Prayut and military may have misjudged US reaction

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE
Prayut and military may have misjudged US reaction
SUPALAK GANJANAKHUNDEE
THE NATION

BANGKOK: -- PRIME MINISTER Prayut Chan-o-cha might have sensed the key message from Washington on relations between Thailand and the United States when he said on Monday that he realised the reason why Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel did not want to meet him.

"He did not come to see me because they know where I come from," Prayut told reporters when asked if he was scheduled to see Russel, who is the highest-ranking US official to visit Thailand since the May 22 coup.

That's right. General Prayut became Prime Minister of Thailand because he staged a military coup d'etat to topple the elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra. The lawmakers whom he picked for the National Legislative Assembly voted him into the government's top job.

Initially, Prayut would have anticipated some reaction from Washington about his coup - but apparently expected the US would turn a blind eye to what he did if he could offer "something of interest" to the Obama administration.

The Americans can comment on Thai politics as long as economic relations remain as usual. The junta chief Prayut might be right on this point. Economic relations between Thailand and the US have continued. No economic sanctions have been imposed, so far. The strongest action the US took to directly react to the coup was to freeze military assistance - but the amount was too little to affect the Thai armed forces.

However, the thing which Prime Minister Prayut - as the leader of Thailand - must do is to study the whole breadth of relations between Thailand and the US, in a regional context.

Prayut and his advisers have so far misread the international political landscape and felt that Washington badly needed Thailand as a strategic ally to balance China in its Asia-Pacific pivot policy. As many senior officials at the Foreign Ministry love to say, "We are cleaning our house. It is not the business of outsiders, as long as mutual (economic) interests are not affected."

But that reading is too shallow. His advisers in the military went too far in thinking that if Bangkok showed a leaning towards Beijing, Washington would rush to please the government with a favour to keep Thailand's support.

Thailand's foreign policy did, in fact, lean toward China - but that has not stopped Washington from criticising our internal politics. Could something have gone wrong?

Thailand, from Washington's perspective, has been politically set back due to its internal conflict. It is a tradition for countries in the West to employ political means in accordance with democratic norms to settle such a conflict. For them, military means are appropriate for security matters, not politics.

Russel sent a very clear message when he addressed Chulalongkorn University on Monday. "Our relationship with Thailand has been challenged and affected by the military coup that removed a democratically-elected government eight months ago," he said.

A few sentences from his speech can tell the story. He said: "For decades, the US has worked with Asia-Pacific allies, and even more since the end of the Cold War, with partners like members of Asean to advance security, prosperity, and democracy throughout the region.

"Together, we've built a regional architecture and institutions to strengthen rule of law. This architecture has helped keep the peace in the region, and many nations have taken advantage of the space provided by peace to develop, both politically and economically," he said.

Keys words in this address are democracy and rule of law. Thailand, over past years, has reigned supreme in the region for democracy and the rule of law. With collaboration from the US, leaders in Bangkok worked hard for progress and development in neighbouring Myanmar.

Myanmar made a significant change in recent years, but to the Americans' disappointment Thailand has gone backwards. The military, which faced a serious challenge from non-traditional security threats, natural disaster and terrorists, wasted time with work it has never been keen on - politics.

What is to be done to mend relations? US State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki underlined Russel's visit by saying "Our relationship with Thailand cannot return to normal until democracy is re-established."

But one thing needs to be kept in mind - nobody is telling Prayut to employ "American democracy" if he wants to restore relations with Washington.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Prayut-and-military-may-have-misjudged-US-reaction-30252817.html

-- The Nation 2015-01-28

[Thai at Heart]

Thailand, over past years, has reigned supreme in the region for democracy and the rule of law.

This is like giving everyone a prize for participating. Gold star for effort.....

Bloody hell reigned supreme as the kid in a room full of midgets. Apologies to midgets.

[marinediscoking]

Seems to me the USA is saying it is time to set an election date.

[Kooweerup]

"He did not come to see me because they know where I come from," Prayut told reporters.

This guy is so totally full of himself. Look up Vanity in the dictionary.

noun, plural vanities.

1. PRAYUT's excessive pride in one's appearance, qualities, abilities, achievements, etc.; character or quality of being vain; conceit:

Failure to be elected was a great blow to his vanity.

Edited January 28, 2015 by Kooweerup

[ExPratt]

I'd say the US has quite a lot to be concerned with before Thailand. IMO they are making the right noises. Would be a catastrophe for Thailand if they throw their hat into the ring with China

[talktomarty]

So the Americans will sit down with YL but NOT with Prayut! Says it all really doesn't it

[chainarong]

What makes General P.M. Prayut Chan - O -cha think that by staging a coup the US and its allies would turn a blind eye , when the bottom line is Democracy , a properly Elected government by the People , that fundamentally is the basis that the US ,UN and Western Allies use as their platform in determination whether a country is run by a dictator or an elected leader , Thailand as far as a strategic area of influence has now been replaced by Australia with US forces now stationed permanently in the top end along with their aircraft, with Australia's over the horizon radar , there is now no need to have Thailand dithering around , simply put, Thailand is not as important as it thought it was.

[noitom]

Thai hubris reflected in the Thai press.

[Tatsujin]

"He did not come to see me because they know where I come from," Prayut told reporters.

This guy is so totally full of himself. Look up Vanity in the dictionary.

noun, plural vanities.

1. PRAYUT's excessive pride in one's appearance, qualities, abilities, achievements, etc.; character or quality of being vain; conceit:

Failure to be elected was a great blow to his vanity.

His vanity was dented cos he wasn't elected? To what? How? There haven't been any elections that he's run in as far as I am aware so far as they've been put on hold indefinitely during the "reconciliation".

[chainarong]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

No, Danny Russel did not meet with Prayuth, because Danny Russel is not a diplomat. He is a staffer promoted into a diplomatic position, and he needs to be immediately recalled. By his own admission, when he was appointed to the post in July 2013, he had only worked as a White House staffer, and had never left the four walls of his office. He's a disgrace to both the U.S. and to the diplomatic community. As a U.S. citizen, I am embarrassed by his behavior.

Danny Russel would be acting under instructions from the top man , Russel would be following orders and be briefed thoroughly before even boarding the plane to Thailand, the speech at the UNI would have been written by the State Department.

[Kooweerup]

"He did not come to see me because they know where I come from," Prayut told reporters.

This guy is so totally full of himself. Look up Vanity in the dictionary.

noun, plural vanities.

1. PRAYUT's excessive pride in one's appearance, qualities, abilities, achievements, etc.; character or quality of being vain; conceit:

Failure to be elected was a great blow to his vanity.

His vanity was dented cos he wasn't elected? To what? How? There haven't been any elections that he's run in as far as I am aware so far as they've been put on hold indefinitely during the "reconciliation".

Like I said look up Vanity in the dictionary. That example is used in the dictionary

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/vanity

[lovetotravel]

No, Danny Russel did not meet with Prayuth, because Danny Russel is not a diplomat. He is a staffer promoted into a diplomatic position, and he needs to be immediately recalled. By his own admission, when he was appointed to the post in July 2013, he had only worked as a White House staffer, and had never left the four walls of his office. He's a disgrace to both the U.S. and to the diplomatic community. As a U.S. citizen, I am embarrassed by his behavior.

Maybe you should do some research on Danny first:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_R._Russel

Daniel R. Russel is an American diplomat who currently serves as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. Prior to his appointment as Assistant Secretary, Russel was Special Assistant to the President and National Security Staff Senior Director for Asian Affairs. While working at the White House, he was a major figure in the Obama administration's "pivot towards Asia" strategy.^%5B1%5D

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assistant_Secretary_of_State_for_East_Asian_and_Pacific_Affairs

The Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs is the head of the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs within the United States Department of State. The Assistant Secretary guides operation of the U.S. diplomatic establishment in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region and advises the Secretary of State and the Under Secretary for Political Affairs on matters relating to the area. The current Assistant Secretary is Daniel R. Russel.

Some very well known people have held this position in the past. He deserves respect.

[whatawonderfulday]

This guy does not even have to try to become a babbling buffoon in front of the worlds media, he was born with the gift and it all comes out so naturally.

[Userone]

I don't think there is anything to sense, it has been stated over and over again by Jen Psaki here: http://bangkok.usembassy.gov/statements.html

The curious thing is that from what I can tell nothing has really changed at all between the change in the governments. Only the flow of money from the very top has been diverted.

I would really like to know why foreigners support either of the political factions, because doing so is the equivelent of liking a football club. It is meaningless, besides for sport and loyalty. I'm polite to both sides, and whenever Thai people try to drag me into a political debate, I just politely ask them "Has anything really changed in your life?" and the answer is always is "no." So, if the U.S. knew diplomacy, they would do likewise.

Unless something has actually changed for them. If so, what has changed between U.S. Thai relations that can be observed or measured in terms of trade?

[Valentine]

Come on. For all those posting about the US supporting democracy think about who they have supported in the past & continue to do so. Obama has just been to the "hub" of middle east democarcy, Saudi Arabia, most recently known for sentencing a man to 10 years in prison & 1,000 lashes for criticisng some clerics. Supporting Saudi is all about oil & using them as a buffer in a country that is the very antithesis of democracy. If the Vietnam war was happening now the US would not have said boo about the coup.

[binjalin]

Come on. For all those posting about the US supporting democracy think about who they have supported in the past & continue to do so. Obama has just been to the "hub" of middle east democarcy, Saudi Arabia, most recently known for sentencing a man to 10 years in prison & 1,000 lashes for criticisng some clerics. Supporting Saudi is all about oil & using them as a buffer in a country that is the very antithesis of democracy. If the Vietnam war was happening now the US would not have said boo about the coup.

two wrongs don't make a right and this is wrong

[Tatsujin]

"He did not come to see me because they know where I come from," Prayut told reporters.

This guy is so totally full of himself. Look up Vanity in the dictionary.

noun, plural vanities.

1. PRAYUT's excessive pride in one's appearance, qualities, abilities, achievements, etc.; character or quality of being vain; conceit:

Failure to be elected was a great blow to his vanity.

His vanity was dented cos he wasn't elected? To what? How? There haven't been any elections that he's run in as far as I am aware so far as they've been put on hold indefinitely during the "reconciliation".

Like I said look up Vanity in the dictionary. That example is used in the dictionary

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/vanity

The sentence "Failure to be elected was a great blow to his vanity" looked like something you'd added, not as part of the explanation of what vanity was, hence my question.

[Fat Haggis]

The US, as well as many other countries leasers and politicians are fully aware of why the Junta are never going to step down until after the "event" , unlike us, they are allowed to discuss the reasons, it's been printed in many broadsheets by now, and yet some farangs here still believe it was to stop more bloodshed!!

Nobody knows what was said in the privacy of these meetings, for all we know the US could have been telling the PTP to refrain from acts of violence, let the Junta control everything because the longer Martial Law continues, then there's more chance of discord and potential for said violence.

Prayut's nose was put out of joint, nothing more, he's correct in what he said, his coup is more than likely one of the reasons why there was no meeting, his subsequent clampdowns on media, and other areas are also factors to take into consideration.

[MaiChai]

America policeman of the world on their terms. I know alot of Americans don't agree with what their government does.

Prayut dealt with a very difficult situation; he is trying to do the right thing.

[Lupatria]

The former biggest ally sends a backbench diplomat to Thailand who refused to talk to the “PM” and instead holds a meeting with his opponents. If I was in Prayuth’s shoes I would miss the little red light blinking here. But maybe he is too busy to choose the right uniform for tomorrow’s public statement.

[Fat Haggis]

Come on. For all those posting about the US supporting democracy think about who they have supported in the past & continue to do so. Obama has just been to the "hub" of middle east democarcy, Saudi Arabia, most recently known for sentencing a man to 10 years in prison & 1,000 lashes for criticisng some clerics. Supporting Saudi is all about oil & using them as a buffer in a country that is the very antithesis of democracy. If the Vietnam war was happening now the US would not have said boo about the coup.

and on the other hand you have a "democracy" that sends you to be re educated for reading a book and eating a sandwich?

you're comparing apples to oranges, different cultures to start off with, where in one, women can get stoned to death for committing adultery, if that was to happen here, half the Junta and Police would have to stick with their wives!!!!

[Eric Loh]

What makes General P.M. Prayut Chan - O -cha think that by staging a coup the US and its allies would turn a blind eye , when the bottom line is Democracy , a properly Elected government by the People , that fundamentally is the basis that the US ,UN and Western Allies use as their platform in determination whether a country is run by a dictator or an elected leader , Thailand as far as a strategic area of influence has now been replaced by Australia with US forces now stationed permanently in the top end along with their aircraft, with Australia's over the horizon radar , there is now no need to have Thailand dithering around , simply put, Thailand is not as important as it thought it was.

Let's not forget that USA has comprehensive partnership with Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. Malaysia is hosting US Navy aircraft and Singapore has a permanent logistic base for the 7th fleet. USA is certainly not that concern with Thailand pivoting towards China and will be only Thailand folly to cosy up to a communist state. USA is still a big economic and financial superpower. If they switch off their economic and financial ties, Thailand will be in a big black hole. We can see why a unelected leader is turning more to socialist states like China, Vietnam and Mynmar as they have much in common. Thailand will unlikely to get financial fundings and loans from the democractic west for its infrastructure projects. China will be too willing to provide the loan and influence.

[EyesWideOpen]

Funny stuff. I have said it before, and I will say it again. Thailand has time and

time again proven itself to be a bit of a backstabbing ally for America, so at this

point I feel America has little interest in Thailand, and in the future it will play

no part in America's " strategy" in South East Asia. This reality is just beginning

to dawn on Thailand's " leadership". Thailand has slowly shifted to China's

corner which is not endearing itself to America either. My guess is we will see

a policy shift of America towards Vietnam, who hate the Chinese. First tip off

will be when America builds a naval base in Vietnam......

Edited January 28, 2015 by EyesWideOpen

[aimbc]

I don't think there is anything to sense, it has been stated over and over again by Jen Psaki here: http://bangkok.usembassy.gov/statements.html

The curious thing is that from what I can tell nothing has really changed at all between the change in the governments. Only the flow of money from the very top has been diverted.

I would really like to know why foreigners support either of the political factions, because doing so is the equivelent of liking a football club. It is meaningless, besides for sport and loyalty. I'm polite to both sides, and whenever Thai people try to drag me into a political debate, I just politely ask them "Has anything really changed in your life?" and the answer is always is "no." So, if the U.S. knew diplomacy, they would do likewise.

Unless something has actually changed for them. If so, what has changed between U.S. Thai relations that can be observed or measured in terms of trade?

US policy has always been to promote democracy through out the world. Kind of like every religion try to achieve.

It's like a belonging to a club. I guess to be friends with the U S, you need to follow their rules. US has their fair share of problem with civil war. Thailand thankfully do not need to go this direction to solve its problem.

U.S. is a country with no national identify or deep cultures, so it will never understand other countries. It's a country that claim it's making a better country by stealing it from the indigenous people. What ever it takes for the country to distract from the attention of the world on what they have done in the past they will do.

I do not hate the US, it's a great nation. But they need to learn to respect that every country has its way to solve it's democratic problems.

[bkkcanuck8]

It is a simple misreading by the military. In the past Thailand was strategically very important, it is not really that important right now to American interests, they pivoted a while ago to improving relationships with others that they were once enemies (i.e. Vietnam and the US have some mutual vested interest which is why Vietnam has been warming up to potentials of having the US military have docking privileges - as a counterbalance to China). Thailand overestimates their value....

[Caveat Emptor]

I read somewhere that the PM said he'd met 21 ambassadors at the UN and all understood the road map and supported it etc.

Funny thing that, they always do BUT we never hear them say it !

[OnTheRun]

So the Americans will sit down with YL but NOT with Prayut! Says it all really doesn't it

They have a lot of previous with regards to propping up corrupt governments for their own self interest, to the detriment of the said countries and their inhabitants.

[yellowboat]

This is just the beginning of their misjudgements

[JDGRUEN]

I look at the alternative -- the two major 'political' factions engaging in 'democracy' using extreme violence with M79 Grenade launchers, sniper rifles, bloody attacks, bombs --- and somehow the Junta is worse in the eyes of some -- because they took away democracy from the people?... Are you guys joking ? or smoking? What Democracy was taken? There was no Democracy in Thailand in the last year prior to the Junta - it was mob violence. If any one of you here on this thread think that mob violence - intimidation by use of indiscriminate bombs, use of sniper rifles, firing long distance grenades using an M79 launcher is Democracy - then you are brain dead. Children were killed in the name of the Democracy you defend.

[sabaii69]

"He did not come to see me because they know where I come from," Prayut told reporters.

This guy is so totally full of himself. Look up Vanity in the dictionary.

noun, plural vanities.

1. PRAYUT's excessive pride in one's appearance, qualities, abilities, achievements, etc.; character or quality of being vain; conceit:

Failure to be elected was a great blow to his vanity.

I looked up 'vanity' in my American-Thai dictionary and there was simply a photo of Prayut.