Opinion: Thailand and the Coup Trap

[george]

OPINION

Thailand and the Coup Trap
By FORREST E. COOKSON and TOM F. JOEHNK

BANGKOK: — Fifteen billion dollars. That’s roughly the price tag of the coup d’état to date. And it’s the difference between the Thai economy, Southeast Asia’s second-biggest, stagnating, as it is now, or its chugging along at 4 percent, its average growth rate since 2001.

When a group of generals led by Prayuth Chan-ocha toppled the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra last May, their political agenda was clear: They wanted to quell a mounting legitimacy crisis. For many weeks protesters had been taking to the streets to condemn Ms. Shinawatra’s management of the economy and a controversial amnesty bill that would have benefited her brother Thaksin, a former prime minister in self-exile whose political parties have dominated Thai politics since 2001.

Now the economic consequences of the military takeover have become plain. The protests that precipitated the coup had already slowed growth, partly because of blocks on government borrowing, stalled exports and a restrictive monetary policy. And the situation has hardly improved since.

The Bank of Thailand recently slashed its projections for G.D.P. growth for 2014 from 1.5 percent to 0.8 percent — compared with 2.9 percent in 2013, before the coup, according to the National Economic and Social Development Board (N.E.S.D.B.), Thailand’s state economic planning agency. Rather than achieve what the official propaganda claims — order, stability, growth — the return to old-fashioned autocracy threatens to bring economic near-stagnation and will likely increase income inequality.

The takeover in May was at least the 12th military coup in Thailand since 1932, the year constitutional monarchy was introduced. When generals have taken power in the past, they have used the opportunity to develop the country. There was rapid economic growth from 1983 until 1996, largely under Gen. Prem Tinsulanonda, who held office until 1988. Back then the economy got a jolt from a major devaluation of the currency (the baht) and a series of measures designed to promote rapid industrialization by encouraging foreign investment (mostly from Japan), infrastructure expansion and industrial exports.

In theory, the current junta could also make a big economic contribution. But in a bid to scour the system of Mr. Thaksin’s influence, the generals have been turning their backs on many policies favored by his government, including those that worked.

Mr. Thaksin’s signature economic achievement was to encourage consumption among lower-class people: His government provided access to affordable health care, gave out credits to rural communities, and created a transfer system benefiting poor students and old people. Today, the generals are reducing transfers to lower-income groups, concentrating on unfocused infrastructure expansion and taking no action to increase exports or tourism.

This will not do in the face of Thailand’s aging population and broken educational system, and of the global economic slowdown. Especially not when stagnation already threatens the social contract. The N.E.S.D.B. reckons that 0.1 percent of Thais own nearly half of the country’s assets. Capitalist America, where 0.1 percent of the population owns one-fifth of all assets, looks like a socialist paradise in comparison.

Some simple, well-known measures could do much immediate good. The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht. The government could boost private consumption with a massive transfer program to farmers, students and the elderly. The Bank of Thailand could make credit more readily available by increasing the money supply, and it could stop using interests rate to manage monetary policy, which has not been effective.

Yet the chances of such policies being implemented are low. The Bank of Thailand seems crippled by conservatism and uncertainty. Fiscal policy is in the hands of bureaucrats who are fearful of spending public money. The generals’ own support base is too narrow for them to suggest, much less achieve, anything contentious. And some of their economic proposals so far have been essentially nationalistic and risk discouraging foreign investment.

Every rational path out of stagnation seems blocked by autocratic rule. Thailand is not, as many economists argue, in a middle-income trap; it is in a coup trap. And this is a self-inflicted condition.

To raise the economic welfare of all Thais, and reduce the economic inequalities that have underlain political conflicts, by our estimation Thailand’s G.D.P. growth rate would have to be brought up to at least 6 percent. For that, though, bold measures are needed.

Small and medium-sized investors need to be given greater access to credit. The financial sector must be made more competitive, including with the creation of new lending institutions, ideally more domestic commercial banks. The junta should also encourage more foreign direct investment in high technology, both to increase productivity in existing manufacturing (such as the automotive industry) and to spur higher-value manufacturing (such as for pharmaceuticals and telecommunication products).

In the 1980s and 1990s, Thailand developed its Eastern Seaboard by turning infrastructure built in the Gulf of Thailand during the Vietnam War into one of Asia’s greatest production and export platforms, especially for automobiles and petrochemical products. A similarly grand strategy today might be to revive this old idea: creating an alternative route to the Strait of Malacca, the world’s busiest shipping lane, by digging a canal through the Kra Isthmus, in southern Thailand. A diversified manufacturing belt could then be developed along the canal, with two new great ports on either end. Another option would be to build a vast economic zone in the north and northeast of Thailand to supply the Chinese market.

The generals claim to want to address all these issues urgently. They must adopt a bold approach to overcome bureaucratic inertia or else recovery will be slow. Reviving the economy is their single best chance of justifying the coup and stabilizing the country.

Forrest E. Cookson is an economist. Tom F. Joehnk writes for The Economist.

-- Source: New York Times

[kalbo123]

So Junta bad for economy, but good for the happy few,Thaksin bad for a lot of farang (why I don't know) but good for economy...

Edited January 4, 2015 by kalbo123

[NeverSure]

What a load of crap. Why do so many "experts" think that government spending is the way to prosperity? Governments are consumers of wealth. Only the private sector can create new wealth. All the government can do is spend money it didn't earn by taking money away from those who earned it via taxes, or spending borrowed money.

Thailand simply needs to make it easier for companies to get established in Thailand, make it possible for people to own 100% of what they invest in, and stop the confiscation of investment money via import taxes on materials and equipment needed to do business. If Thailand want's to continue to prohibit foreigners from owning land, fine. Most big businesses don't want to own their premises. They want to invest in business expansion.

When the clueless like this make these statements, they are in effect recommending that everyone stand in a circle with their hands in each others' pockets so they'll all get rich. They have no clue about what it takes to make it easy to create new wealth to share. (New wealth would be a car built from raw materials, etc.)

[marinediscoking]

The N.E.S.D.B. reckons that 0.1 percent of Thais own nearly half of the country’s assets.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed.

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's until the Coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand.

[jpeg]

This article has already been linked to several times over the past few days. TV running short of things they can publish? Other than polls on how well the junta/General's doing of course. Yawn

[manfrommanteo]

What a load of crap. Why do so many "experts" think that government spending is the way to prosperity? Governments are consumers of wealth. Only the private sector can create new wealth. All the government can do is spend money it didn't earn by taking money away from those who earned it via taxes, or spending borrowed money.

Thailand simply needs to make it easier for companies to get established in Thailand, make it possible for people to own 100% of what they invest in, and stop the confiscation of investment money via import taxes on materials and equipment needed to do business. If Thailand want's to continue to prohibit foreigners from owning land, fine. Most big businesses don't want to own their premises. They want to invest in business expansion.

When the clueless like this make these statements, they are in effect recommending that everyone stand in a circle with their hands in each others' pockets so they'll all get rich. They have no clue about what it takes to make it easy to create new wealth to share. (New wealth would be a car built from raw materials, etc.)

I agree with you, NeverSure. The writers of the article are Keynesian economists, which is a failed and severely flawed economic theory. Pure b.s. from the writers of the article.

[Suriya4]

Too negative. I hope prayuth ban the writer from thailand. He never honor the good think prayuth did, like return happiness to Thai people

[mrjohndub]

^I guess you failed to notice the article was singularly about economic policies, not 'happiness'. Additionally, the NYT hasn't the time or interest in producing propaganda puff pieces to make the dear leader look good. If you seriously think that this coup was about benefitting the people, you are hopeless.

[ukrules]

I wonder what a civil war would have done for the economy ?

[Seismic]

Too negative. I hope prayuth ban the writer from thailand. He never honor the good think prayuth did, like return happiness to Thai people

Seriously ???, I dont know which Thai people you think are happy now, but it is none of the Thai people I know.

[longway]

The N.E.S.D.B. reckons that 0.1 percent of Thais own nearly half of the countrys assets.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed.

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's until the Coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand.

It is a pure propaganda piece. Its source, from all places, is an article from The Nation newspaper. The nesdb said .1% or 1% ( i dont remember) own half the value of the Thailand's bank accounts. The nation then conflated that with Thailand's assets, which is what this propaganda piece is using.

The first time this source was used was in the economist and it was further distorted there to assert that .1% owned half thailands wealth.

Its an absolute lie, there is no way an economist can make this mistake, and the fact it has happened twice makes it a pattern of lies.

.

They also use the same line about the usa being a socialist paradiseby comparison in the first article in the economist, in fact the gini coefficient, which is a widely accepted measure of distribution of wealth shows thailand has a better wealth distribution than the usa and most of se asia.

Uttter bs from the nyt, and done on purpose

Edited January 4, 2015 by longway

[lildragon]

Ohh Suriya, I like your yellow trolling on here the most. Very simple and subtle.

The real Junta cheer leaders will be in here soon. No doubt rubbishing the article, attacking it because it is American and a whole host of other things to deflect away from the facts.

Mikemac,daffyduck,rubl, djjamie etc we await your inevitable intervention.

[surangw]

much like a chicken coup. its ok if you are on the top, but on ground level its just a pile of feathers and crap.

[NeverSure]

There's not supposed to be equal wealth distribution. There's only supposed to be a rule of law and equal opportunity.

You can't build a ladder without having a bottom rung and a top rung. Some people, no matter what you do, will always be on the bottom rung and some will be on the top. You will have those who are entrepreneurs making a lot of money and providing jobs for those who have no drive or interest or talent for being an entrepreneur. Some people a satisfied to coast with little drive and little education.

All the government owes its people is equal opportunity and a lack of corruption in the system. It also owes the people the right to be on top financially if they succeed at that.

Confiscating what entrepreneurs earn "to be fair" to those who didn't earn it hamstrings the entrepreneur who now doesn't have his money to expand his business and create more jobs with all including himself paying taxes.

If you want to jump-start an economy, lower taxes and make it easy to start or expand a business. Tighten the government's belt. Eventually the government will get the same amount of money from the lower tax rates as more people have more money to be taxed.

[kkerry]

Too negative. I hope prayuth ban the writer from thailand. He never honor the good think prayuth did, like return happiness to Thai people

Seriously ???, I dont know which Thai people you think are happy now, but it is none of the Thai people I know.

There will probably be a poll out later in the week conducted by the Independent Thai Peoples Democratic Coalition for Happiness which will show 94.3% of happy Thai people are happy happy, and the other 5.7% better get happy soon or else...

[tonbridgebrit]

The N.E.S.D.B. reckons that 0.1 percent of Thais own nearly half of the countrys assets.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed.

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's until the Coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand.

It is a pure propaganda piece. Its source, from all places, is an article from The Nation newspaper. The nesdb said .1% or 1% ( i dont remember) own half the value of the Thailand's bank accounts. The nation then conflated that with Thailand's assets, which is what this propaganda piece is using.

The first time this source was used was in the economist and it was further distorted there to assert that .1% owned half thailands wealth.

Its an absolute lie, there is no way an economist can make this mistake, and the fact it has happened twice makes it a pattern of lies.

.

They also use the same line about the usa being a socialist paradiseby comparison in the first article in the economist, in fact the gini coefficient, which is a widely accepted measure of distribution of wealth shows thailand has a better wealth distribution than the usa and most of se asia.

Uttter bs from the nyt, and done on purpose

So, should the New York Times be banned in Thailand ? And the Nation newspaper be closed down ?

After all "its source, from all places, is an article from The Nation newspaper."

Life, you have to make strong decisions. Either that, or the anti-Thaksinites can boycott the Nation newspaper.

[rametindallas]

The N.E.S.D.B. reckons that 0.1 percent of Thais own nearly half of the country’s assets.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed.

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's until the Coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% You changed 0.1percent (1/10%) in the OP, to 0.01 percent (1/100%). Typo? democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed. The previous government was trying for a 'reset' also, except their method of resetting was to give pardons to Thaksin and 25,000 political corruption cases stretching back to 2004. The protesters found this was enough cause to take to the streets (and without being paid to as the Red Shirts were in 2010).

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's Nowhere in the article did it mention how well the economy was going for Thais or 'poor' Thais until the Coup of 2006 Nor did it mention the coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97. You must be very good at reading between the lines to surmise all that.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand. FYI, one doesn't have to be a 'Yellow' to dislike the kleptocracy of Thaksin and his puppet governments.

For all the suggestions by the foreign economists to improve Thailand's economy, which of their recommendations did Thaksin implement?

Mr. Thaksin’s signature economic achievement was to encourage consumption among lower-class people and lead the people into a terrible debt burden while making the economy look good (off borrowed money during a world-wide economic expansion) The current government, by contrast, is hobbled by a world-wide recession and the theft of nearly a trillion Baht through the previous government's Rice Support Scheme. The Isthmus of Kraa Canal project is not feasible but the new double-tracked, standard-gauge, freight lines being developed by the current government is a more practical way of improving the overall economy; as is clamping down on corruption.

The whole premise of the article has no base to stand on because the economy was already headed for the tank because Thailand had no real government for half a year before the coup and Suthep's Army was blocking any economic progress/development. It is utterly ridiculous for anyone to blame the current state of the Thai economy on a government that has been in power for only a few months.

Edited January 4, 2015 by rametindallas

[JAG]

It can't be Sutheps fault. He is a simple monk!

[Thai at Heart]

What a load of crap. Why do so many "experts" think that government spending is the way to prosperity? Governments are consumers of wealth. Only the private sector can create new wealth. All the government can do is spend money it didn't earn by taking money away from those who earned it via taxes, or spending borrowed money.

Thailand simply needs to make it easier for companies to get established in Thailand, make it possible for people to own 100% of what they invest in, and stop the confiscation of investment money via import taxes on materials and equipment needed to do business. If Thailand want's to continue to prohibit foreigners from owning land, fine. Most big businesses don't want to own their premises. They want to invest in business expansion.

When the clueless like this make these statements, they are in effect recommending that everyone stand in a circle with their hands in each others' pockets so they'll all get rich. They have no clue about what it takes to make it easy to create new wealth to share. (New wealth would be a car built from raw materials, etc.)

Most of what they talk about is credit not govt spending.

Not that I agree, but changes to things like the minimum wage all contribute to attempt to balance the wealth distribution a little.

[Kf6vci]

Deficit spending isn't the answer. The national debt has doubled the last decade! The Chiang Mai - Bankok high speed rail track will not be commercially feasible when the price will be too high.

Jobsworth is another serious issue. All these bureaucrats. Take education - it's looking grim.

[candide]

Deficit spending isn't the answer. The national debt has doubled the last decade! The Chiang Mai - Bankok high speed rail track will not be commercially feasible when the price will be too high.

Jobsworth is another serious issue. All these bureaucrats. Take education - it's looking grim.

You cannot take just the amount of debt. You must compare with GDP, so the debt situation has not worsened during the last decade i.e.

"Thailand recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 45.70 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2013. Government Debt to GDP in Thailand averaged 45.44 Percent from 1996 until 2013, reaching an all time high of 57.80 Percent in 2000 and a record low of 15.20 Percent in 1996."

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/government-debt-to-gdp

[candide]

The N.E.S.D.B. reckons that 0.1 percent of Thais own nearly half of the country’s assets.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed.

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's until the Coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% You changed 0.1percent (1/10%) in the OP, to 0.01 percent (1/100%). Typo? democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed. The previous government was trying for a 'reset' also, except their method of resetting was to give pardons to Thaksin and 25,000 political corruption cases stretching back to 2004. The protesters found this was enough cause to take to the streets (and without being paid to as the Red Shirts were in 2010).

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's Nowhere in the article did it mention how well the economy was going for Thais or 'poor' Thais until the Coup of 2006 Nor did it mention the coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97. You must be very good at reading between the lines to surmise all that.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand. FYI, one doesn't have to be a 'Yellow' to dislike the kleptocracy of Thaksin and his puppet governments.

For all the suggestions by the foreign economists to improve Thailand's economy, which of their recommendations did Thaksin implement?

Mr. Thaksin’s signature economic achievement was to encourage consumption among lower-class people and lead the people into a terrible debt burden while making the economy look good (off borrowed money during a world-wide economic expansion) The current government, by contrast, is hobbled by a world-wide recession and the theft of nearly a trillion Baht through the previous government's Rice Support Scheme. The Isthmus of Kraa Canal project is not feasible but the new double-tracked, standard-gauge, freight lines being developed by the current government is a more practical way of improving the overall economy; as is clamping down on corruption.

The whole premise of the article has no base to stand on because the economy was already headed for the tank because Thailand had no real government for half a year before the coup and Suthep's Army was blocking any economic progress/development. It is utterly ridiculous for anyone to blame the current state of the Thai economy on a government that has been in power for only a few months.

The whole premise of your reasoning is the fairy tale of unrelated PDRC and Junta. If you consider that PDRC protests and the Junta are part of the same political movement and that the protests have paved the way for the coup (even Suthep is in agreement with this analysis), then it makes sense to consider that this political movement leading to an unelected assembly and "reform before elections" is responsible for a loss of at least 3% of GDP growth in 2014.

[NongKhaiKid]

Too negative. I hope prayuth ban the writer from thailand. He never honor the good think prayuth did, like return happiness to Thai people

Seriously ???, I dont know which Thai people you think are happy now, but it is none of the Thai people I know.

Apart from being official policy, and requirement, to be happy the nation must be rejoicing that the PMs only interest and priority seems to be organising bicycle lanes, anyway what more could happy people want ?

[rametindallas]

The N.E.S.D.B. reckons that 0.1 percent of Thais own nearly half of the country’s assets.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed.

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's until the Coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% You changed 0.1percent (1/10%) in the OP, to 0.01 percent (1/100%). Typo? democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed. The previous government was trying for a 'reset' also, except their method of resetting was to give pardons to Thaksin and 25,000 political corruption cases stretching back to 2004. The protesters found this was enough cause to take to the streets (and without being paid to as the Red Shirts were in 2010).

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's Nowhere in the article did it mention how well the economy was going for Thais or 'poor' Thais until the Coup of 2006 Nor did it mention the coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97. You must be very good at reading between the lines to surmise all that.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand. FYI, one doesn't have to be a 'Yellow' to dislike the kleptocracy of Thaksin and his puppet governments.

For all the suggestions by the foreign economists to improve Thailand's economy, which of their recommendations did Thaksin implement?

Mr. Thaksin’s signature economic achievement was to encourage consumption among lower-class people and lead the people into a terrible debt burden while making the economy look good (off borrowed money during a world-wide economic expansion) The current government, by contrast, is hobbled by a world-wide recession and the theft of nearly a trillion Baht through the previous government's Rice Support Scheme. The Isthmus of Kraa Canal project is not feasible but the new double-tracked, standard-gauge, freight lines being developed by the current government is a more practical way of improving the overall economy; as is clamping down on corruption.

The whole premise of the article has no base to stand on because the economy was already headed for the tank because Thailand had no real government for half a year before the coup and Suthep's Army was blocking any economic progress/development. It is utterly ridiculous for anyone to blame the current state of the Thai economy on a government that has been in power for only a few months.

The whole premise of your reasoning is the fairy tale of unrelated PDRC and Junta. If you consider that PDRC protests and the Junta are part of the same political movement and that the protests have paved the way for the coup (even Suthep is in agreement with this analysis), then it makes sense to consider that this political movement leading to an unelected assembly and "reform before elections" is responsible for a loss of at least 3% of GDP growth in 2014.

If you consider that PDRC protests and the Junta are part of the same political movement

I don't!

[tbthailand]

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed.

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's until the Coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% You changed 0.1percent (1/10%) in the OP, to 0.01 percent (1/100%). Typo? democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed. The previous government was trying for a 'reset' also, except their method of resetting was to give pardons to Thaksin and 25,000 political corruption cases stretching back to 2004. The protesters found this was enough cause to take to the streets (and without being paid to as the Red Shirts were in 2010).

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's Nowhere in the article did it mention how well the economy was going for Thais or 'poor' Thais until the Coup of 2006 Nor did it mention the coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97. You must be very good at reading between the lines to surmise all that.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand. FYI, one doesn't have to be a 'Yellow' to dislike the kleptocracy of Thaksin and his puppet governments.

For all the suggestions by the foreign economists to improve Thailand's economy, which of their recommendations did Thaksin implement?

Mr. Thaksin’s signature economic achievement was to encourage consumption among lower-class people and lead the people into a terrible debt burden while making the economy look good (off borrowed money during a world-wide economic expansion) The current government, by contrast, is hobbled by a world-wide recession and the theft of nearly a trillion Baht through the previous government's Rice Support Scheme. The Isthmus of Kraa Canal project is not feasible but the new double-tracked, standard-gauge, freight lines being developed by the current government is a more practical way of improving the overall economy; as is clamping down on corruption.

The whole premise of the article has no base to stand on because the economy was already headed for the tank because Thailand had no real government for half a year before the coup and Suthep's Army was blocking any economic progress/development. It is utterly ridiculous for anyone to blame the current state of the Thai economy on a government that has been in power for only a few months.

The whole premise of your reasoning is the fairy tale of unrelated PDRC and Junta. If you consider that PDRC protests and the Junta are part of the same political movement and that the protests have paved the way for the coup (even Suthep is in agreement with this analysis), then it makes sense to consider that this political movement leading to an unelected assembly and "reform before elections" is responsible for a loss of at least 3% of GDP growth in 2014.

If you consider that PDRC protests and the Junta are part of the same political movement

I don't!

a lot of people do.

There is a history of events and evidence to support the position.

It's not at all unreasonable to take that position.

Arguing the position that the junta and PDRC are not part of the same political faction is significantly more difficult.

[tbthailand]

The N.E.S.D.B. reckons that 0.1 percent of Thais own nearly half of the countrys assets.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed.

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's until the Coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand.

It is a pure propaganda piece. Its source, from all places, is an article from The Nation newspaper. The nesdb said .1% or 1% ( i dont remember) own half the value of the Thailand's bank accounts. The nation then conflated that with Thailand's assets, which is what this propaganda piece is using.

The first time this source was used was in the economist and it was further distorted there to assert that .1% owned half thailands wealth.

Its an absolute lie, there is no way an economist can make this mistake, and the fact it has happened twice makes it a pattern of lies.

.

They also use the same line about the usa being a socialist paradiseby comparison in the first article in the economist, in fact the gini coefficient, which is a widely accepted measure of distribution of wealth shows thailand has a better wealth distribution than the usa and most of se asia.

Uttter bs from the nyt, and done on purpose

the original report on the income inequality does reference 'assets' and not bank accounts. Do you have a reference from the NESDB by chance? I don't find anything that could be considered an original source for the Nations's September article.

[tbthailand]

here is a graphic that shows one of the reasons for social disorder in Thailand.

[sanuk711]

Fifteen billion dollars. That’s roughly the price tag of the coup d’état to date.----OP

.

"but he told us he’s had $1 billion of the funds seized by a succeeding government returned to him". ....33 Billion baht a gift to Taksin from sister

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timferguson/2012/10/29/thaksin-in-exile-advising-sister-digging-for-gold/

.

Rice Pledging scheme ..... which wasn't a scheme at all but truly a huge scam, still numbers coming in, but between 750--985 billion baht. Of course there can be no figures for the pain & suicides caused amongst the farming comunity

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/775996-massive-damages-reported-from-the-thai-rice-pledging-scheme/

Others can add to those figures, even though we are already well ahead--but its not just figures, The beaches are being given back to the people, The national parks are being given back to the people. I am no apologist for a military government, but I think most people realize this could not have been done under a democratic government--They would have been tied up in the court system for 10 --20 years, just to have some "dubious" Judge rule on it.

How is the situation at the moment---- A F**king mess, but you don't turn back generation of graft & corruption without a Hugh mess,

.

And who knows maybe they wont even be able to do it, But for the sake of the next generation of Thai kids---- its really really worth a shot.

Edited January 5, 2015 by sanuk711

[DonaldBattles]

Happiness for the rice farmers is 15,000 Baht gift. The other farmers seem not to be worthy of free money as they are in a minority.

Happiness for many families is being able to take care of the bills and educate their children. The private sector is the only place this level of happiness can come from.

The education system here remains poor and happiness might be a real education for poor children not a lot of nonsense. Suppose that every high school graduate could speak, read and write English, do basic math and use computer tools. Would this level of person not be in demand all over the world. Most graduates can do none of these other than play computer games.

[rametindallas]

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% You changed 0.1percent (1/10%) in the OP, to 0.01 percent (1/100%). Typo? democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed. The previous government was trying for a 'reset' also, except their method of resetting was to give pardons to Thaksin and 25,000 political corruption cases stretching back to 2004. The protesters found this was enough cause to take to the streets (and without being paid to as the Red Shirts were in 2010).

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's Nowhere in the article did it mention how well the economy was going for Thais or 'poor' Thais until the Coup of 2006 Nor did it mention the coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97. You must be very good at reading between the lines to surmise all that.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand. FYI, one doesn't have to be a 'Yellow' to dislike the kleptocracy of Thaksin and his puppet governments.

For all the suggestions by the foreign economists to improve Thailand's economy, which of their recommendations did Thaksin implement?

Mr. Thaksin’s signature economic achievement was to encourage consumption among lower-class people and lead the people into a terrible debt burden while making the economy look good (off borrowed money during a world-wide economic expansion) The current government, by contrast, is hobbled by a world-wide recession and the theft of nearly a trillion Baht through the previous government's Rice Support Scheme. The Isthmus of Kraa Canal project is not feasible but the new double-tracked, standard-gauge, freight lines being developed by the current government is a more practical way of improving the overall economy; as is clamping down on corruption.

The whole premise of the article has no base to stand on because the economy was already headed for the tank because Thailand had no real government for half a year before the coup and Suthep's Army was blocking any economic progress/development. It is utterly ridiculous for anyone to blame the current state of the Thai economy on a government that has been in power for only a few months.

The whole premise of your reasoning is the fairy tale of unrelated PDRC and Junta. If you consider that PDRC protests and the Junta are part of the same political movement and that the protests have paved the way for the coup (even Suthep is in agreement with this analysis), then it makes sense to consider that this political movement leading to an unelected assembly and "reform before elections" is responsible for a loss of at least 3% of GDP growth in 2014.

If you consider that PDRC protests and the Junta are part of the same political movement

I don't!

a lot of people do.

There is a history of events and evidence to support the position.

It's not at all unreasonable to take that position.

Arguing the position that the junta and PDRC are not part of the same political faction is significantly more difficult.

a lot of people do.

There is a history of events and evidence to support the position.

It's not at all unreasonable to take that position.

No argument from me on these points.

Arguing the position that the junta and PDRC are not part of the same political faction is significantly more difficult.

Not for me it isn't. While they may be in alignment, where they share some of the same goals, it doesn't necessarily mean they are in cahoots or have conspired with each other. I really can't imagine the military taking advise or instruction from that idiotic low-life, Suthep. The military in Thailand is above politics and above politicians. Have you noticed any examples of favoritism, by the military, towards the Democrat Party?