Ebola crisis: Infections 'slowing in Liberia'

(BBC) The World Health Organization (WHO) says there has been a decline in the spread of Ebola in Liberia, the country hardest hit in the outbreak.

The WHO's Bruce Aylward said it was confident the response to the virus was now gaining the upper hand.

But he warned against any suggestion that the crisis was over.

The WHO later said the number of cases globally had risen more than 3,000 to 13,703 since its last report, but that this was due to reporting reasons.

The number of deaths was put at 4,920, roughly the same as the last report four days ago. All but 10 of the deaths have been in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

Full story: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29822303


-- BBC 2014-10-30

They are trying to stem the panic. According to many experts it is still on the rise.

I don't believe a thing that comes from the CDC or the WHO.

For a start reporting the number of deaths as pretty much the same 4 days ago just goes to show they are not accurate figures. You don't go from about 100 a day dying to hardly any deaths in 4 days. Not when infections are still rising. Unless they are trying to tell us that all of a sudden the mortality rate has dropped from 71% to almost nothing overnight.

If infections are rising, then deaths will rise in line with it.

They are trying to stem the panic. According to many experts it is still on the rise.

I don't believe a thing that comes from the CDC or the WHO.

For a start reporting the number of deaths as pretty much the same 4 days ago just goes to show they are not accurate figures. You don't go from about 100 a day dying to hardly any deaths in 4 days. Not when infections are still rising. Unless they are trying to tell us that all of a sudden the mortality rate has dropped from 71% to almost nothing overnight.

If infections are rising, then deaths will rise in line with it.

I( = I(a)^e(k(b-a))

Where:

I( is the number of infections at time b

I(a) is the number of infections at time a

k is the rate constant for new infections

b-a is the difference in time relative to k

The rate constant for new infections is falling. If this continues the disease is finally getting under control.

"... a decline in the spread of Ebola in Liberia ..."

Not to be morbid but such a decline is a shame for Thailand who has plans to become the hub for ebola vaccine and cures.

When the establishment says all is ok it's time to run.