Charter will be a key test for Thai govt: experts

[webfact]

Charter will be a key test for govt: experts
Pravit Rojanaphruk,
Nitipol Kiravanich
The Nation

Managing the economy could also be vital in government's survival, along with opportunities for dissent

BANGKOK: -- Experts say there are several possible flashpoints for conflict this year, with many agreeing that the key issues will be if the public finds the new charter acceptable, plus continued infringement on civil liberties under martial law, the state of the economy and more.

Ekaphan Pinthawanij, Mahidol University peace and human rights expert, said the debate over the new charter was crucial, as it could re-ignite a new round of conflict, over and above the ongoing crackdown on dissent.

"How democratic will the next charter be in terms of the political and administrative structure? What rights and liberties will be granted to the public under the new charter? If people's rights and liberties continue to be curtailed, it will lead to opposition and that's worrying," said Ekaphan, who is a lecturer at the university's Institute for Human Rights and Peace Studies.

The electoral system and how the executive branch is selected, especially in relation to the prime minister, are contentious issues that could unleash a new round of political conflict, he warned.

And if freedom of expression, including academic and press freedom, as well freedom to political dissent continued being curbed, it would likely exacerbate things this year.

The conflict in the deep South also needed to be handled clearly, otherwise there would never be peace, Ekaphan predicted.

Trakoon Meechai, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, also believed the outlook of the new constitution could be a flashpoint of possible conflict, along with when the next election will be held.

He said the honeymoon period for the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration was over and the state of the economy could further ignite discord, in addition to the many court cases filed against leading members of the Yingluck Shinawatra government.

Meanwhile, political scientist Sirote Klampaiboon believed Thailand would now face bigger issues compared to previous coups owing to debate over the political system under the new charter, such as the prime minister's authority and jurisdiction.

"Within 2015, the political system should become clearer, including the authority of the prime minister. That will become an issue for the country again," Sirote said.

He explained that perceptions about the PM's authority differed between two groups of people - one side believes the prime minister should have the authority as expected in a normal democracy, while the other group is trying to design a new system that limits the PM's authority.

"The military has more power now than those who staged coups in the past," he noted.

In 2006, the coupmakers and the premier did not come from the same team, while the current administration is more or less the same group of people. Sirote also predicts that the military will try to normalise its power over politics.

He said it was very difficult to scrutinise the executive branch as well as impeach those in power. For instance, if there were a case against Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha - impeaching him would be next to impossible. The new charter, he said, could suffer the same dilemma, as it cannot be amended easily like the 2007 charter.

"The government and the National Council for Peace and Order [NCPO] are trying to be neutral [towards conflicting sides]. At the same time, they appointed the National Legislative Assembly [NLA] and the National Reform Council [NRC], which is making some people feel that the NCPO isn't neutral," Sirote said.

He pointed out that many members of these bodies were affiliated to the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and those who opposed the February 2 election.

Sirote predicts that the junta will appear more partial, as their stance will be made visible in the new charter, which will neglect opposing ideas, thus causing national problems later.

Attasit Pankaew, a political scientist at Thammasat University, said the real challenge is for the NCPO to decide how much space they will allow for dissent.

"There should be more opportunity for talks as there was a youth forum [organised by the Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC)] that allowed people with conflicting ideas to express themselves," Attasit said, adding that even then, no coup opponents participated.

As for the new constitution, Attasit's view is similar to that of Sirote's - if the new charter does not reflect the will of the people and is endorsed by them, then it could lead to problems.

"Drafting a charter without including conflicting ideas or allowing those against the coup to participate and getting their approval would create more political disputes," he said.

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva yesterday warned that the Prayut regime might not survive if conflicts from charter writing and impeachment of key politicians intensified plus if it failed to lift the economy out of the doldrums this year.

Abhisit said the government had failed to stimulate the economy because of plunging prices of agricultural produce and energy policies that do not reflect the low oil prices.

He had earlier called on the government to drop fuel prices to increase purchasing power to take advantage of the global oil price fall.

If the economy did not pick this year, the government and National Council for Peace and Order would be under pressure.

Two political issues threatening the government's survival were the impeachment of key people in the previous government, plus the charter draft and reform. He said if the Prayut administration would face negative repercussions if it decides against holding public referendum for the charter draft.

"The charter may lead to social and political conflicts, which are not what the objectives of the NCPO,'' he said.

Panitan Wattanayagorn, an adviser to deputy prime minister for security affairs, predicted the content of the new charter and an economic downturn could rock Prayut's administration this year.

"If most of the public is satisfied when the constitution is unveiled, then the government can continue. But the biggest problem will be people's livelihood. If the public has confidence in the economy and the overall [economic] situation improves, then it will automatically benefit the country's outlook.

Panitan said although the global economic forecast is not bright, people would know that was a factor. But there were ways the government could handle this by becoming proactive - citing mega-projects, basic infrastructure and tax structure as vital ways to shore up public confidence this year.

He said a solid economy that included strong purchasing power would be crucial to ensuring political stability.

"Ensuring political stability requires addressing the problem of purchasing power. If the economy is good, the pressure on the government will be reduced. So far, the government has done something, such as raising low-ranking officials' salaries, but they need to do other things in the remaining period [that they are in power]."

But Panitan believed the political outlook would continue looking good, saying people don't want to see more street protests. He said the issue of whether or not there would be a referendum on the new charter would also be a key factor this year. To make the new charter accepted by all sides, it would require allowing people to express themselves through institutions such as the National Reform Council (NRC).

He also called on the government to open spaces for those in the agricultural sector to air their grievances and ensure that dissent in politics and economy do not merge.

On the international front, Panitan said the coup steered Thailand into forging closer economic and military ties with China after the US and Europe downgraded its relations with Thailand. China, Panitan said, would embark on joint military exercises with Thailand and that both China and Japan were eyeing opportunities to build rail lines here.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Charter-will-be-a-key-test-for-govt-experts-30251179.html


-- The Nation 2015-01-05

[billd766]

<deleted> is a "political scientist" and what does it actually do for a living in the real world?

[metisdead]

Once again for some members who cannot seem to remember:

Please use discretion in your references to the government. Phrases which can be considered as anti-coup will be removed. Referring to Thailand or the government as a dictatorship, military dictatorship or other such terms will be removed.

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Posters violating these rules, and the forum rules will receive a warning, a possible suspension of posting privileges or a ban from the site.

[rickirs]

"The charter may lead to social and political conflicts,"

Such is the nature of participatory democracy.

"which are not what the objectives of the NCPO,''

Oops.

[Thai at Heart]

As statements go this really is stating the obvious.

Beyond that, what is going to happen if no one likes the charter? Or if everyone lies that they like it, PTP wins and they try to change it?

Groundhog day all over again, undoubtedly.

[Thai at Heart]

As statements go this really is stating the obvious.

Beyond that, what is going to happen if no one likes the charter? Or if everyone lies that they like it, PTP wins and they try to change it?

Groundhog day all over again, undoubtedly.