Has the condo discount festival started ?

[fosseway]

10 years ago studios at View Talay Jomtien were 400,000 as advertised in weekly With compound interest formula : now = principle ( 1+%)^{n (years).}

Today with 3% inflation : 400,000 (1.03)¹⁰ = 537,566 baht

I would be very interested in buying View Talay studios in Jomtien at around Baht 500K each.

I think they are advertised between 800K, for the very cheapest, low floor low spec.unit, up to Baht 1,500,000 for higher floors and specs.

Please let me know where to find these cheap units.

I do not own any units in these buildings, but at these prices I would certainly like to get involved in flipping them.

My example is just what 3% inflation says that studio would be today , not the going price. This just could mean that they are overpriced now and per topic may be coming down in the next year.

[fosseway]

I will look forward to the contact numbers of agents that have View Talay studios for sale around the 500K mark as per my last post. I will take a chance that they will be Quote. Coming down in the next year. Unquote.

I do remember the gossip of the 90s was that " Mr Viewtalays" net build cost for a bare shell unit was about 10K per s.m. ( unbelievably cheap) So a 40 s.m. unit would have cost him 400K, I am guessing that the plan unit price at that time would have been around 15K per s.m.

In my last post I said todays price ranged from 800K to 1.5 Million, balo seems to estimate 1.2 to 1.5 Million, but I suppose this very much depends on if you are buying or selling.

[balo]

Unfortunately , even if we find a potential buyer , pictures like these will not help to sell.

This is outside taken in the area not too far away and you have to drive past it every day . Nobody seems to care.

[KittenKong]

I will look forward to the contact numbers of agents that have View Talay studios for sale around the 500K mark as per my last post. I will take a chance that they will be Quote. Coming down in the next year. Unquote.

I do remember the gossip of the 90s was that " Mr Viewtalays" net build cost for a bare shell unit was about 10K per s.m. ( unbelievably cheap) So a 40 s.m. unit would have cost him 400K, I am guessing that the plan unit price at that time would have been around 15K per s.m.

You have to bear in mind that VT units were (and still are) sold as shells. The finishing costs are "up to you" as the saying goes. But to get anything decent you need to pay quite a lot.

The new developers make money by selling fully finished units that look good but are built of cheap crap that will fall apart in no time.

[morrobay]

10 years ago studios at View Talay Jomtien were 400,000 as advertised in weekly With compound interest formula : now = principle ( 1+%)^{n (years).}

Today with 3% inflation : 400,000 (1.03)¹⁰ = 537,566 baht

I would be very interested in buying View Talay studios in Jomtien at around Baht 500K each.

I think they are advertised between 800K, for the very cheapest, low floor low spec.unit, up to Baht 1,500,000 for higher floors and specs.

Please let me know where to find these cheap units.

I do not own any units in these buildings, but at these prices I would certainly like to get involved in flipping them.

My example is just what 3% inflation says that studio would be today , not the going price. This just could mean that they are overpriced now and per topic may be coming down in the next year.

3% inflation is not realistic considering land costs, material and even labor increases (minimum wages) over the last 10 years.

OK lets double that to 6%. Then that is 1.06 raised to the tenth, (1.06)¹⁰ = 1.74 times 400,000 = 716,335 baht. ( and these were upper units with view.)

But these units today are going for about 1.25. So to get that per inflation would have to be 12% : (1.12)¹⁰ = 3.18 times 400,000 = 1,242,339

Edited January 21, 2015 by morrobay

[KittenKong]

OK lets double that to 6%. Then that is 1.06 raised to the tenth, (1.06)¹⁰ = 1.74 times 400,000 = 716,335 baht. ( and these were upper units with view.)

But these units today are going for about 1.25. So to get that per inflation would have to be 12% : (1.12)¹⁰ = 3.18 times 400,000 = 1,242,339

Are you taking the original fit-out costs into account? New VT units are sold as concrete shells and still have to be entirely fitted out (floor and wall tiles, suspended ceiling, bathroom, kitchen, electrics, fitted cupboards/wardrobes, plumbing, painting etc.) and then you have to add the cost of furniture as most resales are furnished, some quite well.

[morrobay]

Thats why its best to buy directly from a foreigner where these units ( anywhere) can be completely finished +.

[mike2011]

I appreciate all these calculations about the value/price of condo over the years. Still, no matter how good the data and formula is it omits critical aspects.

In 2004/5 Pattaya still had some green spots. Beachroad was not a concrete wall but had trees and some empty lots. The sea-breeze reached areas further inland. Today it hardly does so. Traffic was much less. No need to get into demographics, we all know it.

In other words, today the condo is located in a very much degraded environment with heavy air and noise pollution. i remember times when it was almost sensational when a foreigner was attacked. It was news, now it is like a daily soap opera. Crime has risen likewise. In sum, not just the condos got older, the whole place did.

[fosseway]

Thats why its best to buy directly from a foreigner where these units ( anywhere) can be completely finished +.

It very much depends what the foreigners expertise is, were they a doctor,school teacher, accountant, or a milkman in a former life.

I have seen some unbelievably bad work carried out here on "finishing" bare shell units, usually carried out by former rice farmers, ( No offense to them here) with or without the supervision of the above. One of the worst examples I have ever seen, was in the early days of VT 5 when the owner of a shell unit, a retired school teacher, wanted to move his toilet position by about 2 meters , he just channeled through the some 150mm thick concrete floor section, plus the reinforcing to accommodate the 100mm drain. I was shown this by a friend and concerned neibour, he said that nobody from management came to check these things.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Thats why its best to buy directly from a foreigner where these units ( anywhere) can be completely finished +.

I would never buy property of any sort from a foreigner in Thailand, they pay way over the going rate for everything.

And then think that original inflated price should make them a profit when they sell.

[morrobay]

I appreciate all these calculations about the value/price of condo over the years. Still, no matter how good the data and formula is it omits critical aspects.

In 2004/5 Pattaya still had some green spots. Beachroad was not a concrete wall but had trees and some empty lots. The sea-breeze reached areas further inland. Today it hardly does so. Traffic was much less. No need to get into demographics, we all know it.

In other words, today the condo is located in a very much degraded environment with heavy air and noise pollution. i remember times when it was almost sensational when a foreigner was attacked. It was news, now it is like a daily soap opera. Crime has risen likewise. In sum, not just the condos got older, the whole place did.

Thats right the quality of life in Pattaya has really gone downhill. You would expect a discount factor coming into effect.

Thats why the developers are looking at the domestic market now. Since the Thais are oblivious to their environment.

Anyway there is a long list of confluent events coming into play.

Edited January 22, 2015 by morrobay

[balo]

Thats why its best to buy directly from a foreigner where these units ( anywhere) can be completely finished +.

I would never buy property of any sort from a foreigner in Thailand, they pay way over the going rate for everything.

And then think that original inflated price should make them a profit when they sell.

You don't know much about the condo market here in Pattaya do you ? Look what the Thais do , they buy cheap off plan and try to make a profit , and even if the market is slow they do not try to reduce their prices, they just keep the condo until some idiot comes along.

I have reduced my price lower than what the Thais paid for it. At least I'm trying to follow the market and accept a loss.

[morrobay]

To answer the OP : No it has not started. Just for the heck of it I checked on a studio (small hotel room with balcony and ok view) at a condotel on Soi 7, Jomtien. Finished room for 1.5

And I dont know about all those outside bars/restaurants on Soi 7 filled with single men smoking cigarettes all day either.

[BernieOnTour]

....

The new developers make money by selling fully finished units that look good but are built of cheap crap that will fall apart in no time.

Exactly.

October to November, I checked out 6 1BR condos, as I was unsure in which area to stay and which condo to rent. So I used AirBnB and the like to stay in each condo for 5-7 days, covering Jomtien, Pratamnak, South Pattaya.

Especially the newer ones looked really nice on first sight, but taking a second look, you could see the flaws. Starting with bad tiling, over obvious construction flaws, to showing wear and tear in 1-2 year old buildings on everything made from wood. Communal areas often neglected (outstanding maintenance fees?).

One of the most interesting ones was the new Atlantis. On first sight really beautiful with a great "water landscape". The block, I was staying in, was not fully fitted out. Thin walls, so you could hear the hammering of the "tilers" 2 floors below. Bad paint jobs on the not so visible parts of the building, sometimes already showing brown streaks of rusting iron from the concrete. I bet, the furniture will not survive more than 2 years rental and the owners have to replace it. Nice design on the floorways, but prone to staining. It was really fun to go downstairs and watch the craftsmen. The majority of the "craftsmen" were Burmese, (-directly from the rice field?-) not supervised by foremen, I would really like to see their first units in the Atlantis, where they still trained for the job...

Finally, looking for a rental via an agent recommended to me, I was shown a brand new condo near Mind Resort behind 3rd road, still advertising for 2.5 Mil. The condo was "nearly" finished, they were still fitting the furniture - I have never seen such a hit and run carpenter job before (not talking about the bad wood quality). Side remark: agent was asking for 23k for a 6 months contract, however: I could also have gotten another unit from a "friend" of him at 18k, 1 month minimum rental ....

[BernieOnTour]

Another observation:

In middle and northern Europe, architects tend to orientate balconies and verandas to the south or southwest to get the most of the sunlight. Many of the buildings, I have seen here, tend to orientate the building so they get the maximum out of the plot, often also orientating balconies to the south. A considerable number of these balconies are also "hanging" free in front of the building.

Really great! As if they never lived in the tropics... On sunny days, you are barbecued like a chicken on the balcony, in raining season, you are flooded away by the rain. And with the sun constantly burning on your stylish, big windows, your electricity bill for the aircon will make you poor.

[tontraveller]

....

The new developers make money by selling fully finished units that look good but are built of cheap crap that will fall apart in no time.

Exactly.

October to November, I checked out 6 1BR condos, as I was unsure in which area to stay and which condo to rent. So I used AirBnB and the like to stay in each condo for 5-7 days, covering Jomtien, Pratamnak, South Pattaya.

Especially the newer ones looked really nice on first sight, but taking a second look, you could see the flaws. Starting with bad tiling, over obvious construction flaws, to showing wear and tear in 1-2 year old buildings on everything made from wood. Communal areas often neglected (outstanding maintenance fees?).

One of the most interesting ones was the new Atlantis. On first sight really beautiful with a great "water landscape". The block, I was staying in, was not fully fitted out. Thin walls, so you could hear the hammering of the "tilers" 2 floors below. Bad paint jobs on the not so visible parts of the building, sometimes already showing brown streaks of rusting iron from the concrete. I bet, the furniture will not survive more than 2 years rental and the owners have to replace it. Nice design on the floorways, but prone to staining. It was really fun to go downstairs and watch the craftsmen. The majority of the "craftsmen" were Burmese, (-directly from the rice field?-) not supervised by foremen, I would really like to see their first units in the Atlantis, where they still trained for the job...

Finally, looking for a rental via an agent recommended to me, I was shown a brand new condo near Mind Resort behind 3rd road, still advertising for 2.5 Mil. The condo was "nearly" finished, they were still fitting the furniture - I have never seen such a hit and run carpenter job before (not talking about the bad wood quality). Side remark: agent was asking for 23k for a 6 months contract, however: I could also have gotten another unit from a "friend" of him at 18k, 1 month minimum rental ....

Should be used as a warning to off plan buyers.

After moving in, co-owners and committee has to pay the price for improvements ,corrections.repairing.

And they can only hope that for all units, maintenance fee is paid annually.

Best thing if you want to buy with less risk, is to look at somewhat older projects like Grand Condotel, Jomtien Complex, Chateaudale complex.

These were build when good quality was more important then cheap prices.

[loppylugs1]

Liked the one of the promotional videos few years ago of Suwan Suwarn.

Guy with camera,positioned probably on a scooter taping the approach to this magnificent wonder , in what is now a gated community . Really nice approach until horror of horrors the biggest load of crap on earth unveiled itself. At this point the camera itself should have given up,exploded or something like,however on it continued to an opening door of an apartment to enter a stamp sized micro apartment,the camera hovering on the cheapest of cheap MFI inspired single drainer sink unit falling apart crap,and it hovered and hovered, the units door opening,closing, opening ,closing,looking at the hinges etc,just kept filming the sink unit as if that was all that was up for purchase ,probably was the most expensive piece in the purchase price of the apartment,.gees never have I witnessed such a shocking piece promotional material.

At that moment I believe the camera did give up, as an individual and a camera together would not fit into the space of the apartment

[mike2011]

The off-plan promotions remind of the old time(crime) share scams on beach rd. You got a 'free' songtaew ride to Jomtien after you had won big time something in a lucky draw on the beach. Only condition listen to an hour or more BS from some promotional guy. You might get some cold deep fry chicken pieces on the side though.

They offered 5star PLUS units for 2 weeks a year against a hefty sum. Incidentally the place was rather cheap to rent for 2 weeks anyhow if you dared to inquire by yourself. Camp Gitmo on Cuba was probably somewhat nicer looking. Minimal size units behind high walls, the swimming pool smaller than a bathtub.

In the 5starplus units plastic furniture. The door handles etc aluminum panted to look like solid metal. On top of that their lawyer would read you the contract. I was just curious to get hold of a copy. no way.

Perhaps the condo developers saw how these guys got away with it and what kind of crap was put into these units. I had nothing to do with quality. The other issue was pollution. The furniture was of the cheapest kind and made Index look like a RR car dealership. it must have been a special effort to find such junk, probably China. Pressed recycled materials with plastic clued on supposedly being solid wood. Formaldehyd was surely just one of the chemicals residents were to enjoy.

From that perspective the empty chell offers are somewhat positive, at least you choose not only the color but also the sort of paint.

What I also like about older condos is that you not only see how the place is managed, if it is, and how the building keeps up. It is IMHO equally important that the place has kind of social history. You see who is living there, if it has gained a reputation as a drug dealers' den (like Nirun), and you can have a look at the car park, if the motorbike taxi drivers are walking in and out, and if you have resident hookers which would greatly reduce quality of live and the investment.

Looks like that our accumulated views and experiences will turn this thread into the nightmare for any real estate agents and a god-sent for all newbies.

Edited January 23, 2015 by mike2011

[William Osborne]

Been here 15 years, had a drive around Jomtien yesterday and cannot believe the amount of new units in the last 2 years.... seriously into "bubble" territory....

Friend of mine from O&G work walked away from one of the high rises down the end of the beach, think he got cold feet the way things were going....

You really don't want to be part of condo building with a high percentage of unsold units as even with buildings with 100% ownership can turn into a nightmare regarding repairs/ management fees.

Anyone know what happened the Tulip high rise at the end of Hali Bali pier ? looks like its been abandoned half finished ?

[Awohalitsiktoli]

I appreciate all these calculations about the value/price of condo over the years. Still, no matter how good the data and formula is it omits critical aspects.

In 2004/5 Pattaya still had some green spots. Beachroad was not a concrete wall but had trees and some empty lots. The sea-breeze reached areas further inland. Today it hardly does so. Traffic was much less. No need to get into demographics, we all know it.

In other words, today the condo is located in a very much degraded environment with heavy air and noise pollution. i remember times when it was almost sensational when a foreigner was attacked. It was news, now it is like a daily soap opera. Crime has risen likewise. In sum, not just the condos got older, the whole place did.

Thats right the quality of life in Pattaya has really gone downhill. You would expect a discount factor coming into effect.

Thats why the developers are looking at the domestic market now. Since the Thais are oblivious to their environment.

Anyway there is a long list of confluent events coming into play.

IMHO, the quality of life factor is critical when talking about "value." Even if you are in the penthouse, at some point you have to come down from your perch. I have a lot of negative things to say (actually, positive criticism) about what has happened to Pattaya-Jomtien over the past twenty years, but I will not do that here. Let me just say that, IMHO, and not being any kind of expert or having the statistical data in front of me, I suspect that the collapse of the market has not taking place for one main reason: Thais w/ money to spend, mainly from Bangkok, are purchasing the condo units as long-term investments and short-term havens which they can escape to. As Bangkok becomes more unlivable, that trend will probably continue. I do not think foreigners are the prime drivers of this market, but I could be wrong and certainly have been wrong before.

[fosseway]

....

The new developers make money by selling fully finished units that look good but are built of cheap crap that will fall apart in no time.

Exactly.

October to November, I checked out 6 1BR condos, as I was unsure in which area to stay and which condo to rent. So I used AirBnB and the like to stay in each condo for 5-7 days, covering Jomtien, Pratamnak, South Pattaya.

Especially the newer ones looked really nice on first sight, but taking a second look, you could see the flaws. Starting with bad tiling, over obvious construction flaws, to showing wear and tear in 1-2 year old buildings on everything made from wood. Communal areas often neglected (outstanding maintenance fees?).

One of the most interesting ones was the new Atlantis. On first sight really beautiful with a great "water landscape". The block, I was staying in, was not fully fitted out. Thin walls, so you could hear the hammering of the "tilers" 2 floors below. Bad paint jobs on the not so visible parts of the building, sometimes already showing brown streaks of rusting iron from the concrete. I bet, the furniture will not survive more than 2 years rental and the owners have to replace it. Nice design on the floorways, but prone to staining. It was really fun to go downstairs and watch the craftsmen. The majority of the "craftsmen" were Burmese, (-directly from the rice field?-) not supervised by foremen, I would really like to see their first units in the Atlantis, where they still trained for the job...

Finally, looking for a rental via an agent recommended to me, I was shown a brand new condo near Mind Resort behind 3rd road, still advertising for 2.5 Mil. The condo was "nearly" finished, they were still fitting the furniture - I have never seen such a hit and run carpenter job before (not talking about the bad wood quality). Side remark: agent was asking for 23k for a 6 months contract, however: I could also have gotten another unit from a "friend" of him at 18k, 1 month minimum rental ....

Should be used as a warning to off plan buyers.

After moving in, co-owners and committee has to pay the price for improvements ,corrections.repairing.

And they can only hope that for all units, maintenance fee is paid annually.

Best thing if you want to buy with less risk, is to look at somewhat older projects like Grand Condotel, Jomtien Complex, Chateaudale complex.

These were build when good quality was more important then cheap prices.

[fosseway]

Build quality is of course one of the the first considerations, but another very important factor in deciding what complex to buy into is the number of units per lift, I live in a condo with 50 units per lift, the condo is also rarely full, as many Bangkok owners use it on high days and holidays, this results in hardly ever having to wait for a lift. I have visited friends in both VT 1 and 2 and had to wait ages for a lift. I am guessing the lift to room ratio is considerably higher than the above, maybe someone could tell me.

[BernieOnTour]

...

IMHO, the quality of life factor is critical when talking about "value." Even if you are in the penthouse, at some point you have to come down from your perch. I have a lot of negative things to say (actually, positive criticism) about what has happened to Pattaya-Jomtien over the past twenty years, but I will not do that here. Let me just say that, IMHO, and not being any kind of expert or having the statistical data in front of me, I suspect that the collapse of the market has not taking place for one main reason: Thais w/ money to spend, mainly from Bangkok, are purchasing the condo units as long-term investments and short-term havens which they can escape to. As Bangkok becomes more unlivable, that trend will probably continue. I do not think foreigners are the prime drivers of this market, but I could be wrong and certainly have been wrong before.

From my observation, this depends on the location. Hua-Hin and Pattayas' 3rd Road for sure is a Thai market. Also a considerable number of Thai investors in Central, eg. City Garden, Avenue and Urban.

However, from what I saw, Jomtien/Pratamnak was mainly geared at Russians, maybe Westerners.

A small percentage near the overfly now seemingly waiting to be picked up by a new clientele - Middle Eastern and South Asian, which for me would be the signal to run as fast, as I can.

[KittenKong]

Best thing if you want to buy with less risk, is to look at somewhat older projects like Grand Condotel, Jomtien Complex, Chateaudale complex.

The last I heard there were issues with the ownership quota in Chateau Dale.

[balo]

I sold the condo now for 1.35 million . It was not that hard really once I reduced the price, I had many buyers looking. Most owners think they can sell with a small profit in todays market, but they still don't understand how bad the financial situation is in EU now.

I accepted the loss and move on in life.

[ToddinChonburi]

Just stooped at the Parisideo by Bang Saen , only 1 0ne bed room left she said the are asking 86,000 baht per sqm. you got to be kidding right ? OH but we have a lot of two and three bedrooms left . This is the 3 towering buildings as you come into bang Saen going north on Sukumvit on your left. 1 bedroom 60 sqm

[ToddinChonburi]

A condo is only worth what someone is willing to pay. Unfortunately many people are paying way to much. There will be a lot up for rent for rent soon as the vacation season comes to an end .

[Anthony5]

A condo is only worth what someone is willing to pay. Unfortunately many people are paying way to much. There will be a lot up for rent for rent soon as the vacation season comes to an end .

I think the vacation season ended some 12 months ago.

[ttthailand]

Just stooped at the Parisideo by Bang Saen , only 1 0ne bed room left she said the are asking 86,000 baht per sqm. you got to be kidding right ? OH but we have a lot of two and three bedrooms left . This is the 3 towering buildings as you come into bang Saen going north on Sukumvit on your left. 1 bedroom 60 sqm

I was in Bang Saen last week. One development about 300 meters off the beach north of the main town in the middle of a huge field had 33sqm condos starting at around 1.6 mil. There were two building with about 300 units total. The building had pool, gym and other areas finished and rooms were basically finished except for beds, tables etc. It looked like no rooms were even occupied and I was told that only 4 units were sold.... ONLY 4 out of 300 in a completed building !!!

Something wrong somewhere ....

[Asiantravel]

Just stooped at the Parisideo by Bang Saen , only 1 0ne bed room left she said the are asking 86,000 baht per sqm. you got to be kidding right ? OH but we have a lot of two and three bedrooms left . This is the 3 towering buildings as you come into bang Saen going north on Sukumvit on your left. 1 bedroom 60 sqm

I was in Bang Saen last week. One development about 300 meters off the beach north of the main town in the middle of a huge field had 33sqm condos starting at around 1.6 mil. There were two building with about 300 units total. The building had pool, gym and other areas finished and rooms were basically finished except for beds, tables etc. It looked like no rooms were even occupied and I was told that only 4 units were sold.... ONLY 4 out of 300 in a completed building !!!

Something wrong somewhere ....

" I was told that only 4 units were sold.... "

How extraordinary. I bet whoever you were talking to were never meant to say that !!

Developers here will go to extraordinary lengths to make it appear they sold out quickly even if just for appearance sake they sell it to known associates or related companies.