Thai economy: Pridiyathorn forecasts 4 per cent growth next year

[webfact]

ECONOMY
Pridiyathorn forecasts 4 per cent growth next year

BANGKOK: -- The Thai economy will grow by 4 per cent next year and could be even higher if investment projects across the country are approved, Deputy Prime Minister Pridiyathorn Devakula has forecasted.

He was delivering a speech at an economic seminar during which he highlighted the obstacles Thailand has had to overcome. They included the political turmoil in the most recent seven months and the lagging global economy, which have contributed to growth of only 2 per cent this year.

Pridiyathorn was confident that the expeditious disbursement of this year's fiscal budget would be able to stimulate the Thai economy, contributing to growth of 4% next year. He said growth could be even higher if investment projects across the country are approved.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Pridiyathorn-forecasts-4-per-cent-growth-next-year-30245579.html


-- The Nation 2014-10-16

[thailiketoo]

This guy is not a light weight. He was the Governor of the Bank of Thailand from 2001 to 2006. Following the 2006 Thai coup d'état he served as Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister in the interim civilian government led by Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont. Following the 2014 Thai coup d'état he was appointed as a Deputy Prime Minister in the first military appointed cabinet under General Prayuth Chan-ocha. Two days earlier he had resigned from his position as Chairman of the Board of Post Publishing Plc., the publisher of the Bangkok Post, Thailand's leading English-language newspaper.

He is a son of Prince Priditheppong Devakula, he is therefore a grandson of Prince Devawongse Varopakarn, and a great-grandson of King Rama IV. (Mongkut). Reflecting his distant royal descent, Thai media refer to him as Mom Ui (Thai: หม่อมอุ๋ย; "Lord Ui"), following his nickname "Ui".

Pridiyathorn was educated at Saint Gabriel's College from year 1 to 12. During his childhood, Pridiyathorn rarely came second in school exams, in fact he nearly was the school icon for the student who came first in class.^{[citation needed]} He then studied Economics at the Thammasat University, graduating with a bachelor's degree, and at the Wharton Business School, University of Pennsylvania, where he gained an MBA in 1970.

But having said that 4%! Seems a bit high to me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pridiyathorn_Devakula#Ancestry

[Chang_paarp]

Yeah riiiight.

The economic world think closer to 1.4%. Guess who I'd put money on.

Pridiyathorn suffers from Thai politician disease, make pronouncement then when reminded of it deny or say "I was misquoted".

[Prbkk]

1.4 % more likely, 2.5% would be great, over 3.00% miraculous, 4%, without massive stimulus,...voodoo economics and fantasy

[toybits]

Say Anything. Just about anything, and make sure it sounds positive. A few months from now who'd care about what you said?

[Pib]

The psychic line I called gave me the same 4% forecast.

[shirtless]

We will get monthly downgrades as of January,

[GAZZPA]

And ,,,, Children will be skipping through the safe and drug free streets with big, pearly white smiles.

[h90]

1.4 % more likely, 2.5% would be great, over 3.00% miraculous, 4%, without massive stimulus,...voodoo economics and fantasy

depends also on world economic.....if they play everything perfect they can be happy with a 3 %.

4 I don't know how that should be possible

[Robespiere]

This guy is not a light weight. He was the Governor of the Bank of Thailand from 2001 to 2006. Following the 2006 Thai coup d'état he served as Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister in the interim civilian government led by Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont. Following the 2014 Thai coup d'état he was appointed as a Deputy Prime Minister in the first military appointed cabinet under General Prayuth Chan-ocha. Two days earlier he had resigned from his position as Chairman of the Board of Post Publishing Plc., the publisher of the Bangkok Post, Thailand's leading English-language newspaper.

He is a son of Prince Priditheppong Devakula, he is therefore a grandson of Prince Devawongse Varopakarn, and a great-grandson of King Rama IV. (Mongkut). Reflecting his distant royal descent, Thai media refer to him as Mom Ui (Thai: หม่อมอุ๋ย; "Lord Ui"), following his nickname "Ui".

Pridiyathorn was educated at Saint Gabriel's College from year 1 to 12. During his childhood, Pridiyathorn rarely came second in school exams, in fact he nearly was the school icon for the student who came first in class.^{[citation needed]} He then studied Economics at the Thammasat University, graduating with a bachelor's degree, and at the Wharton Business School, University of Pennsylvania, where he gained an MBA in 1970.

But having said that 4%! Seems a bit high to me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pridiyathorn_Devakula#Ancestry

This guy is an idiot.

He is the nutsack who introduced capital controls and caused a single day $US20 billion crash in the Thai stock market.

"Pridiyathorn instituted capital controls to attempt to reverse a strengthening of the baht, but reversed the measure after the Thai stock market crashed, destroying US$20 billion of market value in one day. Pridiyathorn later noted that “This was not a mistake. Measures always have side effects. Once we knew the side effects, we quickly fixed it.... Just one day of stocks falling is not considered much damage.” He came under harsh criticism. Bratin Sanyal, head of Asian equity investments at ING in Hong Kong noted, "The one thing worse than an incompetent central bank is an incompetent central bank that flip-flops." Catherine Tan, head of Asia Emerging Markets at Forecast in Singapore, noted, "They are proving themselves to be very unprofessional. Their actions are very irresponsible. They have totally lost credibility... I don't see foreigners returning to Thailand any time in the near future. Markets now have no confidence in the government." The Export-Import Bank of Thailand also criticized the capital controls".

[catweazle]

Yeah! Because Thailand offers so many benefits to potential invstors such as an astonishing 49% ownership of the company/business you financed by a 100% along with the Damocles sword in form of another possible visa rule "reform" hanging over your head...

[Chris Lawrence]

Sounds as though they have picked a team equal to that of the Titanic?

What about revenue? You can grow but if the cash is not coming in it means sweet <deleted>#k all.

This is where the press needs to be active in questioning these geniuses.

[Thailand]

4% or recession! one of the two.

[TheCruncher]

I forecast 5%.............Do I hear 6, once.........twice.............5 we have 5.....................

[AGareth2]

information received from a fortune teller?

[rickirs]

This is just cheerleader economics.

Kirida Bhaopichtir, Senior Economist with the World Bank's Bangkok Office, said that the economic growth next year would be 3.5 per cent.

Santitarm Sathirathai, a research analyst at Credit Suisse, said in a new Credit Suisse report that the government's new stimulus package is helpful but unlikely to boost growth as much as many people expect, according to a new Credit Suisse report. Essentially, the current stimulus package could boost gross domestic product in 2014 but at the expense of 2015 growth as spending that would have happened next year was being shifted to 2014.

The Junta needs an economic win to make up the loss of 3%-5% of GDP that it cost the nation for its overthrow of the government. Anything short of a quick and substantial economic boost will lose its creditability.

[Robby nz]

I m in awe of the brilliant economists who have posted on this topic so far.

However not being such myself I have to rely on others who do know of these things, for instance Credit Suisse whose 2013-2014 wealth report tells us that Thailand has been one of the big losers in household wealth in that time with a loss of around 8%. This of course was during the tenure of the previous administration.

See the full report at

file:///C:/Users/ASUS/Documents/credit-suisse-global-wealth-report-2014.pdf

That being the case a big turnaround would seem to be needed but first the country must get over the fallout from the previous failed policies.

[thailiketoo]

I m in awe of the brilliant economists who have posted on this topic so far.

However not being such myself I have to rely on others who do know of these things, for instance Credit Suisse whose 2013-2014 wealth report tells us that Thailand has been one of the big losers in household wealth in that time with a loss of around 8%. This of course was during the tenure of the previous administration.

See the full report at

file:///C:/Users/ASUS/Documents/credit-suisse-global-wealth-report-2014.pdf

That being the case a big turnaround would seem to be needed but first the country must get over the fallout from the previous failed policies.

I think most economies are rated by the GNP why would you care about the global wealth report when evaluating a country?

[Ozziepat]

Economics is not a science. Economists essentially read tea leaves and make predictions - when they aren't busy experimenting with economies - that are usually wrong by huge amounts (A 4% prognostication followed by a 1.5% reality equate to a whopping 62.5% "oops.") for which they never suffer any personal consequences. That said, by a combination of binge spending and manipulation of data governments can produce a range of GDP growth. Easy. And did I mention that GDP is a horrible and essentially irrelevant measure of economic health, growth or anything else - for the above and other reasons? But governments and media seem to like it. That should tell you something also.