Opinion: Thailand and the Coup Trap

[thailiketoo]

If the baht was cheaper exports would be greater and tourism would be greater. Tourist dollars are creating new wealth because they come from overseas into the Thai economy and are effected by a multiplier effect https://www.msu.edu/course/prr/840/econimpact/multipliers.htm

Automotive exports are also new wealth because parts are manufactured from the raw materials. Thailand buys the raw steel and stamps or machines the parts. Since 2007, Ford is Thailand’s largest automotive investor, having invested more than 46 billion baht to continually expand its local operations. Overall, Ford is the second largest automaker in the country, with combined investments totaling more than 77 billion baht.

For example, The 200,000 sq. meter plant will employ 2,200 employees and create another 8,800 indirect jobs for regional suppliers and dealers

http://www.pattayamail.com/business/ford-opens-14-billion-baht-assembly-plant-in-rayong-12779

The OP writes, "Some simple, well-known measures could do much immediate good. The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht."

The above is not rocket science. It is easy and could be done tomorrow. Everybody wins except those with large holdings in cash.

[Bob12345]

Was that down to Thaksin or a general upswing and downswing in world economics?

The Shin fortune has dramatically increased, that's for sure. If things were going so splendidly why did they run out of cash to pay the farmers - months before any protests about amnesty?

How have the lives of the poor Thais really improved under Thaksin regimes compares to the increase in wealth of the Shin clan and friends during the same period?

the point that you wont acknowlege is that the lives of the poor thais didnt improve as much while the bkk elite increased immensely under the others. and under the present guys its decreased.

And that is exactly why Taksin is so popular.

Even the farmers know he is corrupt, but he was the first (and only one) to also let the poor farmers get a bit.

Maybe the shins gained 100mln dollar, and the poor farmers 50 mln dollar collectively, but that is better than the elite gaining xx dollar while they gained nothing.

Edited January 5, 2015 by Bob12345

[yellowboat]

Too negative. I hope prayuth ban the writer from thailand. He never honor the good think prayuth did, like return happiness to Thai people

Wow, ban those who disagree with you. It does sound like some in Thailand are not in favor of free speech. They are just far too sensitive.

[longway]

If the baht was cheaper exports would be greater and tourism would be greater. Tourist dollars are creating new wealth because they come from overseas into the Thai economy and are effected by a multiplier effect https://www.msu.edu/course/prr/840/econimpact/multipliers.htm

Automotive exports are also new wealth because parts are manufactured from the raw materials. Thailand buys the raw steel and stamps or machines the parts. Since 2007, Ford is Thailands largest automotive investor, having invested more than 46 billion baht to continually expand its local operations. Overall, Ford is the second largest automaker in the country, with combined investments totaling more than 77 billion baht.

For example, The 200,000 sq. meter plant will employ 2,200 employees and create another 8,800 indirect jobs for regional suppliers and dealers

http://www.pattayamail.com/business/ford-opens-14-billion-baht-assembly-plant-in-rayong-12779

The OP writes, "Some simple, well-known measures could do much immediate good. The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht."

The above is not rocket science. It is easy and could be done tomorrow. Everybody wins except those with large holdings in cash.

Its been done for years; the bot has accumulated massive foreign exchange reserves in their efforts to keep the baht from rising too quickly, it also maintains low interest rates. However it simply does not have the required financial clout for it to make much difference.

You ever noticed the financial disaster originating from the usa in 2008 and the usa continually pumping out billions if not trillions of dollars at close to zero interest for years?

Another example of a deliberately disingenious writing from these pens for hire.

[longway]

If the baht was cheaper exports would be greater and tourism would be greater. Tourist dollars are creating new wealth because they come from overseas into the Thai economy and are effected by a multiplier effect https://www.msu.edu/course/prr/840/econimpact/multipliers.htm

Automotive exports are also new wealth because parts are manufactured from the raw materials. Thailand buys the raw steel and stamps or machines the parts. Since 2007, Ford is Thailands largest automotive investor, having invested more than 46 billion baht to continually expand its local operations. Overall, Ford is the second largest automaker in the country, with combined investments totaling more than 77 billion baht.

For example, The 200,000 sq. meter plant will employ 2,200 employees and create another 8,800 indirect jobs for regional suppliers and dealers

http://www.pattayamail.com/business/ford-opens-14-billion-baht-assembly-plant-in-rayong-12779

The OP writes, "Some simple, well-known measures could do much immediate good. The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht."

The above is not rocket science. It is easy and could be done tomorrow. Everybody wins except those with large holdings in cash.

Its been done for years; the bot has accumulated massive foreign exchange reserves in their efforts to keep the baht from rising too quickly, it also maintains low interest rates. However it simply does not have the required financial clout for it to make much difference.

You ever noticed the financial disaster originating from the usa in 2008 and the usa continually pumping out billions if not trillions of dollars at close to zero interest for years?

Another example of a deliberately disingenious writing from these pens for hire.

[Bob12345]

Excuse me, Sir, but your comment indicates clearly that you haven't a clue on the subject.

(...)

2/ Direct bribing is one practise (the last I heard from my Esarn friends, a vote was worth THB 500) and surely the oldest one, but the Shins introduced all kinds of other forms, which were both more clever and efficient. It would take too long to go into detail, but they have been described numerous times, in extenso, both here and in the Thai press, so why don't you do some research on the matter ? The rice pledging scheme was of course one of them, and the target was huge in terms of numbers of vote.

(...)

Wow, i am impressed by your knowledge of politics.

So you mean that the evil Taksin figured out a system where he will come up with policies that benefit a certain group to get the votes from that group? Like suggesting a rice scheme to get votes from rice farmers?

Isn't that how every political party in the world works? You create policies that favor a group (financially or ideologically) in the hope they vote for you.

[thailiketoo]

If the baht was cheaper exports would be greater and tourism would be greater. Tourist dollars are creating new wealth because they come from overseas into the Thai economy and are effected by a multiplier effect https://www.msu.edu/course/prr/840/econimpact/multipliers.htm

Automotive exports are also new wealth because parts are manufactured from the raw materials. Thailand buys the raw steel and stamps or machines the parts. Since 2007, Ford is Thailands largest automotive investor, having invested more than 46 billion baht to continually expand its local operations. Overall, Ford is the second largest automaker in the country, with combined investments totaling more than 77 billion baht.

For example, The 200,000 sq. meter plant will employ 2,200 employees and create another 8,800 indirect jobs for regional suppliers and dealers

http://www.pattayamail.com/business/ford-opens-14-billion-baht-assembly-plant-in-rayong-12779

The OP writes, "Some simple, well-known measures could do much immediate good. The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht."

The above is not rocket science. It is easy and could be done tomorrow. Everybody wins except those with large holdings in cash.

Its been done for years; the bot has accumulated massive foreign exchange reserves in their efforts to keep the baht from rising too quickly, it also maintains low interest rates. However it simply does not have the required financial clout for it to make much difference.

You ever noticed the financial disaster originating from the usa in 2008 and the usa continually pumping out billions if not trillions of dollars at close to zero interest for years?

Another example of a deliberately disingenious writing from these pens for hire.

Of course the BOT does. This is Thailand it owns the baht and can have as many as it wants. I don't know what you are talking about. It's not like the baht is backed by gold or panties or something.

Buy dollars till the baht goes to 40. Not hard to do. BOT could do it in a week.

Edited January 5, 2015 by thailiketoo

[Bob12345]

If the baht was cheaper exports would be greater and tourism would be greater. Tourist dollars are creating new wealth because they come from overseas into the Thai economy and are effected by a multiplier effect https://www.msu.edu/course/prr/840/econimpact/multipliers.htm

Automotive exports are also new wealth because parts are manufactured from the raw materials. Thailand buys the raw steel and stamps or machines the parts. Since 2007, Ford is Thailands largest automotive investor, having invested more than 46 billion baht to continually expand its local operations. Overall, Ford is the second largest automaker in the country, with combined investments totaling more than 77 billion baht.

For example, The 200,000 sq. meter plant will employ 2,200 employees and create another 8,800 indirect jobs for regional suppliers and dealers

http://www.pattayamail.com/business/ford-opens-14-billion-baht-assembly-plant-in-rayong-12779

The OP writes, "Some simple, well-known measures could do much immediate good. The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht."

The above is not rocket science. It is easy and could be done tomorrow. Everybody wins except those with large holdings in cash.

Its been done for years; the bot has accumulated massive foreign exchange reserves in their efforts to keep the baht from rising too quickly, it also maintains low interest rates. However it simply does not have the required financial clout for it to make much difference.

You ever noticed the financial disaster originating from the usa in 2008 and the usa continually pumping out billions if not trillions of dollars at close to zero interest for years?

Another example of a deliberately disingenious writing from these pens for hire.

What do you mean by "it simply does not have the required financial clout for it to make a difference"?

This is true when a country tries to support its currency; at some point you simply run out of foreign currency and you cannot do anything anymore besides raising the interest rates which will not be helpful.

But devaluation of your currency is simple: just "print" more money. If the US creates trillions of dollars then you print zillions of baht. As long as you have paper and ink you can print money.

The main risk would be (hyper-) inflation as you need to import some of your products, but inflation in Thailand hoovers now around 2% on a yearly basis.

[ThaiUser]

Again most views on this forum are focused on Thailand as if it was a singularity carrying all the ills of the world.

I have spent 6 months in the UK last year to see my family over there and was supposed today to return there for a few months, but that has been delayed for three days giving me the opportunity to read the comments on the TV forum. Some of the arguments I can agree with but most of the commentators have forgotten to take a look that is focused on the global economy and taken it into account.

When I returned to Thailand in 2006 there have been no food banks in Scotland and the amount of people sleeping rough on the streets wasn’t that large as it is today. Last year in Scotland I was shocked about the amount of people that had to go to these food banks relying to get food there for their families.

I have read in some of the comments that only the private sector can create jobs and wealth which would lead to more tax revenues giving a government the means to address the social issues every country has. I don’t believe that this is the fact and looking towards Europe and the tax heavens created for large corporations to avoid paying tax is an insult to the people they lay off work. For these corporations computers and automated production lines are cheaper as manual labour and they have another benefit because they don’t demand weekly or monthly wages but only require one initial investment; leaving more for the people that hold the shares within these corporations.

Looking at the spread of wealth after communism was declared dead in western societies it has become clear that capitalism is now showing its ugly face telling people, like under Mrs Thatcher, to get on their bikes and find a job if they don’t have one. Regrettably there are not enough jobs and I could circumvent this globe on a bike without finding employment. The number of people on a global scale exceeds the amount of available jobs.

The belief that investment into new projects alone will help to bring back prosperity for everyone is an illusion and doesn’t take into account how globalisation works and the way it is understood by the few that hold most of the global wealth. Their bottom line is that if a country becomes less profitable to shift production into another country where labour costs, tax demands and obligations towards the environment more favourable to them; leaving in the countries they have given up on unemployment and human misery behind. They are not interested in solving social and human issues but only look at the accounts and how profitable business is.

Globalisation as far as I understand it takes also into account the lives of the less fortunate and we shouldn’t forget that yearly more children die because of malnutrition as Hitler killed people during his time in the concentration camps. If we can’t see the misery or hear the voices of the less fortunate we have lost our humanity and I fear for my children and grandchildren and their future.

[Cent]

What a load of crap. Why do so many "experts" think that government spending is the way to prosperity? Governments are consumers of wealth. Only the private sector can create new wealth. All the government can do is spend money it didn't earn by taking money away from those who earned it via taxes, or spending borrowed money.

Thailand simply needs to make it easier for companies to get established in Thailand, make it possible for people to own 100% of what they invest in, and stop the confiscation of investment money via import taxes on materials and equipment needed to do business. If Thailand want's to continue to prohibit foreigners from owning land, fine. Most big businesses don't want to own their premises. They want to invest in business expansion.

When the clueless like this make these statements, they are in effect recommending that everyone stand in a circle with their hands in each others' pockets so they'll all get rich. They have no clue about what it takes to make it easy to create new wealth to share. (New wealth would be a car built from raw materials, etc.)

Nonsense. It's not crap. When a government spends the money to add the infrastructure and other amneities needed for the business sector to thrive and the public to be able to get to work in these businesses it helps all. Private enterprises do not spend to build the things necessary to do this. Government does. Government builds the highways and by ways business and private enterpise needs, and buys and employs citizens to drive and maintain the said buses, subways, BTS, airports, etc. etc. Do you think when a preivate enterprise starts their business this stuff just magically appears? Do they pay for the police, fire protection services, and all the other things needed for business to have what they need to do business? No. Government does not consume wealth, but through taxation redistributes the monies needed to have all that you have to go about your business, for citizens and businesses alike.

JMHO.

[Muirton]

What a load of crap. Why do so many "experts" think that government spending is the way to prosperity? Governments are consumers of wealth. Only the private sector can create new wealth. All the government can do is spend money it didn't earn by taking money away from those who earned it via taxes, or spending borrowed money.

Thailand simply needs to make it easier for companies to get established in Thailand, make it possible for people to own 100% of what they invest in, and stop the confiscation of investment money via import taxes on materials and equipment needed to do business. If Thailand want's to continue to prohibit foreigners from owning land, fine. Most big businesses don't want to own their premises. They want to invest in business expansion.

When the clueless like this make these statements, they are in effect recommending that everyone stand in a circle with their hands in each others' pockets so they'll all get rich. They have no clue about what it takes to make it easy to create new wealth to share. (New wealth would be a car built from raw materials, etc.)

Your reaction suggests you love money above all else, in fact there is nothing else. Oh dear.

[Thai at Heart]

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed.

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's until the Coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand.

This is why the coups happen. With this power in the hands of the .01% You changed 0.1percent (1/10%) in the OP, to 0.01 percent (1/100%). Typo? democracy was starting to "rock the boat " too much. The old guard can have this happening so a reset was needed. The previous government was trying for a 'reset' also, except their method of resetting was to give pardons to Thaksin and 25,000 political corruption cases stretching back to 2004. The protesters found this was enough cause to take to the streets (and without being paid to as the Red Shirts were in 2010).

What I took away from the article was that things were going pretty well economically for thai's, even the poor thai's Nowhere in the article did it mention how well the economy was going for Thais or 'poor' Thais until the Coup of 2006 Nor did it mention the coup of 2006 considering the collapse of 97. You must be very good at reading between the lines to surmise all that.

I am guessing the yellows here will take this article as a pure propaganda piece from the international press that don't understand Thailand. FYI, one doesn't have to be a 'Yellow' to dislike the kleptocracy of Thaksin and his puppet governments.

For all the suggestions by the foreign economists to improve Thailand's economy, which of their recommendations did Thaksin implement?

Mr. Thaksins signature economic achievement was to encourage consumption among lower-class people and lead the people into a terrible debt burden while making the economy look good (off borrowed money during a world-wide economic expansion) The current government, by contrast, is hobbled by a world-wide recession and the theft of nearly a trillion Baht through the previous government's Rice Support Scheme. The Isthmus of Kraa Canal project is not feasible but the new double-tracked, standard-gauge, freight lines being developed by the current government is a more practical way of improving the overall economy; as is clamping down on corruption.

The whole premise of the article has no base to stand on because the economy was already headed for the tank because Thailand had no real government for half a year before the coup and Suthep's Army was blocking any economic progress/development. It is utterly ridiculous for anyone to blame the current state of the Thai economy on a government that has been in power for only a few months.

The whole premise of your reasoning is the fairy tale of unrelated PDRC and Junta. If you consider that PDRC protests and the Junta are part of the same political movement and that the protests have paved the way for the coup (even Suthep is in agreement with this analysis), then it makes sense to consider that this political movement leading to an unelected assembly and "reform before elections" is responsible for a loss of at least 3% of GDP growth in 2014.

If you consider that PDRC protests and the Junta are part of the same political movement

I don't!

a lot of people do.

There is a history of events and evidence to support the position.

It's not at all unreasonable to take that position.

Arguing the position that the junta and PDRC are not part of the same political faction is significantly more difficult.

That position can be taken, it just assumes an incredible naivety that prevents someone from joining basic dots of history and recent events.

The protest leaders , the democrats and the army weren't singing from the same song sheet, yeah right.

[thailiketoo]

Again most views on this forum are focused on Thailand as if it was a singularity carrying all the ills of the world.

I have spent 6 months in the UK last year to see my family over there and was supposed today to return there for a few months, but that has been delayed for three days giving me the opportunity to read the comments on the TV forum. Some of the arguments I can agree with but most of the commentators have forgotten to take a look that is focused on the global economy and taken it into account.

This is a Thai forum. Do many people starve to death in Thailand? Because where I live even the soi dogs are well fed.

[Muirton]

What a load of crap. Why do so many "experts" think that government spending is the way to prosperity? Governments are consumers of wealth. Only the private sector can create new wealth. All the government can do is spend money it didn't earn by taking money away from those who earned it via taxes, or spending borrowed money.

Thailand simply needs to make it easier for companies to get established in Thailand, make it possible for people to own 100% of what they invest in, and stop the confiscation of investment money via import taxes on materials and equipment needed to do business. If Thailand want's to continue to prohibit foreigners from owning land, fine. Most big businesses don't want to own their premises. They want to invest in business expansion.

When the clueless like this make these statements, they are in effect recommending that everyone stand in a circle with their hands in each others' pockets so they'll all get rich. They have no clue about what it takes to make it easy to create new wealth to share. (New wealth would be a car built from raw materials, etc.)

I agree with you, NeverSure. The writers of the article are Keynesian economists, which is a failed and severely flawed economic theory. Pure b.s. from the writers of the article.

You right, Keynes wrong. Impressive.

[Thai at Heart]

If the baht was cheaper exports would be greater and tourism would be greater. Tourist dollars are creating new wealth because they come from overseas into the Thai economy and are effected by a multiplier effect https://www.msu.edu/course/prr/840/econimpact/multipliers.htm

Automotive exports are also new wealth because parts are manufactured from the raw materials. Thailand buys the raw steel and stamps or machines the parts. Since 2007, Ford is Thailands largest automotive investor, having invested more than 46 billion baht to continually expand its local operations. Overall, Ford is the second largest automaker in the country, with combined investments totaling more than 77 billion baht.

For example, The 200,000 sq. meter plant will employ 2,200 employees and create another 8,800 indirect jobs for regional suppliers and dealers

http://www.pattayamail.com/business/ford-opens-14-billion-baht-assembly-plant-in-rayong-12779

The OP writes, "Some simple, well-known measures could do much immediate good. The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht."

The above is not rocket science. It is easy and could be done tomorrow. Everybody wins except those with large holdings in cash.

Its been done for years; the bot has accumulated massive foreign exchange reserves in their efforts to keep the baht from rising too quickly, it also maintains low interest rates. However it simply does not have the required financial clout for it to make much difference.

You ever noticed the financial disaster originating from the usa in 2008 and the usa continually pumping out billions if not trillions of dollars at close to zero interest for years?

Another example of a deliberately disingenious writing from these pens for hire.

What do you mean by "it simply does not have the required financial clout for it to make a difference"?

This is true when a country tries to support its currency; at some point you simply run out of foreign currency and you cannot do anything anymore besides raising the interest rates which will not be helpful.

But devaluation of your currency is simple: just "print" more money. If the US creates trillions of dollars then you print zillions of baht. As long as you have paper and ink you can print money.

The main risk would be (hyper-) inflation as you need to import some of your products, but inflation in Thailand hoovers now around 2% on a yearly basis.

well the article did not suggest 'printing more money' did it? and why doesn't simply print more money, you should ask the BOT not me. And the answer probably lies in your post. In any case once the Thailand starts to devalue, won't all the neighboring countries do the same? Its just a 'beggar thy neighbour' policy that will get some short term results but will cause havoc later. whatever the pros and cons its not a 'simple' solution is it?

do you realise much of what is exported is imported first, in raw material and components?

Thailand has ludicrously low interest rates, that are close to zero or even less once you take into account inflation, it buys up huge amounts of dollars every year and now that you find that its doing what this propaganda puff piece for the shins suggests and beyond you shift the goal posts and you want it start printing baht by the boat full to cure all economic ills; dont tell anyone else about your clever plan.

Thailand can't devalue itself to growth unless it devalues a very long way which would cause a 97 crash.

Thailand doesn't have nearly zero interest rates. They can cut if they like. But as you point out, imported raw materials are needed to make the majority of Thai products for export.

The exporters had 29 to the use and they bleqted. Now they have 33 and they can't grow exports. FDI is drying up because of politics and if that stops, one of the most basic drivers of GDP growth goes.

And yet they talk about tightening the FBA.....

They need FDI asap or without it GDP growth will really stagnate.

[Muirton]

I opened this thread, ready to hear whatever interesting opinion was in there.

Then on the fifth line I read this blatant absurdity : 'the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra'.

Well, sorry, but I refuse to read any further.

If paying massively for votes, luring people into voting for you with financial incentives of all kinds, coercing uneducated villagers into voting for you by buying off their village 'heads' (oh the irony of this word) ... is to be deemed consistent with the words 'democratically elected', then let's just say the concept of true democracy is up sh... creek without a paddle.

Buying elections, luring folks, coercing whoever blah, blah, blah Poodle-in-the-microwave alert. Poodle in the microwave alert. Poodle in the microwave alert. All Hands On Deck. The deck of the Thaitanic.

[thailiketoo]

What do you mean by "it simply does not have the required financial clout for it to make a difference"?

This is true when a country tries to support its currency; at some point you simply run out of foreign currency and you cannot do anything anymore besides raising the interest rates which will not be helpful.

But devaluation of your currency is simple: just "print" more money. If the US creates trillions of dollars then you print zillions of baht. As long as you have paper and ink you can print money.

The main risk would be (hyper-) inflation as you need to import some of your products, but inflation in Thailand hoovers now around 2% on a yearly basis.

well the article did not suggest 'printing more money' did it?

Translation OP, "Some simple, well-known measures could do much immediate good. The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht" = Print money.

[thailiketoo]

do you realise much of what is exported is imported first, in raw material and components?

Cost one ton imported cold rolled steel 57,000 baht. Price of exported Mercedes 15,000,000 baht. The difference is new money brought into Thailand.

Prices are estimates but I'm sure you get the idea.

[thailiketoo]

What do you mean by "it simply does not have the required financial clout for it to make a difference"?

This is true when a country tries to support its currency; at some point you simply run out of foreign currency and you cannot do anything anymore besides raising the interest rates which will not be helpful.

But devaluation of your currency is simple: just "print" more money. If the US creates trillions of dollars then you print zillions of baht. As long as you have paper and ink you can print money.

The main risk would be (hyper-) inflation as you need to import some of your products, but inflation in Thailand hoovers now around 2% on a yearly basis.

well the article did not suggest 'printing more money' did it?

Translation OP, "Some simple, well-known measures could do much immediate good. The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht" = Print money.

No it doesn't nitwit. It raises bonds. and it does it is massive quantities already. how much many billions of dollars can it buy? can it print 'zillions of baht' as suggested by your economic guru bob12345?

The OP is suggesting lowering the value of the baht, "The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht" Drive down the baht = lowering the value of the baht. How do you lower the value of the baht?

[longway]

do you realise much of what is exported is imported first, in raw material and components?

Cost one ton imported cold rolled steel 57,000 baht. Price of exported Mercedes 15,000,000 baht. The difference is new money brought into Thailand.

Prices are estimates but I'm sure you get the idea.

ok ok let thailand just print 'zillions of baht' and all will be well. the buddha of economics bob12345 and his followers say it is so and so it must be so, and so on.

[longway]

well the article did not suggest 'printing more money' did it?

Translation OP, "Some simple, well-known measures could do much immediate good. The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht" = Print money.

No it doesn't nitwit. It raises bonds. and it does it is massive quantities already. how much many billions of dollars can it buy? can it print 'zillions of baht' as suggested by your economic guru bob12345?

The OP is suggesting lowering the value of the baht, "The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht" Drive down the baht = lowering the value of the baht. How do you lower the value of the baht?

and there we have it the zenith of red shirt intelligence for all to see. the amart they bad; thaksin he genius. you've convinced me.

[thailiketoo]

A poster said the BOT should devalue the currency, you reacted that the BOT didnt have the clout to do that.

I asked you to explain that part.

And your answer is to call the BOT to ask them? What should i ask exactly? "Some poster on thaivisa said you guys have not enough clout to devalue the baht, could you please explain why he said that?"

(If your had decent arguments you wouldn't have to use the word you ended with)

im sorry i wasnt going to be rude to you, but in the end my bad side got the better of me, forums bring the worst out in people. honestly do you really believe thailand can just 'print zillions of baht' into economic prosperity?

There is a sweet spot (baht vs dollar) where the profit (units sold) is maximized. The OP is suggesting it is not 32. Maybe the OP is suggesting it is 35 I don't know because the OP does not say. One way to move the baht down in value is to buy dollars. Will tourism increase if the baht goes down vs the dollar and pound? Sure. What is the best ratio of value baht vs dollar to produce the most rooms sold in hotels? I don't know but I suspect it is closer to 40 than 30.

[Thai at Heart]

What do you mean by "it simply does not have the required financial clout for it to make a difference"?

This is true when a country tries to support its currency; at some point you simply run out of foreign currency and you cannot do anything anymore besides raising the interest rates which will not be helpful.

But devaluation of your currency is simple: just "print" more money. If the US creates trillions of dollars then you print zillions of baht. As long as you have paper and ink you can print money.

The main risk would be (hyper-) inflation as you need to import some of your products, but inflation in Thailand hoovers now around 2% on a yearly basis.

well the article did not suggest 'printing more money' did it?

Translation OP, "Some simple, well-known measures could do much immediate good. The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht" = Print money.

No it doesn't nitwit. It raises bonds. and it does it is massive quantities already. how much many billions of dollars can it buy? can it print 'zillions of baht' as suggested by your economic guru bob12345?

How many billion per month has the USA been printing? Plenty although the monthly stimulus escapes my memory.

They couldn't run the presses quickly enough to keep up.

[thailiketoo]

No it doesn't nitwit. It raises bonds. and it does it is massive quantities already. how much many billions of dollars can it buy? can it print 'zillions of baht' as suggested by your economic guru bob12345?

The OP is suggesting lowering the value of the baht, "The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht" Drive down the baht = lowering the value of the baht. How do you lower the value of the baht?

and there we have it the zenith of red shirt intelligence for all to see. the amart they bad; thaksin he genius. you've convinced me.

There were significantly more tourists coming to Thailand from those countries that have dollars when the baht was 40 plus to the dollar. Yes or No? Who did that help? Anyone working in the tourism industry and anyone who paid taxes in the tourism industry. Who made money when the baht gained in strength? Anyone who held large amounts of Thai Baht in cash. How much rice gets exported at 30 baht per dollar as opposed to 40 baht per dollar? Not as much. Most exported commodities are price sensitive. Would a farmer rather sell more rice for less profit or less rice for more profit? You figure it out.

[metisdead]

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[ThaiUser]

Again most views on this forum are focused on Thailand as if it was a singularity carrying all the ills of the world.

I have spent 6 months in the UK last year to see my family over there and was supposed today to return there for a few months, but that has been delayed for three days giving me the opportunity to read the comments on the TV forum. Some of the arguments I can agree with but most of the commentators have forgotten to take a look that is focused on the global economy and taken it into account.

This is a Thai forum. Do many people starve to death in Thailand? Because where I live even the soi dogs are well fed.

It might be a Thai forum but that doesn’t stop you or your friends to give such expertise advice, despite the fact that your own countries are not really in a state that could be looked upon as an example for us.

Maybe you should direct your inside into the economy towards your embassies and they I am sure will pass it on to your governments that seem to desperately waiting for the advice you offer Thailand for free. Maybe sorting out your countries might help less fortunate countries too.

As far as I am concerned the problems addressed here are not Thai specific but apply to most countries in our age and it is worthwhile pointing that out or your view that only Thailand is affected might prevail.

[timendres]

What a load of crap. Why do so many "experts" think that government spending is the way to prosperity? Governments are consumers of wealth. Only the private sector can create new wealth. All the government can do is spend money it didn't earn by taking money away from those who earned it via taxes, or spending borrowed money.

Thailand simply needs to make it easier for companies to get established in Thailand, make it possible for people to own 100% of what they invest in, and stop the confiscation of investment money via import taxes on materials and equipment needed to do business. If Thailand want's to continue to prohibit foreigners from owning land, fine. Most big businesses don't want to own their premises. They want to invest in business expansion.

When the clueless like this make these statements, they are in effect recommending that everyone stand in a circle with their hands in each others' pockets so they'll all get rich. They have no clue about what it takes to make it easy to create new wealth to share. (New wealth would be a car built from raw materials, etc.)

I agree 100% that governments should stand aside let the private sector create wealth and prosperity. However the article does make one good point, and suggests action for which the government does play a proper role -- infrastructure that promotes the private sector. When they mention a possible canal with two ports that would promote commerce, this is a role meant for the government.

One of the greatest investments of the US Government was building the interstate highway system. This infrastructure could not have been achieved by the private sector, and it transformed the country. Yes, it's original intent was to provide a transport system for nuclear weapons, which in retrospect seems insane, but the result was brilliant.

The best form of government is the one that stands aside and allows the citizens to go about the business of improving their own lives, then only attempts to assist in the narrow avenues which are difficult or impossible for the private sector to manage.

[thailiketoo]

Again most views on this forum are focused on Thailand as if it was a singularity carrying all the ills of the world.

I have spent 6 months in the UK last year to see my family over there and was supposed today to return there for a few months, but that has been delayed for three days giving me the opportunity to read the comments on the TV forum. Some of the arguments I can agree with but most of the commentators have forgotten to take a look that is focused on the global economy and taken it into account.

This is a Thai forum. Do many people starve to death in Thailand? Because where I live even the soi dogs are well fed.

It might be a Thai forum but that doesn’t stop you or your friends to give such expertise advice, despite the fact that your own countries are not really in a state that could be looked upon as an example for us.

Maybe you should direct your inside into the economy towards your embassies and they I am sure will pass it on to your governments that seem to desperately waiting for the advice you offer Thailand for free. Maybe sorting out your countries might help less fortunate countries too.

As far as I am concerned the problems addressed here are not Thai specific but apply to most countries in our age and it is worthwhile pointing that out or your view that only Thailand is affected might prevail.

If you look at the forum index you will see other parts of the forum to address other parts of the world. We are not being impolite we are following the posting rules of Thai Visa. If it is not Thai related it does not belong in this the General forum. There are other Thai Visa forums for other parts of the world and other parts of South East Asia. Did you go to school in Thailand or someplace else?

[ThaiUser]

What a load of crap. Why do so many "experts" think that government spending is the way to prosperity? Governments are consumers of wealth. Only the private sector can create new wealth. All the government can do is spend money it didn't earn by taking money away from those who earned it via taxes, or spending borrowed money.

Thailand simply needs to make it easier for companies to get established in Thailand, make it possible for people to own 100% of what they invest in, and stop the confiscation of investment money via import taxes on materials and equipment needed to do business. If Thailand want's to continue to prohibit foreigners from owning land, fine. Most big businesses don't want to own their premises. They want to invest in business expansion.

When the clueless like this make these statements, they are in effect recommending that everyone stand in a circle with their hands in each others' pockets so they'll all get rich. They have no clue about what it takes to make it easy to create new wealth to share. (New wealth would be a car built from raw materials, etc.)

I agree 100% that governments should stand aside let the private sector create wealth and prosperity. However the article does make one good point, and suggests action for which the government does play a proper role -- infrastructure that promotes the private sector. When they mention a possible canal with two ports that would promote commerce, this is a role meant for the government.

One of the greatest investments of the US Government was building the interstate highway system. This infrastructure could not have been achieved by the private sector, and it transformed the country. Yes, it's original intent was to provide a transport system for nuclear weapons, which in retrospect seems insane, but the result was brilliant.

The best form of government is the one that stands aside and allows the citizens to go about the business of improving their own lives, then only attempts to assist in the narrow avenues which are difficult or impossible for the private sector to manage.

Certainly I disagree with you since governments in the West stood aside and let the private sector get on with creating wealth and prosperity after communism diminished.

Since the late 90’s they have drifted from one crisis to the next with net income for the general populations declining and the wealth of the few dramatically increasing. Even the crises caused by the bankers didn’t reverse that trend.

Today the election campaign in Britain went on its way and maybe you might read what Labour and Tories have to say about the state of the economy and how far government should stay away.

[Bob12345]

well the article did not suggest 'printing more money' did it?

Translation OP, "Some simple, well-known measures could do much immediate good. The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht" = Print money.

No it doesn't nitwit. It raises bonds. and it does it is massive quantities already. how much many billions of dollars can it buy? can it print 'zillions of baht' as suggested by your economic guru bob12345?

The OP is suggesting lowering the value of the baht, "The central bank could spur stagnating exports and tourism by buying U.S. dollars to drive down the baht" Drive down the baht = lowering the value of the baht. How do you lower the value of the baht?

and there we have it the zenith of red shirt intelligence for all to see. the amart they bad; thaksin he genius. you've convinced me.

Maybe you should take a small break from posting as your posts are becoming less coherent by the minute.

You are not making any sense anymore at this point.