Philippines economy slows sharply. A bad omen for Thailand?

[Asiantravel]

Growth in the Philippine economy slowed sharply in the third quarter due to weaker growth in all sectors, the government said.

The economy grew by 5.3% from July to September from a year ago, well below market expectations of a 6.6% rise.

That compared to 6.4% growth in the previous three months from a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30221775

[Pib]

Probably not. The Philippines, like Thailand, does a lot of self-inflicted damage to its economy due to an unstable political environment, corruption, civil unrest in parts of the country, etc.

[slipperylobster]

Love/hate relationship with the American Military. Frequent political chaos, major unemployment problems, Terrorism, pandemic crime (without consequences), horribly violent Acts of Nature (volcanoes, earthquakes, typhoons, floods), transportation terrorism (overloaded ferries) , scams etc,.....

Nobody should be surprised of sharp downswings in their economy. Self evident.

Just be happy you are in Thailand. I survived 18 years in the PI..... I am now loving Thailand. Bringing my 90 year old mom to enjoy.

Edited November 28, 2014 by slipperylobster

[trianglechoke]

the EU problems are slowly creeping in to ASEAN

[trianglechoke]

EU problems slowly creeping in to ASEAN

[asdecas]

EU problems slowly creeping in to ASEAN

What?

[asdecas]

Not sure why the OP conflates the economies of Thailand and the Philippines. Beyond both being heavily export-dependent, in the details they are two very different animals. Just look at the demographic curve of each country, the figures for inward investment, the employment statistics and the number of jobs being created.

[bushwacker]

I am scratching my head .... what is wrong with a 5.3% increase in growth?

[sloperating]

I am scratching my head .... what is wrong with a 5.3% increase in growth?

Agreed. Most developed economies would be tickled pink with far more modest growth.

[MauiSteveBKK]

They're too dependent on U.S. military, which has been slowly shifting resources to other areas, and back to the Hawaiian islands here. Unless they can learn to fly a drone ...... The Philippines will see a continual withdrawal of U.S. foot troops. Guam same.

[Pib]

Subic Bay Naval Base, Clark AB and other smaller U.S. military installations have not had any significant U.S. military presence for around a decade...only occasional small military exercises or ship visits for around a decade now. You must be thinking of days past. Guam and Hawaii gains are primarily due to relocation/downsizing of some forces in Japan and South Korea, and the U.S. pivot from Europe to Asia.

Edited November 28, 2014 by Pib

[kblaze]

not worrying. Thailand's recent quarterly growth @ around 1% is.

[kevin2852]

The issue is that the growth was below the expected rate, that hints to the world that there are problems ( Hiyan etc. ) and shoots investment down. If they had predicted 5% growth and passed it, life would be completely happy

[smotherb]

Love/hate relationship with the American Military. Frequent political chaos, major unemployment problems, Terrorism, pandemic crime (without consequences), horribly violent Acts of Nature (volcanoes, earthquakes, typhoons, floods), transportation terrorism (overloaded ferries) , scams etc,.....

Nobody should be surprised of sharp downswings in their economy. Self evident.

Just be happy you are in Thailand. I survived 18 years in the PI..... I am now loving Thailand. Bringing my 90 year old mom to enjoy.

Yes, have to agree. The PI makes Thailand look like a progressive role model in terms of thievery and corruption. A basic reason is the greater disparity between the haves and have-nots in the PI.

[Benmart]

Love/hate relationship with the American Military. Frequent political chaos, major unemployment problems, Terrorism, pandemic crime (without consequences), horribly violent Acts of Nature (volcanoes, earthquakes, typhoons, floods), transportation terrorism (overloaded ferries) , scams etc,.....

Nobody should be surprised of sharp downswings in their economy. Self evident.

Just be happy you are in Thailand. I survived 18 years in the PI..... I am now loving Thailand. Bringing my 90 year old mom to enjoy.

Glad to hear that you and your Mother will be spending time together. Truely a wonderful and cherished time.

Best wishes.

[konying]

They're too dependent on U.S. military, which has been slowly shifting resources to other areas, and back to the Hawaiian islands here. Unless they can learn to fly a drone ...... The Philippines will see a continual withdrawal of U.S. foot troops. Guam same.

Did not US close down its base years ago?

[rickirs]

The Philippines economy is likely to improve with the RETURN OF US ARMED FORCES to counter Chinese beligerance towards its neighbors adjoining the China Sea and Philippines' eventual extraction of natural resources from its stake in the China Sea.

"The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, signed by President Barack Obama during a state visit in April [2014], allows U.S. forces and contractors to operate at agreed locations in the Philippines for at least 10 years. The agreement stipulates that the U.S. can’t set up permanent bases — the revised Philippine constitution bans that — but it hands over operational control of the locations to U.S. forces and allows them to stockpile defense equipment and supplies.

Philippine government officials have said three to five bases are being considered, initially, as hosts for the U.S. forces."

http://www.stripes.com/news/us-military-s-return-to-the-philippines-sparks-economic-hopes-1.298937

HAVING RESOLVED ITS 40-YEAR MUSLIM INSURGENCY in 2013, The Philipines has become a more stable democracy and can redirect costs for that expensive conflict back towards improving its infrastructure. The economic growth of the Philipines in the last 110 years has been on par with Indoneasia to such an extent some investors call The Philippines the "New Indonesia."

Meanwhile Thailand strangles itself under a Junta-controlled government, cannot resolve its Muslim conflict, and distances its once-economic allies with an anti-democractic government attitude and shift of trade towards anti-western economies. Bad omens of its own making are indeed threatening Thailand as a major economic power.

[VegasVic]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

EU problems slowly creeping in to ASEAN

You have the right idea, however I think that the bubble begining to burst in the Chinese real estate market is a bigger problem for ASEAN nations, and the slowdown in mainland China is beginning to have serious repercussions not only in S.E. Asia, but in Brazil and Australia as well. As far as Thailand goes, the THB will need to begin to weaken in order for the exporters to not take a serious hit over the next 12-18 months As bad as the economic situation is in the E.U. it will likely pale to the slowdown that has already begun in China, and Japan is the 800 pound gorilla in the room that nobody wants to talk about Japan has an astronomical debt to GDP ratio, an insidious and growing demographic problem and very few natural resources within its own country. I have seen two different reports over the past week that see the Yen going to 200 vs. the U.S. Dollar over the next 12 months

[VegasVic]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

They're too dependent on U.S. military, which has been slowly shifting resources to other areas, and back to the Hawaiian islands here. Unless they can learn to fly a drone ...... The Philippines will see a continual withdrawal of U.S. foot troops. Guam same.

Did not US close down its base years ago?

They did indeed, back in the early 1990's at the request of the Philipino government and the Philipino economy has been suffering ever since Guam on the other hand is a U.S. territory and the bases there are still open despite Obamas attepting to close them

[Pib]

Guam on the other hand is a U.S. territory and the bases there are still open despite Obamas attepting to close them

Lay off the FoxNews and Rush Limbaugh.

[VegasVic]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Guam on the other hand is a U.S. territory and the bases there are still open despite Obamas attepting to close them alt=thumbsup.gif>

Lay off the FoxNews and Rush Limbaugh.

I'm not sure what fox news or rush limbaugh has to do with the obama administration wanting to close U.S. military installations down in Guam, but if it makes you feel better keep up the attack on fox and rush, and by all means keep on drinking that koolaid

[Pib]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Guam on the other hand is a U.S. territory and the bases there are still open despite Obamas attepting to close them alt=thumbsup.gif>

Lay off the FoxNews and Rush Limbaugh.

I'm not sure what fox news or rush limbaugh has to do with the obama administration wanting to close U.S. military installations down in Guam, but if it makes you feel better keep up the attack on fox and rush, and by all means keep on drinking that koolaid

Don't know what the 2015 Dept of Defense budget has planned for Gaum since the budget hasn't passed Congress yet, but the 2014 DOD budget was good, very good, to Guam to the tune of almost a half billion dollars ($495M) for its continued expansion. And it mentions some previous Obama years, like 2010 when the spending was even higher at $700M with some big construction projects kicking off. To say Obama is trying to close bases on Gaum while spending so much on them is definitely a political point of view...a FoxNews type of view where most anything related to the Democrat Party or Obama is evil, bad, etc. Once thing for sure, bases in the Pacific on U.S. soil like Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam will continue to be funded at very comfortable levels and each will no doubt continue to slowly grow as forces are relocated/pulled back from Japan and South Korea.

http://www.guampdn.com/article/20131228/NEWS01/312280005/-495-million-Guam-Obama-signs-defense-spending-bill

$495 million for Guam: Obama signs defense spending bill

12:46 PM, Dec. 28, 2013

Andersen AFB: Air Force projects, some of which are slated for Andersen Air Force Base, exceed $176 million in the recently approved 2014 National Defense Authorization Act. The total military construction spending on Guam in the act is about $495 million.

President Barack Obama yesterday signed a defense bill which includes almost $495 million in spending for military construction projects on Guam. The defense bill's allocation for the island is the second-highest military construction funding for Guam since fiscal 2010, when $700 million was approved. Obama signed the bill and a bipartisan budget deal Thursday...