GBP/THB!

[chiang mai]

It's been a while so I thought it useful to revisit the subject, which is, GBP/THB:

I wonder, does anyone have any thoughts on this, it seems the average bank exchange rate today is, what, 47.44, I'm shocked.

Discuss, and there's a door prize for the first person to make mention of you know what.

[MaeJoMTB]

Shocked it hasn't fallen to 35 yet?

(google is my friend)

Edited March 31, 2015 by MaeJoMTB

[chiang mai]

[Brit_Doggie]

Few months back was hitting 53 i believe but not sure as i'm not capable enough to carry my own atm card,but 47 is average overall since moving here so no biggie.

[MaeJoMTB]

You really need to discuss the bht/gbp/euro, cos they are all swinging wildly against each other.

The exchange rates just dictate where I spend more time.

1. GBP over 45bht, in Thailand

2. GBP over 1.3E in Spain

3. None of those, then in the UK

At the moment i'm in Thailand, thinking of moving to Spain (maybe next year).

I always keep a years local currency in my bank so never a rush to switch countries.

We Brits have many choices of countries to live with our families.

Edited March 31, 2015 by MaeJoMTB

[KittenKong]

The USD is currently high against the GBP and the EUR.

The THB largely follows the USD, so it too is up against the EUR and the GBP.

That's about it.

[chiang mai]

Don't try and tell Alfiecon that, regardless, I agree.

One point worth considering in this argument is that, GBP is considered to be very strong currently whilst THB ... (?)

So what is the likely outcome should GBP weaken, is 35 THB a serious possibility?

Edited March 31, 2015 by chiang mai

[Robert24]

I'd be long the pound in this currency pair. Simply because the BoT is under a lot pressure to weaken/soften the THB and I think they certainly have more room on the interest rate side.

[MJP]

Threat of a Labour/SNP coalition in five weeks time is probably going to send GBP right down the pan.

It's a genuine concern.

[meatboy]

ITS THE LIBOR TEAM AT WORK.

[i claudius]

Threat of a Labour/SNP coalition in five weeks time is probably going to send GBP right down the pan.

It's a genuine concern.

If this happens God help the UK and as for the pound ,

[MaeJoMTB]

My last vote in the UK was for Arthur Scargill's Socialist Labour Party.

[narkeddiver]

It's been interesting watching some of the indicators recently (to my very untrained eye!)

Thai interest rate lowered - Baht strengthens

Thai GDP forecast lowered - Baht strengthens

UK GDP forecast raised - Baht strengthens

Martial law replaced with Section 44 - Baht strengthens

[chiang mai]

Pensioners on fixed income will suffer, those older folks relying on a paltry 3% per annum return on bank savings have/will also be badly hurt, perhaps we'll see an outflux of UK oldies? Sad if that becomes true.

But the upside perhaps is that those (oldies) who had the wherewithal some years ago to invest sensibly in Thailand, can now realize a profit. Just a thought.

[Jip99]

Don't try and tell Alfiecon that, regardless, I agree.

One point worth considering in this argument is that, GBP is considered to be very strong currently whilst THB ... (?)

So what is the likely outcome should GBP weaken, is 35 THB a serious possibility?

No

Please see previous thread

[chiang mai]

Perhaps a brief summary in this thread, of whatever you want to say, might be more helpful!

[Jip99]

Perhaps a brief summary in this thread, of whatever you want to say, might be more helpful!

The answer to your very specific question remains "No".

The reasons are exactly the ones that someone would use in trying to justify 35 GBP/THB.

For what it is worth I think the rate will continue to trade between 45 and 55 for the foreseeable.

Do I think the Baht is over-valued ? Yes, I do - but all this is not about 'real' values

[Sandman77]

Wait uk leave euro zone at end of 2016 then pound shakes hand with the euro!

[MaeJoMTB]

Perhaps a brief summary in this thread, of whatever you want to say, might be more helpful!

The answer to your very specific question remains "No".

The reasons are exactly the ones that someone would use in trying to justify 35 GBP/THB.

For what it is worth I think the rate will continue to trade between 45 and 55 for the foreseeable.

Do I think the Baht is over-valued ? Yes, I do - but all this is not about 'real' values

I agree.

[MJP]

Threat of a Labour/SNP coalition in five weeks time is probably going to send GBP right down the pan.

It's a genuine concern.

If this happens God help the UK and as for the pound ,

Ed Balls as Chancellor and it's all over for the UK.

[SheungWan]

Threat of a Labour/SNP coalition in five weeks time is probably going to send GBP right down the pan.

It's a genuine concern.

If this happens God help the UK and as for the pound ,

Ed Balls as Chancellor and it's all over for the UK.

Labour/SNP coalition is 9/1 on Betfair, 16/1 with Ladbrokes.

[chris2004]

Shocked it hasn't fallen to 35 yet?

(google is my friend)

Don't worry it will be 35 on the 8th May with wee jock McSalmond in charge.

[theoldgit]

Post removed that edited response to change meaning, as well as a response.

[baboon]

It's been interesting watching some of the indicators recently (to my very untrained eye!)

Thai interest rate lowered - Baht strengthens

Thai GDP forecast lowered - Baht strengthens

UK GDP forecast raised - Baht strengthens

Martial law replaced with Section 44 - Baht strengthens

But then could it be that the UK recovery is nothing but smoke and mirrors? It certainly is according to some of my pals..

[dabhand]

Threat of a Labour/SNP coalition in five weeks time is probably going to send GBP right down the pan.

It's a genuine concern.

If this happens God help the UK and as for the pound ,

Ed Balls as Chancellor and it's all over for the UK.

Labour/SNP coalition is 9/1 on Betfair, 16/1 with Ladbrokes.

A couple from Scunthorpe (cue the jokes!) have just won their 2nd £1million prize in two years on the EuroMillions lottery. The odds on that happening are apparently over 280billion to 1.

We may just be in the silly season for unlikely bets actually happening

[meatboy]

after last nights debate ed.millaband has more chance of winning the lottery 3times than the election.

so next week we should see the pound go up a bit.

mon.30th.T.T.rate 48.13.

tues.31st. 47,82.

wed.1st. 47.94.

thur. 2nd. 47.70.

all taken 9am-10am.looks like evil forces at work.

so its weekend time so i wont bet on it following the up and down trend this morning.

[chiang mai]

A few thoughts:

The "weakness" of GBP tracks the strengthening of USD so I'm not sure the political debate really had an impact but it was fun nevertheless.

But as for the underlying state of the UK economy: on the surface things look good but there's a lot of smoke and mirrors in play, zero hour contracts that bolster the employment figures, safe have funds from Europe (and previously) Russia make the currency appear stronger. and much of the current economic boom results from consumer spending on overpriced property.

And if the forex market really does love stability and certainty, that's the last thing that exists in UK politics presently where the options for future government are about as uncertain as they have ever been, on that basis GBP currently should be regarded as weakened.

The fact is that the deficit is still increasing and debt levels have soared, a Labour/SNP government could be the straw that broke .....

On the other side of the equation, THB: is it really over valued, yes by fairly recent historical comparison but as far as fundamentals are concerned, I'm unsure. BOT has spent about USD 15 bill of their foreign currency reserves during the last twelve months, possibly in protecting THB from too rapid of a fall? Dunno. And whilst household debt levels is cause for concern, at 85% of GDP they don't even begin to approach the levels in the UK, needless to say there is no comparison between the levels of government debt of the two countries..

The tourism industry has started to loose Russian tourists but is gaining from an influx of Chinese, those who think that the Thai tourist industry wont continue to reinvent itself should get over themselves, UK and US tourist income is no longer that important,

And the workforce remains unconstrained by unions and high wages, like the UK, Thailand continues to import cheaper labour (officially and otherwise) from surrounding countries, unlike the UK that supply of labour is not a burden on the society or the economy.

Right, shoot away.

[khunphilip]

On 3 april last year the pound=53.70 the dollar 32.33 pound- dollar 1.66. Today 3 april pound 47.78 the dollar 32.32. So the baht is the same against the dollar but the pound to the dollar =1.48.In my reckoning it is all about the pounds strength against the dollar and the dollar strength against the baht

[i claudius]

On 3 april last year the pound=53.70 the dollar 32.33 pound- dollar 1.66. Today 3 april pound 47.78 the dollar 32.32. So the baht is the same against the dollar but the pound to the dollar =1.48.In my reckoning it is all about the pounds strength against the dollar and the dollar strength against the baht

but these in the right order "nail you hit the head on"

[chiang mai]

On 3 april last year the pound=53.70 the dollar 32.33 pound- dollar 1.66. Today 3 april pound 47.78 the dollar 32.32. So the baht is the same against the dollar but the pound to the dollar =1.48.In my reckoning it is all about the pounds strength against the dollar and the dollar strength against the baht

It's not entirely clear if you are suggesting that GBP is strong, but, "In my reckoning it is all about the pounds strength against the dollar", I think that part of the equation is under duress given that the Pound has fallen in value from circa 1.71 in July last year to its current circa 1.49, if truth be told, it's about the strength of USD against both currencies with BOT likely reducing the rate of fall of THB.

In looking forward, another coalition in the UK, particularly a Lab/SNP one would/should case further weakening of GBP, yes?