Patong is dead.

[xylophone]

1 hour ago, CantSpell said:

Seems you have the wrong data again or you are maybe looking at obsolete business...

 

Anyway, here are some data that are not from TAT:

 

http://www.c9hotelworks.com/news/russian-rebound-tops-c9-hotelworks-new-phuket-update.php

 

Seems like you may have blinkers on and are quoting stats from just a select few hotels.........and anyway the MAIN point is that this place is suffering from lack of SPEND, so no matter how many Russians and Chinese come here, if much of the money is prepaid in their home country and they spend little or are "tight a*ses" then Patong will continue to suffer.

 

As DrDave said small businesses here are struggling and even in the nightlife/entertainment/club areas it is as plain as the nose on your face.

Edited February 6, 2017 by xylophone

[Bulldozer Dawn]

11 hours ago, Old Croc said:

Yes.

There wasn't yet a news thread when I posted this here.

My reasoning was to point out that these machines are dangerous, and detrimental to tourism, because of the corruption that allows them to flourish in unreasonable numbers, in the wrong places and without any safety guidelines nor practises.

I'm not personally against their existence here, but strongly consider that need to be regulated and confined to dedicated zones and not be allowed to operate on crowded swimming beaches.

Jetski accidents are encouraged in Phuket.  It is an industry.

[xylophone]

8 hours ago, CantSpell said:

Seems you have the wrong data again or you are maybe looking at obsolete business...

 

Anyway, here are some data that are not from TAT:

 

http://www.c9hotelworks.com/news/russian-rebound-tops-c9-hotelworks-new-phuket-update.php

 

A CAUTIONARY TALE............... however this one is true, not a fable;

 

In the late 1970s I was working for a UK company (part of the multinational Xerox group, called Rank Xerox and in 1978 the UK company made a profit of £120 million, however all was not well in the UK company because senior management made a decision to target "numbers", that being the numbers of photocopiers sold and these managers were paid very handsomely for achieving these targets.

 

Such was the push to achieve these numbers (the hierarchy jokingly referred to them as tin boxes) that many people were paid large bonuses for achieving them and also old and outdated photocopiers were dragged out of warehouses, given a quick makeover and a respray and were sold out of warehouses in large "promotional deals".

 

Many of the sales folk like myself actually hated this push because the products were of poor quality and customer service was not considered, so of course when these malfunctioning machines were bought and soon went wrong, the Rank Xerox reputation suffered. Add to this the fact that the company had done very little to stem the tide of Japanese photocopiers or indeed increase the quality of the ones they made, so you had a perfect storm so to speak.

 

Numbers were the name of the game and much money was paid in making sure these numbers were achieved, however in 1982 the UK company made a profit of just £2 million and it was in dire straits.

 

It's all very well achieving numbers, but when these "tin boxes" were sold at discounted prices, they did nothing to add to the revenue stream and indeed damaged the reputation of the company.

 

So what has that to do with Patong at the moment..........quite easy to see if you look, because numbers were the name of the game irrespective of the quality of those numbers; revenue (spend if you like) was not considered and fell away quite sharply and reputation suffered. Look familiar?

 

If you don't believe me then seek out a book called "Prophets in the Dark" which is a book regarding the precarious state that Xerox worldwide found itself in in 1982/3 and how it dragged itself back from the edge of the precipice. Although it mentions low quality, poor service, and losing touch with its customers what it fails to mention is the malaise that was inherent certainly in the UK operation and I suspect many more around the world, because this would highlight the fact that senior manager got it terribly wrong with regards to some basic principles of selling, customer service and providing quality. They focussed on numbers and not revenue and profit.

 

I know because I was there at the time, I experienced it and I witnessed it first hand and indeed when I was made a senior manager, I did everything in my power to ensure that my team offered the best in customer service and sold quality products, however that was not what senior management wanted, so I resigned and moved to New Zealand.

 

I see the parallels here and they are so obvious and so plain. 

[CantSpell]

17 hours ago, xylophone said:

So what has that to do with Patong at the moment..........quite easy to see if you look, because numbers were the name of the game irrespective of the quality of those numbers; revenue (spend if you like) was not considered and fell away quite sharply and reputation suffered. Look familiar?

 

Although it mentions low quality, poor service, and losing touch with its customers what it fails to mention is the malaise that was inherent certainly in the UK operation and I suspect many more around the world, because this would highlight the fact that senior manager got it terribly wrong with regards to some basic principles of selling, customer service and providing quality. They focussed on numbers.

 

I see the parallels here and they are so obvious and so plain. 

So we agree then, as this is what is happening right now in Phukey (maybe not on Bangla tho): numbers... up...

 

Now you and the previous poster read what you intend only it seems.

Only data provided by C9 was airport arrival increased Year on year by 18% in 2016 compared to 13% increase the year before...

 

We do agree,  those number do not go to Bangla and the massage parlors of your friends...

 

World is changing, Bangla is not trendy those days apparently but with the number of developments in the pipeline for Patong and Phuket, the hotels owners and operators, for sure, do not believe the numbers are down....

I heard about a few 600 rooms that are in the planning and one is in Patong.

[xylophone]

6 minutes ago, CantSpell said:

So we agree then, as this is what is happening right now in Phukey (maybe not on Bangla tho): numbers... up...

 

Now you and the previous poster read what you intend only it seems.

Only data provided by C9 was airport arrival increased Year on year by 18% in 2016 compared to 13% increase the year before...

 

We do agree,  those number do not go to Bangla and the massage parlors of your friends...

 

World is changing, Bangla is not trendy those days apparently but with the number of developments in the pipeline for Patong and Phuket, the hotels owners and operators, for sure, do not believe the numbers are down....

I heard about a few 600 rooms that are in the planning and one is in Patong.

Actually I don't agree because I don't believe anything I hear from organisations which have vested interests in spouting of numbers so that they can look good and again I quote the finance minister who inflated the GDP figures – – if he can do that, then who's to say what figures mean what here.

 

But let's play your game for a minute, and of course you won't have any vested interests or quote numbers from anyone who has vested interests in seeing them up, so all I can say is that out of more than a dozen businesses I know, and only a couple of massage parlours by the way, the rest are small hotels, clubs and restaurants, spend is way down.

 

So maybe Bangla is not what it used to be and I have no problem with that because it isn't, but then again the beach is nowhere near as crowded as I've seen it in previous years, especially with this idiocy going on with sun loungers etc and Jungceylon is up and down, so where are they going?

 

All very well to talk the numbers up, whether they are true or false, but apart from low rent Chinese and Russians, the place still is not humming like it used to be.

 

Just a point on the airport numbers, as other folks have pointed out, they could well include people stopping off and passing through, or even tour parties of cheap Chinese coming for three days and leaving and although that pushes the numbers up, as I said in my other post, numbers are not what this place needs – – spend is.

 

As for hotels, and occupancy, I have no idea why they decide to artificially inflate their occupancy rates (which they do and this from an executive of one of them) other than the fact that they may be trying to "outdo one another".

 

So in amongst all of this mass of figures, stats and numbers as well as cheap tourists, the sad fact remains that spend is down.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CantSpell]

On 2/5/2017 at 0:29 PM, xylophone said:

Ahh, but tourist numbers are up says TAT and a few other people on this forum, however more rational thinking folks understand that numbers don't equal spend or profit for that matter and that is certainly the case here.

 

That's the problem with numbers games because you can't control the quality and as has been mentioned many times before the low rent Chinese and Russians are here in ever-increasing numbers and just one example last night really gelled all the others that I have seen and often mentioned here – – five Russian folk (probably in their late 20s/early 30s) tried to get into a really heaving Smiley Bar last night and were refused admittance because they wanted to bring the drinks they already had in their hands into the bar with them, plus the plastic bag full of beers that they had just bought in the 7-Eleven opposite!! And they couldn't understand why they were not allowed to do that........low rent and some!

 

The problem is that for businesses who are struggling, it's no joke.

 

So actually we do somehow agree but what is kind of surprising me is that is took those people you mention as struggling over 7-8 years to see what was right in fron of their eyes????

 

Kata used to be the Scandinavian / German part of the Island, 90% of hotels booked with scans= 8-10 years ago, all of them gone 7-8 ago when Russian started coming.

German were quite everywhere in big number too, started to leave the Island 7-8 years ago when the Russian arrived

That period was Russian in high Season, Chinese in Low Season already.. 7 Years ago...

Only a few French remained in significant numbers, mainly retired or couples though so not "Bangla addicts"...

 

Patong has always been more "mixed" with nationalities but also until 5-6 years ago with a big trend on Ozzies: where are those I wonder now?

 

Maybe they were repelled by the Taxi scams, the tuktuk scams, the "I beat the crap out of you darn drunk" reality, the Restaurant scams, the massage scams, the Jetski scams, the "I can't name them all" scams...

 

Did any of those business operators who are now struggling do anything to improve the situation (rethorical Q:I know most cannot fight the mafia)...

 

Today reality is probably China / Russia and has already been the case for over 5-6 years, just strange people start to realize only now...

 

[xylophone]

2 minutes ago, CantSpell said:

So actually we do somehow agree but what is kind of surprising me is that is took those people you mention as struggling over 7-8 years to see what was right in fron of their eyes????

 

Kata used to be the Scandinavian / German part of the Island, 90% of hotels booked with scans= 8-10 years ago, all of them gone 7-8 ago when Russian started coming.

German were quite everywhere in big number too, started to leave the Island 7-8 years ago when the Russian arrived

That period was Russian in high Season, Chinese in Low Season already.. 7 Years ago...

Only a few French remained in significant numbers, mainly retired or couples though so not "Bangla addicts"...

 

Patong has always been more "mixed" with nationalities but also until 5-6 years ago with a big trend on Ozzies: where are those I wonder now?

 

Maybe they were repelled by the Taxi scams, the tuktuk scams, the "I beat the crap out of you darn drunk" reality, the Restaurant scams, the massage scams, the Jetski scams, the "I can't name them all" scams...

 

Did any of those business operators who are now struggling do anything to improve the situation (rethorical Q:I know most cannot fight the mafia)...

 

Today reality is probably China / Russia and has already been the case for over 5-6 years, just strange people start to realize only now...

 

It seems like we have an agreement in some respects, and I'm not sure that the China/Russia entourage has already been the case for over 5 to 6 years, however you are right that the demographics changed and changed quite markedly as you have pointed out.

 

I think the problem with a lot of small businesses is that it is extremely difficult for them to "change" – – what does a small guest house change into, or what does a restaurant change into (or a bar for that matter) and so on because it's all very well to say that businesses should change, and with some businesses that is fairly easy, but with others not so.

 

I've been in large multinational organisations who have had to change, and their options can be much more varied because of the size of them, strange as it may seem, but small businesses are pretty much stuck in many respects.

 

I think it was on this thread, when I and a few others posted that the demographics started to change quite a few years ago, however the smaller businesses like the bars and clubs didn't see it (or didn't want to see it) so they were and are the first to start to struggle, but over the past year, a large supermarket, a chain of popular restaurants, other individual restaurants and guest houses and small hotels have also started to struggle, so I believe it's more widespread.

 

 

[CantSpell]

39 minutes ago, xylophone said:

I think it was on this thread, when I and a few others posted that the demographics started to change quite a few years ago, however the smaller businesses like the bars and clubs didn't see it (or didn't want to see it) so they were and are the first to start to struggle, but over the past year, a large supermarket, a chain of popular restaurants, other individual restaurants and guest houses and small hotels have also started to struggle, so I believe it's more widespread.

I would say yes and no...

 

Yes it is currently a problem due to a few factors both external and internal: .

- Zero dollar tour crackdown have actually not allowed numbers to be as high as they were supposed to be (they are up but not as much UP as expected)

- Unfortunate event of Mid Oct and a year of mourning is not helping the party atmosphere.

- THB closing to 37 for 1 US... Starting to be expensive to holiday here.

 

Now, if business can understand the wave they were in 10-15 years ago is LONG gone, their is a lot coming to the horizon but which is totally different.

Chinese contrary to the belief of most are BIG spenders...

Zero dollar tours already were a proof of that but that was kind of hidden:

- you know the 3K Speed boat trips to Phi Phi and such? Chinese guides were selling them 6k to chinese tourists ... (3k back to china to compensate zero profit on tour sale).

But the zero dollar chinese clients = 50 years old and up

 

The new trend in the coming 10 years = Chinese millenials: no tour group, individual travellers, mainly couple, renting motos, going around, shopping 3k per 3k (per item) in shopping malls and in A/C restaurants...

Different from the European cheap charlies buying 120B souvenirs at tourist market for sure..

 

Look around, you will start to see some already... And it is only the beginning..

 

[Lashay]

2 hours ago, CantSpell said:

Patong has always been more "mixed" with nationalities but also until 5-6 years ago with a big trend on Ozzies: where are those I wonder now?

 

Maybe they were repelled by the Taxi scams, the tuktuk scams, the "I beat the crap out of you darn drunk" reality, the Restaurant scams, the massage scams, the Jetski scams, the "I can't name them all" scams...

 

1 hour ago, CantSpell said:

 

Chinese contrary to the belief of most are BIG spenders...

Zero dollar tours already were a proof of that but that was kind of hidden:

- you know the 3K Speed boat trips to Phi Phi and such? Chinese guides were selling them 6k to chinese tourists ... (3k back to china to compensate zero profit on tour sale).

But the zero dollar chinese clients = 50 years old and up

 

The new trend in the coming 10 years = Chinese millenials: no tour group, individual travellers, mainly couple, renting motos, going around, shopping 3k per 3k (per item) in shopping malls and in A/C restaurants...

Different from the European cheap charlies buying 120B souvenirs at tourist market for sure..

 

Look around, you will start to see some already... And it is only the beginning..

 

Where are the Ozzies? By all accounts either home or Bali.

 

They were having a boom 5-6 years ago and now the crash has come, so they are either staying closer to home or going places  where the AUD goes further. Little or nothing Thailand can do about that beyond sink the baht.

 

While not denying the scams and prices are a huge problem they are not the biggest problem, as scams and prices were an issue 5-6 years ago and Aussies were here in mass numbers. For most of the source markets that go though a rise and fall other external influences can always be found.

 

As to the Chinese, yep they pay above odds for things, but things like that speedboat. If they follow their normal SOP, as been seen with Hotels, massage and shops the breakdown probably works like this

 

6000 cost to Chinese tourist

1500-2000 to boat operator (force bulk discounts)

4000-4500 back to china

 

And continuing their longer term SOP, once established they will either buy up the thai operator on the cheap or set up their own speedboat company and move all their customers to that, bankrupting the local operator who is now dependent on them. By time they are done only money remaining in Thailand will be salary for staff they cannot replace with Chinese and kickbacks to authorities

 

And as far as overall spend, average Chinese Tourist is in Thailand around 7 days, average time in Phuket 2.4 days. So yeah per day they spend more, but in comparison with average western tourist here 14 days plus their spend per visit is a fraction. Even if we took as accurate the TaT figures that tout Chinese as "biggest spenders" if you just scratch the surface we quickly see Europe and Aus are the better source of income per visit

 

2015:

China 7.9m visitors translated into estimated 11349 million USD revenue

Europe: 4.9m visitors translated into 11539 million USD revenue

Aus:  806k visitors translated into 2103 million USD revenue

 

Nearly 2:1 spend difference in favor of the "farang"

 

And remember they looking at spending estimates to calculate that revenue and we know large portion of Chinese spending goes straight back to Chinese companies in China

 

[xylophone]

13 hours ago, Lashay said:

Where are the Ozzies? By all accounts either home or Bali.

 

They were having a boom 5-6 years ago and now the crash has come, so they are either staying closer to home or going places  where the AUD goes further. Little or nothing Thailand can do about that beyond sink the baht.

 

While not denying the scams and prices are a huge problem they are not the biggest problem, as scams and prices were an issue 5-6 years ago and Aussies were here in mass numbers. For most of the source markets that go though a rise and fall other external influences can always be found.

 

As to the Chinese, yep they pay above odds for things, but things like that speedboat. If they follow their normal SOP, as been seen with Hotels, massage and shops the breakdown probably works like this

 

6000 cost to Chinese tourist

1500-2000 to boat operator (force bulk discounts)

4000-4500 back to china

 

And continuing their longer term SOP, once established they will either buy up the thai operator on the cheap or set up their own speedboat company and move all their customers to that, bankrupting the local operator who is now dependent on them. By time they are done only money remaining in Thailand will be salary for staff they cannot replace with Chinese and kickbacks to authorities

 

And as far as overall spend, average Chinese Tourist is in Thailand around 7 days, average time in Phuket 2.4 days. So yeah per day they spend more, but in comparison with average western tourist here 14 days plus their spend per visit is a fraction. Even if we took as accurate the TaT figures that tout Chinese as "biggest spenders" if you just scratch the surface we quickly see Europe and Aus are the better source of income per visit

 

2015:

China 7.9m visitors translated into estimated 11349 million USD revenue

Europe: 4.9m visitors translated into 11539 million USD revenue

Aus:  806k visitors translated into 2103 million USD revenue

 

Nearly 2:1 spend difference in favor of the "farang"

 

And remember they looking at spending estimates to calculate that revenue and we know large portion of Chinese spending goes straight back to Chinese companies in China

 

Nice and well thought out post Lashay and certainly addresses some of the elements I have been including in mine.

 

I say this because in the years I have been staying here I have NEVER seen an individual Chinese person or a group buy anything other than something cheap, however my experience is limited to the likes of Jungceylon, restaurants in general, Big C, Central and one or two other places.

 

And getting onto another point in the discussion with "CantSpell" (and I enjoy his/her posts although I don't believe some of the stats, but then that's life) there was a reason why a lot of the small businesses and yes, dare I say it, the bars didn't change at the start of the GFC, and that was because they didn't really see that coming, nor did any of us, and it had a delayed effect, so there wasn't a sudden drop off, it was delayed for almost a year before it started to hit home, and by that time it was too late.

 

Furthermore nobody and not even the big financial institutions, knew how far the rot had spread with regard to the CDOs so the collapse was more far-reaching and of longer duration than anybody had ever thought, so I think that the bar owners here saw a slight drop off and had no idea of what was to follow, probably thinking that it would be a minor blip and away things would go again – – but it didn't happen like that.

 

I suppose one could argue as to whether the financial situation triggered the change in demographics here or whether the demographics triggered the change in spend, but then that's probably for another day.

 

Jumping around a bit here, but I do know a bit about the Chinese psyche, having had a Chinese girlfriend for 10 years in NZ and I can assure you that the big spending Chinese will not be coming to a place which encourages Chinese 'peasants' to come, and yes many of those I have seen here are of that category or close anyway (not wanting to be personally disparaging you understand).

 

 

 

 

[sekmet]

Nice and well thought out post Lashay and certainly addresses some of the elements I have been including in mine.
 
I say this because in the years I have been staying here I have NEVER seen an individual Chinese person or a group buy anything other than something cheap, however my experience is limited to the likes of Jungceylon, restaurants in general, Big C, Central and one or two other places.
 
And getting onto another point in the discussion with "CantSpell" (and I enjoy his/her posts although I don't believe some of the stats, but then that's life) there was a reason why a lot of the small businesses and yes, dare I say it, the bars didn't change at the start of the GFC, and that was because they didn't really see that coming, nor did any of us, and it had a delayed effect, so there wasn't a sudden drop off, it was delayed for almost a year before it started to hit home, and by that time it was too late.
 
Furthermore nobody and not even the big financial institutions, knew how far the rot had spread with regard to the CDOs so the collapse was more far-reaching and of longer duration than anybody had ever thought, so I think that the bar owners here saw a slight drop off and had no idea of what was to follow, probably thinking that it would be a minor blip and away things would go again – – but it didn't happen like that.
 
I suppose one could argue as to whether the financial situation triggered the change in demographics here or whether the demographics triggered the change in spend, but then that's probably for another day.
 
Jumping around a bit here, but I do know a bit about the Chinese psyche, having had a Chinese girlfriend for 10 years in NZ and I can assure you that the big spending Chinese will not be coming to a place which encourages Chinese 'peasants' to come, and yes many of those I have seen here are of that category or close anyway (not wanting to be personally disparaging you understand).
 
 
 
 

The well heeled Chinese go to EU or USA where they can buy properties outright. HKT is a race to the bottom.


Sent from my SM-T530NU using Tapatalk

[LivinLOS]

1 hour ago, xylophone said:

I say this because in the years I have been staying here I have NEVER seen an individual Chinese person or a group buy anything other than something cheap, however my experience is limited to the likes of Jungceylon, restaurants in general, Big C, Central and one or two other places

 

 

Here in CNX the chinese fall into 2 groups.. The rural China on a tour group, who are brutally rude, noisy, disruptive and cheap.. Then theres the independent travelling 'new' chinese.. Generally younger, usually couples, and they seem very well heeled.. You see them cramming the 4k a night and up rooms, wandering around with 5 plus 1000 usd of camera gear around thier necks, loading up on branded items not copy market tat and my bet is they outspend the average western visitor (in daily) as they tend to cram it all into a few days visit and seem to try to hit many things each day. 

 

I would also guess these quieter asian tourists are much more 'assimilated' to how Thais want thier tourists.. Off the plane, a few days of blasting around ticking stuff of a list, taking selfies and spending.. Then gone again.. Not hanging out in neon bars and if they do P4P they do it like Thais, behind closed doors at karaokes and rub and tugs. Wealthy asian tourists probably suit Thai desires on ways other than just money.

 

I dont doubt they see little appeal in Bangla. 

[LivinLOS]

On 2/5/2017 at 0:29 PM, xylophone said:

five Russian folk (probably in their late 20s/early 30s) tried to get into a really heaving Smiley Bar last night and were refused admittance because they wanted to bring the drinks they already had in their hands into the bar with them, plus the plastic bag full of beers that they had just bought in the 7-Eleven opposite!! And they couldn't understand why they were not allowed to do that........low rent and some!

 

Some of this argument seems to be pulling both ways at once.. Thailand is like xerox putting out low quality product and not caring about customer service.. But then the people coming are too low rent.. Reap what you sow surely ?? 

 

If you look at the prices of drinks, both small beers and lady drinks, in the entertainment complexes of Phuket is it any wonder people try to game the system. Thailand was cheap, superficially or more friendly, and fun.. These days Thailand is very much not cheap, far less friendly even superficially and far more in your face avoricious about taking your money and doing the absolute minimum service, and still kinda fun if you squint a bit and dont know how it was. but as a value proposition a 3 or 4 week holiday around bangla which I was doing 3 or 4 times a year in the late 90s is not an easy sell.  Its down to 1 out of 3 and then are surprised when this hurts repeat trade. 

 

Its not even the bars fault, the crazyness of 3 year lease prices demand these numbers, everyone else is working to pay the entrenched families. Its always been that way but the stakes are so much higher now hence the aggression is higher to keep up with it. 

 

 

[LivinLOS]

8 minutes ago, LivinLOS said:

I would also guess these quieter asian tourists are much more 'assimilated' to how Thais want thier tourists.. Off the plane, a few days of blasting around ticking stuff of a list, taking selfies and spending.. Then gone again.. Not hanging out in neon bars and if they do P4P they do it like Thais, behind closed doors at karaokes and rub and tugs. Wealthy asian tourists probably suit Thai desires on ways other than just money.

 

To quote myself here.. 

 

I have a friend in udon, known her a few years since she was in college and now shes left schooling and out in the real world shes cute enough to be able to be a very casual FL and use the internet, shes always off to samui, phuket, bangkok etc then back home to the baan..Shes comparison shopping for a husband / support system basically. Having known her a long time we are friends and theres little bullshit needed. 

 

Shes husband hunting but made it clear shes not really interested in a westerner.. All through college she was supported and 'in love' with a young japanese doctor.. Shes been to singapore with a guy for a while and broke up.. Shes working on a taiwanese young guy now.. So to her shes really not even into western tourists as a long term prospect. Shes been to language school learning Japanese and Chinese.. That should tell you how the field is changing. 

[xylophone]

13 minutes ago, LivinLOS said:

Some of this argument seems to be pulling both ways at once.. Thailand is like xerox putting out low quality product and not caring about customer service.. But then the people coming are too low rent.. Reap what you sow surely ??

Yes you could say that although I don't believe Bangla has changed much (in what it offers) in the 10 years I've been living here, so the product is still the same, but the TAT and the push for numbers will go after anyone who will put their bum on a cheap airline seat, so you start to get a downward spiral and then there's no end to it.

 

I will put a proviso on that previous paragraph in as much as although there have been parts of Bangla which have been tidied up (Soi Sea Dragon; new discos and nightclubs etc) and seem to look okay at night, during the daytime the place looks like an absolute dump with holes in the road, broken paving stones, rubbish everywhere, pools of fetid water and the occasional pile of sick.

 

The place is low rent as is much of Patong these days and despite what others may say, many of the visitors are the same.

[CantSpell]

1 hour ago, LivinLOS said:

 

Here in CNX the chinese fall into 2 groups.. The rural China on a tour group, who are brutally rude, noisy, disruptive and cheap.. Then theres the independent travelling 'new' chinese.. Generally younger, usually couples, and they seem very well heeled.. You see them cramming the 4k a night and up rooms, wandering around with 5 plus 1000 usd of camera gear around thier necks, loading up on branded items not copy market tat and my bet is they outspend the average western visitor (in daily) as they tend to cram it all into a few days visit and seem to try to hit many things each day. 

 

I would also guess these quieter asian tourists are much more 'assimilated' to how Thais want thier tourists.. Off the plane, a few days of blasting around ticking stuff of a list, taking selfies and spending.. Then gone again.. Not hanging out in neon bars and if they do P4P they do it like Thais, behind closed doors at karaokes and rub and tugs. Wealthy asian tourists probably suit Thai desires on ways other than just money.

 

I dont doubt they see little appeal in Bangla. 

There there, thank you for that!!  

And this is not particularly Patong, this is all over Thailand

 

Apart from that, not saying it is a result or a consequence of the drop in business but i feel a shift in behavior of BG in some towns....

 

Conversation starter used to be: "Hello, how are you, what is ya name, where are ya from.." At least giving you a chance to see who was talking to you...

Those days, seems to be much shorter: "Hello, you buy me drink?"... 

 

[GeorgeCross]

4 hours ago, LivinLOS said:

 

To quote myself here.. 

 

I have a friend in udon, known her a few years since she was in college and now shes left schooling and out in the real world shes cute enough to be able to be a very casual FL and use the internet, shes always off to samui, phuket, bangkok etc then back home to the baan..Shes comparison shopping for a husband / support system basically. Having known her a long time we are friends and theres little bullshit needed. 

 

Shes husband hunting but made it clear shes not really interested in a westerner.. All through college she was supported and 'in love' with a young japanese doctor.. Shes been to singapore with a guy for a while and broke up.. Shes working on a taiwanese young guy now.. So to her shes really not even into western tourists as a long term prospect. Shes been to language school learning Japanese and Chinese.. That should tell you how the field is changing. 

 

lol, lots of thai girls would like a japanese/korean/rich asian husband. its not a new phenomenon

 

Edited February 8, 2017 by GeorgeCross

[LivinLOS]

2 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

lol, lots of thai girls would like a japanese/korean/rich asian husband. its not a new phenomenon

 

 

Yeah your right.. Theres always been a crowd that worked the asian market I suppose. 

 

It just was kind of very obvious to me, that westerners were not even on her list of targets as far as long term boyfriend material went.  We were joking about and she was telling me of an invite to London, and was not that keen.. Her Japanese doctor however had her melting. Fair play to him tho, even when he broke up with her, he still paid to support her the rest of the way to finish college. At least she didnt have to ask me

[SooKee]

19 hours ago, LivinLOS said:

 

Here in CNX the chinese fall into 2 groups.. The rural China on a tour group, who are brutally rude, noisy, disruptive and cheap.. Then theres the independent travelling 'new' chinese.. Generally younger, usually couples, and they seem very well heeled.. You see them cramming the 4k a night and up rooms, wandering around with 5 plus 1000 usd of camera gear around thier necks, loading up on branded items not copy market tat and my bet is they outspend the average western visitor (in daily) as they tend to cram it all into a few days visit and seem to try to hit many things each day. 

 

I would also guess these quieter asian tourists are much more 'assimilated' to how Thais want thier tourists.. Off the plane, a few days of blasting around ticking stuff of a list, taking selfies and spending.. Then gone again.. Not hanging out in neon bars and if they do P4P they do it like Thais, behind closed doors at karaokes and rub and tugs. Wealthy asian tourists probably suit Thai desires on ways other than just money.

 

I dont doubt they see little appeal in Bangla. 

Pretty much how I see it.  Trouble is in Phuket, and certainly round Patong, the well-heeled indies were always way, WAY, outnumbered by their zero-rent (not even low-rent), low-so 'peasants.are.us' cousins.  The latter fitting the bill for TAT in terms of numbers for bods 'in country' but more of a hurdle to TAT encouraging other tourists than anything that's seen as profitable, or even desirable.  These low-so types are annoying, even obnoxious, on so many levels it's unreal, they seem to lack ANY kind of self-awarness at all.  And as for manners and ANY respect for others, well, forget that.

 

When I moved to Chiang Mai the ratio of the low-so Chinese to the indie well-healed types (thankfully!!) dropped dramatically, possibly due to the area and the bite of the 'zero baht tourist' crackdown (though they all seem to be able to do DAS - 'Dumb as 5hit' when riding bikes, or even crossing the bleedin' road).  Now, here in BKK, I'm sure theyr'e around but the low-so types have been so unnoticeable they don't feature on the radar.  The indie females though, of which there seems to be a far higher proportion travelling with all-female groups of chums here,  are certainly some lookers!! Much more polite, open to engaging with others, much more self-aware and at times very, very friendly.

Edited February 9, 2017 by SooKee

[Bulldozer Dawn]

17 hours ago, SooKee said:

Pretty much how I see it.  Trouble is in Phuket, and certainly round Patong, the well-heeled indies were always way, WAY, outnumbered by their zero-rent (not even low-rent), low-so 'peasants.are.us' cousins.  The latter fitting the bill for TAT in terms of numbers for bods 'in country' but more of a hurdle to TAT encouraging other tourists than anything that's seen as profitable, or even desirable.  These low-so types are annoying, even obnoxious, on so many levels it's unreal, they seem to lack ANY kind of self-awarness at all.  And as for manners and ANY respect for others, well, forget that.

 

When I moved to Chiang Mai the ratio of the low-so Chinese to the indie well-healed types (thankfully!!) dropped dramatically, possibly due to the area and the bite of the 'zero baht tourist' crackdown (though they all seem to be able to do DAS - 'Dumb as 5hit' when riding bikes, or even crossing the bleedin' road).  Now, here in BKK, I'm sure theyr'e around but the low-so types have been so unnoticeable they don't feature on the radar.  The indie females though, of which there seems to be a far higher proportion travelling with all-female groups of chums here,  are certainly some lookers!! Much more polite, open to engaging with others, much more self-aware and at times very, very friendly.

The indie Chinese females are even more narcissistic then Thai girls.  They come from a nation where there is a critical under supply of nubile women.  In my careful observations I have not seen any evidence of such girls reaching out to interact with farangs here in Thailand.  Maybee SooKee has heard that he is a handsum man so often he has started to believe it is true. 

[Bulldozer Dawn]

On 2/8/2017 at 0:59 PM, LivinLOS said:

 

To quote myself here.. 

 

I have a friend in udon, known her a few years since she was in college and now shes left schooling and out in the real world shes cute enough to be able to be a very casual FL and use the internet, shes always off to samui, phuket, bangkok etc then back home to the baan..Shes comparison shopping for a husband / support system basically. Having known her a long time we are friends and theres little bullshit needed. 

 

Shes husband hunting but made it clear shes not really interested in a westerner.. All through college she was supported and 'in love' with a young japanese doctor.. Shes been to singapore with a guy for a while and broke up.. Shes working on a taiwanese young guy now.. So to her shes really not even into western tourists as a long term prospect. Shes been to language school learning Japanese and Chinese.. That should tell you how the field is changing. 

What could a Japanese doctor offer her that Somchai from Non Saat, with his pimped out Scoopy, could not?

 

At some point in the near future something has to give in the social order here.

 

I am good friends with three young Thai lads.  Two of them are already married, one with 2 kids already.  All three of them have taken on 5 year contracts working abroad.  One in Israel (tomato farm), one in Korea (factory), and one in Taiwan (construction).  The only chance that they have to get enough money to build a house and have a remote chance of raising a family is to leave their wives for 5 years.  We all know what happens during that absence....

 

On the other side of the coin you have the Thai girls who will do anything not to have to marry a somchai.

 

If there is zero opportunity for responsible hardworking your Thai men and women to have a functioning family then this place is done for.

 

 

[LivinLOS]

4 hours ago, Bulldozer Dawn said:

The only chance that they have to get enough money to build a house and have a remote chance of raising a family is to leave their wives for 5 years.

 

If there is zero opportunity for responsible hardworking your Thai men and women to have a functioning family then this place is done for.

 

Dont agree with that at all.. Theres LOADs of opportunity in Thailand, its not like Cambo or Laos at all.. 

 

Friend of the wifes, single, works 5 days a week in a retail store.. 35k a month salary

Other friends, opened a restaurant in a good location, pulling in 10s of 1000s a month profit after only a couple of months. 

 

I agree theres limited 'good jobs' even if the first example is precisely that.. But the demand for quality services is huge. The issue is finding people who are professional, punctual, detail oriented, problem solving, etc. 

[simon43]

.. but what is kind of surprising me is that is took those people you mention as struggling over 7-8 years to see what was right in fron of their eyes????

 

Commenting on this (but from my Greater Phuket viewpoint), many of us could see this demographic change happening, but there was little that we could do about it.  

 

Sure, we could print menus and information in Chinese for the new influx of tourists, but as others have said, Phuket is on a race to the bottom, and targeting the Chinese tourists who had money was only a short-term stopgap.  

 

The best solution for the business was to sell up, but who would want to buy a business in Phuket? :)

 

I'm out of that problem now, but both of my ex's would love to sell up and get out of Phuket, but there are no buyers, (even when the business is still making a healthy profit - it is the long-term scenario that is putting buyers off IMHO).

 

My sensible ex wants to set up a new guesthouse/hotel business 'somewhere else' in Thailand, where it is not such a 'roller-coaster' ride of foreign tourist ups and downs and demographic changes.  I've suggested that she base her long-term business calculations and revenue estimates purely from Thai tourists, and to consider any foreign tourists as icing on the cake, (so maybe a guesthouse near Khao Yao or similar).

 

 

[SooKee]

7 hours ago, Bulldozer Dawn said:

The indie Chinese females are even more narcissistic then Thai girls.  They come from a nation where there is a critical under supply of nubile women.  In my careful observations I have not seen any evidence of such girls reaching out to interact with farangs here in Thailand.  Maybee SooKee has heard that he is a handsum man so often he has started to believe it is true. 

 

Jeez. Fairly typical of some of the total and utter clap trap 'bar stool' theories that gets posted on Thai Visa. Maybe you spend too much time worrying about what other people are doing and posting your BS theories. I lived (and still retain a place) in Penang for 4-5 years before spending more time in Thailand and find interacting with the Chinese no problem, speaking some Chinese helps I guess, Hokien and Mandarin.  As for the 'handsum man' crap, never heard it in years TBH (and the comment itself speaks volumes), but maybe I spend less time socialising with hookers and bar girls than you, which of course would also limit you to only being able to comment from the viewpoint of 'careful observation' rather than from the basis of any experience whatsoever.

 

Instead of carefully observing, get off yer ass (and the internet) and go try interacting with people. You might be surprised. But hey, like I give a 5hit what you do. Ignore list.


Sent using Tapatalk

 

Edited February 10, 2017 by SooKee

[xylophone]

I must have missed something in one of these posts, because I see a reference to "indie Chinese girls" and I have no idea what they are – – please enlighten me so that I can follow the posts a little more closely.

 

Cheers.

[NamKangMan]

12 hours ago, LivinLOS said:

 

Dont agree with that at all.. Theres LOADs of opportunity in Thailand, its not like Cambo or Laos at all.. 

 

Friend of the wifes, single, works 5 days a week in a retail store.. 35k a month salary

Other friends, opened a restaurant in a good location, pulling in 10s of 1000s a month profit after only a couple of months. 

 

I agree theres limited 'good jobs' even if the first example is precisely that.. But the demand for quality services is huge. The issue is finding people who are professional, punctual, detail oriented, problem solving, etc. 

 

 

"Friend of the wifes, single, works 5 days a week in a retail store.. 35k a month salary" - that would be in management, wouldn't it?  If so, I'm guessing she would have a tertiary education, something the majority of Thai's do not possess.

 

 "Other friends, opened a restaurant in a good location, pulling in 10s of 1000s a month profit after only a couple of months." - ok, possible, but where did the "start-up" money come from????

 

I believe BD was taking about your average hardworking Thai men and women, not those from a wealthy family who can afford university for their kids, and probably buy them a good job, or to hand over money to family members to start a business. 

 

Another thing to remember is that the lower educated Thai's are being undercut by the Burmese, Khmer's, and Laotian's, for even the lower paid jobs.

 

 

[NamKangMan]

9 hours ago, simon43 said:

 

 

 

Commenting on this (but from my Greater Phuket viewpoint), many of us could see this demographic change happening, but there was little that we could do about it.  

 

Sure, we could print menus and information in Chinese for the new influx of tourists, but as others have said, Phuket is on a race to the bottom, and targeting the Chinese tourists who had money was only a short-term stopgap.  

 

The best solution for the business was to sell up, but who would want to buy a business in Phuket? :)

 

I'm out of that problem now, but both of my ex's would love to sell up and get out of Phuket, but there are no buyers, (even when the business is still making a healthy profit - it is the long-term scenario that is putting buyers off IMHO).

 

My sensible ex wants to set up a new guesthouse/hotel business 'somewhere else' in Thailand, where it is not such a 'roller-coaster' ride of foreign tourist ups and downs and demographic changes.  I've suggested that she base her long-term business calculations and revenue estimates purely from Thai tourists, and to consider any foreign tourists as icing on the cake, (so maybe a guesthouse near Khao Yao or similar).

 

 

 

"so maybe a guesthouse near Khao Yao or similar" - I would suggest a guesthouse in a neighboring country, using her knowledge gained from here.

 

Thailand continues to head downwards, while neighboring countries are on the rise. 

[phuketlive]

Recently some places brought back chicha smoking, I guess to please the numerous french arab tourists here...

 

A place near prachanukro reopened, black windows, you cannot see inside, chicha on every table...

 

Same on bangla, some places have chicha again.

 

More businesses for french arabs opened on nanai 8 or near malin market, plus a big one opening soon on soi tan, gotha...

 

Now it's mostly french arabs, cheap chinese and cheap russians who cannot go to turkey because of the problems there so they came back here.

[NamKangMan]

6 minutes ago, phuketlive said:

Recently some places brought back chicha smoking, I guess to please the numerous french arab tourists here...

 

A place near prachanukro reopened, black windows, you cannot see inside, chicha on every table...

 

Same on bangla, some places have chicha again.

 

More businesses for french arabs opened on nanai 8 or near malin market, plus a big one opening soon on soi tan, gotha...

 

Now it's mostly french arabs, cheap chinese and cheap russians who cannot go to turkey because of the problems there so they came back here.

 

The shisha "fruit" is mostly bought in by friends of the owners, or the customers themselves, so no tax  and minimal sales money there.  The Muslims don't drink, and if they do, it's moderately, so no tax money / business profits there. 

 

They do contribute to the sex trade economy, but get the rock bottom price off desperate freelancers, mainly from nightclubs. 

 

The Chinese are on their package holidays, bought and paid for in China, so profits remaining in China.  They are lead by the nose around selected establishments who have been beaten down to rock bottom price, or pay the highest commissions, so, not much profits from them.

 

The Russians travel with their partners, and buy their bottle of vodka and drink it on their balcony, or in cheap restaurant.  

 

Hence, no real money flowing into the local F&B tourism industry economy from these demographics. 

[LivinLOS]

12 hours ago, NamKangMan said:

 

 

"Friend of the wifes, single, works 5 days a week in a retail store.. 35k a month salary" - that would be in management, wouldn't it?  If so, I'm guessing she would have a tertiary education, something the majority of Thai's do not possess.

 

 "Other friends, opened a restaurant in a good location, pulling in 10s of 1000s a month profit after only a couple of months." - ok, possible, but where did the "start-up" money come from????

 

 

1) no shes selling earings to tourists !! Shes self taught decent english and I am told workable (for prices etc) chinese... Taught from books no school.. Fact is the shop owner was relieved to finally find someone professional, reliable, punctual, and trustable. Now she needs one staff instead of 4 !! Theres not a shortage of opportunities, theres a shortage of people you can actually trust to get on with a job 100% and self manage. 

 

2) the restaurant actually was a really cheap takeover.. Probably 60 - 100k in.. Its in a superb spot and seems to be going gangbusters a bit more than 3 months in.. Not tourist at all (its a moobaans pool and restaurant which was badly / never managed by the moobaan). Again something done badly under hopeless management was seen, taken on by someone competent, and apparently making a superb go of it.