as the current government, and many governments before it, make moves that make it even more unlikely Thailand will succeed. Instead of promoting an independent legal system they all focus on setting up a legal system that serves their own interests. Instead of strengthening the media they all take steps to weaken it to serve their own interests. Instead of improving education they all take steps to weaken it (kicking out English teachers with new visa regulations, increasing the focus on nationalism, supporting nationalism and marching in line instead of freedom of speech).

[HooHaa]

whaat is the point in offering candid commentary? one way or another it will be removed.

[tonbridgebrit]

It is nice to see that some real discussions are also possible on TV, instead of just people accusing each other of being red-shirt or yellow-shirt foreigners and focusing all their attention on discrediting the political leaders of the opposite side.

On-topic:

Trying to get out of the middle income trap is something every country which is in it wants. So there is nothing new there. The big question is only how to do that, and that part is missing from the story.

What worked for other countries (South Korea, Singapore) is investing heavily in education: not just pouring in money but also turning the system around to make it better. For Thailand this would mean they need to analyze why the level of education is so bad at the moment and come with suggestions to improve it. Unfortunately I don't see something like this happening soon here as that would require analytical skills to find the problem, thinking out-of-the-box to come with solutions, and stepping over the ego's of whoever implemented to current system to get it up and running. It would also mean Thailand will need to look to other countries, see what is working there, and copying it to here. Again, this seems unlikely as Thais see themselves as "special" and foreign advice is not wanted.

The same for corruption: many countries have had corruption and some got rid of it. The ones that got rid of it often had other institutions in place (like media that would scrutinize every move of the government, or an independent legal system) to help reach that. It must be clear that this is missing in Thailand.

I sincerely hope Thailand can move into the right direction but I have strong doubts as the current government, and many governments before it, make moves that make it even more unlikely Thailand will succeed. Instead of promoting an independent legal system they all focus on setting up a legal system that serves their own interests. Instead of strengthening the media they all take steps to weaken it to serve their own interests. Instead of improving education they all take steps to weaken it (kicking out English teachers with new visa regulations, increasing the focus on nationalism, supporting nationalism and marching in line instead of freedom of speech).

Yes, it's good to see what appears to be a reasonable attempt at discussion here !

How about this ? Singapore and South Korea, (throw in Hong Kong and Taiwan as well) had the good luck of 'first-mover advantage'. They were the original 'four tigers'. Okay, now that those four have made the jump (or promotion) from middle-income to high-income, well, it's more difficult for the others to be promoted or to make the jump. We can't have an army where everybody is a sergeant !

Also, them four 'original tigers', some people feel that they managed to have strong economic growth for decades, because America (and Europe) was their export market. Yes, the low wages in those countries meant that they could manufacture goods in their factories, export to America and Europe, build up healthy trade surpluses, and the flow of cash coming into those countries (the flow of cash from America and Europe being used to pay for those goods) was used to improve infrastructure and set up more factories.

Now then, can Thailand and the Phillippinnes (throw in Indonesia as well), can they replicate the success of the original four tigers ? As in export manufactured goods to the USA and Europe, and expand their economies ? Some people will say 'no'. Today, it is China that is exporting to America and Europe. The export market (America and Europe) is only so big, it's not infinitely huge, there's only a certain amount of goods that America and Europe can import. And right now, the market is flooded by the goods from China. And unfortunately for Thailand and the Phillipinnes, China has a big advantage with 'economies of scale' when it comes to churning out manufactured goods.

Cynics will also claim that maybe, China pushes 'unfair trade deals' onto other countries. Maybe, China sometimes says to Europe and America "don't put up barriers against our manufactured goods, we'ill hit you back with bigger barriers against your goods coming into our country if you put up barriers, how about you put up small barriers against goods from Thailand, etc". No matter how you see it, China's giant size means that it's better equipped for a trade war than places like Thailand and Indonesia. And one man's loss is another man's gain, Thailand and the rest of ASEAN is not big enough to win a trade war with China.

Hope you feel that I've made a 'positive contribution' to this discussion.

[tbthailand]

First decent PM we've had in a long long long time,

You could be right. Or not. But not on this, which only makes him look like a plagiarist. This particular speech about the middle-income trap is a straight steal from Yingluck.

And poverty is the chariot of corruption

Speaking of stealing.... corruption, yes!

What you just wrote deserves to be beaten down and contradicted and exposed every time it is written. If it were true, Thaksin would be the most honest Thai in history and his time as prime minister the most honest in the annals of the country.

Fact is rich people are far more likely to be corrupt in almost all ways including money. You'd think that electing a guy with eleventeen jillion baht would ensure the end of corruption. By your claim, that's what happened, and the Thaksin-Yingluck years with their were enabled, rich cronies were models of honesty. Right? That's what happened by keeping poor people out of government, right?

Please.

.

Straight steal? Yes indeed. Came together with her announcement of an ambitious mega project 'to lift Thailand out of this middle income trap' (23 Jan 2013). Details included the national income by promoting Agro-industry, tourism, service sector and zoning on land use. NESDB concurred and expect Thailand to break out of the middle income trap in 10-12 years. So the good general is just repeating what was said.

plagerism seems to be the junta's strong suit

[Bangmod]

Why did this guy ever get into the army, his ideas tell us he was born to be PM, or a King

[Bangmod]

Military governments usually get these things right. It just takes a lot of time. Just look how long it took in Myanmar!

Then tell us how long did it took???

Because in my opinion the Burma case is still not closed

[tonbridgebrit]

Volkswagen to build production facility in Thailand

FRANKFURT: -- German carmaker Volkswagen is expecting the go-ahead for a factory in Thailand, newspaper reports have claimed. The company aims to strengthen its position in markets with enormous growth prospects.

VW is only days away from getting permission to build a car factory in Thailand, Germany's daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported Monday.

It cited Thai investment authority officials as saying a corresponding application by the Wolfsburg-based multi-brand company could be decided on as soon as next week.

The newspaper added the production facility in question would be located near the port of Bangkok. Europe's largest automaker had applied for state subsidies for the project in spring of this year.

Rising to the challenge

The report claimed VW was aiming to make its investment within the local "Eco2 Program," which it said offered considerable tax breaks and reduced duty payments, if the company agreed to produce low-fuel vehicles with a consumption of little over four liters of petrol per 100 kilometer.

Full story: http://www.dw.de/vol...land/a-17893915

[tonbridgebrit]

Volkswagen to build production facility in Thailand

FRANKFURT: -- German carmaker Volkswagen is expecting the go-ahead for a factory in Thailand, newspaper reports have claimed. The company aims to strengthen its position in markets with enormous growth prospects.

VW is only days away from getting permission to build a car factory in Thailand, Germany's daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported Monday.

It cited Thai investment authority officials as saying a corresponding application by the Wolfsburg-based multi-brand company could be decided on as soon as next week.

The newspaper added the production facility in question would be located near the port of Bangkok. Europe's largest automaker had applied for state subsidies for the project in spring of this year.

Rising to the challenge

The report claimed VW was aiming to make its investment within the local "Eco2 Program," which it said offered considerable tax breaks and reduced duty payments, if the company agreed to produce low-fuel vehicles with a consumption of little over four liters of petrol per 100 kilometer.

Full story: http://www.dw.de/vol...land/a-17893915

Oh look, everybody ! Volkswagen, them Germans, they've decided to put their factory in THAILAND !

Yes, those clever Germans. You won't fool them. They'd be mad to set up their factory in Burma or Cambodia. And why put your factory in Laos, a place full of mountains, and those cars are going to have to be transported to Bangkok for export ?

Okay, who's next to put a factory in Thailand ?

[Bob12345]

Most people here are looking at the future and in which way things are developing.

So VW builds a factory now, but will they make the same decision 10-20 years from now for a second factory?

Besides, putting more semi-manufactured products together in thailand wont help to try to come out of the middle income gap.

Edited September 2, 2014 by Bob12345

[Boxclever]

Nothing about the impoverished 80% of the population. Another confirmation he is ONLY interested in keeping the military and the ruling elite happy.

[wilcopops]

Hold on, hold, wait a minute.

Is Thailand trying to shift all it's low income people into being middle income people ?

Surely, in any society, you're always going to need to have people who are going to sweep the streets, collect rubbish (garbage or 'refuse' collectors), and do a whole mass of un-skilled and semi-skilled labour. You'ill always need women working in bars and other night time places.

You can't really shift everybody into middle-income, and have hardly anybody in low income.

See, all this bringing in labour from Cambodia, Laos and Burma. And also Vietnam, let the Vietnamese in as well. Thailand has been doing this for decades. What is it all about ? Is Thailand trying to bring in all that cheap foreign labour, because it wants all those foreign 'peasants' to be the new low-income people ? That way, all the Thais can become middle-income people and high-income people ?

Actually, in America, are the Americans importing loads of Mexicans, that way, all the Americans can become middle-class ?

And in Europe, all this bringing in cheap labour from Romania, Poland and Bulgaria. And indeed, bring in cheap labour from outside of Europe. Is all this being done, so the new foreigners become the new low-income people ?

I really do wonder as to what is actually going on. I think the junta, when they was talking about low and middle-income, they meant Thailand as a nation, not actual individual people. But still, bringing in Cambodians and Laos people. Is it because those foreigners are suppose to be the new low-income people ??

"Is Thailand trying to shift all it's low income people into being middle income people ?" - not what this is about.

Edited September 3, 2014 by wilcopops

[wilcopops]

What's wrong with “middle-income” ? Even the most respected man in the country said that a sustainable lifestyle is what the Thais should aim for, why this Hi-So upper class dream?

Nothing to do with this topic

Edited September 3, 2014 by wilcopops

[JohnnyJazz]

What's wrong with “middle-income” ? Even the most respected man in the country said that a sustainable lifestyle is what the Thais should aim for, why this Hi-So upper class dream?

Nothing to do with this topic

Yes and no. If you remember after the 2006 coup the government installed by the junta went to a worldwide tour trying to explain bemused foreign governments the new Thai economic policy based of the "sufficiency economy" principles . This is completely over.

It is true that when Gen. Prayuth talk about "middle income" he is talking about the country, not the people. But one of the consequence of his new policy will be to be to push more Thais in the middle class middle income category in line with developed countries.

[Thai at Heart]

What's wrong with middle-income ? Even the most respected man in the country said that a sustainable lifestyle is what the Thais should aim for, why this Hi-So upper class dream?

Nothing to do with this topic

Yes and no. If you remember after the 2006 coup the government installed by the junta went to a worldwide tour trying to explain bemused foreign governments the new Thai economic policy based of the "sufficiency economy" principles . This is completely over.

It is true that when Gen. Prayuth talk about "middle income" he is talking about the country, not the people. But one of the consequence of his new policy will be to be to push more Thais in the middle class middle income category in line with developed countries.

The Thai definition.of middle class even remotely match with the west. How many as a percentage can declare an income of 100k per month in Thailand?

Thailand still has a massive trip to undertake in order to reach the middle class being really middle class.

[fab4]

What's wrong with “middle-income” ? Even the most respected man in the country said that a sustainable lifestyle is what the Thais should aim for, why this Hi-So upper class dream?

Nothing to do with this topic

Yes and no. If you remember after the 2006 coup the government installed by the junta went to a worldwide tour trying to explain bemused foreign governments the new Thai economic policy based of the "sufficiency economy" principles . This is completely over.

It is true that when Gen. Prayuth talk about "middle income" he is talking about the country, not the people. But one of the consequence of his new policy will be to be to push more Thais in the middle class middle income category in line with developed countries.

Yes and no. If you remember after the 2006 coup the government installed by the junta went to a worldwide tour trying to explain bemused foreign governments the new Thai economic policy based of the "sufficiency economy" principles . This is completely over.

26th August 2014:

BANGKOK, 26 August 2014 (NNT) - Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has declared that the government will adhere to the Sufficiency Economy philosophy of His Majesty the King and sustainable development in moving the country forward.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/centerweb/NewsEN/NewsDetail?NT01_NewsID=WNPOL5708260010005

Sufficiency Economy? Just so over.

[JohnnyJazz]

Yes and no. If you remember after the 2006 coup the government installed by the junta went to a worldwide tour trying to explain bemused foreign governments the new Thai economic policy based of the "sufficiency economy" principles . This is completely over.

BANGKOK, 26 August 2014 (NNT) - Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has declared that the government will adhere to the Sufficiency Economy philosophy of His Majesty the King and sustainable development in moving the country forward.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/centerweb/NewsEN/NewsDetail?NT01_NewsID=WNPOL5708260010005

Sufficiency Economy? Just so over.

I stand corrected.

Edited September 3, 2014 by JohnnyJazz

[tonbridgebrit]

What's wrong with middle-income ? Even the most respected man in the country said that a sustainable lifestyle is what the Thais should aim for, why this Hi-So upper class dream?

Nothing to do with this topic

Yes and no. If you remember after the 2006 coup the government installed by the junta went to a worldwide tour trying to explain bemused foreign governments the new Thai economic policy based of the "sufficiency economy" principles . This is completely over.

It is true that when Gen. Prayuth talk about "middle income" he is talking about the country, not the people. But one of the consequence of his new policy will be to be to push more Thais in the middle class middle income category in line with developed countries.

The Thai definition.of middle class even remotely match with the west. How many as a percentage can declare an income of 100k per month in Thailand?

Thailand still has a massive trip to undertake in order to reach the middle class being really middle class.

Oh, Thai at Heart !

Surely, the middle-class is not people on an income of 100k per month ?

The middle-class are people who are not un-skilled or semi-skilled workers. Un-skilled and semi-skilled workers are working class. Now, if you're not working class, and you're not part of the rich, well, surely, you're middle-class ?

100k per month ? For God's sake, what percentage of the Thais are on that kind of income, or above ? Middle-class usually means, I think, about the 20 or 30% band who are above working-class but under the 'rich band'. Off-course, most people are working class. Most countries do have a pyramid structure with regards to income.

Surely, there's far more farm labourers, factory workers, road sweepers, toilet cleaners, people who work in MacDonalds and Kentucky Fried Chicken, taxi drivers, waiters, car cleaners, shop assistants and shelf packers, all those who get there hands dirty in their job,etc, than people who are doing 'middle-class jobs' ? But Thais who are on 100k or more, per month ?

What percentage of the Thai population do they make up ?? 5 per cent ?? And how many of them look the same as Chinese people ??

[JohnnyJazz]

The Thai definition.of middle class even remotely match with the west. How many as a percentage can declare an income of 100k per month in Thailand?

Why do you take an income of 100K / month as a measure to who belongs to the middle class ? IMO at 40K / month in Thailand you already belong to the middle class. We are talking about someone with a minimum of education who can work at entry level in a medium technology company. I believe that's what want to achieve Gen Prayuth and a 12 years period to achieve this goal is reasonable.

[Thai at Heart]

The Thai definition.of middle class even remotely match with the west. How many as a percentage can declare an income of 100k per month in Thailand?

Why do you take an income of 100K / month as a measure to who belongs to the middle class ? IMO at 40K / month in Thailand you already belong to the middle class. We are talking about someone with a minimum of education who can work at entry level in a medium technology company. I believe that's what want to achieve Gen Prayuth and a 12 years period to achieve this goal is reasonable.

Well, this is the problem with defining middle class. 40k per month is hardly going to light up any statistics for the country as the "middle class" is it.

£800 per month. This definintion for middle income of the country is going to be way more than this on a per capita basis. If Thailand considers itself in the middle income trap today, with the aspiration of the people to be on 40k per month to be middle class, then this is waaaaaay to low. GDP per head in Korea is 4 times that of Thailand, Singapore is 9 times.

40,000 a month might make you feel wealthier than the poor in society, but for Thailand to escape the so called middle income trap, the middle class income is going to have to at least double. 80>100k

Edited September 3, 2014 by Thai at Heart

[tonbridgebrit]

The Thai definition.of middle class even remotely match with the west. How many as a percentage can declare an income of 100k per month in Thailand?

Why do you take an income of 100K / month as a measure to who belongs to the middle class ? IMO at 40K / month in Thailand you already belong to the middle class. We are talking about someone with a minimum of education who can work at entry level in a medium technology company. I believe that's what want to achieve Gen Prayuth and a 12 years period to achieve this goal is reasonable.

Well, this is the problem with defining middle class. 40k per month is hardly going to light up any statistics for the country as the "middle class" is it.

£800 per month. This definintion for middle income of the country is going to be way more than this on a per capita basis. If Thailand considers itself in the middle income trap today, with the aspiration of the people to be on 40k per month to be middle class, then this is waaaaaay to low. GDP per head in Korea is 4 times that of Thailand, Singapore is 9 times.

40,000 a month might make you feel wealthier than the poor in society, but for Thailand to escape the so called middle income trap, the middle class income is going to have to at least double. 80>100k

Thai at Heart, I really do feel that when people like you and Publicus go on about Singapore's GDP per person, well, you've got big smirks on your faces !

Okay, Singapore's high GDP per person should not be used as a comparison with other countries. It's not actually a real country, it's more like a city state. Singapore has a vast army of foreign migrant workers (vast, bearing in mind how many Singaporeans there actually are). Some of those foreigners are 'well-paid skilled foreigners', but a dis-proportionately high percentage of them are un-skilled low-paid foreigners. Basically, yes, the Singaporeans themselves are highly educated, the bulk of them don't leave school at sixteen years old, and they have qualifications and skills. Now then, a dis-proportionately low percentage of the Singaporeans do low paid un-skilled jobs, cynics will say that Singapore imports foreigners to do the low paid jobs. So Singapore's GDP per person is 9 times Thailand's, does this include all the cheap foreigners who are in Singapore ??

You might as well say, if Thailand was to become highly educated, and if Thailand was to import a vast number of Cambodians (and Burmese and Laos) to do all the low-paid work (taxi drivers, cleaners, rubbish collectors, etc), and if the vast bulk of the Thais did skilled labour, and if you excluded all the cheap foreign workers from the statistics for GDP per person, then yes, Thailand's GDP per person would be high !!

What else ? Okay, how about build a fence surrounding the City of London, and you pretend that those who work in the City of London stay over-night in there. That way, you can now call them 'residents'. Okay, work out GDP per person for the 'City of London people', and see how high it is. It would be absurd to try to target Yorkshire or Scotland, and to say things like 'how do we increase the GDP per person for Yorkshire (or Scotland, or anywhere in Britain) to match that for the City of London' ? The two areas cannot be compared, they're not the same.

Also, in America. The GDP per person in Silicon Valley is pretty high. It's a fair bit higher than GDP per person in Alabama or Louisiana. Again, it's absurd to ask 'how do we boost GDP per person in Alabama to match Silicon Valley'. Do you see what I mean ??

What about South Korea, and it's high GDP per person ? Again, comparing South Korea with Thailand is a bit silly. Yes, the South Koreans are more hard-working, they're more educated, they're more suited for work than Thais. How about, South Korea had rapid growth for decades after the 1950s, because it became a sweat shop for producing goods for export to the USA ? If China had of exported goods to America during the 1950s onwards, then China's sweat shop labour would have rendered South Korea 'un-competitive'. And what about how, America and Europe deliberately opened up their markets to South Korea after the war in the 1950s ? It was part of the strategy to make sure that the new South Korea would have rapid economic growth, it was/is an ally of the USA and Europe. Throw in how South Korea and Taiwan had first mover advantage over their other Asian neighbours. Yes, Japan was a giant sweat shop producing goods for America after the war, cynics will say that South Korea and Taiwan took over after Japan was no longer a sweat shop.

And today, Thailand and the other late starters (Indonesia, Phillipinnes, etc) have got to compete with China to export goods to America and Europe. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan (and indeed Hong Kong), those countries had the advantage of not really having to compete against China. Bear in mind that the market for goods is only so large, it's not infinite, Europe and America can't import an infinitely large amount of cheap goods.

The stuff I've said above is not totally true, it's only an opinion. But I'm trying to say why it is, a bit silly to go on about how Thailand will catch up with Singapore in the GDP per person rankings !

[Thai at Heart]

The Thai definition.of middle class even remotely match with the west. How many as a percentage can declare an income of 100k per month in Thailand?

Why do you take an income of 100K / month as a measure to who belongs to the middle class ? IMO at 40K / month in Thailand you already belong to the middle class. We are talking about someone with a minimum of education who can work at entry level in a medium technology company. I believe that's what want to achieve Gen Prayuth and a 12 years period to achieve this goal is reasonable.

Well, this is the problem with defining middle class. 40k per month is hardly going to light up any statistics for the country as the "middle class" is it.

£800 per month. This definintion for middle income of the country is going to be way more than this on a per capita basis. If Thailand considers itself in the middle income trap today, with the aspiration of the people to be on 40k per month to be middle class, then this is waaaaaay to low. GDP per head in Korea is 4 times that of Thailand, Singapore is 9 times.

40,000 a month might make you feel wealthier than the poor in society, but for Thailand to escape the so called middle income trap, the middle class income is going to have to at least double. 80>100k

Thai at Heart, I really do feel that when people like you and Publicus go on about Singapore's GDP per person, well, you've got big smirks on your faces !

Okay, Singapore's high GDP per person should not be used as a comparison with other countries. It's not actually a real country, it's more like a city state. Singapore has a vast army of foreign migrant workers (vast, bearing in mind how many Singaporeans there actually are). Some of those foreigners are 'well-paid skilled foreigners', but a dis-proportionately high percentage of them are un-skilled low-paid foreigners. Basically, yes, the Singaporeans themselves are highly educated, the bulk of them don't leave school at sixteen years old, and they have qualifications and skills. Now then, a dis-proportionately low percentage of the Singaporeans do low paid un-skilled jobs, cynics will say that Singapore imports foreigners to do the low paid jobs. So Singapore's GDP per person is 9 times Thailand's, does this include all the cheap foreigners who are in Singapore ??

You might as well say, if Thailand was to become highly educated, and if Thailand was to import a vast number of Cambodians (and Burmese and Laos) to do all the low-paid work (taxi drivers, cleaners, rubbish collectors, etc), and if the vast bulk of the Thais did skilled labour, and if you excluded all the cheap foreign workers from the statistics for GDP per person, then yes, Thailand's GDP per person would be high !!

What else ? Okay, how about build a fence surrounding the City of London, and you pretend that those who work in the City of London stay over-night in there. That way, you can now call them 'residents'. Okay, work out GDP per person for the 'City of London people', and see how high it is. It would be absurd to try to target Yorkshire or Scotland, and to say things like 'how do we increase the GDP per person for Yorkshire (or Scotland, or anywhere in Britain) to match that for the City of London' ? The two areas cannot be compared, they're not the same.

Also, in America. The GDP per person in Silicon Valley is pretty high. It's a fair bit higher than GDP per person in Alabama or Louisiana. Again, it's absurd to ask 'how do we boost GDP per person in Alabama to match Silicon Valley'. Do you see what I mean ??

What about South Korea, and it's high GDP per person ? Again, comparing South Korea with Thailand is a bit silly. Yes, the South Koreans are more hard-working, they're more educated, they're more suited for work than Thais. How about, South Korea had rapid growth for decades after the 1950s, because it became a sweat shop for producing goods for export to the USA ? If China had of exported goods to America during the 1950s onwards, then China's sweat shop labour would have rendered South Korea 'un-competitive'. And what about how, America and Europe deliberately opened up their markets to South Korea after the war in the 1950s ? It was part of the strategy to make sure that the new South Korea would have rapid economic growth, it was/is an ally of the USA and Europe. Throw in how South Korea and Taiwan had first mover advantage over their other Asian neighbours. Yes, Japan was a giant sweat shop producing goods for America after the war, cynics will say that South Korea and Taiwan took over after Japan was no longer a sweat shop.

And today, Thailand and the other late starters (Indonesia, Phillipinnes, etc) have got to compete with China to export goods to America and Europe. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan (and indeed Hong Kong), those countries had the advantage of not really having to compete against China. Bear in mind that the market for goods is only so large, it's not infinite, Europe and America can't import an infinitely large amount of cheap goods.

The stuff I've said above is not totally true, it's only an opinion. But I'm trying to say why it is, a bit silly to go on about how Thailand will catch up with Singapore in the GDP per person rankings !

Well there isn't a reason to smirk. Its reality. They did it. I focus more on south Korea than Singapore anyway.

Its a great place with a super culture and a unity of purpose I admire. They are a nationalistic bunch but the achievmemets are huge. Korea has jumped rapidly from sweatshop to hitec and that is the issue.

But then south Korea doesn't have an imported hiso immigrant class obsessed with exporting rice and chicken on the back of others labour. If Thailand is going to get out of the middle income trap it isn't going to do it with 15mn farmers.

Edited September 3, 2014 by Thai at Heart

[wilcopops]

Why on earth are people still talking about "middle class"?????? you might as well talk about Tolkien...he had middle earth which is just about as relevant to the topic as middle class.

Edited September 4, 2014 by wilcopops

[Crushdepth]

He may well be right, but how can they possibly do it? Just fixing the broken education system is going to take a generational change.

[Crushdepth]

The Thai definition.of middle class even remotely match with the west. How many as a percentage can declare an income of 100k per month in Thailand?

Why do you take an income of 100K / month as a measure to who belongs to the middle class ? IMO at 40K / month in Thailand you already belong to the middle class. We are talking about someone with a minimum of education who can work at entry level in a medium technology company. I believe that's what want to achieve Gen Prayuth and a 12 years period to achieve this goal is reasonable.

More like 20k.

[desmondspencer]

I have always stood by this

"Education is THE ONLY WAY OUT of poverty"

[tonbridgebrit]

I have always stood by this

"Education is THE ONLY WAY OUT of poverty"

Yes, it sounds good, but I think we need to be careful.

Education must equip young people with the skills that they will need at the work place, and the correct qualifications. Also, schools should teach things like discipline, respect for society and the elderly, and a sense of duty for the community.

Basically, and its happening a little bit in Britain, we're seeing a load of youngsters who simply don't have pride in the nation or the flag. Values like 'we need to have aims like good economic growth, a balance of trade surplus, a prison system does actually punish and reform offenders, hard-work, and a sense of our place in history, these values are simply lacking in young people.

Some young people seem to have an attitude where society owes them a living. And others have goals in life like : earn as much money for yourself, live life to drink alcohol and see women, turning up in foreign countries to work just because a higher pay packet is being offered (and hence, taking their skills to boost some other country's economy).

Yes, education is important, but I think teaching youngsters both values and having a good attitude to life is just as important as equipping them with the skills they need for the workplace.