Thai editorial: The risks of getting too close to China

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EDITORIAL
The risks of getting too close to China
The Nation

Thailand is dependent on Beijing for infrastructure development, but too much reliance threatens our relations elsewhere

BANGKOK: -- Dealing with China might be a comforting prospect for Thailand's military-dominated government, but Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha must watch his step amid the international gathering of leaders in Beijing.

Prayut attended the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in China this week, where global issues are up for discussion. The Thai leader is rubbing shoulders with his counterparts from the world's powers, including the United States, China and Japan.

Thailand, and even Asean, are likely playing a minor role amid a summit dominated by the problems facing major powers. Host Beijing is taking the opportunity to promote its economic projects by highlighting its Silk Road projects for trade routes that unite the continent, and its own version of an international free-trade arrangement.

The US is competing with China to maintain its economic opportunities and political power in Asia-Pacific. Washington has for years promoted a comprehensive trade deal known as the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), but China has declared from time to time that it has no faith in the US-sponsored scheme.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Premier Sinzo Abe have their own agendas for the Apec summit. Moscow has become closer to Beijing in a rebalancing act to counter Western influence, notably over the Ukraine crisis, while Tokyo is attempting to fine-tune the geo-politic balance in the region as it defends its position on disputed territory in the East China Sea.

Prime Minister Prayut also has his agenda at the Apec meet, but is, perhaps, leaning for support on Beijing. He discussed regional economic cooperation in a panel discussion, but the issues were not highlighted. Prayut's focus during the Apec summit was on a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang to promote bilateral cooperation - mostly asking China to help solve the Thai government's domestic problems.

Prayut's government badly needs China's support on the proposal for a rail line linking Thailand, Laos and China, as well as the Chinese purchase of Thai farm products, notably rice and rubber. Thai governments in recent years have pushed for the railway project to connect regional logistics. The Thai segment would run between Bangkok and Nong Khai on the border with Laos. But the project has been politicised far too much in past years. The previous government proposed a high-speed rail link but that idea met with strong opposition among those who feared it might create a huge public debt burden and chances for corrupt politicians to line their pockets. The speed of the trains is no longer an issue, but Thailand still needs the rail link, no matter how fast it is. At issue is how to build it without attracting a large external debt burden and corruption among unelected politicians.

An adviser to the junta has proposed that we barter Thai rice and rubber in exchange for Chinese railway-construction expertise. A Thai delegation in Beijing ahead of Prayut's visit floated the idea, but the result of the meeting between Prayut and Chinese leaders does not suggest strong commitment from Beijing.

Of course for the benefit of good relations, China might be willing to buy farm products from Thailand, but not in huge volume to fund the rail system. Beijing will build it as long as Thailand has enough money or can make the project viable for investors.

All that Prayut got for certain from his attendance at the Apec summit is the diplomatic words of Chinese leaders. That might be good for his political standing back home, but friendly words from Beijing are precisely all that the previous government got and won't translate into real commitments in the short term.

Meanwhile Thailand will risk its relations with regional neighbours and much of the rest of the international community if it gets too close and too reliant on Beijing.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/The-risks-of-getting-too-close-to-China-30247450.html


-- The Nation 2014-11-11

[kimamey]

I haven't got the time to read all this report but this part makes me doubt it's accuracy.

Moscow has become closer to Beijing in a rebalancing act to counter Western influence, notably over the Ukraine crisis,

As far as I know China has been anything but supportive of Moscow over the issue of Ukraine despite it's normal close ties with Russia. The idea of parts of a country deciding to hold it's own polls to decide to create their own states and allegiances isn't going to be popular with China on many fronts, the most obvious being Tibet.

[NeverSure]

Get in bed with crocodiles and see what happens.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Premier Sinzo Abe have their own agendas for the Apec summit. Moscow has become closer to Beijing in a rebalancing act to counter Western influence, notably over the Ukraine crisis, while Tokyo is attempting to fine-tune the geo-politic balance in the region as it defends its position on disputed territory in the East China Sea."

The US doesn't have protectionist import duties. It should slam both China and Thailand with duties exactly the same as what they charge. That would make US manufacturing more than competitive with cheap Asian labor and bring jobs to the US. China and Thailand would stumble badly.

I first heard how badly the US is getting screwed in this from Donald Trump who was on a talk show perhaps a year ago. Why send money to people who are constantly causing trouble?

[MexicanFarang]

The Thai leader is rubbing shoulders with his counterparts from the world's powers, including the United States, China and Japan.

Thailand: Hub of World Power

[chainarong]

It is a welcome sign that not everyone in Thailand en-compasses the Prayuth lead governments sortie into China and dare I say it the former PTP , It is the mindset of the communist administration that is the problem not the people, when you deal with the Chinese Government you understand that to do business with them it is only for them , they really want to own you , from the currency price difference between the Yuan and Baht for Free trade through to the interpretation of project design drawings, to manpower arrangements, there will be attempts to undermine institutions, government departments and make decisions without authority, just saying China is going to be the country doing this rail project without any input or Transparency of tenders from established countries such as Japan, Germany or UK beggers disbelief ( The Prayuth transparency) and the worrying thought is that China tried to hijack the Japanese Rail tech-knowledge, when for the very first time they let it out of Japan and China had the audacity to file a complaint with the world court for Breach of copyright and tried to claim it theirs , this went into the waste paper bin, but that will show you what sort of mindset you are dealing with.

[NongKhaiKid]

It is a welcome sign that not everyone in Thailand en-compasses the Prayuth lead governments sortie into China and dare I say it the former PTP , It is the mindset of the communist administration that is the problem not the people, when you deal with the Chinese Government you understand that to do business with them it is only for them , they really want to own you , from the currency price difference between the Yuan and Baht for Free trade through to the interpretation of project design drawings, to manpower arrangements, there will be attempts to undermine institutions, government departments and make decisions without authority, just saying China is going to be the country doing this rail project without any input or Transparency of tenders from established countries such as Japan, Germany or UK beggers disbelief ( The Prayuth transparency) and the worrying thought is that China tried to hijack the Japanese Rail tech-knowledge, when for the very first time they let it out of Japan and China had the audacity to file a complaint with the world court for Breach of copyright and tried to claim it theirs , this went into the waste paper bin, but that will show you what sort of mindset you are dealing with.

Yes it's not just about politics.

As I posted yesterday there are many in Africa that now regret their country allowed China in to a massive extent and where loans, aid etc led to control.

[gemini81]

The Thai leader is rubbing shoulders with his counterparts from the world's powers, including the United States, China and Japan.

Thailand: Hub of World Power

LOL hardly a hub of world power here.

[yellowboat]

Get in bed with crocodiles and see what happens.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Premier Sinzo Abe have their own agendas for the Apec summit. Moscow has become closer to Beijing in a rebalancing act to counter Western influence, notably over the Ukraine crisis, while Tokyo is attempting to fine-tune the geo-politic balance in the region as it defends its position on disputed territory in the East China Sea."

The US doesn't have protectionist import duties. It should slam both China and Thailand with duties exactly the same as what they charge. That would make US manufacturing more than competitive with cheap Asian labor and bring jobs to the US. China and Thailand would stumble badly.

I first heard how badly the US is getting screwed in this from Donald Trump who was on a talk show perhaps a year ago. Why send money to people who are constantly causing trouble?

Part of what you say is true, but at the same time, Americans can be pretty lazy at going after business in China and Thailand. There have been some successes. China drinks LOTS of Budwiser, which use to be an American owned. Buicks are popular in China. I do not see enough boots on the ground from American businesses.

Also, China manufacturing got its start from Taiwan and Hong Kong banks, which had intamate understanding of manufacturing. Banks in the US lack this. They are more interested in home and car lones.

[boomerangutang]

It's about control. In any transaction between Thailand and China, China will maintain control while concurrently making it appear Thailand is in control. It's a ratchet affect. Just like with Tibet, the S.China Sea and Taiwan, ....China want to spread its control and ownership as far as possible. SE Asia is like a chunk of cheese outside an apartment full of mice.

[EyesWideOpen]

Pretty shortsighted leadership on the part of Thailand, or supreme arrogance.

After watching China take over Africa, gobble up Laos like a snack, and

try to seize everything in the South China Sea, I would think if Thai leadership

had any brains at all they would steer well clear of China. Making friends

with the neighborhood bully can seem like a good idea until he turns on you.

And as someone noted, if Thailand thinks they are going to get the best of China in

a deal, then the leadership here is stupider than I thought.

[chainarong]

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Pretty shortsighted leadership on the part of Thailand, or supreme arrogance.

After watching China take over Africa, gobble up Laos like a snack, and

try to seize everything in the South China Sea, I would think if Thai leadership

had any brains at all they would steer well clear of China. Making friends

with the neighborhood bully can seem like a good idea until he turns on you.

And as someone noted, if Thailand thinks they are going to get the best of China in

a deal, then the leadership here is stupider than I thought.

Any deal will go only one way and it certainly wont be Thailand's way, Prayuth is a fool if he thinks China regards Thais as equals.

[rametindallas]

It is a welcome sign that not everyone in Thailand en-compasses the Prayuth lead governments sortie into China and dare I say it the former PTP , It is the mindset of the communist administration that is the problem not the people, when you deal with the Chinese Government you understand that to do business with them it is only for them , they really want to own you , from the currency price difference between the Yuan and Baht for Free trade through to the interpretation of project design drawings, to manpower arrangements, there will be attempts to undermine institutions, government departments and make decisions without authority, just saying China is going to be the country doing this rail project without any input or Transparency of tenders from established countries such as Japan, Germany or UK beggers disbelief ( The Prayuth transparency) and the worrying thought is that China tried to hijack the Japanese Rail tech-knowledge, when for the very first time they let it out of Japan and China had the audacity to file a complaint with the world court for Breach of copyright and tried to claim it theirs , this went into the waste paper bin, but that will show you what sort of mindset you are dealing with.

Mexico cancels China contract for high-speed train line

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29948331

Wake up, Thailand. China buys its way into a contract and then uses the same contract as leverage. In what other country has China built a HSR? Why be first (read research guinea pig), Thailand?

[MiKT]

Actually China has built a very good high speed train network, but a HST is not what is required to link China to Thailand (and on to Malaysia/Singapore as they intend) via Laos.

What is required is a medium speed <<200 KPH with freight capacity.

Since Laos has almost nothing to export (yet) the link will benefit China the most, but Thailand can also benefit if the conditions of ownership of the railway network are satisfactorily resolved. At the moment China is demanding to own the whole railway (including the rights of way in Laos and Thailand and this will not constitute a good long term deal for Thailand. In effect China is asking for the rout to be part of China and the long term results of this do not require much imagination to see that his will not be good for Thailand.

[RustBucket]

Oh dear.

We all know what happens when you shake hands with the devil.

Thailand won't come out of this as the winner.

As someone pointed out already, Thailand is throwing itself down the road that Africa mistakenly went and all we need is a transport system for transporting all Thailand's natural resources directly into the Chinese transport network.

[jpeg]

Prayut's focus during the Apec summit was on a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang to promote bilateral cooperation - mostly asking China to help solve the Thai government's domestic problems.

Yes, Prayuth and Xi Jinping have an awful lot in common in this department. Most notably censorship, calling in dissenters for 'attitude adjustment' and an agenda to push their countries back to 'the good old days'.

[rickirs]

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I haven't got the time to read all this report but this part makes me doubt it's accuracy.

Moscow has become closer to Beijing in a rebalancing act to counter Western influence, notably over the Ukraine crisis,

As far as I know China has been anything but supportive of Moscow over the issue of Ukraine despite it's normal close ties with Russia. The idea of parts of a country deciding to hold it's own polls to decide to create their own states and allegiances isn't going to be popular with China on many fronts, the most obvious being Tibet.

I think it's not tiny, undeveloped Tibet but the populous Muslim dominated Xinjiang Province and westernized Hong Kong that China is concerned about. In many ways the Xinjuang Province is similar to Thailand's Muslim dominated South in terms of cultural suppression. China has shown itself to successively resist changing its internal management of the country as it engages in foreigner trade agreements. As an example China is not a political fan of its greatest trade partner the USA. Why would it be with Russia?

[wow64]

Rice for a Rail link.. seriously.

Wasn't the term no money no honey coined in Thailand.

[behonset]

Get in bed with crocodiles and see what happens.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Premier Sinzo Abe have their own agendas for the Apec summit. Moscow has become closer to Beijing in a rebalancing act to counter Western influence, notably over the Ukraine crisis, while Tokyo is attempting to fine-tune the geo-politic balance in the region as it defends its position on disputed territory in the East China Sea."

The US doesn't have protectionist import duties. It should slam both China and Thailand with duties exactly the same as what they charge. That would make US manufacturing more than competitive with cheap Asian labor and bring jobs to the US. China and Thailand would stumble badly.

I first heard how badly the US is getting screwed in this from Donald Trump who was on a talk show perhaps a year ago. Why send money to people who are constantly causing trouble?

yes I agree getting close to the USA crocodile is not good for any country

[boomerangutang]

The current self-appointed PM is doing the same as the Shinawatres who preceded him. The Shinawatres are unabashedly Chinese-Thai. Is Prayut also? I agree with above poster, bullet trains aren't sensible. Dual track 200 Km/hr trains may be ok, depending on the terms. For starters, Thailand will borrow the money for whatever it builds. For a joint project with China, Chinese banks will loan most of the money. Anytime a bank loans money, it wants collateral. As regards the train, the collateral will be the hardware, the infrastructure and probably the land right-of-ways. If it's anything like the deal which financed the train route over the Sierra Nevada mountains in California in the 19th century, vast tracts of property adjoining the right-of-way will be part of the bargain. Probably not, in this Thailand-China scenario. Incidentally, in the US example, the four financiers were promised multiples of 1 square mile adjoining tracts of land. The financiers took the land, but in a checkerboard pattern. If you look at maps of that region today, you can see vast swaths of territory of the Sierra Nevada mountains divvied up with that checkerboard pattern.

Thailand changes governments roughly every 20 months. If the terms of a financing agreement spanned 60 years, that would constitute about 36 different governments. If any one of those 36 were late in a payment, Chinese banks could take over the railroad, its infrastructure and property. farfetched? No more so than militarily commandeering Tibet, or laying claim to the entire S.China sea.

[wileycoyote]

I would hesitate in getting too close to China .

Thailand should be a strong member of ASEAN.

An ally of the USA & historically a close supporter of Japan.

[Time Traveller]

Prime Thief Prayut has chosen China. And like the supreme leader says the Thai media should just shut up and stop questioning his infinite wisdom and benevolance.

[Robespiere]

When it comes to making friends, anti-democratic authoritarian regimes don't have too many choices.

It's China or bust for Prayuth and his cohorts.

[EyesWideOpen]

When it comes to making friends, anti-democratic authoritarian regimes don't have too many choices.

It's China or bust for Prayuth and his cohorts.

Haha yeah I guess his choice of possible friends would be China , North Korea, or

Mynmar. Kind of a rough lot.....

[Thai at Heart]

Get in bed with crocodiles and see what happens.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Premier Sinzo Abe have their own agendas for the Apec summit. Moscow has become closer to Beijing in a rebalancing act to counter Western influence, notably over the Ukraine crisis, while Tokyo is attempting to fine-tune the geo-politic balance in the region as it defends its position on disputed territory in the East China Sea."

The US doesn't have protectionist import duties. It should slam both China and Thailand with duties exactly the same as what they charge. That would make US manufacturing more than competitive with cheap Asian labor and bring jobs to the US. China and Thailand would stumble badly.

I first heard how badly the US is getting screwed in this from Donald Trump who was on a talk show perhaps a year ago. Why send money to people who are constantly causing trouble?

Part of what you say is true, but at the same time, Americans can be pretty lazy at going after business in China and Thailand. There have been some successes. China drinks LOTS of Budwiser, which use to be an American owned. Buicks are popular in China. I do not see enough boots on the ground from American businesses.

Also, China manufacturing got its start from Taiwan and Hong Kong banks, which had intamate understanding of manufacturing. Banks in the US lack this. They are more interested in home and car lones.

Breaking into the Chinese market is nowhere near as easy as you think and is often stacked against you. It is only in the last decade as middle income has increased that most western corporations have been able to start making money there.

The market is not flat and is fraught with problems. Going partially local can be a solution. Just look at kfc.

[NeverSure]

Get in bed with crocodiles and see what happens.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Premier Sinzo Abe have their own agendas for the Apec summit. Moscow has become closer to Beijing in a rebalancing act to counter Western influence, notably over the Ukraine crisis, while Tokyo is attempting to fine-tune the geo-politic balance in the region as it defends its position on disputed territory in the East China Sea."

The US doesn't have protectionist import duties. It should slam both China and Thailand with duties exactly the same as what they charge. That would make US manufacturing more than competitive with cheap Asian labor and bring jobs to the US. China and Thailand would stumble badly.

I first heard how badly the US is getting screwed in this from Donald Trump who was on a talk show perhaps a year ago. Why send money to people who are constantly causing trouble?

yes I agree getting close to the USA crocodile is not good for any country

When has the US gobbled up a country's resources like China does? The US didn't even take Iraq's oil, even though some still accuse it of "being about oil."

After WWII the US helped Japan rebuild its manufacturing base and took no spoils of war. Thailand declared war against the US in WWII and then England and the US liberated it from the Japanese and took nothing.

China is a crocodile which is in dispute with Japan over islands and several countries over fishing rights in the sea. The US ran China off very recently when it tried to claim fishing rights in the South China Sea which would have hurt Thailand and other SE Asian countries.

Please study your history.

[boomerangutang]

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When it comes to making friends, anti-democratic authoritarian regimes don't have too many choices.

It's China or bust for Prayuth and his cohorts.

Haha yeah I guess his choice of possible friends would be China , North Korea, or

Mynmar. Kind of a rough lot.....

you could add Zimbabwe to that list.

[Thanet]

China and Myanmar dictators are the only people who will talk to Prayuth.

[ggt]

Keep your friends close...Keep your enemies closer...

[NativeSon360]

It's too late to turn back now. Thailand has already fallen "deeply" in love with the PRC

[NativeSon360]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

When it comes to making friends, anti-democratic authoritarian regimes don't have too many choices.

It's China or bust for Prayuth and his cohorts.

Haha yeah I guess his choice of possible friends would be China , North Korea, or

Mynmar. Kind of a rough lot.....

you could add Zimbabwe to that list.

Duh,