Thai population grows by 300,000 a year, but fewer babies

BANGKOK: -- A leading social research centre said Thailand's population has grown by 300,000 people during the past year, reaching 62.5 million at present.

Associate Professor Pattama Wawattanawong of the Institute of Population and Social Research at Mahidol University, who presented her study on Thailand's future population at a recent seminar on the topic, said the Thai population would increase to 65 million in the next 15 years before it declines due to the country's smaller birth rate.

The study, which the academic had jointly conducted with Professor Pramote Prasartkul, looked into the country's population growth during the next 30 years.

It said with a present birth rate of 0.6 per cent, Thailand's population has grown by 300,000 persons a year. It has predicted that the birth rate would regularly decline every year and would get to the same level as the death rate 15 years from now which would cause no change to the size of the country's population.

The study said after the year 2022, the population will begin to fall, as there will be a larger proportion of aging citizens compared to the population of infants. By then, the birth rate would gradually fall below zero percent.

The researchers said Thailand is producing fewer babies year by year, which will adversely affect the country's social and population structure in the long run when there would be more aging persons than in the younger work force.

Old people constituted 10 per cent of the population last year, and the number will increase to 25 per cent in the next 30 years--or about 16 million people--higher than the projected number of infants.

The study warned that such a foreseeable change would have an impact on the country's economic structure as there would be more older people than babies to look after which would cause some changes in the country's policies in education and health care.

The researchers also predicted that Thailand would have to import foreign workers in the future, as it would face a shortage of younger able-bodied workers.

They said the government needed to begin now to think of creating a welfare system to care for the country's growing older population in the future.

--TNA 2006-05-16

This type of demographic situation is happening in a lot of places. It will probably take an epidemic (bird flu?) to correct the population imbalance.

This problem, common in many developed and developing countries, is not being addressed effectively, and probably can't be resolved. Somchai understands how to do birth control, and he and Lek practice it. My almanac said that the birth rate in both Thailand and Mexico (perhaps China as well) fell by 50% in the last 25 years of the 20th century.

Are there any plans to have fewer students in the schools, or is the Ministry of Education too busy forbidding new teachers to be hired? Are there any plans to do anything about this? Perhaps not.

The days when grandparents were supported by 5 or 10 grandchildren is already long gone.

Also, I seriously doubt that the gay Thai men who finally realize they don't have to make babies, or the tom-dees who understand likewise, has any noticeable effect upon population trends. It's the straight straight Thais who don't want more babies.