'Crisis' non-elected Thai PM could come sooner than expected

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE
'Crisis' non-elected PM could come sooner than expected
Attayuth Bootsripoom

BANGKOK: -- The drafters of the new constitution have said it will not be easy for an outsider to become prime minister under the new charter they are writing. A non-elected PM will be possible only in a time of crisis, a spokesman for the Constitution Drafting Committee said.

However, judging from some relevant factors, it is likely that an outsider prime minister may come earlier than expected - perhaps as soon as the first general election held under the new constitution.

The constitution will have clauses that interconnect, he said, and the clauses regarding the prime minister will certainly link with those about elections, or about those empowered to select the prime minister or to nominate the government head for royal endorsement. There will certainly be connections with clauses about the appointment of other Cabinet members and the use of authority as the government.

The constitution drafters plan to base Thailand's new electoral system on the German model. The highest number of MPs from each contesting political party will be based on the result of the party-list election of proportional representation for the entire country.

That means any party that wins more than the maximum number of MP seats from constituencies is eligible for the proportional-representation system, and will have no MPs from the party-list election. This is aimed at allowing the actual number of MPs and their political parties to reflect the voter support better.

So there is no guarantee that candidates in the party-list system will get elected to Parliament.

Political parties will win MPs from the party-list system when the number of winning MPs from the constituency system is lower than the maximum number of MPs that are eligible from the party-list election of proportional representation for the entire country.

Because of the uncertainties, it is likely that the leaders of many political parties and prime-ministerial candidates will opt not to contest the future elections as party-list candidates as they will run the risk of failing to get elected. They may instead opt to contest in the constituency system.

However, if the new constitution states that the prime minister and Cabinet members cannot come from the ranks of MPs, any MP who is elected to become prime minister will have to resign as an MP. This will result in a by-election and the PM's party that has just won the general election may not win again. If that is the case, the government will have one fewer MP.

Also, many Cabinet members in the future will not be MPs, as the ruling party will try to avoid by-elections and the chance of failing to get elected.

This electoral system will prevent domination by any single political party in the House of Representatives. That means every MP the ruling party has will be vital to the government's stability.

Major political parties may have to consider carefully whether they are willing to field their PM candidates in the general election at all and, if they do, whether their PM candidates should contest in the constituency or in the party-list system.

If the large political parties opt not to field their prime-ministerial candidates and they end up having to contest in the House for the top seat, it is likely there will be severe disagreement.

And that will bring about a crisis that can only be solved by bringing in an outsider to act as prime minister. The need may come earlier than expected.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Crisis-non-elected-PM-could-come-sooner-than-expec-30251456.html


-- The Nation 2015-01-08

[Ozziepat]

So, disagreement = crisis = politically-correct coup? Just wondering...

[chainarong]

Thailand is going about this issue arse about , until they come to terms of including the highest in the land being involved like the UK and turning off the power of the Military they can make as much noise as they like, the fact is that nothing will have changed, a non elected PM is at present in power, so it has indeed come sooner than expected and next time it will be again military involvement.

[yellowboat]

Sounds like a open door for somebody do usurp control

[ChrisY1]

So a friend of the generals may be the next PM.....

[binjalin]

Thailand's is, more or less, permanently in 'crisis'

translation:

the Army will take over as and when they see fit and say it's in "The New Constitution"

[DKUNPUTAF713]

".......until they come to terms of including the highest in the land being involved...."

How do you think the Military can assume control if it did not include (fill in the blank) and not come under the past civilian governments?

[rickirs]

SPOILER ALERT

*******************************

The next PM will be

[noitom]

the Thais are following the German model. When they fail, they can blame the Germans.

[billd766]

So a friend of the generals may be the next PM.....

Rather than under Thaksins TRT/PPP/PTP when it was one of the "family who became the PM.

This was a fact under Thaksins rules but not so far under the current government rules.

IF it happens, then it happens and if it doesn't it doesn't matter.

Try not to confuse maybe with what is or has been.

Edited January 8, 2015 by billd766

[MaxLee]

the Thais are following the German model. When they fail, they can blame the Germans.

You mean,... the old terrorizing Nazi-Hitler model???

The modern German model doesn't feature any sorts of suppression or censorship of what is still about to come in Thailand

Edited January 8, 2015 by MaxLee

[elgordo38]

Thailand's is, more or less, permanently in 'crisis'

translation:

the Army will take over as and when they see fit and say it's in "The New Constitution"

How can the country be in crisis and still have the stock market out perform other markets and have the baht hold its own against most currencies and increase against others. Puzzling??

[JAG]

A crisis presumably includes the Democratic Party failing to win an election?

[Thai at Heart]

Thailand's is, more or less, permanently in 'crisis'

translation:

the Army will take over as and when they see fit and say it's in "The New Constitution"

And if it isn't, just call Suthep or Sondhi and they will whip one up in a trice.

[BSJ]

The German model seems like a right cock-up! Are they going to put this to the masses in a referendum? Of course they will need an alternative system as well for people to choose from.

[ExPratt]

Is there no one in this country who knows what they are supposed to be doing with this ?

These ideas and formula's for democracy , remind me of a group of 6th former's sitting in a coffee shop exchanging thoughts and ideas after a good night on the Laudanum

Edited January 8, 2015 by ExPratt

[DavidOxon]

The formula that has the best chance of a yellow victory (Or rather a red loss) will be the one they choose. I'm sure they've run the statistics of the vote through several computer models based on the last couple of elections, and this is the one that gives the reds the worst result.... I'm just guessing here, obviously!