Economic growth will not reach its target this year: Thailand

[webfact]

Economic growth will not reach its target this year

BANGKOK, 9 October 2014 (NNT) – The Finance Ministry has approved nearly 20 investments to stimulate economic growth this year, as August’s exports have been slow.

According to the Permanent-Secretary for Finance Rangsan Srivorasart, the Thai economy will only grow 1.7 percent instead of the previous forecast of 2 percent this year, as the Thai economy has not fully recovered yet.

He believes that the approvals of over 18 business investments will compensate for the sluggish export in August this year. The total sum of investments is estimated at around 300 billion baht. The development on special economic zones in 5 border provinces will be also expedited to raise the revenue for the government sector.

Tax reduction measures will also be enforced to entice new investors to these zones. Foreign nationals in neighboring countries will be allowed to cross the border to work in Thailand and return in the evening. The move is said to prevent the influx of migrant workers from going further into the Kingdom.


-- NNT 2014-10-09

[EricBerg]

If the economy brings in less than expected measures will be taken. One of them being the farangs will pay more one way or another. Fines for dropping cigarette buts, tourist taxes, border runners, fines for trying to bribe the BiB at traffic violations, fines for not trying to bribe the BiB at traffic violations, pay more at tourist attractions, whatever. There's much creativity in LoS. Wish they would use it in the right way some more.

[rickirs]

Military coups are expensive propositions for a nation's economy.

I estimate a 3% loss of GDP for 2014 and now 1% loss of GDP for 2015 (and that's optimistic) for a total estumated loss of 4% GDP for 2014-2015 attributable to the coup. When you combine that with more government borrowing for populist programs (or whatever you want to label them) and cutting tax revenues (don't expect the roll-out of the inheritance tax and higher property taxes to have any immediate impact), the year 2015 is going to be a make or break year for Thailand's economy in terms of any future short-term growth.

A doomsday prediction for 2015 might be zero GDP growth. Should that happen, the government's House of Cards will tumble. The government NOW needs to consider an overall economic stategy instead of chasing its tail with individual events and stick to that strategy, no matter the (oops) criticism it might receive. The Junta is moving into the same position of an elected government that realizes it cannot get re-election and political paralysis sets in.

[mikebell]

Even the UK are doing better than that but still the baht is holding its own against the pound. When will be the optimum time to transfer 5K?

[Yme]

Rickirs,

You mean a fall of 3 per cent reduction on last year or -3.x per cent GDP growth? First half was -0.1 per cent.

They'll lose a bit of the EU market for important exports such as automotive when the EU tariff is applied from January 1.

Australia is their biggest market for automobiles and the A$ is is off down a wombat hole somewhere and still burroughing so that will raise car prices down there.

They're agriculture industry is over-stocked with produce no one really wants and is bringing in very diminished returns, but I still think they might make 1.0 GDP growth this year and perhaps 2.2 -2.5 per cent next year - if they get their megaprojects happening, but that's questionable. Also depends how bad the drought is.