Would Ebola Make You Leave Chiang Mai

[Tokay]

A new type of "suicide bomber" might emerge. Willing martyrs infected with the virus could be sent to strike down offensive infidels in evil lands, Heavily sweating, salivating ........ pushing through crowded areas dispensing the viral load onto the unsuspecting hosts.

Think I'll go and pick up a few months supply of baked beans and bottled water.

That is something that flickered across my mind and was chased away very quickly because I didn't want to think about it.

It is truly a disgusting and despicable act that the brainwashed evangelists of any religion, not just muslims could be either persuaded to do or acting alone would do.

The world would have no defense to such actions. If there is a Big Fella Upstairs, I hope he doesn't allow those with a case of the crazies to have the foresight to think about doing this, because it would be a very effective way of causing economic chaos; I've never doubted for one minute that was the intention of Osama Bin Laden when he planned the events of 9th September 2001. Kill a few thousand, OK, any terrorist act if well planned and funded can do that and will have a big short term impact, but the way that those terrorist acts were carried out ensured that the the economic aftershocks - the increased spending on security and tying up of resources - is going to cripple western economies for decades to come. I remember saying that to Mr K only a day or so after it happened; I've always been convinced that was a very big part of the planning. When things such as that happen, as a particularly vengeful person, I put myself in the position of the offender and ask myself what I would do, and if I were Tracey the Terrorist, I would be concentrating on economic chaos rather than wasting time killing people - I grew up during the years of IRA activity in England, I know it's awful when people are killed, but you forget about it pretty soon and get on with life as per usual. It would be so much more effective to hit people in their pockets rather than wasting money on bombs. Tie up resources and unspecified amounts of money in making sure I don't do the same kind of thing again. Forever. Weaken the economy. Play the long game, and plan other ways to further weaken the economy in ways nobody will expect, such as flying planes into buildings. Or sending out human time bombs to infect the masses.

I have a very evil streak in me, although I try very hard to be a good person. I would make a very good James Bond villain. I'm actually surprised nobody has thought of doing this before - I have thought about it several times although I try to put such scenarios out of my mind quite quickly - or perhaps they have thought of it and just haven't been able to find a way of infecting the initial people. I don't imagine it would be easy, but I'm sure that even without any medical knowledge I'd find a way of doing it if I really wanted to. I can do pretty much anything if I'm determined enough.

Y

I really can be quite evil, I just hope others aren't, or that the terrorists don't have the brains to think of doing this, because it would be very, very effective.

It is amazing io have someone with your exceptional brainpower on this forum to provide us with such ideas. Certainly terrorists can not approach your intellect so we need not worry.

What I worry about is the farangs here who who seem to go off frequently.

Well you have to admit it is a remote possibility. Very very remote. I am quite sure that the terrorists have considered it but realized they to were vulnerable and they are not all crazy enough to deliberately commit suicide.

Ebola would be a horrible choice for a terrorist. 1) The incubation period isn't long, so it would have to be timed just right. 2) Unless they sneeze and slobber on lots of people, it simply wouldn't transmit easily. 3) They would be very ill before they got the chance to try to spread it around because you are only contagious when you have symptoms.

[Konini]

Well you have to admit it is a remote possibility. Very very remote. I am quite sure that the terrorists have considered it but realized they to were vulnerable and they are not all crazy enough to deliberately commit suicide.

But that's what suicide bombers do, though.

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

Hundreds of them getting infected and trying to fly to distant parts of the globe could paralyze the airline industry and global economy.

I would not put it past them at least trying.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/world/2014/10/10/Experts-warn-of-Ebola-suicide-bombers-.html

[winnerinsix]

Read thru this thread, and the others about Ebola..... To the "end of the world as we know it" people, can you please, direct me to any information regarding an outbreak of Ebola in the general population, other than 3 of the poorest countries in West Africa.

The fact is, Ebola is burning brightly in West Africa, because of lack of infrastructure, religious and cultural beliefs, and customs, and some fear of health workers. Nigeria, a wealthy country by African standards, had a minor outbreak, and *appears* to have it under control. If they have succeeded, it proves that with the correct infrastructure, this virus will be contained.

The infections *originating* in western countries, are health workers/contractors dealing with ebola patients. That has always been high risk, nothing has changed. Infections of some of these people is to be expected... sadly

There is currently NO outbreak in any country outside of the three West African Countries, where the virus originated, among the general population... Zero.

I think we need to keep things in perspective. If, and it's a big if, countries get their collective acts together, and tackle the problem at it's heart, this outbreak, like the ones before it, will burn out... It is the nature of Ebola, it is too efficient for it's own good, it runs out of hosts, and that is why, in the past, the outbreaks in small communities last a short time... This time, it has managed to get into a larger source of hosts and is taking longer to contain, or burn out...

Time to Panic? maybe if you were living in Monrovia, but for the rest of us, that would be premature.

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

The problem would not be rational forward thinking people. The problem would be people in denial mode that all of sudden activate their survival instincts.

If you have seen Thai people snap its pretty sobering. They really snap and most don't have much experience or control in that zone to talk themselves down.

You know how many Thai people drive? They sort of have no plan if the situation changes.

Consider the recent ill conceived government programs such as the 10k baht bribery bounty. Even at the highest levels the quality of forward planning is sketchy at best.

It's a potential unknown downward spiral scenario to wrap my head around.

Edited October 15, 2014 by CobraSnakeNecktie

[chiang mai]

The more I think about it the more convinced I am that I'm in the right place, in the event it all goes pear shaped. I'm in a quite rural area, semi-remote, hardly any foreigners here, local markets nearby. Instead of having contact with outsiders several times each day I'm going to have contact two or three times a week, I'm probably only going to have contact with foreigners once a month instead of near daily.

The centre of a large western city would scare me, riding the bus, the underground, commuting, as would the prospect of flying or even being in an airport, I see the US is looking retrospectively for 124 passengers who traveled on the same flight as the infected nurse, that is scary.

Point taken about people in survival mode and in denial who flee for safer pastures, that's a risk you can't control, all you can do is minimize it - it's a bit like paying dodge ball, you want to be at the back of the pack, not the front.

Edited October 15, 2014 by chiang mai

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

^^ yeah I like the rural self sufficiency angle and apt dodge ball analogy

They should still play/allow dodge ball in modern schools.

I think past generations had a valuable learning tool playing that game.

and who can forget "Smear the Queer"?

Edited October 16, 2014 by CobraSnakeNecktie

[mesquite]

The more I think about it the more convinced I am that I'm in the right place, in the event it all goes pear shaped. I'm in a quite rural area, semi-remote, hardly any foreigners here, local markets nearby. Instead of having contact with outsiders several times each day I'm going to have contact two or three times a week, I'm probably only going to have contact with foreigners once a month instead of near daily.

The centre of a large western city would scare me, riding the bus, the underground, commuting, as would the prospect of flying or even being in an airport, I see the US is looking retrospectively for 124 passengers who traveled on the same flight as the infected nurse, that is scary.

Point taken about people in survival mode and in denial who flee for safer pastures, that's a risk you can't control, all you can do is minimize it - it's a bit like paying dodge ball, you want to be at the back of the pack, not the front.

One person's answer (article) http://dailycaller.com/2014/10/15/passenger-wears-a-hazmat-suit-to-dulles-airport-photo/

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

^^ if that traveler is going to Colorado/Washington then could legally hot box some Cannabis in there

but on the other hand if you let some heavy duty chimpanzee farts rip in there it could be traumatic

Edited October 16, 2014 by CobraSnakeNecktie

[chiang mai]

It was reported by the traveler that the Hazmat suit worked really well and she was certain it helped her avoid several contagious diseases. Regrettably however she was struck by a reversing cab outside the terminal and died on the way to hospital, thereby proving the old adage that whilst you can plan and de-risk all day long, sh*t still happens..

[robertmueller]

The Ebola discussion is only a hype.

What is the body count so far per year? 5'000 or 10'000 or???

When reading the WHO statistics for the year 2011 there are more deaths related to HIV/Aids, diabetes mellitus, diarrhoea, tuberculosis etc.

There is at least one million of dead people for every single above mentioned cause of death.

And for Chiang Mai there wiill always be more casualties in road accidents than Ebola deaths.

P.S. Every single death is a tragedy.

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

^^ how do you know it's the same virus as last year?

Each time it mutates they don't assign it a version number or new name.

That would be kind of interesting.

Ebola 4.13 now with extra exploding vomit

Edited October 16, 2014 by CobraSnakeNecktie

[Bill97]

The more I think about it the more convinced I am that I'm in the right place, in the event it all goes pear shaped. I'm in a quite rural area, semi-remote, hardly any foreigners here, local markets nearby. Instead of having contact with outsiders several times each day I'm going to have contact two or three times a week, I'm probably only going to have contact with foreigners once a month instead of near daily.

The centre of a large western city would scare me, riding the bus, the underground, commuting, as would the prospect of flying or even being in an airport, I see the US is looking retrospectively for 124 passengers who traveled on the same flight as the infected nurse, that is scary.

Point taken about people in survival mode and in denial who flee for safer pastures, that's a risk you can't control, all you can do is minimize it - it's a bit like paying dodge ball, you want to be at the back of the pack, not the front.

How many trips per day do other villagers make into town or to another village?

How many delivery and visit trips do outsiders make into the village daily?

When it arrives it will quickly become a Thai thing more than a visitor thing.

[Chicog]

The Ebola discussion is only a hype.

What is the body count so far per year? 5'000 or 10'000 or???

When reading the WHO statistics for the year 2011 there are more deaths related to HIV/Aids, diabetes mellitus, diarrhoea, tuberculosis etc.

There is at least one million of dead people for every single above mentioned cause of death.

And for Chiang Mai there wiill always be more casualties in road accidents than Ebola deaths.

P.S. Every single death is a tragedy.

The mortality rate is now listed at 70%, and cases are rising exponentially. And you think it's "hype"?

[Robert24]

I agree with Chicoq - this is no hype. The risk of Ebola spreading further is high and this may potentially have a real impact on our lives going forward if it cannot be contained.

With real impact I mean in terms of economy slowing down, travel slowing down etc. Road deaths,HIV etc aren't a good comparison. Better compare it with SARS to understand level of impact to society/economy something like this can have.

[chiang mai]

The more I think about it the more convinced I am that I'm in the right place, in the event it all goes pear shaped. I'm in a quite rural area, semi-remote, hardly any foreigners here, local markets nearby. Instead of having contact with outsiders several times each day I'm going to have contact two or three times a week, I'm probably only going to have contact with foreigners once a month instead of near daily.

The centre of a large western city would scare me, riding the bus, the underground, commuting, as would the prospect of flying or even being in an airport, I see the US is looking retrospectively for 124 passengers who traveled on the same flight as the infected nurse, that is scary.

Point taken about people in survival mode and in denial who flee for safer pastures, that's a risk you can't control, all you can do is minimize it - it's a bit like paying dodge ball, you want to be at the back of the pack, not the front.

How many trips per day do other villagers make into town or to another village?

How many delivery and visit trips do outsiders make into the village daily?

When it arrives it will quickly become a Thai thing more than a visitor thing.

Aw, you're just saying that to try and make me feel better!

[uptheos]

BANGKOK, Oct 16 -- A virus expert in Thailand has pointed out that the Ebola virus disease is unlikely to stop spreading and an outbreak in Asia cannot be ruled out because a large number of Asians are working in Africa.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/768928-thai-doctor-sees-ebola-epidemic-not-ending-soon/#entry8542298

[chiang mai]

Oh dear! I have this feeling that we're all going to die.

[Tokay]

This is not hype. They are reporting up to 10,000 new cases per week by December at the current rate of infection. How do you think that is going to play out when 10,000 per week are catching Ebola? HINT: A lot of people in many countries are going to die.

You run the numbers on that. If it gets that bad, and they think it will, it's going to be biblical.

[chiang mai]

I read that the number of infections is doubling every four weeks, if left unchecked that would be Armageddon by next Spring, the trick will be to stop it at the source I reckon.

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

Probably a contributing reason the US military has ships off the coast of West Africa.

What if the S.S. Radical Islam rolled in and offered a free cruise to people who wanted to flee?

Then set sail for where? South or Central America maybe?

Edited October 18, 2014 by CobraSnakeNecktie

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The problem with the "it's only health care workers outside of Africa" theory is.... health care workers don't live in an isolation bubble... Just look at what's gone on in the U.S. this week.

The second infected nurse was allowed to travel on a domestic airplane flight, even though it turned out she had a low grade fever. Now CDC is trying to contact all the people on the nurse's return flight to Dallas to check for monitoring. While on her trip, she visited with people in the other city. Now they're being monitored.

Meanwhile, another hospital worker who handled specimens from the dead Liberian guy went on a Carnival cruise ship trip, and now she's been placed in isolation onboard the ship while they try to figure out how to get her back to the U.S. (and the Belize govt. where the ship was cruising refused to allow her to go thru their international airport).

All it would take would be one or a few infected Africans to show up in Thailand, eventually get seriously ill and go somewhere for treatment. By the time the Thai hospitals figured out what was going on, you can pretty well bet other people will have been exposed. And by the time the Thai government and health authorities respond, assuming they have any clue of how to deal with Ebola, the cat's likely out of the bag.

Nurses, doctors, ambulance workers etc. have lives. They go home to their families and friends. They go out and socialize. Their children go to school with other children. etc etc etc. And then of course there would be the people who the sick person came into close contact with during their symptomatic period prior to ultimately seeking medical treatment.

I'm not suggesting Armageddon. I'm just saying, look at how poorly the U.S. has done the past two weeks with what started out as just one case...and then consider what likely would have happened had the same case instead showed up here in Thailand.

Edited October 18, 2014 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[mesquite]

I was reading some mainstream U.S. medical journal and reports this morning on Ebola. A couple of interesting things: 1. there was a mention about the Texas authorities now having to figure out how to quarantine the DOG that belongs to the hospital worker who's now become infected, since animals apparently also can catch/spread the disease. 2. There was a statement at a big conference of U.S. pediatricians noting that while there have been official hospital isolation protocols well-established, there hasn't really been the same kind of attention given to lesser health care access points, like individual doctor's offices, clinics, etc. -- which aren't usually equipped with bio hazard suits and isolation wards. What are THEY supposed to do if someone comes in with a high fever, etc??? The suggestion was, to put the patient in an isolated room with water-proof bed covers, etc. and close the door. Then, the doctor is supposed to interview the patient from standing in the doorway, staying at least 3 feet away, to inquire about recent travel and other potential risk indicators. And then if approaching the patient, to only do so with full face mask and other protective gear -- until the medical status is clarified. 3. It was interesting to read all the teeth gnashing going on about HOW the health care worker at the Texas hospital became infected, and to read how the hospital had essentially closed its emergency department for the time being while re-evaluating its procedures and having to monitor/test a lot of potentially exposed personnel. I have the impression of having read not too long back from the U.S. authorities of how their (my country's) health care system (unlike Africa) is capable of dealing with such outbreaks. But you begin to look at the tumult that just one, and now two cases have caused in the U.S., and things begin to look not quite so rosy.

A very big point.

I think it's good that Ebola has arrived in the US and the general public is scared.. That may motivate the US medical community, probably the best in the world, to find a cure and vaccine. As long as Ebola is outside the US borders, the US public within doesn't really care much

Looks like this is happening. WSJ preview only for non-subscribers, but the headline says it all. Thank God for that first guy who brought it to the US so that others could live, may he RIP.

http://on.wsj.com/1rIacax

"Now the current outbreak in West Africa is presenting Tekmira and other drug makers with thousands of potential patients desperate for treatment—and setting off a rush among companies and health officials to find anything that might work"

Edited October 18, 2014 by mesquite

[chiang mai]

The US reaction to this is not dissimilar to its reaction to 9/11, previously there was hardly any border security, then there was an overdose of it. Expect similar when we come out the other side of all this. Gate, bolted, horse, closed, after (and all of that)

Edited October 18, 2014 by chiang mai

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Here's what seems to be a pretty good update and recap on the different treatments and vaccines under development for Ebola, based on a U.S. National Institutes of Health briefing:

http://www.streetinsider.com/FDA/NIH+Offers+Update+on+Progress+of+Ebola+Treatments+and+Vaccines+%28NLNK%29+%28CMRX%29+%28BCRX%29/9908441.html

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

Marburg virus has already set up camp in the Philippines

http://www.uptodate.com/contents/epidemiology-pathogenesis-and-clinical-manifestations-of-ebola-and-marburg-virus-disease

[onthedarkside]

A very offensive post and the replies - all removed.

[Konini]

Was it my post that was offensive? If so I wholeheartedly apologise, when writing I sometimes get carried away, I have been expanding on a theme of how ebola could be spread purposefully if some nefarious type wanted to.

To everyone who I have offended and caused inconvenience to please accept my humble and sincere apology.

[Bill97]

No worries Konini.

You will soon have the opportunity to explain and to apologize to the anti terrorist agents of several countries who have read your post and will be responding.

[mamborobert]

_{Ebola be damned......As I get older and in some ways more irritable but definitely more lazy, I find the only thing that I start to dread and gets me of my arse to actually scheme for a quick departure from Cm is Songkran.}

Edited October 19, 2014 by mamborobert