Thai exports to contract 4 per cent

[Thaivisa News]

Bangkok: – Thailand will likely see the exports dropped by about 4 per cent from January to March due to weak demands in key markets, Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula said.

January saw the decline in exports by 3.7 per cent. The following month saw the drop of 6.1 per cent. And the downward trend would continue for last month’s exports.

The persistence of economic slowdown in Europe, the United States, Japan and China is the primary cause for the contraction of Thai exports, Pridiyathorn said.

Following the implementation of exports boosting strategy, the country should see the rebound of demands for Thai products within two to three years, he said.

The government is pinning its hopes to boost exports through the granting of the investment privileges for production technology designed for value added products.

In regard to the projection of Thai economy for the remaining of 2015, the authorities believe the downward trend has already bottomed out, he said.

The projection is based on two indicators – the increase of VAT revenues by 9.75 per cent in this year’s first quarter and the 51 per cent disbursement of government spending for the first half of fiscal year 2015.

The deputy prime minister said he expects the government spending will be accelerated for this fiscal year’s second half, expecting to further spur the economy.

He also stated that the government had cancelled tax on business earnings generated abroad.

This is to encourage Thai companies to transmit the money back to the country which will, in turn, boost the GDP growth.

[Robbie Dye]

So nothing to with the fact that the Baht is overvalued then?

[h90]

So nothing to with the fact that the Baht is overvalued then?

and nothing with the increase in salaries...

[zaphod reborn]

"The persistence of economic slowdown in Europe, the United States, Japan and China is the primary cause for the contraction of Thai exports, Pridiyathorn said."

Economic slowdown in the US? What kind of data are you smoking?

[goosifer]

"The persistence of economic slowdown in Europe, the United States, Japan and China is the primary cause for the contraction of Thai exports, Pridiyathorn said."

Economic slowdown in the US? What kind of data are you smoking?

Hmmmm....even blaming China....

[Anthony5]

So end of last year they forecast an increase of 5% in exports for 2015, this forecast was reviewed downwards almost every week since, and only last week was said that the export would be have zero growth.

Today we see a decline in exports that grows every month from 3.7 to 6.1% in February, but never mind, the western world understand the situation and the the economy is thriving.

NEXT

[Tatsujin]

Not sure how they tally this with yesterday's extremely optimistic increase in GDP ... however, the Thai's seem to be good with numbers so I'm sure it's all well in hand ...

[taff33]

Impossible.

[elgordo38]

So nothing to with the fact that the Baht is overvalued then?

and nothing with the increase in salaries...

Means nothing the baht will still continue its march upward thanks to a 30% increase in Songkran visitors. Ha Ha Ha

[markt7081]

China has slowed down, the demand for Australian raw materials to china has hit the deck, resource companies in Oz are laying people off & those people wont be contributing to the Aussie economy, less income in Oz means hanging on to your old car, instead of buying new Thai made cars .

Thats one possible reason they cited China.

World economics,

(As much as America likes to think its the world powerhouse, its not the force it once was).

[h90]

"The persistence of economic slowdown in Europe, the United States, Japan and China is the primary cause for the contraction of Thai exports, Pridiyathorn said."

Economic slowdown in the US? What kind of data are you smoking?

Europe has for sure a slowdown. China has just slower grow.

USA and Japan I don't know...

[h90]

China has slowed down, the demand for Australian raw materials to china has hit the deck, resource companies in Oz are laying people off & those people wont be contributing to the Aussie economy, less income in Oz means hanging on to your old car, instead of buying new Thai made cars .

Thats one possible reason they cited China.

World economics,

(As much as America likes to think its the world powerhouse, its not the force it once was).

Well, China closes coal powered electric stations for environmental reasons and may import more from other countries, that has an impact on Australia for sure.

They will also consume less imported food from Thailand if layed off.

[Guest]

anyone here suprised?? the government is to blame for this with the artifical strength of the bart, wake up you lot you are asleep at the wheel

[kaorop]

street wars

coups

floods

major drops in tourists

same with exports

gdp drops

serious household debts

banks carrying books of defaulted property

baht holds

cant see it as anything but serious manipulation.

and yet when china farts, australia has amoebic dysentery

[phrisco17]

Artificially propping up the Bhat, trying to match the strong dollar to give the false impression (World Face) of a strong economy, while most Western and Asian currencies weaken, stiffles Thai exports and discourages foreign tourism. There is no logic, law or morals in Thailand, only smoke and mirrors used to show good face!

[retarius]

This is the beginning of the end. Hopefully we can get back to a weak economy and a weak baht quickly.

[jerojero]

Better start selling to Russia. Oops, they can't buy because they are in worse economic slump above all others. And USA is hardly a slumping economy at this time.

[Naam]

This is the beginning of the end. Hopefully we can get back to a weak economy and a weak baht quickly.

you mean going back 18 years to 1997/98 ?

[Naam]

Artificially propping up the Bhat, trying to match the strong dollar to give the false impression (World Face) of a strong economy, while most Western and Asian currencies weaken, stiffles Thai exports and discourages foreign tourism. There is no logic, law or morals in Thailand, only smoke and mirrors used to show good face!

a strong currency does not necessarily indicate a strong economy or vice versa. any additional comment on your ignorant Thai bashing would be a waste of time.

[morrobay]

Artificially propping up the Bhat, trying to match the strong dollar to give the false impression (World Face) of a strong economy, while most Western and Asian currencies weaken, stiffles Thai exports and discourages foreign tourism. There is no logic, law or morals in Thailand, only smoke and mirrors used to show good face!

a strong currency does not necessarily indicate a strong economy or vice versa. any additional comment on your ignorant Thai bashing would be a waste of time.

The question that most of these folks here are asking that you so called economists are replying with everything and a song to - Except an explanation

as to why the Baht is kept high in a struggling export sector. Like I said before :Just reading the newspapers it is nonsensical

for Thailand to keep the Baht so high relative to the other countries in the region. I dont know what its going to take here to convince you there is a problem,

but its not going to be pretty.

Edited April 10, 2015 by morrobay

[useronthenet]

Thailand will be in denial until it's blue in the face.

[StefanBBK]

Artificially propping up the Bhat, trying to match the strong dollar to give the false impression (World Face) of a strong economy, while most Western and Asian currencies weaken, stiffles Thai exports and discourages foreign tourism. There is no logic, law or morals in Thailand, only smoke and mirrors used to show good face!

a strong currency does not necessarily indicate a strong economy or vice versa. any additional comment on your ignorant Thai bashing would be a waste of time.

People perceive the strength of a currency to be linked to the economy. There are some other factors as well, I believe.

Strong currency makes exports more expensive for the buyer.

I think that phrisco is a bit over the top in his comment, but logic applied here to economic questions is not necessarily what westerners consider logical. I would consider that pointing out a difference, rather than blunt bashing. It could have been worded more conservatively though, I think.

Same for law. Law is there, just the enforcement leaves at times a bit to be desired by standards of our home countries. But this is not our country, so we should not complain or perhaps even comment too much.

Morals some thing. Different places different morals.

Back on topic, I think the biggest impact on exports is the competitiveness. If a country or rather it's industry and agriculture can compete in quality, cost and stability of supply, then exports will rise and vice versa. Not to forget is external demand. If there is declined demand for what you are producing, you can't export it.

In our case I think it is a bit of everything, but price is a huge factor.

[i claudius]

street wars

coups

floods

major drops in tourists

same with exports

gdp drops

serious household debts

banks carrying books of defaulted property

baht holds

cant see it as anything but serious manipulation.

and yet when china farts, australia has amoebic dysentery

You say the banks carrying books of defaulted property ,well the other day i rang regarding a house they had a board on ,and was informed it had just been reduced from 32 million to 27 million , i estimate it was worth ,between 10 and 12 million and even then would take time to sell , remember 1997?

[Naam]

Artificially propping up the Bhat, trying to match the strong dollar to give the false impression (World Face) of a strong economy, while most Western and Asian currencies weaken, stiffles Thai exports and discourages foreign tourism. There is no logic, law or morals in Thailand, only smoke and mirrors used to show good face!

a strong currency does not necessarily indicate a strong economy or vice versa. any additional comment on your ignorant Thai bashing would be a waste of time.

The question that most of these folks here are asking that you so called economists are replying with everything and a song to - Except an explanation

as to why the Baht is kept high in a struggling export sector. Like I said before :Just reading the newspapers it is nonsensical

for Thailand to keep the Baht so high relative to the other countries in the region. I dont know what its going to take here to convince you there is a problem,

but its not going to be pretty.

-no assumptions please, as opposed to you and others i did not judge the Thai economy nor the actions of the Bank of Thailand. my comments targeted silly conspiray theories and ignorant assumptions concerning the tasks and responsibilities of a central bank.

-one of the reasons to prop up the Baht is that Thailand is not only an exporting but also an importing nation. except for agricultural products huge values are imported which are used by exporters (e.g. but not limited to cars and electronic products such as harddrives). another big ticket import item is energy. only the result of evaluating and comparing the pros and cons will give a clear picture which might or might not enable a judgment.

-none of us has all the information for the afore-mentioned evaluation but it is quite reasonable to assume that the BoT is best informed. after all Thailand's economy has done quite well since the crash of 1997 and that not only relative in comparison with other countries but absolute as well.

-wishful thinking and sweet dreams will not weaken the Baht and neither will the bashing of central banks (Bank of Thailand, European Central Bank or Bank of England) have an impact on exchange rates.

last not least i repeat that the resident bashers should do a minimum of homework instead shooting their own feet with unqualified remarks.

[rakman]

"The persistence of economic slowdown in Europe, the United States, Japan and China is the primary cause for the contraction of Thai exports, Pridiyathorn said."

Economic slowdown in the US? What kind of data are you smoking?

With 93 million people not working, labor participation rate lowest since '78 and not improving much, 46 million people on food stamps for the last 38 months. 1st quarter GDP growth looking to be 0 to 1%, the US is not doing well and hasn't for the last 7 years. Add the "new normal" for job growth in the 150k per month instead of 175k, while the population is growing faster than that.

If you have a high tech skill, you're doing ok. If you're a warehouse worker or burger flipper, a robot is answering the job listings.

[goosifer]

For any holders of EUR or GBP for whom further relative THB strength will cause significant deterioration in your quality of life, why not transfer enough THB to live off for the next few years? It is possible we could see GBP/THB down another 20%, who knows, maybe more. So instead of whining, just hedge. Personally i believe the THB is too strong and some time in the next few years it will weaken again, maybe because of export problems, deficit problems or new political instability. But timing is hard. If you don't want to convert to THB, maybe to USD instead, because that has led the THB strength. Frankly, if you live an international life the you need to keep a few different currencies, not only your home currency. Maybe a third GBP, a third USD and a third THB etc.

Edited April 10, 2015 by goosifer

[Naam]

unfortunately a number of people who have to make ends meet on a fixed income (e.g. pension) don't have the option of hedging the currency they need by diversification. pensions and social insurance payments are country and currency specific.

[zierf1]

Raise taxes and keep the currency overvalued. That's going to boost the economy. Yep.

[Cake Monster]

With this 4% predicted contraction inThai exports, there will have to be a hell of a load more quality tourists from China, and else where, to compensate the drop in revenue.

I really cannot see where these tourists will come from, as the Baht is now very uncompetetive, with only 47.8 ( ish ) to the pound, and holding at around 32.5 for the $.

This is also the main reason the exports are falling, as Thailand is now uncompetetive, with Indonesian labour working on 50 cents / hour, things are looking bad for the Thai economy going into Asean.

[kaorop]

street wars

coups

floods

major drops in tourists

same with exports

gdp drops

serious household debts

banks carrying books of defaulted property

baht holds

cant see it as anything but serious manipulation.

and yet when china farts, australia has amoebic dysentery

You say the banks carrying books of defaulted property ,well the other day i rang regarding a house they had a board on ,and was informed it had just been reduced from 32 million to 27 million , i estimate it was worth ,between 10 and 12 million and even then would take time to sell , remember 1997?

From what i was told, (i dont know firsthand, so grain of salt stuff) banks here cant sell a defaulted mortgage property for less than what is owed.

This is why, and i assume, you see so many properties sitting and deteriorating for ever.