Is Pattaya a victim of it's own success ?

[MrWorldwide]

OK - provocative title, but bear with me and hopefully we can have a sane discussion around this. Many are asking why Pattaya seems to be in the grip of a wave of violent crime - I suspect Howard at PattayaOne might be the man to answer that, but bear with me. I'm not being provocative for the sake of it - if you want to challenge any of this I have no problem - all I ask is that you attempt to do your own estimates before commenting.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Thailand#Population

http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/thailand/overview

http://www.indexmundi.com/thailand/population_below_poverty_line.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Thailand#Age_structure

From our stats, 13.2% of the Thai population lives below the poverty line - close to 9 million people. Obviously, many of those are too young or too old / infirm to work, so I've approached it from a slightly different angle.

- lets assume that the population of Thailand between 15 and 55 is ~30 million people - a little under half the 67 million total - just a guesstimate

- take the bottom 10% of that 30 million and you've got 3 million people who are struggling on a daily basis, be it Bangkok or Nakhon Nowhere

- I'm guessing the 'easy money' on offer in Pattaya looks awfully good to a large percentage of that 3 million, but statistically there are between 3-400,000 people in Pattaya at any given time and I estimate roughly 100,000 of those are rural Thais forced to work here out of economic necessity. Statistically, the vast majority of the 100,000 Thais who registered as residents of Pattaya in the last census are Chinese Thais : I'm going to focus on those camping out here not the year-round residents. I've also made no attempt to estimate the number of Thais who live in Pattaya and work in factories in Chonburi - given the commute, I would have thought there was cheaper accommodation on offer closer to said factories. Push on.

So you've got ~100,000 people of working age trying to make enough money to send home or simply keep their heads above water here. Some are clearly doing well - I think some of the food vendors make a good living if the number of people I see lined up at their carts each evening is any indication and others have found 'proper' jobs in retail / tourism etc. Fantastic - lets call that our 'top 30%'.

At this point some will argue with my numbers - fine - but even if my remaining 70% was only 35,000 Thai people living from one day to the next, is that a figure you'd be happy with in a comparably sized city in your home country ? For the purpose of this exercise, let's work from 70,000 Thais of working age in Pattaya who have no guarantee that they will be able to pay their rent at the end of the month, and at this stage I would definitely include many of Pattaya's sex workers in that group. Many of the jobs occupied by rural Thais from outside Chonburi are extremely sensitive to drops in tourism - baht bus/motosai drivers, vendors (particularly people selling something other than food), restaurant workers, laborers, mechanics and, of course, sex workers. I wont attempt to fit Police or those who work for City Hall into that number but obviously they do get some kind of monthly paycheck - many of the girls currently work for ladydrinks, tips and barfines, although a few are still being paid a meagre salary. No idea how the massage harpies are paid but I'm lumping them in with sex workers - bar and street - for the sake of this exercise.

OK - let's take it a step further and apply the 10% rule to that 70k figure - we now have 7000 Thai people who definitely know what it is to go hungry even in a city with so much waste. You can see some of them sleeping rough on Pattaya's streets and many of the night-time beach crowd are inevitably part of that contingent. 7000 people of working age without a great deal to lose in a city which is normally filled with big spending, heavy drinking party people from other countries. People who - if they still have family - cant offer them any sort of regular financial support. If you wanted to write a novel around themes like drug addiction, violence and alcoholism, this is the end of town I'd start at.

We now have our bottom 10%, but surely they cant all be thieves / rapists / murderers ? Contrary to what some here might believe, I sincerely doubt that there are 7000 people in Pattaya currently engaged in serious criminal activity on a regular basis - in the absence of any hard data from the RTP that's purely my assumption. Let's give the 10% rule one more shot : 700 Thai people with nothing to lose and a propensity for crimes that directly impact another human being - assault, theft, drugging or any combination of the above.

Note that I've made no attempt to include the Cambodians, Burmese and Laos citizens who also live here - that's a topic for another thread. Nope, just rural Thais who may or may not consider violent crime a means to an end courtesy of the desperate position many of them are in. I'm also making no attempt to include domestic violence or neighbourhood disputes, although both could obviously be traced back to people on the margins.

To recap:

- ~100k rural Thais of working age in Pattaya from a pool of roughly 3 million at the bottom end of the Thai wealth pyramid dominated by a tiny but incredibly wealthy elite in Bangkok

- only ~30k of that number - in my estimation - are able to point to the calendar and know they will receive 'x' thousand baht for their efforts a month from now

- of the remaining 70k, 7000 are seriously at risk of ending up alongside the beggars already working Pattaya's streets or worse

- finally, IME, there are some 700 Thai people between 15 and 55 in Pattaya prepared to commit violent crime to get what they need, be it food, drugs, alcohol or whatever

- whether their victims are foreigners or other Thais, its often violent crime and it still traumatises the victim

If you disagree with my methodology, OK - I'm not a criminologist or a sociologist, but how many of us couldn't readily identify that bottom group in the towns we grew up in ? Whether it's 70, 700 or 70,000 (Manila ?), there is definitely a hardcore element here who have absolutely no problem with theft, and if violence has to be part of that process it would seem they have no problem with that either. Once you cross that line, taking your frustrations out on others purely to relieve the boredom of an existence spent standing on Beach Road or hanging around outside a karaoke bar has to be an option. Throw in the likelihood that the Thai GF is no longer bringing home several hundred baht in tips/ladydrinks and you've got an angry young man waiting to unleash on someone.

Logically, I could do a spreadsheet for every town in Thailand, change my percentages depending on our collective perception of crime rates in that town, but in the absence of anything from the RTP it would all be speculation. All I'm concerned with atm is Pattaya and the endless round of 'wow - there seem to be a lot of gang attacks in Pattaya !' posts in various threads - my argument is simple:

- Pattaya has attracted many of Thailand's most vulnerable - the good, the bad and the seriously criminal

- in the good years, there was enough money working its way through the town that the majority got what they came here for

- a woeful 'high' season on the back of two low seasons in previous years is making it increasingly hard for Thais on the margins to get their share

- there will always be a small percentage prepared to do whatever it takes to get what they want/need : what the downturn has done is make the pool larger and remove the likelihood that they can rely on other Thais for food and shelter. If desperation breeds crime, the rest is a formality.

How many of that hardcore group would be here if Pattaya was just another Thai city on the coast like Rayong ? I have no idea, but we arent talking Rayong. We're talking about a city where the Police are as corrupt as anywhere else in the country, where the application of the law is often baffling (to say the least) and where anyone with enough money can reportedly buy their way out of almost anything. Whether you accept the figure I've plucked from thin air is irrelevant - clearly, there is a section of the Thai population in Pattaya who have no issue taking what isnt theirs and I believe that was always going to happen when you loaded the town with the very bottom of the aforementioned pyramid. I'm happy to see any verifiable figures anyone else wants to post - also happy to hear that my methodology wont make the New England Journal of Sociology.

I'm still happy to walk Pattaya's streets - Songkran notwithstanding - but I think the BiB need to wake up and realise that giving people 500 baht fines and putting them back on the streets isnt going to solve anything. For the sake of everyone in this town - Thai and foreigner alike - the Police have to start looking at this as a problem which wont magically disappear in low season - if anything, it will probably intensify. Should one of the conditions of a parolee's return to Thai society be that he/she doesnt live in Pattaya/Phuket for the first 6 months post release ? Just putting it out there, Pol Col Superimposinguniform.

Sane replies most welcome.

[petercool]

Can't argue with what you write but the police do not set the low fines for the things you mention nor stipulate what happens after people are released.

That is is all set out in current Criminal Codes etc and dictated by courts.

[Awohalitsiktoli]

Statistics aside........the answer is "yes." I have seen the area evolve for over 20 years now. During that time we have seen the construction of many high-rise condo units (way too many) and a very nice mall (Central Festival Mall). Health care facilities are good in the area, but , in general, the place has lost its former charms. Clearly, Pattaya-Jomtien is the victim of its own success. "Progress" led to overpopulation, crime, pollution (including noise pollution), traffic jams, etc. Much of what was once appealing about the place has been destroyed. Newbies do not understand this because they have no long-term perspective; they only know what they see now and have nothing to compare it to other than what they left behind in their home countries.

[Don Mega]

Is violent crime actually up in percentage or is it the tabloids are just reporting it more ?

[onemorechang]

Got half way through Op post.

Got board mate. to many figures from thin air, and who cares

Rot is at the top. so, its a just get on with it thing.

im off for free beer and ladies.

ok the free ladies is a joke.

Edited April 11, 2015 by onemorechang

[Brit_Doggie]

It's a criminals paradise with unsuspecting punters or visitors,live here for sometime and you get street cred,but i still se the odd unsuspecting persons getting ripped off for whatever reason,drink,beautiful young women.bravado,keep alert at all times even to the people you consider as friends.

[Baxer]

Statistics aside........the answer is "yes." I have seen the area evolve for over 20 years now. During that time we have seen the construction of many high-rise condo units (way too many) and a very nice mall (Central Festival Mall). Health care facilities are good in the area, but , in general, the place has lost its former charms. Clearly, Pattaya-Jomtien is the victim of its own success. "Progress" led to overpopulation, crime, pollution (including noise pollution), traffic jams, etc. Much of what was once appealing about the place has been destroyed. Newbies do not understand this because they have no long-term perspective; they only know what they see now and have nothing to compare it to other than what they left behind in their home countries.

I don't see the charm whit open pedophilia and other shit that was common in the early 90's, so some improvments have been made.

Edited April 11, 2015 by Baxer

[MrWorldwide]

Is violent crime actually up in percentage or is it the tabloids are just reporting it more ?

I've tried to make that point in several posts - if you spend your days at the PattayaOne site, nothing good ever happens in Pattaya and nothing good ever will. It's a Pattaya bashers dream come true.

AFAIK, there is no equivalent for BKK and the logistics of chasing every incident requiring police presence in Bangkok would be untenable even for the Bangkok Post. Pattaya - particularly central Pattaya - is a ridiculously small area compared to Bangkok and Chiang Mai - they can have someone there on a motorbike in minutes in all but the worst gridlock. Get a police scanner or simply pay someone on Soi 9 to alert you every time there is a callout and you're away : instant on-the-spot news service.

[TommyUK1960]

I think the reason for more crime across Thailand (Not just Pattaya) Is the amount of debt that is so easily available from the banks.

When I was here in the late 90s People did not have the amount of debt they have these days. Thai people were more happy, hence the "Thai smile" ,that has well and truly gone these days.

Look around at the number of new cars, New motorbikes, New houses & condos at highly inflated prices and Land prices.

Most is paid for from cheap bank loans. They have to be paid for and most Thais don't make enough money to make the payments,

Most Thia's have no idea of money management. hence they get into financial problems which can lead to drinking and drugs and increased crime.

So its not a case of increased crime in Pattaya, It is increased crime across Thailand.

[onemorechang]

The more Thailand grows the more it gets

the same problems as Falang land.

Thailand is not so special now days. (other places to go, not like 20 years ago)

Hope im still here in 20 more. but who knows.

Edited April 11, 2015 by onemorechang

[brewsterbudgen]

I don't think Pattaya is a victim of anything. It's just a popular tourist resort which means it suffers its fair share of tourist related crime. Nothing unusual about it.

[konying]

Facts of life when economy struggles crime goes up.

Pattaya being mainly tourist populated, makes it an easy target.

No fines or jail time will ever change that.

Some countries have death penalties for drugs yet it does not stop people from selling and using.

Thai laws are also pretty tough on drugs, yet people continue to use, sell and transport.

I also believe younger generation are not being raised with manners or any ethics, They are lazy but want to have all the nice gadgets.

Crime may not have changed but reporting has.

[champers]

Pattaya has changed in the last 50 years from a village to a town to a city and a pretty big city at that. It's a city designed; in the main; to attract tourists and it does seem to do a decent job of it. There are drawbacks, sure, but many positives too. It's a personal choice that people make about whether the positives outweigh the negatives and they can only gain a true perspective by visiting or living in the place, not by reading newspaper reports or even posts on an internet forum.

[ToddinChonburi]

Statistics aside........the answer is "yes." I have seen the area evolve for over 20 years now. During that time we have seen the construction of many high-rise condo units (way too many) and a very nice mall (Central Festival Mall). Health care facilities are good in the area, but , in general, the place has lost its former charms. Clearly, Pattaya-Jomtien is the victim of its own success. "Progress" led to overpopulation, crime, pollution (including noise pollution), traffic jams, etc. Much of what was once appealing about the place has been destroyed. Newbies do not understand this because they have no long-term perspective; they only know what they see now and have nothing to compare it to other than what they left behind in their home countries.

Very Good

[ToddinChonburi]

Remember that cities will grow with time and if the planners do not make changes to keep up you will have the mess you see today. Thailand does not think about secondary roads, being able to get off main during traffic jam or rush hour. Skinny soi's with cars illegally park, double parking and parking in NO PARKING ZONES. Intersection can not handle the traffic, Double Left turn Lanes, Double right turn Lanes . You may see some but not nearly enough. Think about how the west has to take land and expand roadways, what is Thailand doing.

[Bellacissa]

I obviously haven't been here that long, so I don't have a before and after comparison, but I think this happens with any quickly growing city. I also think the advent of the internet has magnified crime statistics that were there all along.

For instance, in the states, people have the perception that child abductions have risen dramatically over the past couple of decades. People won't let their kids out of their sight for even a moment because they're terrified that they'll be abducted. In reality, stranger abductions are way down over the same period of time. But, with the internet and the 24 hour news cycle, people see the crimes that do happen all over the country almost instantly. Whereas, 20 years ago, you really only heard about it if it was in your own hometown.

It's the same here, I think. The perception is that the crime has increased (and it probably has to some degree) but that perception is partly due to the increase in reporting and the ability for us all to sit here and discuss it online. Also, while the number of crimes may have increased, as a percentage of the population, it has probably remained fairly steady or only increased slightly. Statistically speaking, more people in a given area equals more crimes committed in that same area, but it's due to the population increase, not an increase in crime. And yes, I think the economic downturn here has prompted more desperate people to commit more desperate crimes. You see that all over the world, though. Not just here.

Great analysis, by the way. Yes, I read all the way through to the end.

[jiipii]

"Look around at the number of new cars, New motorbikes, New houses & condos at highly inflated prices and Land prices.

Most is paid for from cheap bank loans."

Tell me, where in Thailand you can find "cheap bank loans" then i borrow too, and buy a condo.

Mortgage interest about 7%.

Installment motorbike int. 50%.

Car loans 15%.

Loan sharks 20%/week.

That is the reason. They can not pay back loans, pay only the interest forever.

[simple1]

OP: An issue you have not mentioned.

I personally know a number of Pattaya born Thais who suffer from poverty. In fact, via my wife, I have helped out some who were desperate for cash to pay off black market loans they had incured to pay for things such as school uniforms and better access to medical care from places such as Red Cross Hospital in Sri Racha (many do not trust Banglamung govt hospital for serious illness). Black money is a major curse in Thailand and contributes to the overall level of street crime, many stay deeply in debt for year upon year just to cater for family requirements.

As an aside you probably know the aged pension for those who worked in the cash society is about 700 baht a month, thus putting further pressure on the household budget.

I do know that endemic use of YaBa contributes to a great deal of street crime, you can guess who mainly controls the distribution in Pattaya to street level gangs.

[MrWorldwide]

Pattaya has changed in the last 50 years from a village to a town to a city and a pretty big city at that. It's a city designed; in the main; to attract tourists and it does seem to do a decent job of it. There are drawbacks, sure, but many positives too. It's a personal choice that people make about whether the positives outweigh the negatives and they can only gain a true perspective by visiting or living in the place, not by reading newspaper reports or even posts on an internet forum.

I take your point champers - I've lived here for the past 12 months and was a regular visitor for 18 years before that, so this isnt exactly my first rodeo. I spend a lot of time on the alleged 'mean streets' in central Pattaya at night but I dont go looking for trouble and thankfully it hasnt come looking for me, at least not yet. When it comes to trying to point out why Pattaya may be facing issues in 2015 and why I fear things could get worse, I readily admit that I dont have the perspective of someone who has been here for 20+ years, but I imagiine that many of those folks currently live their lives well away from the nightlife strip - always happy to hear otherwise. I readily admit that my post is based on way too much speculation, but at the other end of that we have the steady stream of negative publicity from the likes of PattayaOne and other news agencies happy to plaster photos of blood-soaked foreigners all over their site for the world to see. I also wanted to be able to refer some of the serial 'Pattaya is a dreadful place' posters to some of the reasons why I believe we have problems with violent crime without having to repeat my somewhat contrived arithmetic.

[MrWorldwide]

OP: An issue you have not mentioned.

I personally know a number of Pattaya born Thais who suffer from poverty. In fact, via my wife, I have helped out some who were desperate for cash to pay off black market loans they had incured to pay for things such as school uniforms and better access to medical care from places such as Red Cross Hospital in Sri Racha (many do not trust Banglamung govt hospital for serious illness). Black money is a major curse in Thailand and contributes to the overall level of street crime, many stay deeply in debt for year upon year just to cater for family requirements.

As an aside you probably know the aged pension for those who worked in the cash society is about 700 baht a month, thus putting further pressure on the household budget.

I do know that endemic use of YaBa contributes to a great deal of street crime, you can guess who mainly controls the distribution in Pattaya to street level gangs.

Excellent point, and you may have filled in a massive gap in my understanding of the resident Thai population here. I know its a stereotype but I tend to assume that most Chinese Thais are relatively well off financially : logic says that there must be a percentage of that population which isnt doing so well, but I ignored them. Whatever the stats say, there also has to be a segment of the population born here to parents from outside Chonburi province and for whatever reason they've remained in Pattaya. Perhaps someone who can read Thai and has access to the data from the last census might be able to do a better job than this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pattaya#Demographics

I also admit I dont have any figures on drug abuse in Pattaya - only anecdotal evidence that its a growing problem, but that's the line the tabloid media pushes so I'll leave it there. If I had to give an estimate of the number of sex workers I've encountered with a physical and mental dependence on alcohol to get through an average day, it would be in the region of 50% : that's a staggering number of people in a city like Pattaya. I dont need to breath-test every motorbike rider in Pattaya to know that this town consumes more than its fair share of alcohol - the wholesaler near me is constantly loading and unloading vehicles from their cramped Klang warehouse and the karaoke bars downstairs are still going strong well after the Farang bar contingent have left for the night.

On your other point, I didnt even know there *was* an aged pension in Thailand - I just assumed the rest of the family was responsible for mama and papa in their old age. All extra pressure to send money home, and I'm left wondering how much of that money is still finding its way back to Isaan in 2015.

[MZurf]

It's a criminals paradise with unsuspecting punters or visitors,live here for sometime and you get street cred,but i still se the odd unsuspecting persons getting ripped off for whatever reason,drink,beautiful young women.bravado,keep alert at all times even to the people you consider as friends.

Wow! Do you actually live here or are you just another boring Pattaya basher?

[Rimmer]

Some off topic and troll posts removed

[simple1]

OP: I was referring to Thai Muslim who were a large proportion of the local population and in some areas still are. Over on the 'Dark Side' much of the land and shop houses are owned by some Thai Muslim families though they do not display their wealth. In the reverse quite extensive poverty.

Again as a bit of background info many of the beach businesses such as umbrella / chair rentals are owned by local Thai Muslims; many are licensed beach massage ladies. Motorbike taxi drivers etc, etc. In addition there are a number of Thai Muslim local politicians.

[MrWorldwide]

OP: I was referring to Thai Muslim who were a large proportion of the local population and in some areas still are. Over on the 'Dark Side' much of the land and shop houses are owned by some Thai Muslim families though they do not display their wealth. In the reverse quite extensive poverty.

Again as a bit of background info many of the beach businesses such as umbrella / chair rentals are owned by local Thai Muslims; many are licensed beach massage ladies. Motorbike taxi drivers etc, etc. In addition there are a number of Thai Muslim local politicians.

OK - my mistake - I've seen a few at Big C extra wearing the hijab or the Malay-style hat but I cant say I've seen many elsewhere here.