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Opinion: Thailand and the Coup Trap


george

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Not all suprising that economy tank after a coup. There are enough empirical studies to substantiate that point. This will be no difference. Bond yields are showing the strain and we are finding tough to borrow and we have to turn to China for loans. Domestic economy is hurting bad. Budget spendings are releasing in drips due to bureaucratic red tapes. Investors are cautious and the SET is performing poorly. This one strong man government will only bring despair unless the good general start to loosen up, invite opinions and bring in technocrats to replace current bureaucrats and generals.

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If you consider that PDRC protests and the Junta are part of the same political movement

I don't!

a lot of people do.

There is a history of events and evidence to support the position.

It's not at all unreasonable to take that position.

Arguing the position that the junta and PDRC are not part of the same political faction is significantly more difficult.

a lot of people do.

There is a history of events and evidence to support the position.

It's not at all unreasonable to take that position.

No argument from me on these points.

Arguing the position that the junta and PDRC are not part of the same political faction is significantly more difficult.

Not for me it isn't. While they may be in alignment, where they share some of the same goals, it doesn't necessarily mean they are in cahoots or have conspired with each other. I really can't imagine the military taking advise or instruction from that idiotic low-life, Suthep. The military in Thailand is above politics and above politicians. Have you noticed any examples of favoritism, by the military, towards the Democrat Party?

There's so much I want to say to answer this, but can't. The military is certainly NOT above politics and never have been, they are deeply involved in it. And no, they are not taking orders from Suthep, he's just another lackey in a much larger power play.

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If you consider that PDRC protests and the Junta are part of the same political movement

I don't!

a lot of people do.

There is a history of events and evidence to support the position.

It's not at all unreasonable to take that position.

Arguing the position that the junta and PDRC are not part of the same political faction is significantly more difficult.

rametindallas, much as I hate to admit it, I have to agree with tbthailand on that one point. This coup has been in the works since before or around the time of the Thaksin-sponsored riots of 2010, with the "yellows" (for want of a better term) working hand in hand with their allies in the military.

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What a load of crap. Why do so many "experts" think that government spending is the way to prosperity? Governments are consumers of wealth. Only the private sector can create new wealth. All the government can do is spend money it didn't earn by taking money away from those who earned it via taxes, or spending borrowed money.

Thailand simply needs to make it easier for companies to get established in Thailand, make it possible for people to own 100% of what they invest in, and stop the confiscation of investment money via import taxes on materials and equipment needed to do business. If Thailand want's to continue to prohibit foreigners from owning land, fine. Most big businesses don't want to own their premises. They want to invest in business expansion.

When the clueless like this make these statements, they are in effect recommending that everyone stand in a circle with their hands in each others' pockets so they'll all get rich. They have no clue about what it takes to make it easy to create new wealth to share. (New wealth would be a car built from raw materials, etc.)

lol! you didnt understand a word they wrote.

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I wonder what a civil war would have done for the economy ?

Civil Warcheesy.gif

The sides are so lopsided - tens of millions of citizens against 1 or 2 hundred thousand greedy, blood sucking vampirish elites.

It would have played out so predictably.

Citizens march in the streets - army slaughters 100's of citizens in the streets - people face down the guns and win the day - army banished from power forever and Thailand becomes free at last.

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If you consider that PDRC protests and the Junta are part of the same political movement

I don't!

a lot of people do.

There is a history of events and evidence to support the position.

It's not at all unreasonable to take that position.

Arguing the position that the junta and PDRC are not part of the same political faction is significantly more difficult.

rametindallas, much as I hate to admit it, I have to agree with tbthailand on that one point. This coup has been in the works since before or around the time of the Thaksin-sponsored riots of 2010, with the "yellows" (for want of a better term) working hand in hand with their allies in the military.

I'm making my points according to the limits placed on us by the mods who enforce Thai law. I did not dismiss/denigrate tbthailand's opinion. I just stated, using the information at my disposal and staying within forum rules, that I have a different opinion. It is only my opinion and my opinion, combined with 20 Baht, will get you an iced coffee on the street. I don't believe Suthep and Prayut are co-conspirators. I don't think Prayut would give Suthep the time of day. I have suspicions of other things but they are only suspicions and I will go no farther with this discussion since restrictions make it pointless.

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Spending & handouts is NOT the answer. How about

1. free education to all kids K-12?

2. Govt assist w moving agriculture away from Rice crop to other higher yielding/ profitable crops (Rice in now a long term losing crop!)

3. Offer technical school incentives to capture all the lost potential in grade school.

4. Encourage intl investment with tax incentives to bring in better paying jobs.

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Arguing the position that the junta and PDRC are not part of the same political faction is significantly more difficult.

Not for me it isn't. While they may be in alignment, where they share some of the same goals, it doesn't necessarily mean they are in cahoots or have conspired with each other. I really can't imagine the military taking advise or instruction from that idiotic low-life, Suthep. The military in Thailand is above politics and above politicians. Have you noticed any examples of favoritism, by the military, towards the Democrat Party?

The military is above politics. I am beside myself in fits of roaring laughter, giddiness and bewilderment at this utterly ridiculous and idiotic statement. Not even through the first week of January and we already have a winner for the most ill-informed, outright wrong and not to mention stupidest post of 2015. How can anyone fool think that the Thai military are above politics - the whole region is run by military men and Thailand is no exception. Thai state owned entities are jammed packed full of active and retired Generals collecting multiple government salaries, Thailand has more Generals than the US - again all living off the government tit, oh and don't forget the coups. Coup after coup after coup after coup.......

Thai military is above politicscheesy.gifcheesy.gifclap2.gifclap2.gif

Congratulations on winning multiple awards for <deleted> post of the year.

I'm happy you are so entertained. Still, on only your second post, why be such a rude &lt;deleted&gt; to address me that way?

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I opened this thread, ready to hear whatever interesting opinion was in there.

Then on the fifth line I read this blatant absurdity : 'the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra'.

Well, sorry, but I refuse to read any further.

If paying massively for votes, luring people into voting for you with financial incentives of all kinds, coercing uneducated villagers into voting for you by buying off their village 'heads' (oh the irony of this word) ... is to be deemed consistent with the words 'democratically elected', then let's just say the concept of true democracy is up sh... creek without a paddle.

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Thailand has Democracy..but, the people are conditioned that it is "Ok" for the minority view point to protest/ Shutdown & usher in their buddies, the military. And some reason thais see the military as "Good". I just dont get it. Maybe "Temporary peace & quiet" is more important than one's vote in Thai society. So be it.. but it is sad to see.

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What a load of crap. Why do so many "experts" think that government spending is the way to prosperity? Governments are consumers of wealth. Only the private sector can create new wealth. All the government can do is spend money it didn't earn by taking money away from those who earned it via taxes, or spending borrowed money.

Thailand simply needs to make it easier for companies to get established in Thailand, make it possible for people to own 100% of what they invest in, and stop the confiscation of investment money via import taxes on materials and equipment needed to do business. If Thailand want's to continue to prohibit foreigners from owning land, fine. Most big businesses don't want to own their premises. They want to invest in business expansion.

When the clueless like this make these statements, they are in effect recommending that everyone stand in a circle with their hands in each others' pockets so they'll all get rich. They have no clue about what it takes to make it easy to create new wealth to share. (New wealth would be a car built from raw materials, etc.)

Most of what they talk about is credit not govt spending.

Not that I agree, but changes to things like the minimum wage all contribute to attempt to balance the wealth distribution a little.

Raise the minimum wage. Businesses raise prices to cover the cost of labor. The employee gets the new bigger check and goes to buy something and it costs more. He didn't really get a raise at all, nor was any wealth balanced.

The only way the lot of the employee can be improved is if the employee improves his lot by getting a promotion, more education or some other self-motivated way that begins to set him apart from those on the bottom.

There will always be people on the bottom, especially in countries which pretend to share the wealth. An example is ultra-wealthy Putin vs his people.

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Spending & handouts is NOT the answer. How about

1. free education to all kids K-12?

2. Govt assist w moving agriculture away from Rice crop to other higher yielding/ profitable crops (Rice in now a long term losing crop!)

3. Offer technical school incentives to capture all the lost potential in grade school.

4. Encourage intl investment with tax incentives to bring in better paying jobs.

Thailand just needs a government that will level the playing field for all comers.

Protecting selected industries and am-mart ill gotten fortunes with market defying policies only ends stagnation and economic misery for the nation as a whole.

The sad thing is the am-mart don't care about the nation, they just want to keep what they've stolen even if it means the masses must remain unnecessarily in poverty forever more.

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Arguing the position that the junta and PDRC are not part of the same political faction is significantly more difficult.

Not for me it isn't. While they may be in alignment, where they share some of the same goals, it doesn't necessarily mean they are in cahoots or have conspired with each other. I really can't imagine the military taking advise or instruction from that idiotic low-life, Suthep. The military in Thailand is above politics and above politicians. Have you noticed any examples of favoritism, by the military, towards the Democrat Party?

The military is above politics. I am beside myself in fits of roaring laughter, giddiness and bewilderment at this utterly ridiculous and idiotic statement. Not even through the first week of January and we already have a winner for the most ill-informed, outright wrong and not to mention stupidest post of 2015. How can anyone fool think that the Thai military are above politics - the whole region is run by military men and Thailand is no exception. Thai state owned entities are jammed packed full of active and retired Generals collecting multiple government salaries, Thailand has more Generals than the US - again all living off the government tit, oh and don't forget the coups. Coup after coup after coup after coup.......

Thai military is above politicscheesy.gifcheesy.gifclap2.gifclap2.gif

Congratulations on winning multiple awards for <deleted> post of the year.

I'm happy you are so entertained. Still, on only your second post, why be such a rude <deleted> to address me that way?

Because of the utter bizarreness of the claim that the Thai military is above politics. 3622 posts one not a single clue as to what is going on in Thailand. LM 112 is used by your type to prop up unsupportable illogical propaganda in the face of overwhelming evidence and facts in the knowledge that your falsities can't be debated without threat of imprisonment. But you, even with such a tilted playing field, have gone a bridge too far with the goof of the year - The Thai military are above politics (deserving of more smiley faces - cheesy.gifcheesy.gifclap2.gifclap2.gif )

Edited by AwesomeJohn
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I opened this thread, ready to hear whatever interesting opinion was in there.

Then on the fifth line I read this blatant absurdity : 'the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra'.

Well, sorry, but I refuse to read any further.

If paying massively for votes, luring people into voting for you with financial incentives of all kinds, coercing uneducated villagers into voting for you by buying off their village 'heads' (oh the irony of this word) ... is to be deemed consistent with the words 'democratically elected', then let's just say the concept of true democracy is up sh... creek without a paddle.

Good move. Keeping your head firmly embedded in the sand to avoid hearing the truth or any facts is about the only logical position left for anti-democrats.

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The N.E.S.D.B. reckons that 0.1 percent of Thais own nearly half of the countrys assets.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed.

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's until the Coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand.

It is a pure propaganda piece. Its source, from all places, is an article from The Nation newspaper. The nesdb said .1% or 1% ( i dont remember) own half the value of the Thailand's bank accounts. The nation then conflated that with Thailand's assets, which is what this propaganda piece is using.

The first time this source was used was in the economist and it was further distorted there to assert that .1% owned half thailands wealth.

Its an absolute lie, there is no way an economist can make this mistake, and the fact it has happened twice makes it a pattern of lies.

.

They also use the same line about the usa being a socialist paradiseby comparison in the first article in the economist, in fact the gini coefficient, which is a widely accepted measure of distribution of wealth shows thailand has a better wealth distribution than the usa and most of se asia.

Uttter bs from the nyt, and done on purpose

the original report on the income inequality does reference 'assets' and not bank accounts. Do you have a reference from the NESDB by chance? I don't find anything that could be considered an original source for the Nations's September article.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Richest-0-1own-half-of-nations-assets-30243892.html

In terms of monetary assets, people who have less than Bt10 million in bank accounts represent 99.9 per cent of Thais, but they just over half of the country's wealth (53.5 per cent).

On the other side of the ledger, people with more than Bt10 million in bank accounts make up just 0.1 per cent of the population. But they own 46.5 per cent of national assets when assessed on overall value.

You can see the nation article conflates value of bank deposits with 'national assets' and also wealth. But what do you expect from a schoolboy newspaper like the nation?

For the original economist article u can google 'changing of the garb'

There the original economist article states the top .1% own 20% of the usa's wealth, here it mysteriously becomes assets.

This type of distorted factual representation about thailand can only be done on purpose ie lie.

Or the writers are incompetents in their alleged field of expertise

Edited by longway
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I opened this thread, ready to hear whatever interesting opinion was in there.

Then on the fifth line I read this blatant absurdity : 'the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra'.

Well, sorry, but I refuse to read any further.

If paying massively for votes, luring people into voting for you with financial incentives of all kinds, coercing uneducated villagers into voting for you by buying off their village 'heads' (oh the irony of this word) ... is to be deemed consistent with the words 'democratically elected', then let's just say the concept of true democracy is up sh... creek without a paddle.

those bribes dont influence a damn thing. all parties pay them and the people vote for who they were going to vote for in the first place.

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I opened this thread, ready to hear whatever interesting opinion was in there.

Then on the fifth line I read this blatant absurdity : 'the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra'.

Well, sorry, but I refuse to read any further.

If paying massively for votes, luring people into voting for you with financial incentives of all kinds, coercing uneducated villagers into voting for you by buying off their village 'heads' (oh the irony of this word) ... is to be deemed consistent with the words 'democratically elected', then let's just say the concept of true democracy is up sh... creek without a paddle.

those bribes dont influence a damn thing. all parties pay them and the people vote for who they were going to vote for in the first place.

Excuse me, Sir, but your comment indicates clearly that you haven't a clue on the subject.

1/ Yes, bribes existed in this country long before the Shin clan appeared on the scene, and they were used by all parties. The difference is that the Shin clan brought the practise to a level never attained heretofore.

2/ Direct bribing is one practise (the last I heard from my Esarn friends, a vote was worth THB 500) and surely the oldest one, but the Shins introduced all kinds of other forms, which were both more clever and efficient. It would take too long to go into detail, but they have been described numerous times, in extenso, both here and in the Thai press, so why don't you do some research on the matter ? The rice pledging scheme was of course one of them, and the target was huge in terms of numbers of vote.

3/ Look at how the population is dispatched in this country and you will understand why the Shins focused on Esarn (1/3 of the country's population). A perfect target because they are numerous, poor, have very little academic and/or political education (which makes them more gullible to demagogical promises) and abide by social rules which date back hundreds of years, where village elders are considered like fathers and their opinion is law.

Edited by Yann55
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So Junta bad for economy, but good for the happy few,Thaksin bad for a lot of farang (why I don't know) but good for economy...

If you choose to believe this crap,

Unfortunately, the authors chose to ignore all negative aspects of the various Thaksin controlled administrations and their propensity for lying, cheating, and false accounting.

Looks like some more PR from the Shin Corp team.

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The N.E.S.D.B. reckons that 0.1 percent of Thais own nearly half of the country’s assets.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed.

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's until the Coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand.

I don't claim to be yellow or red. But this article has certainly been written with a pro Shin slant and ignores any and all negatives associated with a government controlled by a fugitive convicted criminal. It ignores the billions of baht unaccounted for in the rice scam, the false accounting and lies regularly spoken by senior figures in the last government and the large amount of serious criminal charges outstanding against Thaksin. (They are too lazy to even research his proper title). They ignore the very important PTP policy of trying to secure an off budget, out of parliament 2.2 trillion baht loan and make no reference to the much publicized Shin family 450% growth in wealth during PTP's time in office whilst billions of tax payers funds are unaccounted for and poor Thais are now even deeper in debt.

Nothing to do with democracy. The Shins wanted a bigger slice of the cake than the elites would allow them, In fact, the Shins wanted it all for themselves. Neither had any thoughts of real democracy or really making things better for the poor people. They certainly don't want to see the poor educated or getting ideas above their station.

The massive backlash against Thasksin's clumsy and arrogant attempts to eradicate his conviction, prison sentence, absconding and 15 outstanding serious criminal charges shows that people are now better informed thanks to social media.

This article is simply a Shin PR release aimed at weakening their opponents. If the Shins were back it power it would be business as usual - nothing gets spent without a Shin pocket being lined - their firms, their relatives, their cronies.

Sadly, there doesn't seem to be any politicians, academics or intellectuals with the will to break this cycle.

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^I guess you failed to notice the article was singularly about economic policies, not 'happiness'. Additionally, the NYT hasn't the time or interest in producing propaganda puff pieces to make the dear leader look good. If you seriously think that this coup was about benefitting the people, you are hopeless.

Of course it wasn't. No more than a Shin government was ever about benefiting the people.

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Too negative. I hope prayuth ban the writer from thailand. He never honor the good think prayuth did, like return happiness to Thai people

Seriously ???, I dont know which Thai people you think are happy now, but it is none of the Thai people I know.

Really? Yet all the ones I know feel happier than before. Usually it because the nightly attacks and killings of any who oppose the Shins has stopped, the removal of blatantly corrupt people such as Tarit and Chalerm from positions of power and the removal of a puppet PM/DM who told many lies, finally one too many.

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The N.E.S.D.B. reckons that 0.1 percent of Thais own nearly half of the country’s assets.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed.

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's until the Coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand.

I don't claim to be yellow or red. But this article has certainly been written with a pro Shin slant and ignores any and all negatives associated with a government controlled by a fugitive convicted criminal. It ignores the billions of baht unaccounted for in the rice scam, the false accounting and lies regularly spoken by senior figures in the last government and the large amount of serious criminal charges outstanding against Thaksin. (They are too lazy to even research his proper title). They ignore the very important PTP policy of trying to secure an off budget, out of parliament 2.2 trillion baht loan and make no reference to the much publicized Shin family 450% growth in wealth during PTP's time in office whilst billions of tax payers funds are unaccounted for and poor Thais are now even deeper in debt.

Nothing to do with democracy. The Shins wanted a bigger slice of the cake than the elites would allow them, In fact, the Shins wanted it all for themselves. Neither had any thoughts of real democracy or really making things better for the poor people. They certainly don't want to see the poor educated or getting ideas above their station.

The massive backlash against Thasksin's clumsy and arrogant attempts to eradicate his conviction, prison sentence, absconding and 15 outstanding serious criminal charges shows that people are now better informed thanks to social media.

This article is simply a Shin PR release aimed at weakening their opponents. If the Shins were back it power it would be business as usual - nothing gets spent without a Shin pocket being lined - their firms, their relatives, their cronies.

Sadly, there doesn't seem to be any politicians, academics or intellectuals with the will to break this cycle.

thats why they ignored those details. they are aware that all parties do this including the military but thailand did better with thaksin than with the present bunch. that fact is something youd rather ignore

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here is a graphic that shows one of the reasons for social disorder in Thailand.

ThailandMap2014.gif

You are actually close to the truth about this conflict for once. Its nothing to do with 'democracy' it is and always has been about the money and how government money gets to be stolen and even more importantly where and by whom.

Its about exploiting real divisions and problems for personal gain.

Your comments show considerably more understanding than the article in the OP.

Probably the most salient comments I've read in a long time. Thank you sir.

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The N.E.S.D.B. reckons that 0.1 percent of Thais own nearly half of the country’s assets.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed.

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's until the Coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand.

I don't claim to be yellow or red. But this article has certainly been written with a pro Shin slant and ignores any and all negatives associated with a government controlled by a fugitive convicted criminal. It ignores the billions of baht unaccounted for in the rice scam, the false accounting and lies regularly spoken by senior figures in the last government and the large amount of serious criminal charges outstanding against Thaksin. (They are too lazy to even research his proper title). They ignore the very important PTP policy of trying to secure an off budget, out of parliament 2.2 trillion baht loan and make no reference to the much publicized Shin family 450% growth in wealth during PTP's time in office whilst billions of tax payers funds are unaccounted for and poor Thais are now even deeper in debt.

Nothing to do with democracy. The Shins wanted a bigger slice of the cake than the elites would allow them, In fact, the Shins wanted it all for themselves. Neither had any thoughts of real democracy or really making things better for the poor people. They certainly don't want to see the poor educated or getting ideas above their station.

The massive backlash against Thasksin's clumsy and arrogant attempts to eradicate his conviction, prison sentence, absconding and 15 outstanding serious criminal charges shows that people are now better informed thanks to social media.

This article is simply a Shin PR release aimed at weakening their opponents. If the Shins were back it power it would be business as usual - nothing gets spent without a Shin pocket being lined - their firms, their relatives, their cronies.

Sadly, there doesn't seem to be any politicians, academics or intellectuals with the will to break this cycle.

thats why they ignored those details. they are aware that all parties do this including the military but thailand did better with thaksin than with the present bunch. that fact is something youd rather ignore

Was that down to Thaksin or a general upswing and downswing in world economics?

The Shin fortune has dramatically increased, that's for sure. If things were going so splendidly why did they run out of cash to pay the farmers - months before any protests about amnesty?

How have the lives of the poor Thais really improved under Thaksin regimes compares to the increase in wealth of the Shin clan and friends during the same period?

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Was that down to Thaksin or a general upswing and downswing in world economics?

The Shin fortune has dramatically increased, that's for sure. If things were going so splendidly why did they run out of cash to pay the farmers - months before any protests about amnesty?

How have the lives of the poor Thais really improved under Thaksin regimes compares to the increase in wealth of the Shin clan and friends during the same period?

the point that you wont acknowlege is that the lives of the poor thais didnt improve as much while the bkk elite increased immensely under the others. and under the present guys its decreased.

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