Thai Baht AUS$ falling everyday. Anyone have an insight on what may happen?

[Jonmarleesco]

'Some are saying the AUS$ will fall to 0.80c US before it comes back ...' There's a reason why John Kenneth Galbraith recognised two just kinds of forecaster: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.

[JacChang]

Want my financially sound advice?

I just had a look for you.

Short term, the AUD will continue to depreciate. We are looking at 28.5 and below in half a year's time.

However long term, the AUD is currently at one of it's low points in a 10 year time frame, which is very attractive for investors to jump in to buy AUD about next month or so. You are looking at 1-2 years time before the AUD appreciates back up to 30.5 and above levels.

Conclusion

If you are transferring money over to Thailand in these 3 months, do it now, don't wait. The current short term trend is still downwards, we haven't hit the bottom yet, but soon.

If you can wait 1-2 years, then wait, if not, just do it now.

[mataleo]

Russian rubel hit the bottom...

[Mudcrab]

Thanks for all the advice fellers. I think I'll just go over and sit tight. Problem is we live about 60km out from the city and renting a car is prohibitive and too far for a motor bike.

I have to say this is the only forum I have ever been on where there is 100% positive and constructive advice. Great to not have someone jump in correcting spelling errors or driving your question off topic completely with a side debate before even getting an answer. Great stuff!

Give it time mate!!

Sure as the Sun comes up cobber!

Edited November 7, 2014 by Mudcrab

[RikDao]

The low price for Iron Ore is hurting the AUD, along with the new restrictions China has placed on coal fired emissions.... Australia is a quarry, and sadly is at the mercy of world commodity markets... Look for above than expected Chinese growth figures and the AUD will strengthen.... The other yolk around the neck of the AUD, is the highest unemployment figures in 12 years.. Business, has openly lost confidence in the government which is another small but important factor.

The USD is rallying, rightly or wrongly, we have to wait and see... The USD jumped on the election of the republicans a couple of days ago, but I feel that may be short lived optimism.

I think the silver lining is the Baht, IMO, it is heading for a decline... The stimulus package either hasn't been effective or has only in part been implemented... that is unclear, because the current Thai Govt, is a very confusing animal itself... The projected growth rate for Thailand is 1.5%, well below like countries in the region....

Gold is low atm, at 1133 USD, but I would wait.. I have seen forecasts of 800 USD by the end of 2015.. whether that happens or not is another thing.

YO! The dollar rallied because of the Republicans the other day??? LOL. And it'll be short-lived??? Double LOL!

The dollar has been in a sustained rally since last May, when it bottomed out (last 12 months prices, anyway) at about .79 euros, I believe. Now it's .88. Yeah, it rallied a little bit the other day, more than usual like you said, but it's been rallying for quite a while, against all other currencies, and if not against all, against most, for sure.

And the Repukes are known for hubris. They will self-destruct, maybe very quickly, since those boys and girls would sell their own mommies for the right price. They'll turn on and eat other alive, just watch. They haven't had any positive ideas or programs for decades. Hill will be sitting pretty in 2 years time... In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Bill, Hill, and Barry didn't plan it this way.

As fas as the baht is concerned, it's been doing what every currency has been doing vs the dollar.

[Naam]

The AUD is at levels that au treasury are not all that happy with. The exchange rate against the standard..ie greenback was a while back very high.

Normal rates for AUD may fall below 0.80 USD. Some predicting lower....

If you live here and have to exchange into baht on regular basis move your aid into something else. Gold would not be stupid, esp given world events.

no daydreaming please! actually AU Treasury is quite happy that the AUD/USD had reached a level which was desirable a year ago.

December 13, 2013

RESERVE Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens says he'd prefer a fall in the value of the Australian dollar over lower interest rates as a means to lift the local economy.

Mr Stevens said on Friday he would like a dollar closer to 85 US cents to help stimulate trade-exposed sectors of the economy.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/rbas-glenn-stevens-wants-australian-dollar-closer-to-85-us-cents/story-e6frfm30-1226782084533

[Cletus]

As you already know it's impossible to predict what will happen to the exchange rate.

Best strategy in this case would be to just not convert all your AUD to bath in one single time, but do it in, say, 3 or 4 times in one or two months.

IMO

[Tony125]

Report on not buying gold now--predicted to go to $1050 USD by end of year $800 USD by next year. Gold was at $1900 less than 4 years ago now stands at $1,143 as of Nov6th in USA Thats a huge drop. Baht is 32.87 to the USD

http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2014/10/28/ask-stacy-1028-should-i-buy-gold/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2014-10-28&utm_medium=email

[Doc46]

The naked truth is,,,,,keep an eye on the exchange,,,,it goes up and down, pick a day you like to transfer money ,if you can wait,some day you may lose a bit someday you may gain a bit.

[holymoly]

Go to

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CAD&to=THB

Has great info in terms of graphs for all currencies on a daily, weekly, monthly yearly basis..........

Gives you some idea of past fluctuations

[mataleo]

have look on and on the right look NEWS https://www.google.com/finance?q=audUSD&ei=fL1cVMhlzKGSBbzYgaAI

[konying]

Just looking at AU economy and its pressures is wrong.One should also consider the condition of Thai economy.

And the truth is Thai economy is in "crapper" despite all the horn blowing by the government, it is in decline and personally i think next year will see bigger problems.

Tourists are not coming back, despite what TAT claims, Prices are rising yet people have no money.

Many business are starting to fold and many more to follow after failed high season.

I think best is to wait for few months next year and see, because i honestly can not see Thai baht staying strong should this year high season 'fail"

While tourism is not the major part of economy but 10% is still big enough to shake it really hard

[flynn]

Dropped to below 28 today on the street,

[jacksam]

Just to have a joke....sitting in cafe having a beer with the Thai gf....she ask what I type on TV....tell her exchange rates (she knows what that is) ....I go HCMC for couple of weeks tomorrow. I ask her ....." How you want money while me away while I away...gold AUD or baht."

She ask what way is good.

I say Thai baht

She say I take gold you always BS me.

[CNXTim]

the Baht is artificially linked to the USD. Even though the overall economy here in Thailand is in dire straights.

All other currencies are in the same boat. As long as the world continues to prop the USD by overvaluing it, this technically bankrupt currency will continue to surprise.

[jacksam]

The AUD is at levels that au treasury are not all that happy with. The exchange rate against the standard..ie greenback was a while back very high.

Normal rates for AUD may fall below 0.80 USD. Some predicting lower....

If you live here and have to exchange into baht on regular basis move your aid into something else. Gold would not be stupid, esp given world events.

no daydreaming please! actually AU Treasury is quite happy that the AUD/USD had reached a level which was desirable a year ago.

December 13, 2013

RESERVE Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens says he'd prefer a fall in the value of the Australian dollar over lower interest rates as a means to lift the local economy.

Mr Stevens said on Friday he would like a dollar closer to 85 US cents to help stimulate trade-exposed sectors of the economy.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/rbas-glenn-stevens-wants-australian-dollar-closer-to-85-us-cents/story-e6frfm30-1226782084533

Hello sunshine.... The AU Treasury does not control the exchange rate.....its a simple demand/supply and subject to fluctuations outside the control of treasury.......they have expressed "what they would like"

Perhaps you did eco 101 in days of fixed exchange rates

Spare me trite advice

[jacksam]

Nice goggle effort ....except understand the subject rather than qotes

[jacksam]

the Baht is artificially linked to the USD. Even though the overall economy here in Thailand is in dire straights.

All other currencies are in the same boat. As long as the world continues to prop the USD by overvaluing it, this technically bankrupt currency will continue to surprise.

Not disagreeing ...you might like to research OIL PRICES TRADED IN USD.

USA does interesting stuff.....time bomb? Some say yes some so no way....fact is huge economy....

[IAMHERE]

You have not a bank account in Thailand. You can not send money now. So you want to know if now is time to send money? OK, yes.

[MikeN]

The current exchange rate of around 28/AU$ is about the average for the last few years. sure it was higher recently at the height of the mining boom, but I would n't expect it to go back to those heights anytime soon. Apart from the commodities boom, the baht and AU$ both go up and down more or less in synch against the US$. Baht and aussie dollars are small fry in the FX world, what counts is the health of the US economy and the demand for US dollars. Change your money now, or wait a while ..up to you.

[Aussieroaming]

Suck it up brother. I buy $us to re- sell when their exchange rate drops.

Likewise at the moment the yen is in deep <deleted>. So don't buy baht, buy yen and when the yen picks up use it to buy baht when the baht weakens.

Of course it's always a gamble but reality is the yen will increase again and the baht, which is riding high will drop off.

So it isn't always a straight exchange...if you have finance you can wait and hedge the future rates.

Good luck to you

[Langeman]

Try looking at ozforex.com.au

Thaibath all time follow US Dollar

[MexicanFarang]

In 20001, you could get 40B/USD.

Now, it's 32B. And prices are 50-100% higher.

My prediction: You will get fewer Baht per Aus $ in the future and prices in Thailand will increase.

[kennw]

Be sensible, look at what the big banks are forecasting, they use the best informed people with access to relevant date. Citi and NAB are both forecasting a downward trend thru to 2015, Citi forecast US$/A$ 0.86 in Dec 1014 and 0.82 in Dec 2015. I have found their trend correct, timing is often out a bit out and there are short term up and down swings,around the trend line. But the forecast trend is down. So if you have to bring money in do it sooner than later.

[Benmart]

Dont confuse the value of USD to health of economy overall....you may wish to look at USA debt.

And don't forget to take a peek at Thai debt, as well as the rest of the world.

Good health is beyond mortal control. The same applies for fiscal well being. Various polices, strategies, treatments, ointments and elixirs may be applied. But the end result is impossible to predict, else we would all be millionaires that live to be 100.

Just my Two-Satangs worth.

[jacksam]

The current exchange rate of around 28/AU$ is about the average for the last few years. sure it was higher recently at the height of the mining boom, but I would n't expect it to go back to those heights anytime soon. Apart from the commodities boom, the baht and AU$ both go up and down more or less in synch against the US$. Baht and aussie dollars are small fry in the FX world, what counts is the health of the US economy and the demand for US dollars. Change your money now, or wait a while ..up to you.

And that would be a country like Australia with a population of approx 26 million is 5th or 6th most traded currency. That in it self means little. More important is that currency has produced best yield over last ten years. .

[Ulic]

Economies around the world are soft, commodities even softer, house prices in Canada/Australia are mind boggling in relation

to earnings and people are mortgaged to the hilt. If interest rates go up people will not be able to make there mortgage payments

and the banks will be in trouble. So governments are unlikely to raise interest rates significantly any time soon. Regardless of the employment

rates improving. The only issues is when will the world look behind the curtain at the USD as the worlds reserve currency. With

US debt/spending going up, up and up, when will the house of cards collapse. 18 months, or 18 years not sure but look at Greece,

Argentina,Iceland, etc... etc...Not saying the US is any one of those but it is a slippery slope. So in the near term the currencies of

Australia, Canada and the like will soften. But remember all predictions up and down will eventually come true, the question is the timing.

One other thing, I understand Switzerland is holding a referendum on weather the Swiss Franc should be backed by gold. Apparently

if the vote goes through as one side (not the government) hopes, the Swiss central bank would have to purchase 16 million tons of gold.

Not sure if this is even as close as the article I read says (lots of chicken littles out there) but it would have a big effect on the price of gold

and the fiat currency system.

[David48]

I have to be honest ...

Just read every post here.

Why is the major number of posts refer to the US/THB exchange rate?

The OP refers and enquires about the AUD/THB exchange rate.

Not related rates of exchange.

So, for clarification ... the OP is asking about the exchange rate between the Australian dollar and the Thai Baht.

.

[David48]

I'm an Aussie and have been doing the exchange rate shuffle for the best part of the past 7 years.

Yes, the trend line for the Aussie dollar is down. When will the nadir be discovered ... no-one knows for sure.

If we knew, then we would be on the 'Retired in the Maldives forum' and not the 'Retired in Thailand forum' ... just joking about the 'Retired' bit.

All the minutes from the Australian Reserve Bank indicate, below trend growth, low inflation, a minor housing bubble and concern for a high Australian dollar exchange rate against a Basket of international currencies. The US dollar being referred to the most because it's the most traded currency in the world, thus seen as a benchmark.

Glenn Stevens, who is the Reserve Bank Governor has the market pulling him two ways.

He wants a lower Aussie exchange rate to enable the manufacturing base to recover as out mining sector declines.

But he also has an eye on raising interest rates to dampen the housing market.

ATM those two push/pull factors is keeping the Reserves Bank Interest Rates steady.

[David48]

To explain all the factors that influence the AUD/TBH Exchange rate (from an Aussie perspective) would take a page of writing which would bore us both silly.

So, OP, in the best guess answer to your question, I'll actually agree with the conclusion of JacChang ...

Want my financially sound advice?

I just had a look for you.

Short term, the AUD will continue to depreciate. We are looking at 28.5 and below in half a year's time.

However long term, the AUD is currently at one of it's low points in a 10 year time frame, which is very attractive for investors to jump in to buy AUD about next month or so. You are looking at 1-2 years time before the AUD appreciates back up to 30.5 and above levels.

Conclusion

If you are transferring money over to Thailand in these 3 months, do it now, don't wait. The current short term trend is still downwards, we haven't hit the bottom yet, but soon.

If you can wait 1-2 years, then wait, if not, just do it now.

I had a fair lick of my money in the Thai Stock Market, meaning I held Thai Baht by default.

For the past 4 months, I've been transferring back into the Aussie dollar as the exchange rates slide and I make money by having Thai Baht.

Al, of course, IMHO

.