Aussie $ falls again. Baht falls again.

[OZEMADE]

At 0700 AEDT on Friday, the local unit was trading at 77.55 US cents, down from 78.75 cents on Thursday.

On Friday morning it fell as low as 77.20 US cents, the currency's weakest level since July 2009.

The Baht has dropped to Bt24.90 for $1.00 AU Bangkok Bank

Things are not looking good, glad I T/T a heap of cash over before this all happened.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/falls-below-78-us-cents-204114127.html

[Time Traveller]

I'm sorry you're wrong. It's not the Baht that dropped, it's the A$ that has fallen, since $1 now buys less baht

Edited January 30, 2015 by Time Traveller

[Time Traveller]

deleted double post

Edited January 30, 2015 by Time Traveller

[Chao Lao Beach]

So the Euro and AUD are falling apart at the same time, whats the correlation for this ?

[SheungWan]

So the Euro and AUD are falling apart at the same time, whats the correlation for this ?

China.

[inzman]

Amazing Thailand, the baht stays put.

[Suradit69]

So the Euro and AUD are falling apart at the same time, whats the correlation for this ?

China.

Right. The only issue facing the Euro is China. You might want to glance at a newspaper or watch some TV news from time to time.

[zierf1]

Hate to be the messenger of bad news but is it only going to get worse. Fair value is farrrrr below where it is now. Will probably bottom out at 15 baht to the AUD.

[konying]

Reading some AU news outlets, they predicting it will go down to as low as 75. Might be a good time to buy back some AU, because once RBA raises the rates, it will climb back up.

Inflation rates are out , so RBA would have to do something.

Edited January 30, 2015 by konying

[konying]

Hate to be the messenger of bad news but is it only going to get worse. Fair value is farrrrr below where it is now. Will probably bottom out at 15 baht to the AUD.

Would you care to share your sources which stipulate fair value?

[cpofc]

Basically, the bum has fallen out of world commodity prices. Our coal and iron ore, LPG revenue has plummeted. Australia's debt is increasing by over $1 Billion per month and the government is being blocked in the senate from reigning in the debt. Just last month another 200,000 people applied for the Disability Support Pension for Christ's sake. There is already almost 1 million Australians of working age on the disability support pension. Along with an ageing population, a Taxation system that needed a serious and complete overhaul more than 20 years ago, Healthcare Cost blowout - and on, and on..

Now with the US economy said to be recovering, along with the crisis in Europe we are in a really bad place.

The 'Lucky Country' is just about to run out of luck. Much speculation about the Reserve Banks Interest Rate meeting next week. if they cut it, then watch the AUD fall!

This is an edited extract of a speech BCA (Business Council Of Australia) Chief Executive Jennifer Westacott delivered at the Australian Unity Great Australia Day Breakfast. (26JAN15)


....consider our current national trajectory, evidenced by data and events in the last three months of 2014.

• The terms of trade experienced their biggest fall in 50 years.

• Write-downs to economic forecasts in the mid-year budget update wiped billions of dollars off the budget bottom line.

• The deficit has blown out to 40 billion dollars, some 10 billion dollars more than originally forecast.

• Commonwealth net debt has risen to 245 billion dollars this year.

• Interest repayments this year on that debt are 11 billion dollars.

• In October, the unemployment rate hit 6.3 per cent, the highest rate recorded in 12 years.

• It fell back to 6.1 per cent in December, but remember at the height of the Global Financial Crisis it only reached 5.9 per cent for a short period of time.

• Youth unemployment remains stubbornly high.

• Our competitiveness continues to slip and our multifactor productivity is stagnant, making the task of job creation even harder.

So what do all these numbers mean?

Well, the budget is confronting a “pincer movement” from increasing demand for services and from an ageing population.

At the same time as the capacity of the economy to pay is being weakened.

The ageing of our population alone could drive a fiscal gap of 4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product by 2060 – in today’s terms that’s about 65 billion dollars.

A reversion of the terms of trade to their long-run, pre-boom levels could alone increase the deficit by around another 40 billion dollars.

Another global financial crisis, which saw a 70 billion dollar budget deterioration, would turn all of this into a perfect storm.

At the same time:

• the global economy is still sluggish

• there is still enormous global economic volatility

• and our geopolitical environment is very fragile on so many fronts.

If all this doesn’t constitute a burning platform, I’m not sure what does.

Surprisingly, very few commentators, with the exception of The Australian’s Paul Kelly, called these changes out last year.

[aparasher]

Reading some AU news outlets, they predicting it will go down to as low as 75. Might be a good time to buy back some AU, because once RBA raises the rates, it will climb back up.

Inflation rates are out , so RBA would have to do something.

My understanding is that RBA may cut the rates instead of raising them. This will result in AUD falling further down. I think it will be down to 0.65-0.70 by the end of this year. Baht may still be strong at that time due to expected investment from China and Japan. Rice export may do a bit better this year. While tourism could be a bit shaky due to downfall of RUB. Influx of CNY may not be able to fill this gap due to different spending habits/pattern.

This would mean AUD will be more like 22-23 baht similar to some time in 2008.

Better have all your holidays out of your system now...LOL...

Edited January 30, 2015 by aparasher

[MAJIC]

Hate to be the messenger of bad news but is it only going to get worse. Fair value is farrrrr below where it is now. Will probably bottom out at 15 baht to the AUD.

Nonsense!

[rabid old goat]

Basically, the bum has fallen out of world commodity prices. Our coal and iron ore, LPG revenue has plummeted. Australia's debt is increasing by over $1 Billion per month and the government is being blocked in the senate from reigning in the debt. Just last month another 200,000 people applied for the Disability Support Pension for Christ's sake. There is already almost 1 million Australians of working age on the disability support pension. Along with an ageing population, a Taxation system that needed a serious and complete overhaul more than 20 years ago, Healthcare Cost blowout - and on, and on..

Now with the US economy said to be recovering, along with the crisis in Europe we are in a really bad place.

The 'Lucky Country' is just about to run out of luck. Much speculation about the Reserve Banks Interest Rate meeting next week. if they cut it, then watch the AUD fall!

This is an edited extract of a speech BCA (Business Council Of Australia) Chief Executive Jennifer Westacott delivered at the Australian Unity Great Australia Day Breakfast. (26JAN15)

....consider our current national trajectory, evidenced by data and events in the last three months of 2014.

• The terms of trade experienced their biggest fall in 50 years.

• Write-downs to economic forecasts in the mid-year budget update wiped billions of dollars off the budget bottom line.

• The deficit has blown out to 40 billion dollars, some 10 billion dollars more than originally forecast.

• Commonwealth net debt has risen to 245 billion dollars this year.

• Interest repayments this year on that debt are 11 billion dollars.

• In October, the unemployment rate hit 6.3 per cent, the highest rate recorded in 12 years.

• It fell back to 6.1 per cent in December, but remember at the height of the Global Financial Crisis it only reached 5.9 per cent for a short period of time.

• Youth unemployment remains stubbornly high.

• Our competitiveness continues to slip and our multifactor productivity is stagnant, making the task of job creation even harder.

So what do all these numbers mean?

Well, the budget is confronting a “pincer movement” from increasing demand for services and from an ageing population.

At the same time as the capacity of the economy to pay is being weakened.

The ageing of our population alone could drive a fiscal gap of 4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product by 2060 – in today’s terms that’s about 65 billion dollars.

A reversion of the terms of trade to their long-run, pre-boom levels could alone increase the deficit by around another 40 billion dollars.

Another global financial crisis, which saw a 70 billion dollar budget deterioration, would turn all of this into a perfect storm.

At the same time:

• the global economy is still sluggish

• there is still enormous global economic volatility

• and our geopolitical environment is very fragile on so many fronts.

If all this doesn’t constitute a burning platform, I’m not sure what does.

Surprisingly, very few commentators, with the exception of The Australian’s Paul Kelly, called these changes out last year.

BS

[Naam]

Hate to be the messenger of bad news but is it only going to get worse. Fair value is farrrrr below where it is now. Will probably bottom out at 15 baht to the AUD.

Would you care to share your sources which stipulate fair value?

i suspect his sources are related to this:

[konying]

Reading some AU news outlets, they predicting it will go down to as low as 75. Might be a good time to buy back some AU, because once RBA raises the rates, it will climb back up.

Inflation rates are out , so RBA would have to do something.

My understanding is that RBA may cut the rates instead of raising them. This will result in AUD falling further down. I think it will be down to 0.65-0.70 by the end of this year. Baht may still be strong at that time due to expected investment from China and Japan. Rice export may do a bit better this year. While tourism could be a bit shaky due to downfall of RUB. Influx of CNY may not be able to fill this gap due to different spending habits/pattern.

This would mean AUD will be more like 22-23 baht similar to some time in 2008.

Better have all your holidays out of your system now...LOL...

Yes, sorry i was trying to say something along this lines but i guess got lost somewhere half way:)

22 was the rate some 5-6-7 years ago(from memory), Great time to buy AUD

Might be good for AU but certainly not good for Thai exports and expats or just tourists out of AU

[Pungdo]

The A$ bottomed out at 21.? in 2008 just after the crash, it went from just on 33 to that low in a matter of 2 or 3 weeks, had me telling my wife I wasn't sure how much longer I could afford to live here, since then we have had a child (not planned) and my cost of living here has gone up 50%, not looking good for the future if it keeps nose diving.

I bring cash over Monthly, because that is how I get it, I brought some over last week when I saw an unexpected spike in the exchange rate the day the Australian inflation figures were released, I managed to get 25.8+ for the TT

Edited January 31, 2015 by Pungdo

[carlyai]

If i remember correctly the aussie dollar went down to 14 baht to the dollar.

Thats when Cavalit (sorry for the spelling) said 'we will never never never devalue the baht' and then he did.

I dont think the situation is the same as back then, so i recon around 22 would seem about right

[Farang99]

And the GBP!

[Farang99]

When I lived in Malaya, 50 years ago, the baht was fixed with the US$ (=25 baht) and the £ (=40 baht). When I came here in 1997 I (briefly) got 90 baht for £1, which dropped quite quickly to around 70, and it stayed there for several years. Now it is steadily creeping down again 49.3 last seen.

[Champneys]

Amazing Thailand, the baht stays put.

yeah it more than amazing Thailand. But why does it always happen this way?The world must love the Thai baht.

[spud67]

The Aussie and Canuck dollars seem to be tied at the hip when compared to the US dollar. Not surprising as both economies are primarily commodity export driven on top of the internal drivers. The low dollar is not a bad thing for the economy. Foreign interests are more likely to be able to afford purchasing products.

As mentioned above, the US economy appears to be making a stuttering but (so far) persistent recovery. This, however, is not a bad thing; rather, it is the start of long drawn out world-wide recovery. As important as the Chinese economy is becoming, up until just a few years ago, 1/2 of all foreign transactions were American. The American economic engine is still an important driver in the world economy.

The solution to low commodity prices is low commodity prices.

[green job]

I am sure the A$ is fairly safe, As the GBP, The one to watch is the Euro,that is the cause of many of our problems WW.

Once it is finished,and it will finish we will all be better off. Germany have a massive appetite for cheap but must be high quality!! products from Asia,In other words rip off the factories,and the workers.

The gravy train will soon be over Jungs The long term forcast ( 12 Month Euro= Thai BT against the Euro is 34 to 32 mid rate )

The A$ will remain stable.

[bridge2bridge]

Reading some AU news outlets, they predicting it will go down to as low as 75. Might be a good time to buy back some AU, because once RBA raises the rates, it will climb back up.

Inflation rates are out , so RBA would have to do something.

My understanding is that RBA may cut the rates instead of raising them. This will result in AUD falling further down. I think it will be down to 0.65-0.70 by the end of this year. Baht may still be strong at that time due to expected investment from China and Japan. Rice export may do a bit better this year. While tourism could be a bit shaky due to downfall of RUB. Influx of CNY may not be able to fill this gap due to different spending habits/pattern.

This would mean AUD will be more like 22-23 baht similar to some time in 2008.

Better have all your holidays out of your system now...LOL...

Yes, sorry i was trying to say something along this lines but i guess got lost somewhere half way:)

22 was the rate some 5-6-7 years ago(from memory), Great time to buy AUD

Might be good for AU but certainly not good for Thai exports and expats or just tourists out of AU

I have been here since 2006 and the worst i got was 26.50.

The best 33.

[MaEK]

It's not only the AUD but many other currencies. It's a global issue. Most western countries are facing a bad growth in their economies. In order to stimulate the economy the Federal banks lowered their interest rates which is now at lowest levels (sweden has 0.25%). This is done to create a higher export because when you lower your interest rate the currency gets cheaper. Which makes it cheaper for other countries to buy good from your country and more jobs are created which leads to a better economy. Unfortunately almost every country in the western world is doing this and the growth these countries are wishing for is not happening.

Im my case the Swedish Krona is now 3.7tbh and used to be about 5 tbh few months ago.

The interest rate might be changed earliest second quarter next year. Until then the currency will get cheaper. Or you can hope for an economic crisis im Thailand.

[georgemandm]

Basically, the bum has fallen out of world commodity prices. Our coal and iron ore, LPG revenue has plummeted. Australia's debt is increasing by over $1 Billion per month and the government is being blocked in the senate from reigning in the debt. Just last month another 200,000 people applied for the Disability Support Pension for Christ's sake. There is already almost 1 million Australians of working age on the disability support pension. Along with an ageing population, a Taxation system that needed a serious and complete overhaul more than 20 years ago, Healthcare Cost blowout - and on, and on..

Now with the US economy said to be recovering, along with the crisis in Europe we are in a really bad place.

The 'Lucky Country' is just about to run out of luck. Much speculation about the Reserve Banks Interest Rate meeting next week. if they cut it, then watch the AUD fall!

This is an edited extract of a speech BCA (Business Council Of Australia) Chief Executive Jennifer Westacott delivered at the Australian Unity Great Australia Day Breakfast. (26JAN15)

....consider our current national trajectory, evidenced by data and events in the last three months of 2014.

The terms of trade experienced their biggest fall in 50 years.

Write-downs to economic forecasts in the mid-year budget update wiped billions of dollars off the budget bottom line.

The deficit has blown out to 40 billion dollars, some 10 billion dollars more than originally forecast.

Commonwealth net debt has risen to 245 billion dollars this year.

Interest repayments this year on that debt are 11 billion dollars.

In October, the unemployment rate hit 6.3 per cent, the highest rate recorded in 12 years.

It fell back to 6.1 per cent in December, but remember at the height of the Global Financial Crisis it only reached 5.9 per cent for a short period of time.

Youth unemployment remains stubbornly high.

Our competitiveness continues to slip and our multifactor productivity is stagnant, making the task of job creation even harder.

So what do all these numbers mean?

Well, the budget is confronting a pincer movement from increasing demand for services and from an ageing population.

At the same time as the capacity of the economy to pay is being weakened.

The ageing of our population alone could drive a fiscal gap of 4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product by 2060 in todays terms thats about 65 billion dollars.

A reversion of the terms of trade to their long-run, pre-boom levels could alone increase the deficit by around another 40 billion dollars.

Another global financial crisis, which saw a 70 billion dollar budget deterioration, would turn all of this into a perfect storm.

At the same time:

the global economy is still sluggish

there is still enormous global economic volatility

and our geopolitical environment is very fragile on so many fronts.

If all this doesnt constitute a burning platform, Im not sure what does.

Surprisingly, very few commentators, with the exception of The Australians Paul Kelly, called these changes out last year.

Very good read but give me Australia any day over 3 rd world thailand just a good place to r??t thai moles

[starky]

Reading some AU news outlets, they predicting it will go down to as low as 75. Might be a good time to buy back some AU, because once RBA raises the rates, it will climb back up.

Inflation rates are out , so RBA would have to do something.

My understanding is that RBA may cut the rates instead of raising them. This will result in AUD falling further down. I think it will be down to 0.65-0.70 by the end of this year. Baht may still be strong at that time due to expected investment from China and Japan. Rice export may do a bit better this year. While tourism could be a bit shaky due to downfall of RUB. Influx of CNY may not be able to fill this gap due to different spending habits/pattern.

This would mean AUD will be more like 22-23 baht similar to some time in 2008.

Better have all your holidays out of your system now...LOL...

Yes, sorry i was trying to say something along this lines but i guess got lost somewhere half way:)

22 was the rate some 5-6-7 years ago(from memory), Great time to buy AUD

Might be good for AU but certainly not good for Thai exports and expats or just tourists out of AU

I have been here since 2006 and the worst i got was 26.50.

The best 33.

been here since '98 I remember getting as low as 18 baht at one point then it stayed in the low 20's for ages. I remember when it hit 27 I was over the moon and the last couple of years have been great. Didn't last long though and I think this will hurt a lot of Aussies who are here full time very badly. It has fallen so far so fast and looks certain to continue. I wouldn't be surprised id it hit low 20's again. Time to tighten up the belt buckle, tough times ahead..

[12DrinkMore]

Won't be long before all the "poor" Thais will be heading out to live cheaply, buy properties and set up businesses, all with the full legal protection of Western institutions, and claim a few social benefits too.

Stupid Farang!!!

[kalbz]

The Thai's aren't that confident of their economy either.

They are preparing for the worse.

The governments guarantee on term deposits:

11/8/12- 10/8/15 is 50 million baht.

11/8/15 - 10/8/16 will be 25 million baht

11/8/16 - onwards 1 million baht

This is for term deposits, savings accounts are not covered.

The reality is the worlds banks are insolvent. Currencies will continue to be printed (Quantitative easing). To give time for the banks & governments to prepare for the big crash in a few years. We have been on a pure Fiat Currency system since the "Nixon shock" in 1971. Every fiat currency in history has failed, so will ours. The cash we use is currency, not money.

Don't forget, when we deposit our savings in a bank in effect it becomes their money, we have loaned it to them. If they fail we lose. In 2008 the governments guaranteed our accounts to prevent a calamity. Next time expect the same as what happened to Cyprus bank depositors.

Happy days

[sojourner007]

Amazing Thailand, the baht stays put.

yeah it more than amazing Thailand. But why does it always happen this way?The world must love the Thai baht.

it's not so much our love for baht but the action of the Bank of Thailand. They spent a huge amount of their foreign currency reserves to prop up the currency. One would think they should've let it drop to become more competitive but they know better I guess.