Thai stocks: JAS/JASIF

[MacWalen]

JAS is moving up. Looks promising.

[MacWalen]

the 'guru's' complete misreading is hardly surprising but offers a further warning siren to all but the stone deaf

I am not a guru but I'm pretty good when it comes to investing. Money talks bullsh..t walks.

[likewise]

I added JAS to my portfolio, average price of 5.55 baht, not a bad stock to have. Should see some volatility with the 4G bidding coming up + their financial numbers our far from weak.

[Maestro]

Removed a troll post.

[PCA]

I added JAS to my portfolio, average price of 5.55 baht, not a bad stock to have. Should see some volatility with the 4G bidding coming up + their financial numbers our far from weak.

good choice, if we see it above 6 again within the next few days then there's 7+ not out of reach in the near term.

[wordchild]

any thoughts on this one , noticed it closed down 14 pips at 4.52 in todays trade? down 20% since the start of November.

I presume its depressed with all the other mobile (or wannabe mobile) stocks ahead of the next round of 4g bidding, later this month. I have been keeping a watch on INTUCH (shareholder in AIS), which has also been pretty weak, but not pressed the button yet.

Maybe I am missing something,but JAS seem to have really got themselves into a bit of a corner here. Anyone got any thoughts as to what would be worse for the stock, either they don't get one of the two remaining licences or the end up paying a huge price for one?

Edited December 1, 2015 by wordchild

[fletchsmile]

I don't follow this particular stock, although I've followed this thread a bit.

It is down over 20% in a month. It gets worse though - and is down over 50% since a certain poster has been using their trading instincts, and telling people for 8 months or so it's in an up-trend, looking good, misreading charts etc. Also a good reminder to take with a pinch of salt specific stock recommendations on a website from people you don't know and haven't seen any sort of decent history or experience from them to trust

There's a saying that "picking bottoms is for monkeys".

At this stage that's essentially what someone would be looking at. Is it good value and close to a bottom given the terrible year it has had? Just because a stock has halved in price and may look cheap doesn't by any means make it a bargain.

I'd also be worried about the licensing issue, exactly as described. That's a big risk, and needs to be weighed very heavily vs any perceived undervaluation.

I'd classify it as speculative. There could well be some good upside at these levels. Anyone entering needs to be very disciplined on this, and have some sort of risk management around it. In particular if it falls further what price would they exit? and do they trust themselves to be emotionally detached enough to do so? Stay away also from averaging down.

They'd also need to be able to park their ego, and accept that sometimes they're on the wrong side of the market.

Oh and watch out for monkeys

Edited December 2, 2015 by fletchsmile

[wordchild]

They are having a bit of a bounce this morning, back to 4.62.

The next round of licence auctions will be interesting. There are 2 licences up for grabs to the highest bidders. AIS has made it pretty clear that it wants to get another one after paying c40 billion bt for one of the 2 auctioned in November (True got the other for a similar price). AIS is spectrum hungry and has the muscle (financial and market position) to get what it wants, so, in effect, there will be a scrap between True, DTAC and JAS for the other one. True is probably the least in need of extra spectrum but ,having missed out in November, DTAC is likely to be pretty desperate (their existing concession runs out in 2025). JAS also seems to be pretty determined (they were only just outbid in the November auction) and have hinted at bringing in an overseas backer (Softbank has been rumoured). There is also the angle that the three existing players are likely to want to keep JAS out, as , if they win a licence, they may trigger a price war as they try to grow their market share quickly.

The spectrum that is available, in this round, is arguably less attractive (than the first round) for a start up like JAS (but useful to say AIS for its upcountry network). Nevertheless most commentators seem to think the next round licences should achieve similar prices to the November round, so each of the winners would have to pay another 40 bil bt or so. Even though JAS have hinted at bringing in a partner, its their name that is on the ticket and they will have to stump up in the first instance. They have a strong balance sheet (around 10 bill net cash I believe) even so this will be a stretch just to get a licence and then they need to get themselves a network and some customers. Their current market value is c 32 billion ie less than the likely licence cost. FWIW my guess is that JAS are bluffing and they will miss out this time as well , and the shares should bounce but, who knows? should be fun!

Edited December 2, 2015 by wordchild

[likewise]

Don't know about Mc Walen but I'm still holding mine, got in pretty cheap at around 5.55 baht, holding them in portfolio for now. As you have noticed the whole SET took a hit and all mobile providers went down, not to mention the energy sector . See what happens with the next bidding.

[wordchild]

The November licence bids rather stunned the market because of the high prices and because JAS seemed so determined and stayed in the bidding way beyond where people had expected. I sort of feel that this time the final prices may not be so high because;

1)True has got the spectrum it wanted and will probably just stay in the bidding just in case they can pick up some cheap spectrum and also they will not want JAS to end up a winner. As long as DTAC is still in the running I would guess they will pull once prices get too high from their perspective.

2)I have the impression that JAS really wanted the 1800 spectrum (November auction) and from their perspective just ending up with the 900 licence may not be ideal. Also the terrible share price reaction post the November auction must give mgmt some concerns. They could reconfigure their strategy and find ways to get involved without owning a licence. I don't think they will push it as far this time. also they must realize its going to be really tough to beat DTAC or AIS.

3)DTAC really needs to get something out of this, otherwise there is likely to be a serious loss of value for local shareholders and Telenor as the time to the end of their current concession runs down. There is also the view that 900 was the spectrum they really wanted which was why they pulled early from the November auction. They will be in this one till the end in my view.

4)AIS also needs this spectrum (esp for its upcountry service), but also to ensure that it remains the dominant player in Thai mobile. They will also be determined to keep JAS out.

So DTAC and AIS to come out ahead and at somewhat lower prices than the last round, but that is just complete speculation on my part and the outcome could be very different. One thing for sure is that there will be plenty of shareprice volatility.

[fletchsmile]

JAS down significantly again today = down around 12% at 4.20

Seems like they got the worst possible outcome they could have expected on the auctions. Nothing on the first auction. Then they "won" the second auction which had even higher prices than the first, setting a world record for payment - ouch!

[Orac]

Apparently they are planning an IPO for JAS Mobile

[wordchild]

I saw the report of an interview with the CE, profitable by the third year is his forecast; and talking about a float for the mobile business which currently has no assets, no customers and a huge liability; dream on! This is CTH/Premier League all over again, it could even turn out worse. I see Thanachart have put out a sell note on JAS with a target of 3.80, frankly, I don't see any good reason why it shouldn't go a great deal lower.

Edited December 21, 2015 by wordchild

[fletchsmile]

Looks like Tanachart's target price isn't far off:

3.96 now, down 17% on the day - ouch!

[Orac]

Looks like Tanachart's target price isn't far off:

3.96 now, down 17% on the day - ouch!

AIS down about the same and intuch even more which is a surprise.

[wordchild]

The worry for AIS and the others is what kind of disruption JAS causes in the market as it tries to build some kind of customer base. Whether the competitor shares remain under pressure to a large extent , in my opinion, depends on how credible JAS appears to be over the coming weeks and months; if they unveil a serious partner like say a Softbank, who take a meaningful equity stake in the venture then I think AIS et al will remain under pressure. But if it becomes clear that it is just JAS (and maybe its infrastructure fund) that will be bearing most of the cost going forward and JAS has been bluffing about the potential backers , then you could get a bit of a relief rally in AIS.

INTUCH had held up a bit too well recently (relative to the value of its AIS stake) so I think this fall has brought it back closer to the kind of discount it was at before.

Edited December 21, 2015 by wordchild

[Orac]

Down another 16% today to 3.1 - must be starting to look attractive to a bid soon.

[dinga]

Where's Wally Walen? Is he doubling/tripling down?

[WorkingTourist]

Down another 16% today to 3.1 - must be starting to look attractive to a bid soon.

They’ll be spending almost ฿100bn on the license and building out infrastructure.

This is money they do not have. So at what price will JAS be attractive, given that you’ll be buying a lot of debt?

[Orac]

Down another 16% today to 3.1 - must be starting to look attractive to a bid soon.

They’ll be spending almost ฿100bn on the license and building out infrastructure.

This is money they do not have. So at what price will JAS be attractive, given that you’ll be buying a lot of debt?

Would surely be a tempting target for ADVANC. We already know how much the licence is worth to them as they bid up to 70bn so not that much less than was actually paid. They already have an infrastructure plan where there would be savings and removes the problem of migrating customers from 900 band plus they would get all the 3bb broadband network.

[wordchild]

I think it is impossible to value JAS until one knows the strategy for the build out; they badly need a partner who will take a financial stake in the venture. At this stage, it doesnt look like they had a firm commitment from anyone prior to bidding and, if thats the case, that may have been a costly mistake. Everyone can now see they are in a difficult situation and that will impact the terms of any deal they can do. I know, at least one analyst who thinks that JAS were bluffing all along and they never had any serious talks with anyone .

I have been wondering myself if there anyway for AIS to get involved; I think partnering JAS would be pretty much impossible for a number of reasons but they would certaily be interested (as would DTAC) if JAS became a forced seller (or even had to hand the thing back). However both AIS and DTAC have made it clear that they exited the bidding at what they saw as the limit of a positive shareholder value so hard to see how either could pay any kind of premium to JAS.

Edited December 23, 2015 by wordchild

[fletchsmile]

I believe JAS will go up.

.... Investor's intuition. Takes training to develop it. Following fundamentals. Buying at the right time etc.

Today I have increased my position with JAS to 1,481,600 shares. Good time to buy. Should be easy 10-15% profit or even more.

Investors are not selling. Just trader boys do. All the way to financial death as is usually the case with most trader boys.

The upward trend for JAS continues. Looks very promising.

As we're reaching year end, and looking back thru this thread, I think there are some very good learning points for new investors, which would include:

- Be very wary of internet tips on individual stocks, particularly without knowing the track record and credentials of people giving them

- If you're going to read such tips, look for substance, and reasoned supporting analysis that you can help use as a basis for your own research, and verify. Not just opinions, but facts and analysis.

- Understand what you're investing in. Thorough fundamental analysis would highlight the 2015 licence auctions as a major risk. If you didn't pick this up in your own research, brokers and analysts highlighted it and covered it.

- If you're going to read charts and use that as a basis for analysis make sure you fully understand how to do so.

- Be careful of becoming overconfident in markets. Most people would have made money in years 2009,10,11,12,13,14 (with dividends included in these years). These were part of a long bull run. The real tests come in down years. 2015 was a relatively mild one but hopefully a wake up call, that the last 5 years won't just continue nicely going up like they've done in recent years. 2007/8 and 1997, 1987 are ones to think about if you weren't around.

- Understand total returns, and how dividends, capital gains and tax affect them. Make sure you are monitoring profits and losses in their entirety. Not just, I received xyz dividend.

- Averaging down and adding to losing positions often turns out badly, and for new investors in particular best avoided

- Think about risk management. What price will you exit if the market goes against you. No-one gets it right all the time, despite their claims, and be careful especially of those who claim to do so. Don't be afraid to admit you were wrong and exit to cut your losses.

We've watched this stock lose 2/3 s of its capital value from over 9 baht a share 10 months back to just over 3 now.

Hopefully no-one followed such advice, but if so I hope they learned from it

Cheers and best wishes for 2016

Fletch

Edited December 23, 2015 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

I think it is impossible to value JAS until one knows the strategy for the build out; they badly need a partner who will take a financial stake in the venture. At this stage, it doesnt look like they had a firm commitment from anyone prior to bidding and, if thats the case, that may have been a costly mistake. Everyone can now see they are in a difficult situation and that will impact the terms of any deal they can do. I know, at least one analyst who thinks that JAS were bluffing all along and they never had any serious talks with anyone .

I have been wondering myself if there anyway for AIS to get involved; I think partnering JAS would be pretty much impossible for a number of reasons but they would certaily be interested (as would DTAC) if JAS became a forced seller (or even had to hand the thing back). However both AIS and DTAC have made it clear that they exited the bidding at what they saw as the limit of a positive shareholder value so hard to see how either could pay any kind of premium to JAS.

There's just too many uncertainties within these stocks for me. There could be some high returns from these low values, but there are some very big risks out there for JAS and DTAC in particular also. AIS and True look better placed for the future.

To invest from here is looking at recovery plays and future growth with a speculative point of view. As this year has shown it can be a more complex industry than first thought. I also wonder about all the politics behind the scene.

There'll also be more band with auctions on 700 Mhz and 2600 Mhz to come in the next 3 years. Not quite sure how you factor those in if you're a long term investor, given the unpredictable nature of the recent ones...

[smokie36]

I believe JAS will go up.

.... Investor's intuition. Takes training to develop it. Following fundamentals. Buying at the right time etc.

Today I have increased my position with JAS to 1,481,600 shares. Good time to buy. Should be easy 10-15% profit or even more.

Investors are not selling. Just trader boys do. All the way to financial death as is usually the case with most trader boys.

The upward trend for JAS continues. Looks very promising.

As we're reaching year end, and looking back thru this thread, I think there are some very good learning points for new investors, which would include:

- Be very wary of internet tips on individual stocks, particularly without knowing the track record and credentials of people giving them

- If you're going to read such tips, look for substance, and reasoned supporting analysis that you can help use as a basis for your own research, and verify. Not just opinions, but facts and analysis.

- Understand what you're investing in. Thorough fundamental analysis would highlight the 2015 licence auctions as a major risk. If you didn't pick this up in your own research, brokers and analysts highlighted it and covered it.

- If you're going to read charts and use that as a basis for analysis make sure you fully understand how to do so.

- Be careful of becoming overconfident in markets. Most people would have made money in years 2009,10,11,12,13,14 (with dividends included in these years). These were part of a long bull run. The real tests come in down years. 2015 was a relatively mild one but hopefully a wake up call, that the last 5 years won't just continue nicely going up like they've done in recent years. 2007/8 and 1997, 1987 are ones to think about if you weren't around.

- Understand total returns, and how dividends, capital gains and tax affect them. Make sure you are monitoring profits and losses in their entirety. Not just, I received xyz dividend.

- Averaging down and adding to losing positions often turns out badly, and for new investors in particular best avoided

- Think about risk management. What price will you exit if the market goes against you. No-one gets it right all the time, despite their claims, and be careful especially of those who claim to do so. Don't be afraid to admit you were wrong and exit to cut your losses.

We've watched this stock lose 2/3 s of its capital value from over 9 baht a share 10 months back to just over 3 now.

Hopefully no-one followed such advice, but if so I hope they learned from it

Cheers and best wishes for 2016

Fletch

It would appear those of us who disagreed with Mr Walen...and those no longer with us who disagreed more vehemently....were proved to be correct.

Funny old world isn't it ThaiVisa?

[wordchild]

A mad thought maybe; is it possible that JAS could just walk and forfeit their right to the concession? obviously huge loss of face plus the loss of the bidding deposit of c700 mil bt, but the share price fall has resulted in a 20 billion plus loss of market value for the shareholders, the loss of the deposit is tiny by comparison. The excuse would be their backers let them down. The company would hang on to (most of) its strong balance sheet as opposed to running the risk, as it currently is, of going bust, and shareholders would likely see a big recovery in the share price as the core business is arguably very undervalued at this price. as I said, a mad thought but you never know, this is Thailand after all.

Edited December 23, 2015 by wordchild

[likewise]

I bought some more at 3.12.

[wordchild]

I bought some more at 3.12.

ballsy move sir! call Pete up and tell him to walk away from the licence and you could be in for a nice quick profit!

Edited December 23, 2015 by wordchild

[likewise]

I'll tell him during our Xmas Dinner

[AyG]

I believe JAS will go up.

That was on March 30th. JAS closing price 5.8.

Fast forward to today, JAS is currently 3.1 - a loss of more than 50%.

Investor's intuition. Takes training to develop it. Following fundamentals. Buying at the right time etc.

Pleased to see your investor intuition is so acute.

How did the investment course go, by the way? Have you refunded the money they paid you yet?

[MacWalen]

Investment course is doing well. Thanks for asking. Numbers are growing.