Phuket: paradox, contradiction or TIT?

[surangw]

the more they build, the more they can charge for empty rooms theory ?

[NamKangMan]

The main reason for the contradictions are that foreigners (think they) know better.

.

As far as the financiers of the large resorts / hotels etc who plan for a market 5-7 years ahead.......maybe they do know a bit more then some of the embittered farangs here, who continue to talk about the imminent collapse of Thailand should they ever have to leave........

I agree the big players invest now for market conditions they hope for in 5-10 years. They definitely know more than I do.

When I meet farang tourists I frequently hear them rant that Thailand would be nothing with them. Tourism as a percentage of GDP has traditionally hovered at about 6% of GDP here. I'm not sure if that figure includes domestic tourism which is a very big market.

"Tourism as a percentage of GDP has traditionally hovered at about 6% of GDP here." - yes, but accounts for around 30% of employment.

If tourism here contracts, that's a lot of unemployment, country wide.

So, there is some truth in a comment that many Thai's, and Thai companies/businesses, heavily rely on a successful tourism industry here.

[Guest]

"Tourism as a percentage of GDP has traditionally hovered at about 6% of GDP here." - yes, but accounts for around 30% of employment.

If tourism here contracts, that's a lot of unemployment, country wide.

So, there is some truth in a comment that many Thai's, and Thai companies/businesses, heavily rely on a successful tourism industry here.

Really? Do you somehow think that the whole tourism sector somehow collapses and 30% of the Phuket's workforce will suddenly become unemployed without a chance to find another job?

Based of your calculations, what kind of increase of such event would have to the unemployment rates countrywide?

I'm a bit disappointed to you overall. I thought you would give a bit of positive comments for the things which have happened here on your favorite topic, the transportation. But so far I have seen none. Don't become one of those always complaining people whose destiny is to become one line on ignored members list.

[96tehtarp]

The main reason for the contradictions are that foreigners (think they) know better.

.

As far as the financiers of the large resorts / hotels etc who plan for a market 5-7 years ahead.......maybe they do know a bit more then some of the embittered farangs here, who continue to talk about the imminent collapse of Thailand should they ever have to leave........

I agree the big players invest now for market conditions they hope for in 5-10 years. They definitely know more than I do.

When I meet farang tourists I frequently hear them rant that Thailand would be nothing with them. Tourism as a percentage of GDP has traditionally hovered at about 6% of GDP here. I'm not sure if that figure includes domestic tourism which is a very big market.

"Tourism as a percentage of GDP has traditionally hovered at about 6% of GDP here." - yes, but accounts for around 30% of employment.

If tourism here contracts, that's a lot of unemployment, country wide.

So, there is some truth in a comment that many Thai's, and Thai companies/businesses, heavily rely on a successful tourism industry here.

I don't doubt there's truth in what you say. Even in Singapore where tourism is a higher percentage of GDP than in Thailand a small decline in numbers hurts.

I don't believe that tourism employs anywhere near 30% of the workforce in Thailand. However, in Phuket (subject of the OP) this may well be the case. On many levels Phuket is a SEZ (Special Economic Zone).

Even at 6% of GDP a small decline in Thailand could tip the country into recession. Bumbling, nepotistic, corrupt, nincompoops notwithstanding Thailand's tourism industry has been able to adapt adequately at the macro level and draw tourists from new markets e.g. China, Russia, India.

[NamKangMan]

"Tourism as a percentage of GDP has traditionally hovered at about 6% of GDP here." - yes, but accounts for around 30% of employment.

If tourism here contracts, that's a lot of unemployment, country wide.

So, there is some truth in a comment that many Thai's, and Thai companies/businesses, heavily rely on a successful tourism industry here.

Really? Do you somehow think that the whole tourism sector somehow collapses and 30% of the Phuket's workforce will suddenly become unemployed without a chance to find another job?

Based of your calculations, what kind of increase of such event would have to the unemployment rates countrywide?

I'm a bit disappointed to you overall. I thought you would give a bit of positive comments for the things which have happened here on your favorite topic, the transportation. But so far I have seen none. Don't become one of those always complaining people whose destiny is to become one line on ignored members list.

Please read my post again.

Nowhere in my post do you see the word, "collapse." I used the word, "contracts." Used as a verb, it means to "decrease in size, number or range."

Despite your reply, I will address your question to me, regardless.

"Based of your calculations what kind of increase of such event would have to the unemployment rates countrywide?" - firstly, I actually didn't make calculations.

There are many "events" that could/would have an impact, either short term, or long term, and either locally, or nationally, on the tourism industry in Thailand.

Some examples are:

Protests and/or Civil war (reds v yellows) - don't forget, the Thai Army shot and killed around 90 of it's citizens a a while ago. If the conflict spread, outside of Bangkok, and a civil war is declared, it's a massive blow to tourism. Remember the seizing of the airport? We are already under military rule now. Who knows what will happen before, during or after the next election here - the county is volatile and unstable.

A certain aged and frail very revered man in Thailand passes (I'm sure everyone knows who I am talking about) it's not if, just when - this will have an instant effect on tourists coming to Thailand. National public holidays for public grieving and all bars/nightclubs to be closed - instand holiday cancelations, country wide, as most would know services, infastructure and the lack of availability of alcohol and/or sex would not make for a great holiday. National mourning will probably last 1 month, but tourists would have to change their holidays with their employer and change flights, so I would suggest, Thailand would be quiet for around 3 months, before tourists start returning. Picture a month of "Buddha Days" - mass cancelations.

Just on this topic, I have discussed this with some friends, and their strategy is to take their holiday, as planned, but buy a connecting flight to a neighbouring country. They agreed on Vietnam. they will be counted as tourists to Thailand, but will not spend a night in Thailand.

Visa Law crackdown - I, and thousands of others, may be a "tourist" that is not allowed to return here. I will find out shortly, but the visa laws can change, overnight, and rule out thousands of people being in Thailand on a 365 day holiday, every year.

Natural disasters - massive flooding in the north and tsunamis in the south. Bangkok and Phuket has already experienced this. Tourists were begged to come back. What about another volcano errupution in Iceland?

Terrorist Operation - Bali style bombings on on Patong's nightlife. Instant holiday cancelations, on a massive scale. Thailand has insurgents in the south. We saw it in Bali - we could see it here. Also, another 9/11 type plane hijacking, by unknown means, until investigated. People too scared to

fly again, especially the Chinese. Mass holiday cancelations.

Global Finacial Crisis - a deeper and wider global recession, boardering on a depression, causing massive job losses and property foreclosures etc etc in the west. People lacking money to holiday.

Disease - SARS, swine flu, bird flu, malaria etc etc. We've seen it before, it could happen again, but on a more lethal scale, especially if there are many deaths in Thailand, or from tourists just returning home from Thailand.

There are other things I could list.

Like I said, none of the above will see the tourism industry here "collapse" - but it would "contract" and that will cause, either locally, or nationally, a loss of a lot of employment.

I admit, the above examples range in time frames, and from the definate to the unlikely - but many Thai's live on month to month salary. They would only have to be out of work for one month, and this is enough to cause them financial hardship.

"I thought you would give a bit of positive comments for the things which have happened here on your favorite topic, the transportation." - what's actually changed, on the ground? There's been arrests, but no change. Phuket still does not have the same transport options, and comparable prices, that other tourists destinations in Thailand have.

"Don't become one of those always complaining people whose destiny is to become one line on ignored members list." - I know I am opinionated, but I think you will also notice I can back up my opinion with statistics and examples - as I have for you in this post.

I would be happy to hear from you about how the above would have no little to no impact on tourism, and tourism employment here.

"I'm a bit disappointed to you overall." - tell someone who cares.

Edited September 4, 2014 by NamKangMan

[Guest]

Oh my I think you forgot the possible war in Europe, asteroid collision and Earth annihilating by a blob of antimatter.

@nkm: You excel listing all the threats and weaknesses, but to do a full analysis you would need to add the strengths and opportunities as well. It would be very interesting to see what kind of list you could do.

As mentioned before, the big players calculate possibilities and risks both ways. Just today Hyatt told that it's affiliate will open a new hotel in Patong in year 2016. There must be some trust to Phuket as well.

Those independent tourists you talk might decrease in numbers, but the total number of tourist might come up with the tourists from Asian countries. This might be bad for little hostels and restaurants, but good for large hotels and tour companies.

Transportation:

+ Airport bus to Patong

+ Metered taxis at the airport

+ Increase numbers of metered taxis. They are also allowed to take customers from anywhere on the island.

+ New underpasses will lower travel time once finished

+ There has not been "tuk-tuk driver abused customers" news lately

[LivinginKata]

Baiting post removed. Let's all try to stay on topic, thank you.

[EBlair48]

"Tourism as a percentage of GDP has traditionally hovered at about 6% of GDP here." - yes, but accounts for around 30% of employment.

If tourism here contracts, that's a lot of unemployment, country wide.

So, there is some truth in a comment that many Thai's, and Thai companies/businesses, heavily rely on a successful tourism industry here.

Really? Do you somehow think that the whole tourism sector somehow collapses and 30% of the Phuket's workforce will suddenly become unemployed without a chance to find another job?

Based of your calculations, what kind of increase of such event would have to the unemployment rates countrywide?

I'm a bit disappointed to you overall. I thought you would give a bit of positive comments for the things which have happened here on your favorite topic, the transportation. But so far I have seen none. Don't become one of those always complaining people whose destiny is to become one line on ignored members list.

Maybe NKM just doesn't view highly whipped frosting as cake and sees a lot of news stories, but no real change? Maybe he dares to think for himself, and would agree the ignore button is used mostly to perpetuate self- ignorance and threat of forum clique dis-affiliations just aren't really important in real life?

[KarenBravo]

"Tourism as a percentage of GDP has traditionally hovered at about 6% of GDP here." - yes, but accounts for around 30% of employment.

If tourism here contracts, that's a lot of unemployment, country wide.

So, there is some truth in a comment that many Thai's, and Thai companies/businesses, heavily rely on a successful tourism industry here.

Really? Do you somehow think that the whole tourism sector somehow collapses and 30% of the Phuket's workforce will suddenly become unemployed without a chance to find another job?

Based of your calculations, what kind of increase of such event would have to the unemployment rates countrywide?

I'm a bit disappointed to you overall. I thought you would give a bit of positive comments for the things which have happened here on your favorite topic, the transportation. But so far I have seen none. Don't become one of those always complaining people whose destiny is to become one line on ignored members list.

Maybe NKM just doesn't view highly whipped frosting as cake and sees a lot of news stories, but no real change? Maybe he dares to think for himself, and would agree the ignore button is used mostly to perpetuate self- ignorance and threat of forum clique dis-affiliations just aren't really important in real life?

Nah.....we know him better than that.

[NamKangMan]

Oh my I think you forgot the possible war in Europe, asteroid collision and Earth annihilating by a blob of antimatter.

@nkm: You excel listing all the threats and weaknesses, but to do a full analysis you would need to add the strengths and opportunities as well. It would be very interesting to see what kind of list you could do.

As mentioned before, the big players calculate possibilities and risks both ways. Just today Hyatt told that it's affiliate will open a new hotel in Patong in year 2016. There must be some trust to Phuket as well.

Those independent tourists you talk might decrease in numbers, but the total number of tourist might come up with the tourists from Asian countries. This might be bad for little hostels and restaurants, but good for large hotels and tour companies.

Transportation:

+ Airport bus to Patong

+ Metered taxis at the airport

+ Increase numbers of metered taxis. They are also allowed to take customers from anywhere on the island.

+ New underpasses will lower travel time once finished

+ There has not been "tuk-tuk driver abused customers" news lately

"I think you forgot the possible war in Europe, asteroid collision and Earth annihilating by a blob of antimatter." - obviously trolling on this issue now.

Many of the things I mentioned have happened, and may happen again. Of the ones that haven't happened, it is very possible they could happen.

I asked you to comment on why you think the things I mentioned would not have an impact on tourism industry employment - obviously, that was too hard for you.

Transportation:

+ Airport bus to Patong - heavy "drop off" restrictions. Eg. can not drop people off at their hotel. So, they are with their heavy suitcases and at the mercy of the tuk-tuks.

+ Metered taxis at the airport - I believe the metered price is dearer now.

+ Increase numbers of metered taxis. They are also allowed to take customers from anywhere on the island. - to date, I have not seen any at either end of Bangla Road, waiting to take people home safely after a night out, which should be the goal of a public transport system in a so called "World Class Tourist Destination."

+ New underpasses will lower travel time once finished - it's not finished yet. I'll reserve my comment until it is.

+ There has not been "tuk-tuk driver abused customers" news lately - I agree. We have not read about a tuk-tuk driver assault in the media lately. That could be due to the victim not reporting it, either to police and/or the media, or the new demographic of tourist having their coach buses and not using tuk-tuks. Also, the Thai Army being here and also it being low season.

To date, the only positive change has been the beach encroachment has been wound back. Te sand has been reclaimed for the people.

There have been arrests of some big players, but we'll have to see if justice is served upon them.

Other than these, there has been very little positive change to lure the western market back to Phuket.

[NamKangMan]

"Tourism as a percentage of GDP has traditionally hovered at about 6% of GDP here." - yes, but accounts for around 30% of employment.

If tourism here contracts, that's a lot of unemployment, country wide.

So, there is some truth in a comment that many Thai's, and Thai companies/businesses, heavily rely on a successful tourism industry here.

Really? Do you somehow think that the whole tourism sector somehow collapses and 30% of the Phuket's workforce will suddenly become unemployed without a chance to find another job?

Based of your calculations, what kind of increase of such event would have to the unemployment rates countrywide?

I'm a bit disappointed to you overall. I thought you would give a bit of positive comments for the things which have happened here on your favorite topic, the transportation. But so far I have seen none. Don't become one of those always complaining people whose destiny is to become one line on ignored members list.

Maybe NKM just doesn't view highly whipped frosting as cake and sees a lot of news stories, but no real change? Maybe he dares to think for himself, and would agree the ignore button is used mostly to perpetuate self- ignorance and threat of forum clique dis-affiliations just aren't really important in real life?

I have never used the ignore button. Everyone is entitled to their views and opinions, as I am entitled to mine.

I welcome all criticism, if replies are backed up with substance.

I agree EB - a lot of news stories touting big changes on Phuket, but in reality, very little has changed, on the ground.

Typical Thai propaganda - release media statements that everything has been fixed, when in reality, it hasn't.

[EBlair48]

^ Sorry if post was not clear, Oilinki was writing you were in danger of becoming " one of the ignored" as you aren't toeing the official rose hued line.

Don't become one of those always complaining people whose destiny is to become one line on ignored members list.

[NamKangMan]

^ Sorry if post was not clear, Oilinki was writing you were in danger of becoming " one of the ignored" as you aren't toeing the official rose hued line.

Don't become one of those always complaining people whose destiny is to become one line on ignored members list.

I see. Thanks for clarifying that for me. If "ignored" - I'm not sure how I will sleep at night.

[NamKangMan]

Oh my I think you forgot the possible war in Europe, asteroid collision and Earth annihilating by a blob of antimatter.

@nkm: You excel listing all the threats and weaknesses, but to do a full analysis you would need to add the strengths and opportunities as well. It would be very interesting to see what kind of list you could do.

As mentioned before, the big players calculate possibilities and risks both ways. Just today Hyatt told that it's affiliate will open a new hotel in Patong in year 2016. There must be some trust to Phuket as well.

Those independent tourists you talk might decrease in numbers, but the total number of tourist might come up with the tourists from Asian countries. This might be bad for little hostels and restaurants, but good for large hotels and tour companies.

Transportation:

+ Airport bus to Patong

+ Metered taxis at the airport

+ Increase numbers of metered taxis. They are also allowed to take customers from anywhere on the island.

+ New underpasses will lower travel time once finished

+ There has not been "tuk-tuk driver abused customers" news lately

"but the total number of tourist might come up with the tourists from Asian countries" - just posted this link in another thread.

Like I said, things do, and will happen, that effect Thailand's tourism industry, and they do not need to be such things as an "asteroid collision."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-02/chinese-say-no-as-mh370-to-thai-coup-deter-trips-southeast-asia.html