Aussie $ falls again. Baht falls again.

[kwaussie]

Nooooooooooooooo

I'm getting married next month. Promised 500k doury 4-5 months ago. $ way near 30tbh. Can I negotiate it with her parents? Or douries are exchange rate independent? Well bloody they should be. I'm too scared to calculate it based on today's exchange. Could someone give me the figure please?

100k tops and less if she has been married before.

Just think long and hard about working and saving for that money before handing over and seeing it get frittered away.

[starky]

If i remember correctly the aussie dollar went down to 14 baht to the dollar.

Thats when Cavalit (sorry for the spelling) said 'we will never never never devalue the baht' and then he did.

I dont think the situation is the same as back then, so i recon around 22 would seem about right

When did it go down to this rate? Are you relying on your memory or facts? I have been sending money to Thailand since 2004 and the lowest rate I ever received was 21 baht to the A$ and this was, to the best of my recollection, in the latter half of 2008, October/November I think. It would have had to be prior to 2004, if ever. I think we might see it around B22 but here's hoping not. Just have to wait and see and ride it out.

sorry mate but late 90's early millenium it was well under that a lot of guys have been here long before 2004

It touched 21 baht to the AUD in 2008

No worries mate but si thea was talking about it never being below that. I can't ever recollect 14 but I clearly remember 18 and others that were here before 98 might remember lower than that. Having said that we were pretty spoiled in the over 30 baht times of the last couple of years, may be a long time before we ever see that again. Personally I transfer around 30 000 Aus $ at a time and in real terms only a few months ago that got me close to a million baht if the plummet continues (and just for arguments sake lets say it hits 22 baht) then I am short a good 300 000 baht in one transaction, which I can wear no drama's but for some here is certainly not an amount to be sneezed at.

[green job]

Nooooooooooooooo

I'm getting married next month. Promised 500k doury 4-5 months ago. $ way near 30tbh. Can I negotiate it with her parents? Or douries are exchange rate independent? Well bloody they should be. I'm too scared to calculate it based on today's exchange. Could someone give me the figure please?

What!! You as a ferang are under no obligation at all to pay any Sin sod You are being conned period a doury is paid by Thais only (or should be) as it is used for things that do not involve us.

There is a very good chapter about this on Stickman Bangkok Maybe better Run

[louse1953]

So the Euro and AUD are falling apart at the same time, whats the correlation for this ?

It's all a game by the big boys and the small fry are suffering.

[louse1953]

So the Euro and AUD are falling apart at the same time, whats the correlation for this ?

China.

Right. The only issue facing the Euro is China. You might want to glance at a newspaper or watch some TV news from time to time.

Greece!!!

[12DrinkMore]

it's not so much our love for baht but the action of the Bank of Thailand. They spent a huge amount of their foreign currency reserves to prop up the currency. One would think they should've let it drop to become more competitive but they know better I guess.

Where have you pulled that nonsense from? Under the bar stool?

Just go and check out the data published by the BoT.

http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/StatInternationalReserves.aspx

And please indicate over which period the BoT has been spending significant amounts of foreign currency reserves.

As an example, from 22.11.2013 to 23.01.2015 the forex reserves calculated in USD went from 160 billion to 147 billion, and calculated in THB from 5.1 trillion to 4.7 trillion.

A drop of 8% in both USD and THB terms, which can easily be accounted for by the drop in Western currencies.

BoT Reserves.jpg

But don't allow facts to obscure opinions. That would be boring.

Quoting from the article in Barrons.com "Are Asia’s Currencies Too Strong?"

of 29/1/15 by DBS chief economist, David Carbon (not sure you can freely access it online): "Malaysia and Thailand have also seen significant drops in foreign reserves. In all cases, falling reserves appears to owe to central bank efforts over the past six months to cling to a rising dollar more than a basket policy suggests appropriate, informal or otherwise."

But perhaps your information sources are better than those of a chief economist of a major Asian bank, who must be just writing 'nonsense' in a respectable US publication

Well, the above source is direct from the Bank of Thailand.

And this is from the Monetary Authority of SIngapore.

http://www.mas.gov.sg/Statistics/Reserve-Statistics/Official-Foreign-Reserves.aspx

The MAS declared USD 273 billion in forex reserves at the end of July 2014 and USD 256 billion at the end of December, which is a drop of 6%, again most probably due to the EUR falling down a hill.

I would say that my quoted sources are probably the exactly same as the economist. (Economist: )

So we have to discuss whether a 6 to 8% decrease in the USD valued reserves is due to

1. a deliberate attempt to strengthen the currency.

2. flows back home as investors withdraw money from Asia.

3. currency fluctuations.

He reckons it is an attempt to strengthen the currency. Well economists rarely get very much correct, and it is common for them to be published in journals. Krugmann is a total numbnut but still has a weekly column,

Anyway, the clue is in his reference basket, "dollars, euros and yen".

Of that lot, the JPY has plummeted along with the EUR, so it is hardly surprising that the Asian currencies have appreciated. The Asians are trying to keep their currencies more or less in line with each other, to prevent the ludicrous race to the bottom the Western Central Bankers are taking.

"Trash the Cash and we'll have a recovery". Yeah, sure, that'll work, won't it.

Anyway reading through his article, I'll pop him into the box of, "economists numnuts".

As an example, he starts off with

"A strange brew of weak growth, falling inflation and stronger currencies is prompting more monetary easing in Asia."

But just a few lines down he says exactly the opposite

"Regional growth certainly isn’t accelerating but neither is it falling appreciably. Industrial production continues to run north at a steady 5%-6% clip, in sharp contrast to Europe"

Yep, another useless economist spouting disconnected rubbish.

And what is this? "Regional growth certainly isn’t accelerating"

He is clearly clueless about what that means, as it would imply an economy growing at say 4% this year, 6% next year, 8% the year after. As if steady growth is not enough.

Economists and bankers have led us into this mess, and they are certainly not going to lead us out.

He is an economist working for a bank, so essentially the worst of the worst.

Consigned to the bin.

[zaZa9]

If i remember correctly the aussie dollar went down to 14 baht to the dollar.

Thats when Cavalit (sorry for the spelling) said 'we will never never never devalue the baht' and then he did.

I dont think the situation is the same as back then, so i recon around 22 would seem about right

When did it go down to this rate? Are you relying on your memory or facts? I have been sending money to Thailand since 2004 and the lowest rate I ever received was 21 baht to the A$ and this was, to the best of my recollection, in the latter half of 2008, October/November I think. It would have had to be prior to 2004, if ever. I think we might see it around B22 but here's hoping not. Just have to wait and see and ride it out.

Totally agree

14 is BS

[bob strutt]

gee, built house, bought land, bought tractor and put mill in thia bank at 3.5, all said i was crazy, how bad is aud dollar going to get, so many old age pensioners struggling here now, hate to be i told you so, let labor back and it will get real bad, the lucky coutry is past its time, it is so expensive and a law for every thing,

[bassman]

Don't fret you Canadians and Aussies and the US shale oil producers (not the country). Commodities cycle, currently the cycle is headed down. Commodities will again head back up always happens. In 1996 oil had dropped to $15 a barrel last year it was over a hundred. Both Canada and Australia are huge countries with massive natural resources and relatively small populations, hang in there and be prudent, next 2-5 years will see commodities head north again. The worlds population is over 7 billion now and headed to 9 or 10 billion by mid century and there are only so many natural resources to exploit.

[TPI]

Hate to be the messenger of bad news but is it only going to get worse. Fair value is farrrrr below where it is now. Will probably bottom out at 15 baht to the AUD.

Oh please! Bite your tongue, 16 years ago it was around 17 or 18 to the dollar, it's very painful to check up the conversion rate every day and watch the tumble!

[stat088]

If i remember correctly the aussie dollar went down to 14 baht to the dollar.

Thats when Cavalit (sorry for the spelling) said 'we will never never never devalue the baht' and then he did.

I dont think the situation is the same as back then, so i recon around 22 would seem about right

When did it go down to this rate? Are you relying on your memory or facts? I have been sending money to Thailand since 2004 and the lowest rate I ever received was 21 baht to the A$ and this was, to the best of my recollection, in the latter half of 2008, October/November I think. It would have had to be prior to 2004, if ever. I think we might see it around B22 but here's hoping not. Just have to wait and see and ride it out.

sorry mate but late 90's early millenium it was well under that a lot of guys have been here long before 2004

It touched 21 baht to the AUD in 2008

No worries mate but si thea was talking about it never being below that. I can't ever recollect 14 but I clearly remember 18 and others that were here before 98 might remember lower than that. Having said that we were pretty spoiled in the over 30 baht times of the last couple of years, may be a long time before we ever see that again. Personally I transfer around 30 000 Aus $ at a time and in real terms only a few months ago that got me close to a million baht if the plummet continues (and just for arguments sake lets say it hits 22 baht) then I am short a good 300 000 baht in one transaction, which I can wear no drama's but for some here is certainly not an amount to be sneezed at.

If it goes below 20 i will be doing a little dance. I get paid in baht and have been waiting a long time to send money back to OZ. Happy days are here again.

[konying]

less than an hour ago exchange rate offered at a booth 25 baht to $1au

[Robby nz]

NZ $ has also started on the way down it was rising against the baht and peaked at 24.9974 on the 12/1/15 since then it has dropped steadily to 23.1165 right now.

I use the exchange rate from my NZ bank for that is where my $ are transferred from.

One commentator linked the drop to the Swiss franc, dont know how that works.

[I say]

Nooooooooooooooo

I'm getting married next month. Promised 500k doury 4-5 months ago. $ way near 30tbh. Can I negotiate it with her parents? Or douries are exchange rate independent? Well bloody they should be. I'm too scared to calculate it based on today's exchange. Could someone give me the figure please?

What!! You as a ferang are under no obligation at all to pay any Sin sod You are being conned period a doury is paid by Thais only (or should be) as it is used for things that do not involve us.

There is a very good chapter about this on Stickman Bangkok Maybe better Run

.........run, as I did. Never been sorry about it.

[louse1953]

Bloody hell,i'm drinking Archa as it is,another baht down and i'll be lining up for a 10 baht shot of lao khao.

[louse1953]

Basically, the bum has fallen out of world commodity prices. Our coal and iron ore, LPG revenue has plummeted. Australia's debt is increasing by over $1 Billion per month and the government is being blocked in the senate from reigning in the debt. Just last month another 200,000 people applied for the Disability Support Pension for Christ's sake. There is already almost 1 million Australians of working age on the disability support pension. Along with an ageing population, a Taxation system that needed a serious and complete overhaul more than 20 years ago, Healthcare Cost blowout - and on, and on..

Now with the US economy said to be recovering, along with the crisis in Europe we are in a really bad place.

The 'Lucky Country' is just about to run out of luck. Much speculation about the Reserve Banks Interest Rate meeting next week. if they cut it, then watch the AUD fall!

This is an edited extract of a speech BCA (Business Council Of Australia) Chief Executive Jennifer Westacott delivered at the Australian Unity Great Australia Day Breakfast. (26JAN15)

....consider our current national trajectory, evidenced by data and events in the last three months of 2014.

• The terms of trade experienced their biggest fall in 50 years.

• Write-downs to economic forecasts in the mid-year budget update wiped billions of dollars off the budget bottom line.

• The deficit has blown out to 40 billion dollars, some 10 billion dollars more than originally forecast.

• Commonwealth net debt has risen to 245 billion dollars this year.

• Interest repayments this year on that debt are 11 billion dollars.

• In October, the unemployment rate hit 6.3 per cent, the highest rate recorded in 12 years.

• It fell back to 6.1 per cent in December, but remember at the height of the Global Financial Crisis it only reached 5.9 per cent for a short period of time.

• Youth unemployment remains stubbornly high.

• Our competitiveness continues to slip and our multifactor productivity is stagnant, making the task of job creation even harder.

So what do all these numbers mean?

Well, the budget is confronting a “pincer movement” from increasing demand for services and from an ageing population.

At the same time as the capacity of the economy to pay is being weakened.

The ageing of our population alone could drive a fiscal gap of 4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product by 2060 – in today’s terms that’s about 65 billion dollars.

A reversion of the terms of trade to their long-run, pre-boom levels could alone increase the deficit by around another 40 billion dollars.

Another global financial crisis, which saw a 70 billion dollar budget deterioration, would turn all of this into a perfect storm.

At the same time:

• the global economy is still sluggish

• there is still enormous global economic volatility

• and our geopolitical environment is very fragile on so many fronts.

If all this doesn’t constitute a burning platform, I’m not sure what does.

Surprisingly, very few commentators, with the exception of The Australian’s Paul Kelly, called these changes out last year.

BS

You took my usual reply to the BCA and their fellow travellers right outa my mouth.

[louse1953]

The A$ bottomed out at 21.? in 2008 just after the crash, it went from just on 33 to that low in a matter of 2 or 3 weeks, had me telling my wife I wasn't sure how much longer I could afford to live here, since then we have had a child (not planned) and my cost of living here has gone up 50%, not looking good for the future if it keeps nose diving.

I bring cash over Monthly, because that is how I get it, I brought some over last week when I saw an unexpected spike in the exchange rate the day the Australian inflation figures were released, I managed to get 25.8+ for the TT

I can remember 17 baht in 98.Sleazy hotels and street hookers that hadn't seen me since my backpacking days were glad to welcome me back to the low income side of Bangkok.Still had a great time.Lao discos on Thonburi side still bring back fond memories.

[Si Thea01]

If i remember correctly the aussie dollar went down to 14 baht to the dollar.

Thats when Cavalit (sorry for the spelling) said 'we will never never never devalue the baht' and then he did.

I dont think the situation is the same as back then, so i recon around 22 would seem about right

When did it go down to this rate? Are you relying on your memory or facts? I have been sending money to Thailand since 2004 and the lowest rate I ever received was 21 baht to the A$ and this was, to the best of my recollection, in the latter half of 2008, October/November I think. It would have had to be prior to 2004, if ever. I think we might see it around B22 but here's hoping not. Just have to wait and see and ride it out.

sorry mate but late 90's early millenium it was well under that a lot of guys have been here long before 2004

Thanks for clarifying that. Hope there isn't another shock like that.

[louse1953]

When I lived in Malaya, 50 years ago, the baht was fixed with the US$ (=25 baht) and the £ (=40 baht). When I came here in 1997 I (briefly) got 90 baht for £1, which dropped quite quickly to around 70, and it stayed there for several years. Now it is steadily creeping down again 49.3 last seen.

I can remember just after the Yanks got booted out of Thailand,and i was the only farang here,it was $US1/20 b and $A1/25 b.Now they were the days,didn't need Viagra then.Free happy 2 hours in Patpong.

[louse1953]

Nooooooooooooooo

I'm getting married next month. Promised 500k doury 4-5 months ago. $ way near 30tbh. Can I negotiate it with her parents? Or douries are exchange rate independent? Well bloody they should be. I'm too scared to calculate it based on today's exchange. Could someone give me the figure please?

You know how many buffalos you can buy for 500k?

[louse1953]

Nooooooooooooooo

I'm getting married next month. Promised 500k doury 4-5 months ago. $ way near 30tbh. Can I negotiate it with her parents? Or douries are exchange rate independent? Well bloody they should be. I'm too scared to calculate it based on today's exchange. Could someone give me the figure please?

Sell your Title.

Not worth much since Abbott devalued them.

[louse1953]

If i remember correctly the aussie dollar went down to 14 baht to the dollar.

Thats when Cavalit (sorry for the spelling) said 'we will never never never devalue the baht' and then he did.

I dont think the situation is the same as back then, so i recon around 22 would seem about right

When did it go down to this rate? Are you relying on your memory or facts? I have been sending money to Thailand since 2004 and the lowest rate I ever received was 21 baht to the A$ and this was, to the best of my recollection, in the latter half of 2008, October/November I think. It would have had to be prior to 2004, if ever. I think we might see it around B22 but here's hoping not. Just have to wait and see and ride it out.

sorry mate but late 90's early millenium it was well under that a lot of guys have been here long before 2004

Off topic but Steven Wright the king of the one liners.

[BigBadGeordie]

Nooooooooooooooo

I'm getting married next month. Promised 500k doury 4-5 months ago. $ way near 30tbh. Can I negotiate it with her parents? Or douries are exchange rate independent? Well bloody they should be. I'm too scared to calculate it based on today's exchange. Could someone give me the figure please?

You know how many buffalos you can buy for 500k?

A dowry is given by the parents of the girl, what you are talking about is a "sin sod" or bride price.

Also a prime bull buffalo in Buriram (I assume you mean a Farang one, fresh from the airport) commands a massive price. Untill the ATM says "please contact the issuing bank".

Only joking, perhaps......

[louse1953]

Nooooooooooooooo

I'm getting married next month. Promised 500k doury 4-5 months ago. $ way near 30tbh. Can I negotiate it with her parents? Or douries are exchange rate independent? Well bloody they should be. I'm too scared to calculate it based on today's exchange. Could someone give me the figure please?

What!! You as a ferang are under no obligation at all to pay any Sin sod You are being conned period a doury is paid by Thais only (or should be) as it is used for things that do not involve us.

There is a very good chapter about this on Stickman Bangkok Maybe better Run

Ah, Stickman,the bible on all thinks Thainess,god help us all.

[sir charles IV]

Sin sod. Yes it is a sin and should I tell them to sod off? Talk about being stuck between a rock and a hard place. The girl is worth it. Money comes and goes. Just gotta come up with the shortfall thanks to the exchange rate. I get it that's it's not compulsory but me and my big mouth. The entire village is apparently awaiting the arrival the ATM. We decided to do it there as the father is the elder and wants to show off his youngest daughters husband off to the population. They love me to pieces (have not given them a penny....well not yet!). Anyhow thanks for the tips it's my big mouth so I gotta fix it. Any of those dodgy 1000tbh notes still around??lol

[sir charles IV]

Oh and thanks for explaining the difference between dowry and sin sod. I get it now. Well it's $19,600 VS $16,600. Three grand more hmmmm. Couple of more months on Vegemite and toast should do the trick. It's all about saving face hey??!! Am I being dragged (conned) into the superficial world of thai culture? Me thinks so.

[green job]

Nooooooooooooooo

I'm getting married next month. Promised 500k doury 4-5 months ago. $ way near 30tbh. Can I negotiate it with her parents? Or douries are exchange rate independent? Well bloody they should be. I'm too scared to calculate it based on today's exchange. Could someone give me the figure please?

What!! You as a ferang are under no obligation at all to pay any Sin sod You are being conned period a doury is paid by Thais only (or should be) as it is used for things that do not involve us.

There is a very good chapter about this on Stickman Bangkok Maybe better Run

Ah, Stickman,the bible on all thinks Thainess,god help us all.

Yep It seems to be, Sin Sod transulated into English means We got cash out of a ferang mug. The Sin part is Cash,,the Sod part is Ferlang.

Dont do it mate,If they want cash they are no good. Remember Thais are all about show, You WILL regret it later,they will take you for all you are worth

[Thai at Heart]

All this the "Thai manipulate their currency bs" is tiresome.

They are targeting inflation and asset inflation. Its been rising for years as have asset prices so interest rates have been highish.

Expect a drop soon with oil dropping but it won't help the baht very much

[green job]

All this the "Thai manipulate their currency bs" is tiresome.

They are targeting inflation and asset inflation. Its been rising for years as have asset prices so interest rates have been highish.

Expect a drop soon with oil dropping but it won't help the baht very much

Errrrrrr Arrrrrrrrr Ummmmm Yes I dont think, Thais do nothing,is is done for them,they have no Idea, With a pegged BT there is nothing they

can do/

[green job]

Nooooooooooooooo

I'm getting married next month. Promised 500k doury 4-5 months ago. $ way near 30tbh. Can I negotiate it with her parents? Or douries are exchange rate independent? Well bloody they should be. I'm too scared to calculate it based on today's exchange. Could someone give me the figure please?

You know how many buffalos you can buy for 500k?

A dowry is given by the parents of the girl, what you are talking about is a "sin sod" or bride price.

Also a prime bull buffalo in Buriram (I assume you mean a Farang one, fresh from the airport) commands a massive price. Untill the ATM says "please contact the issuing bank".

Only joking, perhaps......

Then the become right Cows always mooing about money,, Winge Winge Daring my uncle has plobrem wth pickup,,,,My sister has bad lice crop, we need new tlacktor. My ones wanted a new tracktor so i bought them this