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Long-range forecast accuracy?


kkuls

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Just curious how accurate the long-range forecasts TYPICALLY are here during the dry season. At home (mountainous region) we generally disregard anything beyond a day or two in advance, as weather patterns in the mountains are unpredictable (at best).

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Next week: hot + smoggy.

Every day until around Songkran: hot and smoggy.

Eventually a bit of rain, then by June/ July, 1 to 2 daily downpours.

Don't need a long term forecast in Chiang Mai, the weather rarely if ever changes from year to year.

I thought it was late July if at all in July some times it is. Then August when it gets serious about the rain.

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Accuracy of long range forcasting? they have difficulty in getting the next 24 hours when the wet and cool seasons arrives.

A typical forecast is "sunny with a chance of rain" which covers all possibilities. I use Accuweather, its an oxy moron, over time they probably av about 50% correct forecasting.

Watch out for ants and frogs they have it nailed.

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