Baht to go up or down against gbp

[meatboy]

Exchange rates futures predict B32/$1 B53/GBP1 more or less flat at least until end 2016.

dont forget the op.wants the rate times 1gbp.to go down as i would gess he only had less than 49 to the gbp.in the first place,unless its income he's earned here.

[Jasun]

It's easier to consider if the pound will strengthen against the USD? I don't think that's super likely. So don't wait around waiting for the baht to do the opposite. It can't happen.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[bitcoinbob]

largest foreign investor in Thailand are the Japanese . the yen is positivity correlated to the thai baht. yen has drop from 78 to 120 and baht has not moved. baht will drop get weaker soon has to every other currency in asia has been falling YEN,WON,even RMB has gotten weaker. just a matter of time look at the euro us to be 1.60 to dollar now 1.24 on its way to .75. it takes a while but will happen 42 baht to dollar if not more

[freebyrd]

It beats me how anyone ever knows. 6 months ago, the 'general feeling' was that the pound to dollar would be 1 to 2 and higher by now. It was 1 to 1.56 at lunchtime today. Who could have predicted that oil would take such a tumble these past few months?

If there is a way to reliably predict exactly how currencies will perform, I would like to know how as a few extra quid always comes in handy.

[Ebenezer]

No-one can say for sure (or they would be a multi millionaire) but my view is that there will not be any significant change in the short term but that approaching and following the UK election in May 2015 sterling is likely to weaken because of political uncertainty in the UK - yes, worse than is likely in Thailand as long as the King is alive. This is on the basis that there is likely to be no party with a majority so there could be a minority government or a coaltion that may need 3 parties next time.

Also the UK deficit and current account deficit are both ticking time-bombs that are waiting to detonate. As long as the economic growth (currently a respectable 3.1%) does not result in increased government receipts the deficit is going to be an uphill struggle for the next UK government.

[Naam]

largest foreign investor in Thailand are the Japanese . the yen is positivity correlated to the thai baht. yen has drop from 78 to 120 and baht has not moved. baht will drop get weaker soon has to every other currency in asia has been falling YEN,WON,even RMB has gotten weaker. just a matter of time look at the euro us to be 1.60 to dollar now 1.24 on its way to .75. it takes a while but will happen 42 baht to dollar if not more

the yen is positivity correlated to the thai baht.

[MrWorldwide]

Just for those who are convinced that the coup must inevitably drag the baht down, ask yourself this - would you be happier if Yingluck was still running the country ? I wouldnt - that circus was untenable. Whatever you think of the General, he doesnt strike me as a stupid man - he knows that he will eventually have to hold the promised elections or run the risk of being seen as the tyrant some here seem to believe he is.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/15/us-thailand-politics-idUSKCN0I40YJ20141015

2015 looms as a very interesting year on several fronts and it will be interesting to see where those graphs end up 12 months from now.

[dirtycash]

Good answer anthony what are you even doing on this thread ?

If you can't take some Flak,, T<>F> are you putting up an stupid question like that????

If we knew the answer to your stupid question we all would be Millionaires.Why are you Bullshitting about the 3.3 Mill in the bank,we don't care about that.

A**holes like you dont belong here either if you cannot contribute to it. Sad people

[Strangebrew]

The way the pound is taking a pounding from USD I think you should convert to US dollars and wait.

[dirtycash]

Good answer anthony what are you even doing on this thread ?

If you can't take some Flak,, T<>F> are you putting up an stupid question like that????

If we knew the answer to your stupid question we all would be Millionaires.Why are you Bullshitting about the 3.3 Mill in the bank,we don't care about that.

A**holes like you dont belong here either if you cannot contribute to it. Sad people

if you consider i have 3.3 m in kasikorn and 4m in krungsi and a few more quid waiting to be either sent over or spent here in uk depending on markets then yes i think i have posted a very valid question a********e.

[sandyf]

Can't see the Baht doing better with a Militaryt Junta in charge.

Usually their currencies are on a one way trip to hell.

if you can't see that this is not the case you need glasses and check what the Baht has done during the military coup that started sept 2006, Baht gained up to 34% vs. GBP during that period!

THB GBP coup.jpg

Nothing to do with the baht. Look at the GBP against the USD over the same period. The dollar index has topped 89, the highest it has been for years and the pound has suffered.

It is all to do with the US manipulating the markets to put the sqeeze on Russia, but it cannot continue for very long. The US tends to ignore collateral damage but I can see pressure coming shortly. There should be some decline in the dollar by Easter.

[sandyf]

The way the pound is taking a pounding from USD I think you should convert to US dollars and wait.

Good advice a couple of months ago but I think the ship has sailed. What goes up usually comes down.

[Anthony5]

Good answer anthony what are you even doing on this thread ?

If you can't take some Flak,, T<>F> are you putting up an stupid question like that????

If we knew the answer to your stupid question we all would be Millionaires.Why are you Bullshitting about the 3.3 Mill in the bank,we don't care about that.

A**holes like you dont belong here either if you cannot contribute to it. Sad people

if you consider i have 3.3 m in kasikorn and 4m in krungsi and a few more quid waiting to be either sent over or spent here in uk depending on markets then yes i think i have posted a very valid question a********e.

Such a rich man and looking for rooms for 800 Baht

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/777570-where-are-decent-rooms-in-pattaya-now-for-around-800-per-night/

[sustento]

"Baht to go up or down against gbp" - YES!

[Anthony5]

largest foreign investor in Thailand are the Japanese . the yen is positivity correlated to the thai baht. yen has drop from 78 to 120 and baht has not moved. baht will drop get weaker soon has to every other currency in asia has been falling YEN,WON,even RMB has gotten weaker. just a matter of time look at the euro us to be 1.60 to dollar now 1.24 on its way to .75. it takes a while but will happen 42 baht to dollar if not more

the yen is positivity correlated to the thai baht.

thb jpy.jpg

Is it just to sound interesting that you missed the point, as he clearly wanted to say that the Baht hasn't moved against the Dollar.

[Naam]

largest foreign investor in Thailand are the Japanese . the yen is positivity correlated to the thai baht. yen has drop from 78 to 120 and baht has not moved. baht will drop get weaker soon has to every other currency in asia has been falling YEN,WON,even RMB has gotten weaker. just a matter of time look at the euro us to be 1.60 to dollar now 1.24 on its way to .75. it takes a while but will happen 42 baht to dollar if not more

the yen is positivity correlated to the thai baht.

thb jpy.jpg

Is it just to sound interesting that you missed the point, as he clearly wanted to say that the Baht hasn't moved against the Dollar.

yeah right! he wrote ¥EN but meant Dollar. assuming he meant US-Dollar let's take a look at USDTHB and its "non-movements".

waiting impatiently for the next ridiculous comment from you, e.g. "when you write €UR you actually mean cowrie shells"

[Anthony5]

Is it just to sound interesting that you missed the point, as he clearly wanted to say that the Baht hasn't moved against the Dollar.

yeah right! he wrote ¥EN but meant Dollar. assuming he meant US-Dollar let's take a look at USDTHB and its "non-movements".

waiting impatiently for the next ridiculous comment from you, e.g. "when you write €UR you actually mean cowrie shells"

What I read is the following.

yen has drop from 78 to 120 and baht has not moved. baht will drop get weaker soon has to every other currency in asia has been falling YEN,WON,even RMB has gotten weaker.

So has the yen dropped to 120 against the Dollar or Baht? Have all the other currency's been falling against the Dollar or the Baht?

I also suspect that he wasn't talking about movements between 1998 and 2014, but only about the last 6 months, at least that is clear to me when I comprehend the figures he note in his post.

Of course YMMV, as usual.

[BritManToo]

Draw a line of best fit on that graph, and the value of the Baht has been steadily falling.

[OnMyWay2]

The baht will be falling against the USD. This new trend has only just begun as the US fed starts to raise rates off zero.

It should also fall against the gbp but europe is a bit of a basket case so it's hard to say.

The rise in Asian currencies over the past 10 years was a bit of an anomaly because China was creating artifical demand. That trend has also reversed so there should be downward pressure for some time.

baht will need to fall if they expect to compete on exports with other falling Asian currencies.

Edited December 7, 2014 by OnMyWay2

[Pib]

Well, if you only want to look at the last year and half or so, then yes the baht has falling against the dollar.

But draw the trend line starting from around 2001 the baht has be appreciating against the dollar...or if you prefer, the dollar falling against the baht.

[Naam]

Draw a line of best fit on that graph, and the value of the Baht has been steadily falling.

are you for real dear Sir? you call the strengthening of the Baht vs. USD from 55 (in january 1998) to presently 33 "steadily falling"?

[BritManToo]

Draw a line of best fit on that graph, and the value of the Baht has been steadily falling.

are you for real dear Sir? you call the strengthening of the Baht vs. USD from 55 (in january 1998) to presently 33 "steadily falling"?

Your chart starts in 1997 at 25bht to 1USD.

[Naam]

Is it just to sound interesting that you missed the point, as he clearly wanted to say that the Baht hasn't moved against the Dollar.

yeah right! he wrote ¥EN but meant Dollar. assuming he meant US-Dollar let's take a look at USDTHB and its "non-movements".

waiting impatiently for the next ridiculous comment from you, e.g. "when you write €UR you actually mean cowrie shells"

What I read is the following.

yen has drop from 78 to 120 and baht has not moved. baht will drop get weaker soon has to every other currency in asia has been falling YEN,WON,even RMB has gotten weaker.

So has the yen dropped to 120 against the Dollar or Baht? Have all the other currency's been falling against the Dollar or the Baht?

I also suspect that he wasn't talking about movements between 1998 and 2014, but only about the last 6 months, at least that is clear to me when I comprehend the figures he note in his post.

Of course YMMV, as usual.

what you suspect is irrelevant because BritManToo's latest comment on the USDTHB graph i posted speaks volumes:

Draw a line of best fit on that graph, and the value of the Baht has been steadily falling.

[Naam]

they walk among us!

[OnMyWay2]

Well, if you only want to look at the last year and half or so, then yes the baht has falling against the dollar.

But draw the trend line starting from around 2001 the baht has be appreciating against the dollar...or if you prefer, the dollar falling against the baht.

But what changed in the last 2 years to cause the trend to reverse? It may not retrace all of the decline since 2001 but much of it was due to factors that are now reversing.

[OnMyWay2]

Unfortunately I'm very bearish on the baht just from what I've been reading I think a lot of the strength was tied to growth out of China which doesn't look to pick up again soon.

I say unfortunately because I have other investments tied to China growth story.

The RMB is supposed to be allowed to float but it will probably fall instead of rise. During this time I could see the baht going back to 40/usd.

Take a look at this article.

Sorry wrong article this is the one

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2014/03/22/mauldin-chinas-minsky-moment/3/

Edited December 7, 2014 by OnMyWay2

[Pib]

Well, if you only want to look at the last year and half or so, then yes the baht has falling against the dollar.

But draw the trend line starting from around 2001 the baht has be appreciating against the dollar...or if you prefer, the dollar falling against the baht.

But what changed in the last 2 years to cause the trend to reverse? It may not retrace all of the decline since 2001 but much of it was due to factors that are now reversing.

Dollar strength (against most currencies) and Thailand transitory political stability problem versus fundamental baht weakness is probably the main drivers according my crystal ball made in China.

In looking at the history of the baht to dollar exchange value a person needs to understand that after WWII the baht was pegged to the dollar at 20.8 to 1, then to 20 to 1 up until 1978 and then 25 to 1 in 1984. As a young guy in the U.S. military stationed in Thailand in the early 70's I experienced that approx 20 baht to 1 USD exchange rate...sure seems like those 20 baht days bought a lot more than 32 baht does know days....well, of course it does due to inflation over 4 decades. Then the baht went off the peg to the dollar and just floated, then the financial crisis of 1997 that caused the baht value to depreciate greatly as shown with that huge late 1997 spike on the chart. If a person wants to start their long trend line from that 1997 point the baht has been gaining strength since with some short term (a few years) ups and downs.

Now will the baht continue to appreciate against the dollar over the long term like it has since 1997/1998? Heck, I don't know. A person can't go back in history too far to start their trend line because their are major events that completely change the rules, move the goal posts, etc., regarding the exchange rate between two currencies. Like the recent/ongoing pretty much worldwide financial crisis, quantitative easing by some countries that a lot of countries are still struggling with in terms of high unemployment, high budget deficits, deflation in some countries, etc.

Up to each individual where they want to start their historical, long term trend line but in today's modern world I don't think I would want to look too far back into history. And of course each person needs to define what they mean by "long" term...to some it may mean a decade, to some a few years, and to some like FX traders only a few months.

[sandyf]

The RMB is supposed to be allowed to float but it will probably fall instead of rise. During this time I could see the baht going back to 40/usd.

Take a look at this article.

Sorry wrong article this is the one

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2014/03/22/mauldin-chinas-minsky-moment/3/

RMB is not a currency as such, it is like the GBP being sterling. China has 2 currencies, the onshore Yuan CNY and the offshore Yuan CNH.

CNY is the national currency and is a partially convertible currency so cannot be on a floating exchange rate. The CNH is a pseudo currency based on the CNY and fully convertible on the Hong Kong foreign exchange. The CNH floats to a certain extent within a range set by the PBOC.

[OnMyWay2]

The RMB is supposed to be allowed to float but it will probably fall instead of rise. During this time I could see the baht going back to 40/usd.

Take a look at this article.

Sorry wrong article this is the one

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2014/03/22/mauldin-chinas-minsky-moment/3/

RMB is not a currency as such, it is like the GBP being sterling. China has 2 currencies, the onshore Yuan CNY and the offshore Yuan CNH.

CNY is the national currency and is a partially convertible currency so cannot be on a floating exchange rate. The CNH is a pseudo currency based on the CNY and fully convertible on the Hong Kong foreign exchange. The CNH floats to a certain extent within a range set by the PBOC.

RMB is just the name of the Chinese currency as they refer to it in mainland China. The currency is said to eventually be allowed to free float. As mentioned in the article above, as they do widen the band the direction will be down not up.

From wiki:

Since 2006, the renminbi exchange rate has been allowed to float in a narrow margin around a fixed base rate determined with reference to a basket of world currencies. The Chinese government has announced that it will gradually increase the flexibility of the exchange rate.

As of 2013, the renminbi is convertible on current accounts but not capital accounts. The ultimate goal has been to make the RMB fully convertible. However, partly in response to the Asian financial crisis in 1998, China has been concerned that the mainland Chinese financial system would not be able to handle the potential rapid cross-border movements of hot money, and as a result, as of 2012, the currency trades within a narrow band specified by the Chinese central government.

Edited December 7, 2014 by OnMyWay2

[NeverSure]

if you consider i have 3.3 m in kasikorn and 4m in krungsi and a few more quid waiting to be either sent over or spent here in uk depending on markets then yes i think i have posted a very valid question a********e.

Now. I rarely see anyone post actual numbers but when I do I believe he's attempting to boast.

Son, you'll have to come up with a lot bigger numbers than that to impress some of us here.