Tiger economy loses its roar as Thailand's exports slump

[billd766]

The baht has fallen significantly against the USD this year. Only very low interest rates in the West are holding the baht up at all.

Uopy.jpg

LINK

Here is the KBank exchange rate to the GBP for 2014 up until this morning.

I check it Monday to Friday.

Forex 2014 v1.xls

[richard10365]

Is this story an opinion? I can't tell because no source given for how they conclude exports are down. However, when I look at the Bank of Thailand's website (Click here), overall export trade volume is generally up. I'm more inclined to believe a story if there is a source to back up the claim.

I don't understand what you're saying. According to your link, trade in absolute non-inflation adjusted dollars has been flat since the end of 2011.

Worse, imports almost equal exports barely giving Thailand a positive balance of trade.

I see no growth for almost 3 years. That's the same as going backwards.

Sorry, you're right. I did find a better source which I'll post when I get to my computer.

This chart is better. (Here)

[chainarong]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Maybe it is time to reconsider the flesh eating excuses the monks and everyone else trot out.Methinks Lord Buddha may not be too pleased with Thailand.It is not all about who can build the biggest statue of Buddha.It is about who actually follows the rules of Buddhisn-of which first and foremost is AHIMSA-non-violence,(no animal killing), which edict has really been thrown under the carpet.They even go so far as to say that they didnt kill the animal, they only eat its flesh.It is simply baffling that anyone could come up with such a childish excuse for not following the Buddha.Letting someone else do the dirty work is an art perfected here in Thailand,the other one is the chorus's of "well if you dont like it go home" from the peanut galleries whenever anyone is critical of Thailand in any way.(I will also be amazed if the TV censors do not interpret my comment as unacceptable).I am simply amazed that an entire country feels that they have nothing to learn from anyone

else,sadly another Of L.Buddhas teachings that has somehow been swept under the carpet-the vow of humility and treating all others with respect, since everyone else is our teacher and the truth must be told..

Excellent post that goes straight to the heart of the matter. i ,too, have been a practising Buddhist for many years, snd I love Thailand and her people. However, as a long time resident and employer, I reserve the right to offer my opinion when I feel the country is on a dangerous path, and a Laotian Buddhist aphorism applies:

When the water runs high,
the fish eat the ants;
when the water runs low,
the ants eat the fish.

Have s feeling the water is going to be running very low in LOS soon..

Yinglucks flood mitigation programme should fix that problem .

[tingtongtourist]

Funny that I just read an article on the G20 and when one of the leaders (sorry, been up since 5am and have done the shopping since I read the article!!) mentioned ASEAN countries they mentioned Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Yes the snub of Thailand,i do believe is being led by Australias mr Abbott, who have condemd the members of Thai army and banned them from travel to aus...not that it would bother the Thai.

The most puzzling about this is Aus had no idea how bad things were before the coo. They claim no democracy and seemed to openly support the red shirt. Even news events of the riots painted the red shirt as the poor downtrodden and victim.

I think Australia and any politician either in US or AUS is terrified something like this, people power , , could happen in their own country

especially since one day come when everyone get sick of the bailouts..loose their superannuation to bail out banks and cheats..rich getting richer..big companies pay no tax and give the money as donation to governments...rich people allowed to cut down forest, digging mining all of resources and turning them into $ for rich pockets

At the same time tax everything they possibly can including death tax..they will not be satisfied with taking 30-40% when sell your grandmothers estate,they will soon to introduce a duty/tax when the estate changes hands

[Thailand]

Funny that I just read an article on the G20 and when one of the leaders (sorry, been up since 5am and have done the shopping since I read the article!!) mentioned ASEAN countries they mentioned Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Yes the snub of Thailand,i do believe is being led by Australias mr Abbott, who have condemd the members of Thai army and banned them from travel to aus...not that it would bother the Thai.

The most puzzling about this is Aus had no idea how bad things were before the coo. They claim no democracy and seemed to openly support the red shirt. Even news events of the riots painted the red shirt as the poor downtrodden and victim.

I think Australia and any politician either in US or AUS is terrified something like this, people power , , could happen in their own country

especially since one day come when everyone get sick of the bailouts..loose their superannuation to bail out banks and cheats..rich getting richer..big companies pay no tax and give the money as donation to governments...rich people allowed to cut down forest, digging mining all of resources and turning them into $ for rich pockets

At the same time tax everything they possibly can including death tax..they will not be satisfied with taking 30-40% when sell your grandmothers estate,they will soon to introduce a duty/tax when the estate changes hands

People power?

[useronthenet]

I think the roar has turned into a squeak !

Edited November 17, 2014 by useronthenet

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

Going to accelerate now with Japan's economy slumping and Yen weakening.

Going to force China to weaken the CNY/RMB to stay competitive and that will weigh heavily on the Thai economy and Baht.

Not looking to promising in Asia land right now for the near future.

[emilymat]

Why is the BAHT so strong..I cant work it out. Can some bright guy tell me WHY

Angiolo

I've been trying to figure this out for some time, especially as the UK is 'supposed' to have a fast growing economy etc. - yet the pound falls back again from 55 over the last couple of months.

I'm no economist and I hope someone will pop up and explain to me and you.

I have read that it could be ;

1. Thailand's 'debt' is small compared with western countries etc.

2. The baht can be maintained at an artificial high rate in order to 'save face' and not suggest the economy has problems.

I don't really know the reason. However, I've been here 8 years and seen the pound fall from 72 to 51 (even 46 at times). I realise the recession in the west 2008/2013 was a major factor, but I really thought there would be some recovery.

Someone mentioned very low interest rates in the UK and Europe is a major factor, and I'm sure that is true.

Anyway, I've had enough and moving to Spain next spring. Thailand is no longer cheap and, with a frozen pension and the possibility of the UK Treasury getting their way and removing my UK personal allowance, I'm off.

I'll miss the weather but southern Spain is not too bad.

I also don't like the thought of living under a military government for several more years.

Sorry to be so negative, but a lot of UK (and other Europeans) living on fixed incomes must have similar difficulties.

[Carrerakiss]

I went back to the official dealer to get the number plate for a car I bought in March.

The sales manager told me that they haven't sold a car for two months. The reason being that the tax dept refuse to allow imported cars into the country without very significant checks. He said the tax dept is not differentiating between official dealers and private imports.

So that's tax on the cars unable to be imported not collected, tax on dealer profits not collected and tax on salesman commission not collected. And, a company that has less to spend and sales people who have less to spend thereby causing a ripple effect. Extrapolate that over all imported car dealerships and I imagine its a tidy sum.

Military governments are good when there is someone to shoot at. Run a country? Well take a look no further than Myanmar to see how it works out over the long term. Of course, there are plenty of other examples, none of them good.

[Carrerakiss]

Why is the BAHT so strong..I cant work it out. Can some bright guy tell me WHY

Angiolo

I've been trying to figure this out for some time, especially as the UK is 'supposed' to have a fast growing economy etc. - yet the pound falls back again from 55 over the last couple of months.

I'm no economist and I hope someone will pop up and explain to me and you.

I have read that it could be ;

1. Thailand's 'debt' is small compared with western countries etc.

2. The baht can be maintained at an artificial high rate in order to 'save face' and not suggest the economy has problems.

I don't really know the reason. However, I've been here 8 years and seen the pound fall from 72 to 51 (even 46 at times). I realise the recession in the west 2008/2013 was a major factor, but I really thought there would be some recovery.

Someone mentioned very low interest rates in the UK and Europe is a major factor, and I'm sure that is true.

Anyway, I've had enough and moving to Spain next spring. Thailand is no longer cheap and, with a frozen pension and the possibility of the UK Treasury getting their way and removing my UK personal allowance, I'm off.

I'll miss the weather but southern Spain is not too bad.

I also don't like the thought of living under a military government for several more years.

Sorry to be so negative, but a lot of UK (and other Europeans) living on fixed incomes must have similar difficulties.

My sister has retired to Spain and having spent a few holidays there with her, I think it has a lot going for it. More expensive, but value for money given the infrastructure. You can see where all the EU money has been spent, lol.

Must admit, it's crossed my mind to spend more time there more than once, but the missus is Thai and won't hear of leaving, plus it would be a big wrench for our young daughter. If I was on my lonesome, I'd probably try it for a while and see how it goes.

So good luck, an understandable decision.

[brucec64]

The cost of the coup and anti-government protests to the nation will be about 3.5% of GDP growth or equivalent Bt.50-70 billion through 2015, equalling the total wealth of the Crown. Time does not favor a continued military government from an economic viewpoint.

It is worse than that. GDP is about 374Billion USD - 3.5% is ~13 Billion USD or 420 billion baht. This is roughly the loss amount of the rice subsidy over three years, but I don't expect the current government will face impeachment for this economic

mismanagement.

[Time Traveller]

obsolete technology, obsolete foreign investment laws, obsolete political leadership, obsolete education, obsolete thinking....yes Thailand has a glorious future.

[ourmanflint]

Having just returned from Bangkok after and 18 month break, I was amazed to see the Thai reaction to falling consumer and buyer numbers. They have all put the prices up and made it much harder to get discounts. Must be something in Thai Business 101 about how to react to falling sales.

Edited November 17, 2014 by ourmanflint

[tingtongtourist]

Funny that I just read an article on the G20 and when one of the leaders (sorry, been up since 5am and have done the shopping since I read the article!!) mentioned ASEAN countries they mentioned Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Yes the snub of Thailand,i do believe is being led by Australias mr Abbott, who have condemd the members of Thai army and banned them from travel to aus...not that it would bother the Thai.

The most puzzling about this is Aus had no idea how bad things were before the coo. They claim no democracy and seemed to openly support the red shirt. Even news events of the riots painted the red shirt as the poor downtrodden and victim.

I think Australia and any politician either in US or AUS is terrified something like this, people power , , could happen in their own country

especially since one day come when everyone get sick of the bailouts..loose their superannuation to bail out banks and cheats..rich getting richer..big companies pay no tax and give the money as donation to governments...rich people allowed to cut down forest, digging mining all of resources and turning them into $ for rich pockets

At the same time tax everything they possibly can including death tax..they will not be satisfied with taking 30-40% when sell your grandmothers estate,they will soon to introduce a duty/tax when the estate changes hands

People power?

I use that term because really it was the people actions that cause this. Riots and people in numbers shutting down government offices,airport ect and hence hurting the economy and in the end,worry about a civil war.

if people did not get out in numbers in protest it would still be the status quo

but the poor have nothing to loose. Always poor and always will be, what the care if they shut the country down

get like this in a lot of countries where there is uprisings

can only keep them down for so long

[wow64]

Should try and be an Asean Hub. Maybe a hub for the 2017 Asean Economic Crisis.

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

^^ now that is a hub Thailand could pull off

[SteveFong]

Vietnam is the New China,

This weeks Barrons had full spread on the Nw China,

They mentioned Thailand sparingly, as the largest exporter of the zone,

but the latest numbers show, they have been slipping,

Barrons left that out

[bartobar]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Is this story an opinion? I can't tell because no source given for how they conclude exports are down. However, when I look at the Bank of Thailand's website (Click here), overall export trade volume is generally up. I'm more inclined to believe a story if there is a source to back up the claim.

Over expectation . We shouldn't be blind by the malls in bkk. Th is a ldc. He can't give more than what he learned at uni . Quality of ed. low ? Don't know.

No story in Thai press is predicated on fact. It's always hearsay, second hand, and someone puffing and blustering out sound bites. Thai journalists never ask questions, never corroborate, never validate, and never investigate. It's the "No-Gate" press if ever there was one.

[Thai at Heart]

Thailand still has some dry powder.

FBA reform,.allow foreigner to enter restricted business and own their own business.

To achieve that they need the agreement of CP, Central, the rubber, sugar and rice barons. .you reckon they will say yes?

[Cake Monster]

IMHO, the country is in recession, and has been now for the last six months, and only the " spin " has stopped the truth thus far coming out.

A large economy like China,s can have corners to hide there mistakes, and can issue bad data that has people guessing.

Unfortunetly Thailand, s economy is not in the same league, so there are no corneres to hide in, and bad data is critically looked over.

All the published data over the last several months has been very poor, and yet the SET remains high without any base metrics to support the reasoning behind this.

A big crash is coming, when the profit is taken out of the SET

[theguyfromanotherforum]

Where does all the capital for numerous condos being built in Bangkok come from?

I understand that there needs to be 80% of contracts signed during presales for something to be built.

The economy surely can't be that bad.