What's the fate of Thailand's Expat off shore oil workers when oil prices drop so low?

[watcharacters]

Low oil prices are good only to a certain extent.

Your thoughts?

[pigeonjake]

this will give the oil companies time do more maintainence to the rigs as they wont be pumping to much,

like we are doing in angola huc up repairs, deck extentions ect,

its better to keep the oil in the ground and do maintainence, then to pump and store the oil,

still good brother

Edited January 16, 2015 by metisdead
Bold font removed.

[Rooo]

Moved to Offshore Workers Forum.

[Robroona]

Depends on which sector of the industry one is in. Budgets will be revised with some consequences. Some projects will be postponed. Some drilling rigs are already being stacked, so anyone who is a contractor, rather than a company employee, might expect to be laid off. Employees are not normally let go immediately.

One thing which wil come into the reckoning is visas. Normally offshore workers, due to their rotation, don't have a problem. Now they will have to work out how to satisfy requirements.

One more thing, on a lighter note. Just sometimes a 28/28 schedule is just enough to keep a man sane here. For those who like a drink, a longer time at home with the ensuing boredom, might tip them over an edge. Also, staying full time with the Mia might cast a new light on things

Edited January 7, 2015 by Robroona

[steven100]

All to be laid off .......

[Soutpeel]

My thoughts same as 2008/09 "correction" the prices will go back up, this is an opportunity to clear out all the "dross" from the companies which have become bloated over the last few years

[slapout]

if the low price stays low 50 dollars or more for 6 months+ it could be another oil field reduction in force, big time. many of us have seen this several times as did those pre 1960 oileys.

its part of the game you play WHEN YOU MAKE IT YOUR LIVELYHOOD. the older hands are prepared or have other options, its the recent grads/new employees who seem to get caught unaware so many times.

if its a long slowdown a group that gets hit hard many times, when things pick back up are those, laid off, 55 years of age and older. especially in the service sector/companies. ''many have known richer than 3 foot up a bull arse'' as well as '' not having 2 nickles to rub together'' it make men out of boys or in some cases babbleing idiots out of grown men.

[Aussieroaming]

Some of it depends which part of the industry you are in.

Rigs with marginal profit will cease, design, contruction and commissioning work will hit a lull and contractor numbers will temporarily drop off. Then in a couple of years it will ramp up again. So normal cycle boom and bust.

[Soutpeel]

if the low price stays low 50 dollars or more for 6 months+ it could be another oil field reduction in force, big time. many of us have seen this several times as did those pre 1960 oileys.

its part of the game you play WHEN YOU MAKE IT YOUR LIVELYHOOD. the older hands are prepared or have other options, its the recent grads/new employees who seem to get caught unaware so many times.

if its a long slowdown a group that gets hit hard many times, when things pick back up are those, laid off, 55 years of age and older. especially in the service sector/companies. ''many have known richer than 3 foot up a bull arse'' as well as '' not having 2 nickles to rub together'' it make men out of boys or in some cases babbleing idiots out of grown men.

The advice I give new guys to the game build your piggy bank up to make sure you have a few years money put away before you go apeshit buying cars and houses etc, at least 50% of your money stashed away

[slapout]

your from the old school of thinking soutpeel, excallent advice but the young bucks seem to mostly ignore what has worked for a long time/ i used to be dumbfounded whe kids told me they made house rent/payments of 40% of their earning. they always asked why i lived in smaller house, drove personal cars until they had at least 10 year age or 200,000 mile, and plowed as much as i could into various investments and kept a rat hole that the family did not know about. its hard to convience them until they been thru a reduction/layoff and they had to find new empolyment just to feed the family. they already lost the house to mortage company/bank, maybe a car and a host of other expensive things they did not need, maintane nor pay for.

this might be another of those prolonged drop for oil pric, if so those still in the game just have to tighten the cinch and do what is required. i noticed a friend of mine (heavely into shale oil drilling/production has had a fall of his reported wealth of 50% already.

[sdanielmcev]

Hopefully it'll get the speculators out of the game. Which drove up the price in the first place.

[daveAustin]

Mainly natural gas here, innit (different ballgame to oil, higher demand?) Also, a lot of locals are employed here and are paid a lot less with, say, the UK which is seeing lots of lay-offs.

[inzman]

Wasn't long ago the USA pulled out of Afghanistan and we lost all the highly paid military contractors. Now the oil fields will be closing up shop and we will lose the high paid oil rig workers. What will be left here, Chinese tourists following a guide with a flag.

[h90]

I don't know: Is it possible to shut down an oil rig and open it again when prices increase?

[Soutpeel]

Mainly natural gas here, innit (different ballgame to oil, higher demand?) Also, a lot of locals are employed here and are paid a lot less with, say, the UK which is seeing lots of lay-offs.

Yeap oil production is tiny in Thailand, further the offshore fields here can hardly keep up with demand locally for the gas even with imported from Burma, and all there local gas is "sold" to the Thai government, so not really free market economics at play in Thailand

Different dynamic here, will the operators cut back on new capex projects in Thailand ?

Maybe, but only because they are trying to save money in operations in other parts of the world which are getting pummelled

The gas side if the business is pretty stable this neck of the woods

As regards expats in the offshore game here, very few left anyway due to nationalisation, which has nothing to do with drop in prices, it could be 200 a barrel and if your position is on the must nationalisation list by X date that's it games over

Edited January 16, 2015 by Soutpeel

[SheungWan]

When all else has failed there's always TEFL.

[gemguy]

Let us hope most of them saved some of the good money they made over the years while their lifestyles are not so lavish as to burn a hole in their pockets leaving them more or less penniless.

I have been there and done that ( but not offshore work ) and made the big money ( so to speak ) in the Oil and Gas related construction and engineering industries that are somewhat overly dependent on the health of the Oil and Natural gas industries.

If the prices remain depressed you will see many of them heading home or laid off or possibly heading to other areas of the world where there will be money spent on various ongoing projects.

The oil prices were depressed back in 1998 to 2000 while it had a negative effect in many ways relative to the world wide economy....but there were numerous ongoing projects that were completed while the investors anticipated the future and higher oil prices that would see a return on their investments in a more timely fashion.

They were not wrong in their predictions while their investments paid off.

Besides...most of the oil workers know that many of the positions are not considered permanent while the majority of them know well that there comes a time when the projects end and they have to move on and find new employment.

Most of them are pretty resilient individuals.

Cheers

Edited January 17, 2015 by gemguy

[rotary]

We will see a correction in activity levels in upstream something like happened in the early 80s. Oil prices will remain under $55 for 2 to 3 years. About 1/2 of the upstream hands will lose their jobs. We have lots of pressure to use nationals or TCNs in positions and also Expats not living in Europe or North America will find it easier to work as firms want to save the problems and cost of hands having long flights with several legs. Pay raises will be lower or just not given, in fact expect salaries to be cut which has happened in the past. As to what happens to these oil workers in Thailand..........if they were smart by saving money they will enjoy the rewards of their efforts, if they spent all their money thinking it would never end then back home they go. Problem is this is about the longest up cycle in oilfield history we have just finished. People who have worked a short time such as 10 years have not really seen what can happen. Yes in the oilfield 10 years is viewed as a fairly new employee still.

I will now put up my crystal ball eh I mean my historical data info and pick up my beer.

[louse1953]

It means Heiny's,Tiger and San Mig sales down and Archa and Chang up.

[louse1953]

this will give the oil companies time do more maintainence to the rigs as they wont be pumping to much,

like we are doing in angola huc up repairs, deck extentions ect,

its better to keep the oil in the ground and do maintainence, then to pump and store the oil,

still good brother

BP just sacked 300 in the UK.

[Soutpeel]

We will see a correction in activity levels in upstream something like happened in the early 80s. Oil prices will remain under $55 for 2 to 3 years. About 1/2 of the upstream hands will lose their jobs. We have lots of pressure to use nationals or TCNs in positions and also Expats not living in Europe or North America will find it easier to work as firms want to save the problems and cost of hands having long flights with several legs. Pay raises will be lower or just not given, in fact expect salaries to be cut which has happened in the past. As to what happens to these oil workers in Thailand..........if they were smart by saving money they will enjoy the rewards of their efforts, if they spent all their money thinking it would never end then back home they go. Problem is this is about the longest up cycle in oilfield history we have just finished. People who have worked a short time such as 10 years have not really seen what can happen. Yes in the oilfield 10 years is viewed as a fairly new employee still.

I will now put up my crystal ball eh I mean my historical data info and pick up my beer.

Fair assessment other than the duration of 2-3 years under 55, I believe prices will rise way before that, think this situation is more like 2008/2009

[GOLDBUGGY]

You are going to see more of them laying around the beaches while waiting for their next job, and what they have done in the past.

[rotary]

We will see a correction in activity levels in upstream something like happened in the early 80s. Oil prices will remain under $55 for 2 to 3 years. About 1/2 of the upstream hands will lose their jobs. We have lots of pressure to use nationals or TCNs in positions and also Expats not living in Europe or North America will find it easier to work as firms want to save the problems and cost of hands having long flights with several legs. Pay raises will be lower or just not given, in fact expect salaries to be cut which has happened in the past. As to what happens to these oil workers in Thailand..........if they were smart by saving money they will enjoy the rewards of their efforts, if they spent all their money thinking it would never end then back home they go. Problem is this is about the longest up cycle in oilfield history we have just finished. People who have worked a short time such as 10 years have not really seen what can happen. Yes in the oilfield 10 years is viewed as a fairly new employee still.

I will now put up my crystal ball eh I mean my historical data info and pick up my beer.

Fair assessment other than the duration of 2-3 years under 55, I believe prices will rise way before that, think this situation is more like 2008/2009

Soutpeel, lets hope you are correct on less than 2-3 years on prices. I was there in the early 80s so that's burned in my memory. I never had a problem with keeping a job mostly due to luck and being in the right place at the right time but most of my mates did hence almost all left the oilfield. This will be a good reality check for these younger blokes.

[RigPig]

The Arabs will keep drilling regardless, they have no other form of income. They started the upturn and have now started the down turn. My company is taking 2 new rigs out of Dubai and are going in to Kuwait. Australia seems to be stacking rigs but some of them have contracts in the ME.

As long as it stays around $50 or more they will keep drilling. It´s easy enough to stack a rig, send it wherever, in long time or short. It may make it more competitive and some salaries will drop, but over all I can´t see much change personally. I guess it depends on what you do and how good you are at it to a degree.

[gemguy]

We will see a correction in activity levels in upstream something like happened in the early 80s. Oil prices will remain under $55 for 2 to 3 years. About 1/2 of the upstream hands will lose their jobs. We have lots of pressure to use nationals or TCNs in positions and also Expats not living in Europe or North America will find it easier to work as firms want to save the problems and cost of hands having long flights with several legs. Pay raises will be lower or just not given, in fact expect salaries to be cut which has happened in the past. As to what happens to these oil workers in Thailand..........if they were smart by saving money they will enjoy the rewards of their efforts, if they spent all their money thinking it would never end then back home they go. Problem is this is about the longest up cycle in oilfield history we have just finished. People who have worked a short time such as 10 years have not really seen what can happen. Yes in the oilfield 10 years is viewed as a fairly new employee still.

I will now put up my crystal ball eh I mean my historical data info and pick up my beer.

Fair assessment other than the duration of 2-3 years under 55, I believe prices will rise way before that, think this situation is more like 2008/2009

Always keep one thing in mind Gentlemen.

The last over priced spike in world wide oil prices was created by approximately 400 billion dollars worth of oil futures trading activities perpetrated by large financial concerns such as the Chase Manhattan Bank and other large banking and financial entities and a variety of other financial mechanism that artificially pushed up the oil prices and held them up by way of very lucrative oil futures trading activities.

A notable percent of that money has been pulled out of the oil futures trading market in the last 8 months while many lost money while many made loads of money.

Had the oil prices not being affected by all the unprecedented oil futures trading activities the prices of oil would be around where they are now ( or even lower by many experts estimates ) based on the standard supply and demand factors relative to available volumes of crude oil verses the world wide consumption of oil and all that is entailed.

The data shows that there is approximately 85 to 86 million barrels a day consumption ...but obscure data also reveals that there is about 100 million barrels a day available IF the wells were to be fully opened and the oil allowed to flow freely....more by some estimates.

But that can not happen as there is not enough logistical infrastructure existing to contain the volumes of oil and the flow of oil and or sufficient oil storage facilities and or sufficient transport infrastructure delivering the raw or refined products to markets and or refinery capacity existing to process 100 million barrels of oil a day.....nor is the consumer demand there for refined petroleum products in a over all sluggish world wide economy ...so.... it is left in the ground and regulated relative to many factors....with existing pipeline infrastructure and oil tanker infrastructure and related logistics and oil refinery capacity being critical factors, relative to how much oil can be moved around and or processed once it comes out of the ground...as it has to go somewhere and eventually be utilized.

All Oil Storage facilities around the world are considered as temporary storage while many storage facilities in existence are now at 90% plus capacity.

There is a glut of oil, at present, and recognized as so .........so the experts expect the prices to drop even further for many valid reasons ....but they can be mistaken.

If the oil futures trading activities resume in earnest then you will see the prices climb once again....but without that factor ..... they expect the prices to remain low relative to supply and demand factors.

But the lucrative profits to me made in the oil futures trading are not wholly based on supply and demand factors while the oil futures trading "for profit" by large global financial entities are not going away rather they are far less active at present and repositioning themselves while they will eventually start to apply their financial clout once again and drive up the prices and once again profit from oil futures trading.

Actually, although it is a false or artificially achieved oil price, by way of lucrative oil futures trading, sustaining the prices up there at around 80 to 100 dollars barrel helps make for a much more healthy oil industry that helps to spread the wealth around while everyone in the oil industry makes good money and makes for a far more lucrative environment for everyone.

If the prices remain depressed the citizens will not be complaining about the price of refined petroleum products rather they will be complaining about far more than gas prices when the economy goes into the dumps because of ongoing depressed oil prices.

Given a choice I can assure you people would rather have the oil prices up and the economy being robust rather than the economy being negatively effected by depressed oil prices for years on end and all the ramifications occurring.

Cheers

[RickyJB]

this will give the oil companies time do more maintainence to the rigs as they wont be pumping to much,

like we are doing in angola huc up repairs, deck extentions ect,

its better to keep the oil in the ground and do maintainence, then to pump and store the oil,

still good brother

we´re still flat out, here in Angola, so fingers crossed it stays that way

[Soutpeel]

When all else has failed there's always TEFL.

And if that fails we can all become digital pikeys

[Don Aleman]

One of my friends is an offshore worker who earned an average of $ 7000\US dollars a month and I hope he and others put some in savings accounts !

[Soutpeel]

this will give the oil companies time do more maintainence to the rigs as they wont be pumping to much,

like we are doing in angola huc up repairs, deck extentions ect,

its better to keep the oil in the ground and do maintainence, then to pump and store the oil,

still good brother

we´re still flat out, here in Angola, so fingers crossed it stays that way

Certain locations are not going to be affected by this drop as such , it all depends on what the break even point is, if a project was costed out at say 30 a barrel, which a lot are, even at 50 its still viable, not ideal but still viable

The closer the break even is to the actual barrel price the more the <deleted> start twitching

[Soutpeel]

One of my friends is an offshore worker who earned an average of $ 7000\US dollars a month and I hope he and others put some in savings accounts !

Well one can only hope he had the sense to put at least 50% of that away, problem is with a lot of the new guys in game they believe its always going to be boom time and go stupid buying houses, cars, holidays etc and spending like there is no tomorrow, these Aree the ones who end up without a pot to piss in