Prayut and military may have misjudged US reaction

[Toknarok]

The OP from the Nation is the latest in a series criticising the military leadership. I wonder if perhaps they're not treading on unsafe ground. Seems somewhat strange really coming from a rag the was so anti PTP and the Shinawatras and pro the yellows. Now that the Shins have gone they seem concerned that democracy seems to be off the cards at least for the present. Considering they were pro a group that tried to bring down a democratically elected government (no matter how bad it was) and that group actively prevented an election being held, to now wish for an election smacks IMO of gross hypocracy.

Edited January 28, 2015 by Toknarok

[Don Aleman]

Pay attention to the MESSAGE and not who delivers it ! If someone holding "4 aces'"says "bet or get out", you think before making any move or insulting remark about the bettor !

[halloween]

"He did not come to see me because they know where I come from," Prayut told reporters.

This guy is so totally full of himself. Look up Vanity in the dictionary.

noun, plural vanities.

1. PRAYUT's excessive pride in one's appearance, qualities, abilities, achievements, etc.; character or quality of being vain; conceit:

Failure to be elected was a great blow to his vanity.

You claim that Prayuth is vain; would you like to compare his level of vanity with his predecessor?

Perhaps you are mistaking pride for vanity. At least he appears to have qualities, abilities, achievements, etc

[yellowboat]

I look at the alternative -- the two major 'political' factions engaging in 'democracy' using extreme violence with M79 Grenade launchers, sniper rifles, bloody attacks, bombs --- and somehow the Junta is worse in the eyes of some -- because they took away democracy from the people?... Are you guys joking ? or smoking? What Democracy was taken? There was no Democracy in Thailand in the last year prior to the Junta - it was mob violence. If any one of you here on this thread think that mob violence - intimidation by use of indiscriminate bombs, use of sniper rifles, firing long distance grenades using an M79 launcher is Democracy - then you are brain dead. Children were killed in the name of the Democracy you defend.

It is the police force and military's job to protect people and instituitions. They failed as always. We also know who was backing whom.

"They that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." Benjamin Franklin

[halloween]

I look at the alternative -- the two major 'political' factions engaging in 'democracy' using extreme violence with M79 Grenade launchers, sniper rifles, bloody attacks, bombs --- and somehow the Junta is worse in the eyes of some -- because they took away democracy from the people?... Are you guys joking ? or smoking? What Democracy was taken? There was no Democracy in Thailand in the last year prior to the Junta - it was mob violence. If any one of you here on this thread think that mob violence - intimidation by use of indiscriminate bombs, use of sniper rifles, firing long distance grenades using an M79 launcher is Democracy - then you are brain dead. Children were killed in the name of the Democracy you defend.

It is the police force and military's job to protect people and instituitions. They failed as always. We also know who was backing whom.

"They that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." Benjamin Franklin

Was Ben talking about Thailand or Homeland Security?

[poweratradio]

I'd say the US has quite a lot to be concerned with before Thailand. IMO they are making the right noises. Would be a catastrophe for Thailand if they throw their hat into the ring with China

They already have.....Can't have China flooding the world with all the U.S. currency it holds.

[RigPig]

America policeman of the world on their terms. I know alot of Americans don't agree with what their government does.

Prayut dealt with a very difficult situation; he is trying to do the right thing.

By who?

[Old Man River]

No, Danny Russel did not meet with Prayuth, because Danny Russel is not a diplomat. He is a staffer promoted into a diplomatic position, and he needs to be immediately recalled. By his own admission, when he was appointed to the post in July 2013, he had only worked as a White House staffer, and had never left the four walls of his office. He's a disgrace to both the U.S. and to the diplomatic community. As a U.S. citizen, I am embarrassed by his behavior.

Russel is not a diplomat, and is not a disgrace. He was carrying Washington's message. Don't shoot the messenger.

IMHO, pre-coup, diplomats exercising diplomacy would have served the U.S. well. At least getting a modicum of understanding of the situation should have been expected given the US's long history of understanding of Thailand and its coups and also having designated Thailand as a non-NATO ally.

Blame it on whoever, but there was an apparent disconnect in information flows from the ground level to U.S. decision makers. Hence it appeared to some that In time, everything would revert back to as before, but the civil war didn't materialize and this has left the US supporting a side that has no way to get back.

Now a return to democracy in whatever form should allow a Thai US relationship to move on, but it will never be the same. China has been welcomed through the front door. Some distrust between Thailand and the U.S. will exist that wasn't there before.

If you want to counter China, you don't provide situations with your allies that gives China access through the front door, especially not in their own backyard. The biggest negative for China is that their system sucks, but for countries in need, a lot of time passes until this gets realized.

Edited January 28, 2015 by Old Man River

[PREM-R]

The US, as well as many other countries leasers and politicians are fully aware of why the Junta are never going to step down until after the "event" , unlike us, they are allowed to discuss the reasons, it's been printed in many broadsheets by now, and yet some farangs here still believe it was to stop more bloodshed!!

Nobody knows what was said in the privacy of these meetings, for all we know the US could have been telling the PTP to refrain from acts of violence, let the Junta control everything because the longer Martial Law continues, then there's more chance of discord and potential for said violence.

Prayut's nose was put out of joint, nothing more, he's correct in what he said, his coup is more than likely one of the reasons why there was no meeting, his subsequent clampdowns on media, and other areas are also factors to take into consideration.

You are so right about the reason for the coup. There are so many regular contributors to Thai Visa forum who offer their opinions as 'experts' on Thailand, and with thousands of posts, who suggest that the army took control to stop "innocent protesters being killed" or to "wipe out corruption". What nonsense, the Amart ordered the army out because of their fear of what may happen after "the event" as you describe it.

[Phatcharanan]

Would be a catastrophe for Thailand if they throw their hat into the ring with China

Why?

[bkkcanuck8]

Would be a catastrophe for Thailand if they throw their hat into the ring with China

Why?

Because eventually China is a historical threat to Thailand and would like to bring into their empirical orbit -- or even acquisition. It is something Vietnam has experienced in the second half of last century. If Thailand wants to become a modern version of Tibet... then keep snuggling up tightly to China. There are a lot of military elite that are historically very weary of getting too close to China, which is why Thailand has had such strong military connections with the United States. Prayut was under the misunderstanding that nothing had changed, so all they had to do was snuggle up closer to China and the US would go running scared. They haven't. If Prayut continues to snuggle up to China and the US does not care.... Prayut himself would be deposed in a coup.

[RigPig]

"He did not come to see me because they know where I come from," Prayut told reporters.

This guy is so totally full of himself. Look up Vanity in the dictionary.

noun, plural vanities.

1. PRAYUT's excessive pride in one's appearance, qualities, abilities, achievements, etc.; character or quality of being vain; conceit:

Failure to be elected was a great blow to his vanity.

You claim that Prayuth is vain; would you like to compare his level of vanity with his predecessor?

Perhaps you are mistaking pride for vanity. At least he appears to have qualities, abilities, achievements, etc

Name some.....

[bkkcanuck8]

I'd say the US has quite a lot to be concerned with before Thailand. IMO they are making the right noises. Would be a catastrophe for Thailand if they throw their hat into the ring with China

They already have.....Can't have China flooding the world with all the U.S. currency it holds.

Chinese leadership are very aware of the risk they themselves would face if they did that. China is still an export oriented nation. Chinese elite/leadership have their kids going to US educational institutions, driving around recklessly in quarter-million dollar cars, partying etc. There is a lot of ill gotten gains from Chinese many leaders in US financial institutions. All that information is power, power that could be used to bring down a lot of the Chinese elite if the information were widely dispersed inside China.

[poweratradio]

I'd say the US has quite a lot to be concerned with before Thailand. IMO they are making the right noises. Would be a catastrophe for Thailand if they throw their hat into the ring with China

They already have.....Can't have China flooding the world with all the U.S. currency it holds.

Chinese leadership are very aware of the risk they themselves would face if they did that. China is still an export oriented nation. Chinese elite/leadership have their kids going to US educational institutions, driving around recklessly in quarter-million dollar cars, partying etc. There is a lot of ill gotten gains from Chinese many leaders in US financial institutions. All that information is power, power that could be used to bring down a lot of the Chinese elite if the information were widely dispersed inside China.

I restate that they already have thrown their hat in with China.

[Baerboxer]

Thailand, over past years, has reigned supreme in the region for democracy and the rule of law.

This is like giving everyone a prize for participating. Gold star for effort.....

Bloody hell reigned supreme as the kid in a room full of midgets. Apologies to midgets.

"Thailand, over past years, has reigned supreme in the region for democracy and the rule of law."

There are so many cases that demonstrate the somewhat different approach of Thai Law, as in money and connections equals innocence. The last government simply ignored any laws they didn't like and the current government make them up as they go along. Polarized punishments for the rich and the poor and enforcement officers that are renowned for their corruption, laziness and ineptitude.

Democracy - well there were elections. Not for all posts. Some intimidation, election fraud and rule bending. How many countries would accept any government, even if elected, that then refused to be accountable and acted illegally, and were openly under instruction from a convicted criminal non elected fugitive who even reshuffled the cabinet at will?

Doesn't say much for the opposition - junta in Burma, Family control in Singapore, communist Laos and Vietnam, one party dominance in Malaysia, corruption ridden Philippines, autocratic rule in Brunei and a former murderous terrorist controlling Cambodia in what is effectively one part dominance.

But, I think Singapore and it's law enforcement might just have the edge, but about 20 country miles on rule of law.

[bkkcanuck8]

I'd say the US has quite a lot to be concerned with before Thailand. IMO they are making the right noises. Would be a catastrophe for Thailand if they throw their hat into the ring with China

They already have.....Can't have China flooding the world with all the U.S. currency it holds.

Chinese leadership are very aware of the risk they themselves would face if they did that. China is still an export oriented nation. Chinese elite/leadership have their kids going to US educational institutions, driving around recklessly in quarter-million dollar cars, partying etc. There is a lot of ill gotten gains from Chinese many leaders in US financial institutions. All that information is power, power that could be used to bring down a lot of the Chinese elite if the information were widely dispersed inside China.

I restate that they already have thrown their hat in with China.

It is more of dancing with China (trying to make the US jealous) - which has done some damage with their relations with Japan (who have provided a lot of the money for Thailands projects)..... nothing serious yet. If it became serious - Prayut would be gone very quickly.

Edited January 28, 2015 by bkkcanuck8

[Dogmatix]

Danny Russell proves the proverb, "Empty vessels make most sound". Apart from his own non-meeting with Prayuth, the US continues to engage with the Thai government and the Thai military at every conceivable level. The only cancellation is the tiny USAID contribution which is automatically suspended by act of congress. Military exercises and exchanges continue and the US is still hungry for arms deals.

[Dogmatix]

Thailand could equally give the US a lecture about systemic police brutality towards racial minorities but chooses not to.

[geriatrickid]

I look at the alternative -- the two major 'political' factions engaging in 'democracy' using extreme violence with M79 Grenade launchers, sniper rifles, bloody attacks, bombs --- and somehow the Junta is worse in the eyes of some -- because they took away democracy from the people?... Are you guys joking ? or smoking? What Democracy was taken? There was no Democracy in Thailand in the last year prior to the Junta - it was mob violence. If any one of you here on this thread think that mob violence - intimidation by use of indiscriminate bombs, use of sniper rifles, firing long distance grenades using an M79 launcher is Democracy - then you are brain dead. Children were killed in the name of the Democracy you defend.

How's that Free trade agreement going between Thailand and your homeland, Canada going?

It seems that the Canadian parliamentary committee met and there was a consensus not to do anything for now. Following the coup, the fire went out on a deal that would have impacted $3.3 billion in bilateral trade. Not too much interest expressed by MPs to push the agreement forward. The submissions by interested parties has been dragging along, I wonder why that is.

The US government position is shared by most of the western world with countries like Norway, and Sweden taking a much tougher position.

[Baerboxer]

Would be a catastrophe for Thailand if they throw their hat into the ring with China

Why?

Because eventually China is a historical threat to Thailand and would like to bring into their empirical orbit -- or even acquisition. It is something Vietnam has experienced in the second half of last century. If Thailand wants to become a modern version of Tibet... then keep snuggling up tightly to China. There are a lot of military elite that are historically very weary of getting too close to China, which is why Thailand has had such strong military connections with the United States. Prayut was under the misunderstanding that nothing had changed, so all they had to do was snuggle up closer to China and the US would go running scared. They haven't. If Prayut continues to snuggle up to China and the US does not care.... Prayut himself would be deposed in a coup.

The Americans always have to decide if their response to the donkey is stick or carrot.

Looks like somebody was hoping for one response and got the other.

[Dogmatix]

It is a simple misreading by the military. In the past Thailand was strategically very important, it is not really that important right now to American interests, they pivoted a while ago to improving relationships with others that they were once enemies (i.e. Vietnam and the US have some mutual vested interest which is why Vietnam has been warming up to potentials of having the US military have docking privileges - as a counterbalance to China). Thailand overestimates their value....

I don't think they misread US reaction. What have they lost from the US? Are US companies pulling out? Are Thai exports embargoed? Has the US cancelled any infrastructure projects in Thailand? Has Cobra Gold been cancelled?

[A1Str8]

The US should calm down. Just because they call it democracy over there, in order to fool the masses, it doesn't mean it is really democracy. It's just one of the systems where people are taught to remain silent and obedient.

[Baerboxer]

So the Americans will sit down with YL but NOT with Prayut! Says it all really doesn't it

And sit down with Abishit and sit down with senior current government members.

That really says it all - now the bits you chose to leave out have been added.

Edited January 28, 2015 by Baerboxer

[Evilbaz]

Funny stuff. I have said it before, and I will say it again. Thailand has time and

time again proven itself to be a bit of a backstabbing ally for America, so at this

point I feel America has little interest in Thailand, and in the future it will play

no part in America's " strategy" in South East Asia. This reality is just beginning

to dawn on Thailand's " leadership". Thailand has slowly shifted to China's

corner which is not endearing itself to America either. My guess is we will see

a policy shift of America towards Vietnam, who hate the Chinese. First tip off

will be when America builds a naval base in Vietnam......

As Vietnam is a Communist state, wouldn't the US have to conquer them first?

And bring them American-style Democracy.

That didn't go too well last time they tried.

[Baerboxer]

Funny stuff. I have said it before, and I will say it again. Thailand has time and

time again proven itself to be a bit of a backstabbing ally for America, so at this

point I feel America has little interest in Thailand, and in the future it will play

no part in America's " strategy" in South East Asia. This reality is just beginning

to dawn on Thailand's " leadership". Thailand has slowly shifted to China's

corner which is not endearing itself to America either. My guess is we will see

a policy shift of America towards Vietnam, who hate the Chinese. First tip off

will be when America builds a naval base in Vietnam......

As Vietnam is a Communist state, wouldn't the US have to conquer them first?

And bring them American-style Democracy.

That didn't go too well last time they tried.

Nope - not anymore. America has a naval base on Cuba. Quite willing to be flexible when it suits. Vietnam probably hate the Chinese more than the Americans now so don't be surprised. Or at any lack of American comment on lack of democracy whenever it suits.

[Old Man River]

The US, as well as many other countries leasers and politicians are fully aware of why the Junta are never going to step down until after the "event" , unlike us, they are allowed to discuss the reasons, it's been printed in many broadsheets by now, and yet some farangs here still believe it was to stop more bloodshed!!

Nobody knows what was said in the privacy of these meetings, for all we know the US could have been telling the PTP to refrain from acts of violence, let the Junta control everything because the longer Martial Law continues, then there's more chance of discord and potential for said violence.

Prayut's nose was put out of joint, nothing more, he's correct in what he said, his coup is more than likely one of the reasons why there was no meeting, his subsequent clampdowns on media, and other areas are also factors to take into consideration.

You are so right about the reason for the coup. There are so many regular contributors to Thai Visa forum who offer their opinions as 'experts' on Thailand, and with thousands of posts, who suggest that the army took control to stop "innocent protesters being killed" or to "wipe out corruption". What nonsense, the Amart ordered the army out because of their fear of what may happen after "the event" as you describe it.

IMHO the coup occurred when it did due to the arms caches being found and their perceived intended use. If that was allowed to occur, it would have been much more difficult for the army to step in pursuant to your comments. As you will recall, Gen. Prayuth tried numerous times to get all sides to talk, but when it became obvious that discussions wouldn't work and the threat of a civil war was elevated, he rightly took action.

Hence, I agree with your ultimate reason, but don't rule out the importance of "innocent protesters being killed" as it relates to its timing.

[bkkcanuck8]

I look at the alternative -- the two major 'political' factions engaging in 'democracy' using extreme violence with M79 Grenade launchers, sniper rifles, bloody attacks, bombs --- and somehow the Junta is worse in the eyes of some -- because they took away democracy from the people?... Are you guys joking ? or smoking? What Democracy was taken? There was no Democracy in Thailand in the last year prior to the Junta - it was mob violence. If any one of you here on this thread think that mob violence - intimidation by use of indiscriminate bombs, use of sniper rifles, firing long distance grenades using an M79 launcher is Democracy - then you are brain dead. Children were killed in the name of the Democracy you defend.

How's that Free trade agreement going between Thailand and your homeland, Canada going?

It seems that the Canadian parliamentary committee met and there was a consensus not to do anything for now. Following the coup, the fire went out on a deal that would have impacted $3.3 billion in bilateral trade. Not too much interest expressed by MPs to push the agreement forward. The submissions by interested parties has been dragging along, I wonder why that is.

The US government position is shared by most of the western world with countries like Norway, and Sweden taking a much tougher position.

That [Canada/Thailand] free trade thing was never a thing.... it was a photo-op with no serious intent behind it. It was a study before the study before the negotiations, which only served for photo opportunities.... Cannot lose nothing. (editted because I thought the topic was Canada/Thailand - then I was wondering JDGruden is not Canadian ]

Edited January 28, 2015 by bkkcanuck8

[Tchooptip]

Seems to me the USA is saying it is time to set an election date.

That's why this week Obama went to Saudi Arabia!

[rubl]

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No, Danny Russel did not meet with Prayuth, because Danny Russel is not a diplomat. He is a staffer promoted into a diplomatic position, and he needs to be immediately recalled. By his own admission, when he was appointed to the post in July 2013, he had only worked as a White House staffer, and had never left the four walls of his office. He's a disgrace to both the U.S. and to the diplomatic community. As a U.S. citizen, I am embarrassed by his behavior.

Danny Russel would be acting under instructions from the top man , Russel would be following orders and be briefed thoroughly before even boarding the plane to Thailand, the speech at the UNI would have been written by the State Department.

So, PM Prayut let's a foreign Envoy agitate against the current government in the country that Envoy is visiting?

Now that's democratic.

[Baerboxer]

The US, as well as many other countries leasers and politicians are fully aware of why the Junta are never going to step down until after the "event" , unlike us, they are allowed to discuss the reasons, it's been printed in many broadsheets by now, and yet some farangs here still believe it was to stop more bloodshed!!

Nobody knows what was said in the privacy of these meetings, for all we know the US could have been telling the PTP to refrain from acts of violence, let the Junta control everything because the longer Martial Law continues, then there's more chance of discord and potential for said violence.

Prayut's nose was put out of joint, nothing more, he's correct in what he said, his coup is more than likely one of the reasons why there was no meeting, his subsequent clampdowns on media, and other areas are also factors to take into consideration.

You are so right about the reason for the coup. There are so many regular contributors to Thai Visa forum who offer their opinions as 'experts' on Thailand, and with thousands of posts, who suggest that the army took control to stop "innocent protesters being killed" or to "wipe out corruption". What nonsense, the Amart ordered the army out because of their fear of what may happen after "the event" as you describe it.

Thaksin was desperate to cling on to power until after the event. The opposition wanted him out and themselves in before, and of course after.

Both sides made mistakes and misjudged things in the games they were playing to further their own agendas.

The escalation in violence was the excuse needed to determine the timing. Both sides had acted provocatively to get to that situation. The current government and possibly martial law are not going away for a longtime. Reforms may happen, may be dragged out, and may be not what people expect or want. But the time frame was decided way before the coup.

That doesn't change the fact that Yingluck, and many more, on all sides, have broken rules, acted illegally and openly lied. Should they be punished - yes. Will they - not here, the elite don't really punish one another as that's not in the rules of the game. They will all still be wealthy elites who can and will act above the law and control the wealth and power.