Thai SME Bank warns of negative impact of Russian economic crisis

[KKr]

........

Great Britain is biding her time...and has solid cards to play here. No other country has Great in their name, because no other country has earned that appellation.

The American and Chinese hegominies are solid. Great Britain is a rock all would do well not to pound their foreheads upon.

Probably did not pay attention at school, but always thought that the Great country is called the United Kingdom.

Thank you for enlightening me !

Wonder who has bestowed the Great on Britain anyway ?

[Robby nz]

I suspect it would be true to say that the SME bank has its own economic crisis for as of August last year they had 34 billion of bad debt out of a portfolio of 88 billion and were hoping to sell off 20 billion of NLP'.

Which could indicate they don't have very good judgment in choosing who they lend to.

So just what position they are in to help tour companies or to give them advice on pricing would remain to be seen.

[Naam]

The Americans attacked the Russians where it hurts, and effectively. Pattaya, especially, will suffer.

Do NOT mess with the Americans or the Chinese. You will lose every time.

Great Britain is biding her time...and has solid cards to play here. No other country has Great in their name, because no other country has earned that appellation.

The American and Chinese hegominies are solid. Great Britain is a rock all would do well not to pound their foreheads upon.

No other country has Great in their name because...

[FiestyFarang]

This is only the start. The massive drop in the Ruble only started in November. Most people coming to Thailand now booked their holiday way before then. Inflation is rising so people will have less money, and overseas holidays will be much more expensive with the lower Ruble and many will be losing their job. Already large car manufacturers have slowed down. Several Russian banks already have needed help from the Russian government. "the impact of Russian economic problems on Thailand should be limited" except for tourism and property maybe!

[Naam]

The Americans attacked the Russians where it hurts, and effectively. Pattaya, especially, will suffer.

Do NOT mess with the Americans or the Chinese. You will lose every time.

Great Britain is biding her time...and has solid cards to play here. No other country has Great in their name, because no other country has earned that appellation.

The American and Chinese hegominies are solid. Great Britain is a rock all would do well not to pound their foreheads upon.

Impressive post I just wish I could understand it. hegominies?

hegominies = the opposites of hegomaxos... as simple as that

Edited January 2, 2015 by Naam

[TPI]

I should gree with another member in how egoistic and ludicrous does this Thai chairwoman sound:

- "She said the SME Bank rescued them by extending their repayment periods but the bank still required its debtors to continue paying interest in a timely manner" - How is that supposed to be considered as "Rescued". I assumed that SME Bank had rescued itself from losses;

- " She also advised tour operators to cut their fees to woo clients for the sake of their survival in Russia's critical time" - Really? How sweet is that. Why would she advise foreign operators to lose money and not the thai hotels,retailers .. etc?

Is it just me or every time i hear a female representative from thai government giving a comment, it sounds like a comedy show. Or, could it be another Yingluck?

How about applying the following changes,in order to get any tourists back (not only Russians:

1) Have a one solid exchange rate for $100,$50,$20... bills , not cheating;

2) Have the same fee for Thais and foreigners to attend any National Parks, Museums,.. etc;

3) Allow foreigners to own some properties (land ,house.. etc) legally:

4) Have more flexible retirement laws ;

5) Allow foreigners to own businesses legally, on it's own ;

6) Your choice ...

I dont really see how 6) is an option. Tee hee hee.

Also are you not afraid of that it would mean for foreigners to have this much control here? If they make it really easy for all of these things, Thailand would be taken over financially would it not?

No, otherwise how does the US, UK, EU, Australia, NZ and others function?

[timewilltell]

All this talk of people from different nations puts a rather nationalistic stance on things. I know that is ingrained in your average Thai and even more so in any Thai with power but really it misses the point. The Thais have been circling the plughole of descent into ignominity by their racism and xenophobia and huge ego's representing their tiny limited knowledge of reality in the world. The Thai Rak Thai mentality has turned off millions of people from all nations through racism, overcharging and the assumption that Thais can do no wrong and the foreigner is always at fault - it runs through everything including the justice system here - all very well when there is an almost unlimited supply of visitors from a booming world economy or at least from the fact that the economies producing these visitors are so greatly richer that the exchange rate makes Thailand a CHEAP place to come to.

The effects of globalisation and the devaluing of the real value of economies through the fiat currency system of eternal growth has meant that the disparities are reducing and even more so with the way Thailand handles its ecomonic affairs with regards to the currency exchange. All these controls will come back to bite them because the pool of visitors is dwindling from both economic reasons and exchange rate reasons and from decades of abuse of foreigners by Thais and a complete lack of respect.

Put all together it is not hard to see why the likes of Phuket and Pattaya are suffering - the result of greed and corruption coupled with changing world dynamics. Eventually it will dawn on the halfwits who control the tentacles of corruption that the game is up. The Russians were one of the last gasp tourist sources which leaves China and maybe Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam when their economies and people become richer and overtake this place. Som num na.

[Thai at Heart]

All this talk of people from different nations puts a rather nationalistic stance on things. I know that is ingrained in your average Thai and even more so in any Thai with power but really it misses the point. The Thais have been circling the plughole of descent into ignominity by their racism and xenophobia and huge ego's representing their tiny limited knowledge of reality in the world. The Thai Rak Thai mentality has turned off millions of people from all nations through racism, overcharging and the assumption that Thais can do no wrong and the foreigner is always at fault - it runs through everything including the justice system here - all very well when there is an almost unlimited supply of visitors from a booming world economy or at least from the fact that the economies producing these visitors are so greatly richer that the exchange rate makes Thailand a CHEAP place to come to.

The effects of globalisation and the devaluing of the real value of economies through the fiat currency system of eternal growth has meant that the disparities are reducing and even more so with the way Thailand handles its ecomonic affairs with regards to the currency exchange. All these controls will come back to bite them because the pool of visitors is dwindling from both economic reasons and exchange rate reasons and from decades of abuse of foreigners by Thais and a complete lack of respect.

Put all together it is not hard to see why the likes of Phuket and Pattaya are suffering - the result of greed and corruption coupled with changing world dynamics. Eventually it will dawn on the halfwits who control the tentacles of corruption that the game is up. The Russians were one of the last gasp tourist sources which leaves China and maybe Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam when their economies and people become richer and overtake this place. Som num na.

This is a nice moan, but tourism numbers to Thailand have doubled in the last decade or so.

Thailand maybe hasn't done the greatest job of creating a.completely sustainable business out of it with this nationalism and sometimes odd attitude to farangs.

But, numbers are down some this last couple of years and the russians will reduce a lot.

But the sky isn't falling yet.

[toxot]

I usually keep quiet, but now it goes any limits of decency. I most hate when one "nation" triumphs over the other, without any valid reason.

@empireboy - you are seriously think so? I think - "some people", should look at mirror, maybe they understand something.

Dears, in Russia everything is calm, at least for now. Yes, there is a problem with the dollar and, accordingly, with the baht. Don't worry, Russians come to Pattaya little later.)

[wilcopops]

........

Great Britain is biding her time...and has solid cards to play here. No other country has Great in their name, because no other country has earned that appellation.

The American and Chinese hegominies are solid. Great Britain is a rock all would do well not to pound their foreheads upon.

Probably did not pay attention at school, but always thought that the Great country is called the United Kingdom.

Thank you for enlightening me !

Wonder who has bestowed the Great on Britain anyway ?

Britain was called "great" to distinguish it from Brittany which is now part of France.

Edited January 2, 2015 by wilcopops

[Lorn]

The Americans attacked the Russians where it hurts, and effectively. Pattaya, especially, will suffer.

Do NOT mess with the Americans or the Chinese. You will lose every time.

Great Britain is biding her time...and has solid cards to play here. No other country has Great in their name, because no other country has earned that appellation.

The American and Chinese hegominies are solid. Great Britain is a rock all would do well not to pound their foreheads upon.

Nicely said... Thailand should focus it's promotion into making the country a safe and desirable place that Brits, Europeans, Americans and other well intigrated civilised countries would love to holiday in... the Russian bully is just getting what he deserves right now and the noticeable absence of his citizens in Thailand suits some people

This is just nonsense. Why would "civilised" tourists want to come here? The amazing beaches, culture, lovely weather, great shopping? Do you work for TAT? Thailand does and will continue to get mainly the dregs of society who can't afford to holiday anywhere better

[GAZZPA]

I should gree with another member in how egoistic and ludicrous does this Thai chairwoman sound:

- "She said the SME Bank rescued them by extending their repayment periods but the bank still required its debtors to continue paying interest in a timely manner" - How is that supposed to be considered as "Rescued". I assumed that SME Bank had rescued itself from losses;

- " She also advised tour operators to cut their fees to woo clients for the sake of their survival in Russia's critical time" - Really? How sweet is that. Why would she advise foreign operators to lose money and not the thai hotels,retailers .. etc?

Is it just me or every time i hear a female representative from thai government giving a comment, it sounds like a comedy show. Or, could it be another Yingluck?

How about applying the following changes,in order to get any tourists back (not only Russians:

1) Have a one solid exchange rate for $100,$50,$20... bills , not cheating;

2) Have the same fee for Thais and foreigners to attend any National Parks, Museums,.. etc;

3) Allow foreigners to own some properties (land ,house.. etc) legally:

4) Have more flexible retirement laws ;

5) Allow foreigners to own businesses legally, on it's own ;

6) Your choice ...

I dont really see how 6) is an option. Tee hee hee.

Also are you not afraid of that it would mean for foreigners to have this much control here? If they make it really easy for all of these things, Thailand would be taken over financially would it not?

How would Thailand be taken over financially? Can you name any other developing country where foreign land ownership and business ownership has resulted in financial control? There is no foreign conspiracy to "own" Thailand.

This question sounds as xenophobic as the old school Thai's who are sh*t scared of foreigners coming into the country. If they allowed if foreigners might, somehow impact on their ability to blatantly milk the economy for themselves.

Foreign investment is a good thing, how do you think China has managed to grow so rapidly? Where do you think they got the money to invest in their future?

Thailand will fall behind for sure, unless policy and attitude changes and I cannot see that happening, not in this generation anyway.

[Lorn]

I should gree with another member in how egoistic and ludicrous does this Thai chairwoman sound:

- "She said the SME Bank rescued them by extending their repayment periods but the bank still required its debtors to continue paying interest in a timely manner" - How is that supposed to be considered as "Rescued". I assumed that SME Bank had rescued itself from losses;

- " She also advised tour operators to cut their fees to woo clients for the sake of their survival in Russia's critical time" - Really? How sweet is that. Why would she advise foreign operators to lose money and not the thai hotels,retailers .. etc?

Is it just me or every time i hear a female representative from thai government giving a comment, it sounds like a comedy show. Or, could it be another Yingluck?

How about applying the following changes,in order to get any tourists back (not only Russians:

1) Have a one solid exchange rate for $100,$50,$20... bills , not cheating;

2) Have the same fee for Thais and foreigners to attend any National Parks, Museums,.. etc;

3) Allow foreigners to own some properties (land ,house.. etc) legally:

4) Have more flexible retirement laws ;

5) Allow foreigners to own businesses legally, on it's own ;

6) Your choice ...

I dont really see how 6) is an option. Tee hee hee.

Also are you not afraid of that it would mean for foreigners to have this much control here? If they make it really easy for all of these things, Thailand would be taken over financially would it not?

No, otherwise how does the US, UK, EU, Australia, NZ and others function?

I think countries are becoming more restrictive in terms of foreign ownership and for good reason. Probably better to focus on the issue of foreigners being able to become citizens in terms of economic sense but that seems even more unlikely.

"In Canada, several provinces have protections in place limiting the amount of agricultural land foreigners can buy.

• Alberta limits non-residents to two plots of agricultural or recreational land not exceeding a total of 20 acres.
• Saskatchewan restricts sale of agricultural land to foreigners to 10 acres.
• Manitoba prevents non-residents from owning more than 40 acres of farmland and requires that they move to the province within two years of purchasing the land.
• Quebec doesn't allow non-residents to purchase farmland at all without permission from the Commission de protection du territoire agricole du Québec. A non-resident is anyone who has lived in the province for less than 366 days within the 24 months preceding a real estate transaction.

Foreigners — regardless of whether they are temporary residents of Australia or live abroad — are prohibited from buying existing housing stock (homes that have been previously owned or occupied for more than 12 months) for investment purposes — i.e. as a rental or vacation property.

• The exception to the above rule is if a foreigner buys existing housing stock that they plan to demolish and redevelop. The property must be redeveloped within two years, and the redevelopment must increase the number of housing units. The property cannot be rented out prior to the redevelopment. The new property can be rented out, sold or used by the owner.
• Foreigners temporarily residing in Australia can apply to buy one piece of existing property to use as a residence provided they sell it when they leave Australia. This provision was meant to address complaints that Asian investors buying property for children studying in Australia were outbidding locals and holding onto property after their children left the country. These are some of the same complaints being raised currently in Canada.

Swiss real estate is some of the most coveted in the world, but the country also has some of the strictest rules when it comes to foreign ownership.

• The government assigns annual quotas to the country's cantons limiting the number of houses or flats that can be sold to foreigners who do not reside in Switzerland. Each sale must still be authorized by the canton in which the property is located, and the cantons can set their own additional restrictions. Many limit foreign property sales to tourist regions, for example, or allow foreigners to purchase only property that is already foreign-owned."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/real-estate-rules-don-t-discriminate-against-foreigners-1.1216517

Edited January 2, 2015 by Lorn

[mok199]

rumour is beach chairs in pattaya will go up from 40bt to 50bt...the thai attitide is when buisness is slow raise the prices for the ones that DO come.

[hupaknomore]

I should gree with another member in how egoistic and ludicrous does this Thai chairwoman sound:

- "She said the SME Bank rescued them by extending their repayment periods but the bank still required its debtors to continue paying interest in a timely manner" - How is that supposed to be considered as "Rescued". I assumed that SME Bank had rescued itself from losses;

- " She also advised tour operators to cut their fees to woo clients for the sake of their survival in Russia's critical time" - Really? How sweet is that. Why would she advise foreign operators to lose money and not the thai hotels,retailers .. etc?

Is it just me or every time i hear a female representative from thai government giving a comment, it sounds like a comedy show. Or, could it be another Yingluck?

How about applying the following changes,in order to get any tourists back (not only Russians:

1) Have a one solid exchange rate for $100,$50,$20... bills , not cheating;

2) Have the same fee for Thais and foreigners to attend any National Parks, Museums,.. etc;

3) Allow foreigners to own some properties (land ,house.. etc) legally:

4) Have more flexible retirement laws ;

5) Allow foreigners to own businesses legally, on it's own ;

6) Your choice ...

I dont really see how 6) is an option. Tee hee hee.

Also are you not afraid of that it would mean for foreigners to have this much control here? If they make it really easy for all of these things, Thailand would be taken over financially would it not?

No, otherwise how does the US, UK, EU, Australia, NZ and others function?

I think countries are becoming more restrictive in terms of foreign ownership and for good reason. Probably better to focus on the issue of foreigners being able to become citizens in terms of economic sense but that seems even more unlikely.

"In Canada, several provinces have protections in place limiting the amount of agricultural land foreigners can buy.

• Alberta limits non-residents to two plots of agricultural or recreational land not exceeding a total of 20 acres.
• Saskatchewan restricts sale of agricultural land to foreigners to 10 acres.
• Manitoba prevents non-residents from owning more than 40 acres of farmland and requires that they move to the province within two years of purchasing the land.
• Quebec doesn't allow non-residents to purchase farmland at all without permission from the Commission de protection du territoire agricole du Québec. A non-resident is anyone who has lived in the province for less than 366 days within the 24 months preceding a real estate transaction.

Foreigners — regardless of whether they are temporary residents of Australia or live abroad — are prohibited from buying existing housing stock (homes that have been previously owned or occupied for more than 12 months) for investment purposes — i.e. as a rental or vacation property.

• The exception to the above rule is if a foreigner buys existing housing stock that they plan to demolish and redevelop. The property must be redeveloped within two years, and the redevelopment must increase the number of housing units. The property cannot be rented out prior to the redevelopment. The new property can be rented out, sold or used by the owner.
• Foreigners temporarily residing in Australia can apply to buy one piece of existing property to use as a residence provided they sell it when they leave Australia. This provision was meant to address complaints that Asian investors buying property for children studying in Australia were outbidding locals and holding onto property after their children left the country. These are some of the same complaints being raised currently in Canada.

Swiss real estate is some of the most coveted in the world, but the country also has some of the strictest rules when it comes to foreign ownership.

• The government assigns annual quotas to the country's cantons limiting the number of houses or flats that can be sold to foreigners who do not reside in Switzerland. Each sale must still be authorized by the canton in which the property is located, and the cantons can set their own additional restrictions. Many limit foreign property sales to tourist regions, for example, or allow foreigners to purchase only property that is already foreign-owned."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/real-estate-rules-don-t-discriminate-against-foreigners-1.1216517

Another typical Thai response. Can you guys engage in a productive conversation,not to divert from a topic. Were are trying to find a solution for your government to attract foreigners, not to lose them them. However, with your current state of mentality, you will lose more foreigners. Forget about the previous glory of "The Land of Smiles".People don't buy it anymore.

I did ask you for a" #6 - your choice", not to google,copy and paste the countries which have a well developed economy. Are yo usaying that Thailand stands in the same row with Austalia,Canada, Switzerland ... etc.?

[Cake Monster]

Despite what many Thais would have people believe, there is a whole world outside the borders of Thailand.

This mainly democratic world, is powered by commerce, and the resourcefulness of the citizens within those world economies, and as markets swing either up, or down, the majority of business has the ability and drive to manage their own destiny and fortunes.

However, in Thailand there appears to be no aptitude from Thai business leaders and owners to be able to either manage, or adapt when things get a little tough, and out comes the begging bowl for cheap loans and handouts, which a succession of Governments are only too willing to fill for the sake of the populist policy of the day.

Its a very sad state of affairs when a business puts all its efforts into servicing only one customer, and in a down turn they get hit hard, and this is what is happening now for Thai business ( especially in the housing market ) and Tourism sector.

4% growth this year ? - in your dreams

Edited January 3, 2015 by Cake Monster

[hawthorne]

Is this the bank Thaksin created for fictitious loans of cronies and friends? Does anyone really believe the U.S. orchestrated the downfall of oil prices? How absurd as this continues can only lead to a serious financial crisis in the U.S. as loans are defaulted on all the huge capital projects associated with the fracking business.

[clownsyndrome]

This is a nice moan, but tourism numbers to Thailand have doubled in the last decade or so.

Thailand maybe hasn't done the greatest job of creating a.completely sustainable business out of it with this nationalism and sometimes odd attitude to farangs.

But, numbers are down some this last couple of years and the russians will reduce a lot.

But the sky isn't falling yet.

Tourism has doubled so the infrastructure grows to meet the demand -there's too much supply, Hotel booking in some places are just 40%

[Thai at Heart]

This is a nice moan, but tourism numbers to Thailand have doubled in the last decade or so.

Thailand maybe hasn't done the greatest job of creating a.completely sustainable business out of it with this nationalism and sometimes odd attitude to farangs.

But, numbers are down some this last couple of years and the russians will reduce a lot.

But the sky isn't falling yet.

Tourism has doubled so the infrastructure grows to meet the demand -there's too much supply, Hotel booking in some places are just 40%

But the total amount of arrivals is still way above what it was 5 years ago. They were however very stupid to blindly chase Russian and Chinese arrivals

[konying]

I think its almost time for Jerusalem, followed by Land of Hope and Glory and anyone for Hearts of Oak? The world owes the Brits a lot, it cost them their Empire, the free world should never forget that.

On topic. why has it taken so long for this surprise announcement about the lack of Roubles to emerge? It was pretty obvious 6 months ago that something "was afoot" as Sherlock Holmes would have said. I am happy about the result, I got a bit fed up being given a menu in Russian all the time, maps in Russian, adverts in Russian. Crimea is a much better place for them, cold, wet and cheap, they dont like to haggle you know. Anyone seen any cheap condo's going lately?

Perfect example of pure and utter ignorance.

Putting aside you have never been to Crimea I doubt you could even pin point it on the map even if it was in English

Edited January 3, 2015 by konying

[timewilltell]

All this talk of people from different nations puts a rather nationalistic stance on things. I know that is ingrained in your average Thai and even more so in any Thai with power but really it misses the point. The Thais have been circling the plughole of descent into ignominity by their racism and xenophobia and huge ego's representing their tiny limited knowledge of reality in the world. The Thai Rak Thai mentality has turned off millions of people from all nations through racism, overcharging and the assumption that Thais can do no wrong and the foreigner is always at fault - it runs through everything including the justice system here - all very well when there is an almost unlimited supply of visitors from a booming world economy or at least from the fact that the economies producing these visitors are so greatly richer that the exchange rate makes Thailand a CHEAP place to come to.

The effects of globalisation and the devaluing of the real value of economies through the fiat currency system of eternal growth has meant that the disparities are reducing and even more so with the way Thailand handles its ecomonic affairs with regards to the currency exchange. All these controls will come back to bite them because the pool of visitors is dwindling from both economic reasons and exchange rate reasons and from decades of abuse of foreigners by Thais and a complete lack of respect.

Put all together it is not hard to see why the likes of Phuket and Pattaya are suffering - the result of greed and corruption coupled with changing world dynamics. Eventually it will dawn on the halfwits who control the tentacles of corruption that the game is up. The Russians were one of the last gasp tourist sources which leaves China and maybe Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam when their economies and people become richer and overtake this place. Som num na.

This is a nice moan, but tourism numbers to Thailand have doubled in the last decade or so.

Thailand maybe hasn't done the greatest job of creating a.completely sustainable business out of it with this nationalism and sometimes odd attitude to farangs.

But, numbers are down some this last couple of years and the russians will reduce a lot.

But the sky isn't falling yet.

Tourism is a cyclical business, not just in the seasons of the host and supplying nations but on a larger scale. Within those cycles are secondary cycles of economics of various countries and regions as well as globally. One of those cycles relates to the perceived cost of visiting a far away country and another is the social awareness of the place.

Tourists are fickle though and go through fashions of where the next 'hot' place is. Remember the Costa Brava - it's a great example of greed and corruption and is a pretty good corollary to Thailand. With unfettered construction and a disdain of tourists which grew year on year until it became out of fashion. Why? It wasn't yo do with economics so much as an exposure of the disgraceful way tourists were ripped off and with the tacit support of the government who obviously also treated their visitors with disdain.

My point was that every place suffers falls in numbers from economics, and benefits from an explosion that will come for a while from cheaper accessibility which might last a decade or so before the novelty turns into the ordinary by which time many have already come. But if those visitors are treated badly they will not come back as there are plenty of other more welcoming places to go. Eventually you use up the initial surge and if you have put them all off as Thailand continues to do then the other cycles will kick on top of a drop from the mistreatment and a place goes out of fashion and deservedly so. My point was that Thailand has worked its way through the initial surges of tourists that have come from economic prosperity of various regions and done a very poor job of treating those visitors with respect so there will be some pretty leans ahead I think. From the bigger hotel point of view the MICE visitors will be off put by the martial law which is hurting that sector just adding to the other issues.

I see nothing changing in the mindset so further decline is likely in the short to medium term.

[Traveler19491]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Could this announcement simply be the start of a media campaign to put the blame for (yet another) year of falling tourist numbers and lower than expected economic growth on something other than the powers that be?

Seriously doubtful, although I'm sure that the Thai tourism folks will use this to their propaganda advantage. The ruble has lost half its value, and I know that if the dollar lost half its value, and I were only getting 16 baht to the dollar instead of 32, that'd put a bit of a crimp in my lifestyle. The Ruskies just can't afford the luxuries right now. But their currency will recover, although it make take some time to get back to its former value, and when that happens, Pattaya will be back to its old (rather forlorn) self.

[wilcopops]

All this talk of people from different nations puts a rather nationalistic stance on things. I know that is ingrained in your average Thai and even more so in any Thai with power but really it misses the point. The Thais have been circling the plughole of descent into ignominity by their racism and xenophobia and huge ego's representing their tiny limited knowledge of reality in the world. The Thai Rak Thai mentality has turned off millions of people from all nations through racism, overcharging and the assumption that Thais can do no wrong and the foreigner is always at fault - it runs through everything including the justice system here - all very well when there is an almost unlimited supply of visitors from a booming world economy or at least from the fact that the economies producing these visitors are so greatly richer that the exchange rate makes Thailand a CHEAP place to come to.

The effects of globalisation and the devaluing of the real value of economies through the fiat currency system of eternal growth has meant that the disparities are reducing and even more so with the way Thailand handles its ecomonic affairs with regards to the currency exchange. All these controls will come back to bite them because the pool of visitors is dwindling from both economic reasons and exchange rate reasons and from decades of abuse of foreigners by Thais and a complete lack of respect.

Put all together it is not hard to see why the likes of Phuket and Pattaya are suffering - the result of greed and corruption coupled with changing world dynamics. Eventually it will dawn on the halfwits who control the tentacles of corruption that the game is up. The Russians were one of the last gasp tourist sources which leaves China and maybe Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam when their economies and people become richer and overtake this place. Som num na.

This is a nice moan, but tourism numbers to Thailand have doubled in the last decade or so.

Thailand maybe hasn't done the greatest job of creating a.completely sustainable business out of it with this nationalism and sometimes odd attitude to farangs.

But, numbers are down some this last couple of years and the russians will reduce a lot.

But the sky isn't falling yet.

Tourism is a cyclical business, not just in the seasons of the host and supplying nations but on a larger scale. Within those cycles are secondary cycles of economics of various countries and regions as well as globally. One of those cycles relates to the perceived cost of visiting a far away country and another is the social awareness of the place.

Tourists are fickle though and go through fashions of where the next 'hot' place is. Remember the Costa Brava - it's a great example of greed and corruption and is a pretty good corollary to Thailand. With unfettered construction and a disdain of tourists which grew year on year until it became out of fashion. Why? It wasn't yo do with economics so much as an exposure of the disgraceful way tourists were ripped off and with the tacit support of the government who obviously also treated their visitors with disdain.

My point was that every place suffers falls in numbers from economics, and benefits from an explosion that will come for a while from cheaper accessibility which might last a decade or so before the novelty turns into the ordinary by which time many have already come. But if those visitors are treated badly they will not come back as there are plenty of other more welcoming places to go. Eventually you use up the initial surge and if you have put them all off as Thailand continues to do then the other cycles will kick on top of a drop from the mistreatment and a place goes out of fashion and deservedly so. My point was that Thailand has worked its way through the initial surges of tourists that have come from economic prosperity of various regions and done a very poor job of treating those visitors with respect so there will be some pretty leans ahead I think. From the bigger hotel point of view the MICE visitors will be off put by the martial law which is hurting that sector just adding to the other issues.

I see nothing changing in the mindset so further decline is likely in the short to medium term.

Nice! Except economics is not cyclic.