SET plunges to 6-month low

[webfact]

SET plunges to 6-month low
The Nation, AFP



BANGKOK: -- Thai shares plummeted by more than 3 per cent on Monday, in line with regional movements as oil remained near five-year lows.

The slide in Asian markets comes after crashing oil prices dragged US stocks to one of their worst losses of the year on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.79 per cent and the S&P 500 tumbled 1.62 per cent. It was the S&P 500’s first weekly loss in nearly two months and its worst single-week decline - 3.5 per cent - since May 2012.

Lower oil prices benefit consumers, but traders have been unnerved by the speed of the freefall in crude prices, which could put projects on hold in the oil sector and hurt energy companies and banks.

In Thailand, the banking and energy sectors constitute more than one fourth of the exchange’s market capitalisation.

At 2.33pm, the SET index lost 54.79 points or 3.62 per cent, to 1,460.16 points. It was last seen below 1,460 in June. On June 12, the index stood at 1,457 points.

In the past five trading days, the index has lost 8.23 per cent. It is well below the expected 2015 price-earning ratio. Suffering the most were stocks in the energy, communications, banking, retail, property and food sectors.

"LTF and window dressing are now the last hopes," said Asia Plus Securities in its research note. "The market slump should encourage more investment into LTF and window dressing at the end of the year should also be more active. In eight of the past 10 years, SET index gained average 2.6 per cent in the past two weeks of the year."

Technically, the index can dive further to 1,438 points, the securities house said.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/SET-plunges-to-6-month-low-30249864.html


-- The Nation 2014-12-15

[george]

Thailand’s Shares Drop Most in 11 Months as Energy Stocks Tumble
By Harry Suhartono and Suttinee Yuvejwattana

BANGKOK: -- Thailand’s benchmark stock index headed for its biggest loss in 11 months as energy companies slumped on a rout in crude and investors speculated this year’s rally was excessive relative to earnings prospects.

The SET Index fell 3 percent to 1,470.21 at the midday break in Bangkok, taking its five-day loss to 8 percent, the most since October 2011. PTT Exploration & Production Pcl (PTTEP) dropped for a seventh straight day, while its parent PTT Pcl (PTT), Thailand’s biggest energy company, tumbled 3 percent. The two stocks represent about 10 percent of the SET Index by weighting.

“Thai stocks have been hit by foreign selling as investors pull out from emerging markets,” said Mixo Das, an Asia ex-Japan equity strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Singapore. “A large listed oil-and-gas sector and expensive valuations relative to history are adding more pressure.”

Brent crude traded near $60 a barrel in London after the United Arab Emirates said OPEC will refrain from cutting output even if prices slumped to as low as $40. PTT, PTT Exploration and PTT Global Chemical Pcl account for a quarter of the SET’s 124 point decline in the five days. The SET Index (SET) is still up 13 percent this year and trades at 2.1 times net assets, compared with 1.4 times for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

The head of the Thai bourse said no measures were needed to shore up stocks and investors shouldn’t panic.

“We will need to monitor the market closely, but I don’t think we need any measures yet,” Kesara Manchusree, president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, told reporters today in Bangkok. “I believe most companies will benefit from lower oil prices. This should also help the economy to grow without inflationary pressure next year.”

Emerging Outflows

The selloff came as some investors who had bought stocks on margin are being forced to unwind positions, said Teerawut Kanniphakul, the Bangkok-based deputy head of retail research at CIMB Securities (Thailand) Co.

Investors withdrew more than $2.5 billion from U.S. exchange-traded funds that buy emerging-market stocks and bonds last week, the biggest outflow since January, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 0.5 percent today in a seventh day of declines.

-- Bloomberg 2014-12-16

[wordchild]

Down close to 9% right now, big move since lunch, all sorts of rumours (not repeatable) going round!

[wordchild]

had a mjor bounce back in the last couple of minutes, only down 5% now, quite a day!

[ezzra]

'Lower oil prices benefit consumers, but traders have been unnerved by the speed of the freefall in crude prices, which could put projects on hold in the oil sector and hurt energy companies and banks.'

How about a drop in airfares and fuel surcharges? while fuel for motoring has dropped by 25%

airfares and fuel surcharges remain the same, why is it that airfare consumers are the first to be

hit with fuel price rise and last to be benefitted when oil price dropped?

[Estrada]

SET stopped trading early at 15.49hrs as it just could not cope with the volume of trade whether buy or sell. A lot of the crash to 7.5% appears to have been because the shear volume of trade prevented buyers buying stocks. It was taking up to 5 minutes for a buy order to get through when it should take a second or two. They should have stopped trading this morning as soon as it was obvious that the electronic trading system was malfunctioning.

[rafish]

Far to much uncertainty within Thailand as to direction. Overt interest in control of the future, bogus economic figures, and irrational plans by the current Parliment all add to dropping markets. Oil price is over done as an excuse these days. No v alue to be found in todays emerging markets. Like years ago, strictly for suckers...selling short won't save them.

[masuk]

'Lower oil prices benefit consumers, but traders have been unnerved by the speed of the freefall in crude prices, which could put projects on hold in the oil sector and hurt energy companies and banks.'

How about a drop in airfares and fuel surcharges? while fuel for motoring has dropped by 25%

airfares and fuel surcharges remain the same, why is it that airfare consumers are the first to be

hit with fuel price rise and last to be benefitted when oil price dropped?

Agreed! I'm not making any bookings until the incredible fuel surcharge is removed or drastically removed. AirAsia are tacking on $74.00 each way from CNX to the Gold Coast.

[asdecas]

Perhaps a major national event is imminent, or rumoured to be.

Edited December 15, 2014 by asdecas

[DennisF]

Perhaps a major national event is imminent, or rumoured to be.

I concur.

[Jip99]

Heaven only knows what the drop would be when that happens.

[needforspeed]

SET stopped trading early at 15.49hrs as it just could not cope with the volume of trade whether buy or sell. A lot of the crash to 7.5% appears to have been because the shear volume of trade prevented buyers buying stocks. It was taking up to 5 minutes for a buy order to get through when it should take a second or two. They should have stopped trading this morning as soon as it was obvious that the electronic trading system was malfunctioning.

Incorrect pre-closed at 16:30 and closed at 17:00.

Also should be your provider or broker as with Tisco trade no issues all day.

If you are a trader i suggest to look into differend provider, if need any information PM me.

Succes tomorrow as it going to be another busy day.

[asdecas]

Close at -2.41% after earlier plunging more that 8%.

This will be the pattern of trade again and again as long as certain issues are unresolved.

[Robert24]

only rumour driven as by what ascendas mentioned. I suspect the market will rebound as nothing will happen.

[wabothai]

A major national event, what are you talking about.

[kotsak]

Heaven only knows what the drop would be when that happens.

Most likely a major lockdown, suspension of trade and internet shutdown to name a few.

[kalbo123]

roller coaster today!

wonder why?

[craigt3365]

Please be careful posting unsubstantiated rumors or speculations.

[fletchsmile]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Down close to 9% right now, big move since lunch, all sorts of rumours (not repeatable) going round!

had a mjor bounce back in the last couple of minutes, only down 5% now, quite a day!

SET stopped trading early at 15.49hrs as it just could not cope with the volume of trade whether buy or sell. A lot of the crash to 7.5% appears to have been because the shear volume of trade prevented buyers buying stocks. It was taking up to 5 minutes for a buy order to get through when it should take a second or two. They should have stopped trading this morning as soon as it was obvious that the electronic trading system was malfunctioning.

Will be interesting to see what explanation they come up with.

I couldn't see the bid-offer spreads on all the SET50 option contracts, only the settled prices, coming up.

There was something fundamentally wrong also on the SET50 futures. I was seeing December settled futures deals for around 40 points lower than the actual index!!! Trades were going through in the 870's but the SET50 index was showing 910's. Hard to know which one was real!!!

My trading screen shows the lowest S50Z14 contract at 874 and yet the SET50 index lowest was 912.67. Ultimately the SET50 rebounded to 989 down only 18, but the intraday swing was around 10%.

Surely if they suspend the main index they should suspend the TFEX at the same time?

Also they are supposed to have open 2 out of the money strikes, 2 in the money strikes and 1 at the money strike on options. The lowest SET50 contract open is @ 950.

Don't understand why 925 level didn't open as the index crashed thru that, and probably 900 should have opened too

In terms of volumes, SET50 futures were more today than in the week before last in total!

All in all seems a balls up on many levels.

Cheers

Fletch

Edited December 15, 2014 by fletchsmile

[jamiesilver]

When everyone is running to the hills screaming fire - Invest!

[Neeranam]

Will this affect gold prices?

Should I sell or hold on?

[elgordo38]

Far to much uncertainty within Thailand as to direction. Overt interest in control of the future, bogus economic figures, and irrational plans by the current Parliment all add to dropping markets. Oil price is over done as an excuse these days. No v alue to be found in todays emerging markets. Like years ago, strictly for suckers...selling short won't save them.

Please do not panic the government has assured us the SET would hit 1600 for sure by the end of 2015 so mark your calendars.

[inwardglee]

All indices are in correction mode since some days, and I expect the correction to take longer, into early next year.

Today's SET dropped by multiple stop loss orders, yet I consider the decisive rebound as strength in the bullish field.

Personally, I believe that we are internationally not at the bottom yet. We can correct another 8 percent before the bulls take over again ... as at the moment the bear is reigning.

[fletchsmile]

SET stopped trading early at 15.49hrs as it just could not cope with the volume of trade whether buy or sell. A lot of the crash to 7.5% appears to have been because the shear volume of trade prevented buyers buying stocks. It was taking up to 5 minutes for a buy order to get through when it should take a second or two. They should have stopped trading this morning as soon as it was obvious that the electronic trading system was malfunctioning.

Incorrect pre-closed at 16:30 and closed at 17:00.

Also should be your provider or broker as with Tisco trade no issues all day.

If you are a trader i suggest to look into differend provider, if need any information PM me.

Succes tomorrow as it going to be another busy day.

The official first circuit breaker on the SET is a fall of 10% from the previous day's close, and lasts 30 minutes only. By my calcs given the previous close @ 1514.. and lowest point today 1375.. that's about 9.2% drop so the official circuit breaker shouldn't have kicked in, and I don't think it did.

However, there were definitely issues with systems.

Might also have depended on what you were trading. Can't speak for individual stocks, but SET 50 futures and options system wasn't as it should be.

Cheers

Fletch

[Pesche]

Is the Boomerang flying back...

RIGHT in the face?

[IMA_FARANG]

As in all "markets", rumors and usually unsubstantiated rumors are more important than reality.

Most "investors" are like a spooky herd of cattle ...... it only takes one small noise to spook the herd into a stampede.

Once one cow in the herd spooks and starts running, the whole herd panics.

.

[hawthorne]

I hope this turns out to be the healthy correction that stabilizes markets and not a long term stagnation of sideways movement. Well let's be patient let the dust settle and pick up stock at good evaluations. Too early to clearly see all ramifications from the drastic fall in oil prices, for sure with world markets finding weaknesses capital spending is slowing, banks will increase defaults, leveraged development groups will not be able to sell the properties, constructions slows and soon unemployment goes up. It just has a cascading affect that you see fear in the markets because what might happen. We need a healthy scare to pull in the spending and to create more cautious stock buying. Good luck to you traders as I am sure adrenalin is free flowing.

[OnMyWay2]

Will this affect gold prices?

Should I sell or hold on?

Gold is like your life preserver. It goes up and down but you stay afloat!

[Cake Monster]

My thoughts are, that it is just not the world Oil situation at the moments driving the SET lower, and there are many more issues at play specific to Thailand.

A stock market with over valued shares, ever increasing public and private debt, a current poor economic performance in SE Asia, and markets that are contracting in the world space Ie Agri, MV, Tourism Etc, will all have been pinged by investors, and the volatile ride yesterday was just a warning for things to come.

[blazes]

Strange how so many "analysts" keep spouting the party line of "recovery" [in the US]. Most people know that the official figures (re inflation, GDP "growth", unemployment etc) are lies. We live in an Orwellian world, where up is down and down is up and war is peace and peace is war.

This week the 'analysts' are obsessed with the FOMC's possible hint that interest rates will be raised sooner rather than later. What balderdash.

Why would rates be raised when a currency (the US$) is already too strong and even a slight raise would put hundreds of thousands of mortgage payers over the top and into extreme cutbacks in personal consumption, which accounts for 70% of US GDP.

But, no, we are in recovery mode, so all is well and the Grim Banker Reaper will never come calling for his money back....