BOT admits Thai baht continued to appreciate

[webfact]

BOT admits Thai baht continued to appreciate

BANGKOK, 23 April 2015, (NNT) - The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has admitted that the Thai baht has recently appreciated, due to under-performing economic figures in the United States causing the dollar to depreciate.

BOT Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul stated that Asian currencies are also experiencing depreciation due to country-specific factors. He said these elements will be further explored during a meeting between the BOT and the Monetary Policy Committee on April 29.

However, he said that he believed Thailand’s economy in the second and third quarters would improve from the first quarter.

The National Economic and Social Development Board of Thailand (NESDB) has forecast three percent growth in the first quarter of 2015. Mr. Prasarn has pointed out that the NESDB’s projection has two implications.

The governor explained that if the figure is compared to the same period last year, then it is considered high growth. However, if the figure is compared to the previous quarter, then growth is minimal.


-- NNT 2015-04-23

[smedly]

nothing like saying a whole lot that means absolutely nothing - is it time this man was replaced ?

I'd like to see this mans overseas investments exposed and those of his close relatives as he seems completely reluctant to do anything that benefits the country, he is either completely dumb (which I doubt) or is putting his own and several other influential peoples interests before the National interest, either way it is being very poorly managed

[thailand49]

Some will never believe it but just the Thai way of saying they are going to manipulate the rate to suit their needs.

[heybruce]

Some will never believe it but just the Thai way of saying they are going to manipulate the rate to suit their needs.

Not the needs of the country, but the needs of a select few.

[heybruce]

BOT admits Thai baht continued to appreciate

So the BOT is admitting the obvious. The entire Thai tourism industry knew this, along with export industries, tourists, and ex-pats.

With the benefit of hindsight, it seems this news release http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/806996-kasikorn-thai-baht-to-fluctuate-between-3225-3255-per-us-dollar-this-week/?hl=%2Bbaht+%2Bdollar was an announcement that the Thai government intended to manipulate the baht to link it to the dollar. The dollar has been appreciating against most major currencies, taking the baht with it, and hurting the tourism and export sectors of the economy. Now it seems someone is using the recent small depreciation of the dollar to obscure what has been going on. Hopefully this will be used as cover to allow unlinking the baht from the dollar and allow the baht to sink to a reasonable value.

[chiang mai]

nothing like saying a whole lot that means absolutely nothing - is it time this man was replaced ?

I'd like to see this mans overseas investments exposed and those of his close relatives as he seems completely reluctant to do anything that benefits the country, he is either completely dumb (which I doubt) or is putting his own and several other influential peoples interests before the National interest, either way it is being very poorly managed

Utter nonesence, simply because you don't understand that THB is strengthening is no reason to accuse BOT staff of criminal activity.

[butch333]

i don't see any interest to speak about this . anyway they do what they want as thailand is the country of the world and the thai culture is the number one in the world . so , why do you want to change anythink ? it's well know that the tourist come here for that , only , and that the foreign compagnies invest in thailand just for that . and for the real thainess too , of course , i forget .

[Time Traveller]

Some will never believe it but just the Thai way of saying they are going to manipulate the rate to suit their needs.

Let me guess, you're struggling to make ends meet from a measely income from outside of thailand, looking for someone to blame. So you decide to blame the exchange rate and convinced yourself the BoT is manipulating exchange rates even though you have no evidence whatsoever and clearly it would be in their own interest to do the opposite of what you are accusing them of doing.

Here's the truth. Thailand is a net importer of oil in the amount of about 12% of it's GDP. 12months ago they were paying $110 a barrel for oil they import. Today, they are paying half that amount. Effectively, saving the country 6% of GDP by money that is not flowing out of the country to pay for imports. Simply put, thailand is saving about $1bln to $1.5bln each month on their Balance of Trade. So even if thailand's exports flatline, and the fact their imports cost less, and their balance of trade is improving, will add to the appreciation trend for the Baht.

Because of this, BoT may in fact be intervening in the currency. But not trying to make it stornger, they could possibly be doing the opposite, slowing down the appreciation. ]

So please stop your garbage talk about how it's a conspiracy that BoT is trying to make the Baht stronger (trying to kill their own economy perhaps?). You just sound like a pitiful conspiracy nutter.

Edited April 23, 2015 by Time Traveller

[smedly]

nothing like saying a whole lot that means absolutely nothing - is it time this man was replaced ?

I'd like to see this mans overseas investments exposed and those of his close relatives as he seems completely reluctant to do anything that benefits the country, he is either completely dumb (which I doubt) or is putting his own and several other influential peoples interests before the National interest, either way it is being very poorly managed

Utter nonesence, simply because you don't understand that THB is strengthening is no reason to accuse BOT staff of criminal activity.

really ? you think I am wrong ? you think the current value of the baht is good for Thailand ? you think there are no influential people in Thailand that are manipulating the price for their own interests ? you think the BOT and it's head are free from corruption ?

are you really that naïve ?

[micmichd]

The US$ depreciated???

Against other major currencies like EUR, AUD, GBP the USD has only appreciated!

Both is possible.

It could mean that the depreciation of EUR etc is faster than the depreciation of USD, while THB remains stable.

[chiang mai]

nothing like saying a whole lot that means absolutely nothing - is it time this man was replaced ?

I'd like to see this mans overseas investments exposed and those of his close relatives as he seems completely reluctant to do anything that benefits the country, he is either completely dumb (which I doubt) or is putting his own and several other influential peoples interests before the National interest, either way it is being very poorly managed

Utter nonesence, simply because you don't understand that THB is strengthening is no reason to accuse BOT staff of criminal activity.

really ? you think I am wrong ? you think the current value of the baht is good for Thailand ? you think there are no influential people in Thailand that are manipulating the price for their own interests ? you think the BOT and it's head are free from corruption ?

are you really that naïve ?

Yes I think you are very wrong that THB is being manipulated to serve the interest of the BOT governor.

Yes I think BOT is free of corruption, as it pertains to the value of THB.

If you have proof otherwise post it, if you don't, stop rumour mongering, just because you don't like the value of THB

[smedly]

Some will never believe it but just the Thai way of saying they are going to manipulate the rate to suit their needs.

Let me guess, you're struggling to make ends meet from a measely income from outside of thailand, looking for someone to blame. So you decide to blame the exchange rate and convinced yourself the BoT is manipulating exchange rates even though you have no evidence whatsoever and clearly it would be in their own interest to do the opposite of what you are accusing them of doing.

Here's the truth. Thailand is a net importer of oil in the amount of about 12% of it's GDP. 12months ago they were paying $110 a barrel for oil they import. Today, they are paying half that amount. Effectively, saving the country 6% of GDP by money that is not flowing out of the country to pay for imports. Simply put, thailand is saving about $1bln to $1.5bln each month on their Balance of Trade. So even if thailand's exports flatline, the fact their imports costs less will add to the appreciation trend for the Baht.

Because of this, BoT may in fact be intervening in the currency. But not trying to make it stornger, they could possibly be doing the opposite, slowing down the appreciation. ]

So please stop your garbage talk about how it's a conspiracy that BoT is trying to make the Baht stronger (trying to kill their own economy perhaps?). You just sound like a pitiful conspiracy nutter.

Just that simple - right ?

it might be of interest to note that Thailand is primarily an exporter, tourism alone which is in fact an export accounts for more than 12% of GDP - then there's the rest

also using words like garbage and nutter when referring to other peoples input on this forum is far from constructive

as for myself it matters not a jot what the exchange rate is as I have a choice of using baht or my home currency

[deecee10]

The world's major currencies are affected by their countries own domestic economic situation. Yet the Thai baht's value appears to be impervious to Thailand's economic frailties.

Why?

[chiang mai]

The world's major currencies are affected by their countries own domestic economic situation. Yet the Thai baht's value appears to be impervious to Thailand's economic frailties.

Why?

Key factors that affect the value of a currency include: interest rate, public debt, inflation levels, trade and balance of payments and economic/political stability, none of which are unduly poor in the case of Thailand whereas some are very very positive, by comparison.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/04/050704.asp

Edited April 23, 2015 by chiang mai

[Time Traveller]

Some will never believe it but just the Thai way of saying they are going to manipulate the rate to suit their needs.

Let me guess, you're struggling to make ends meet from a measely income from outside of thailand, looking for someone to blame. So you decide to blame the exchange rate and convinced yourself the BoT is manipulating exchange rates even though you have no evidence whatsoever and clearly it would be in their own interest to do the opposite of what you are accusing them of doing.

Here's the truth. Thailand is a net importer of oil in the amount of about 12% of it's GDP. 12months ago they were paying $110 a barrel for oil they import. Today, they are paying half that amount. Effectively, saving the country 6% of GDP by money that is not flowing out of the country to pay for imports. Simply put, thailand is saving about $1bln to $1.5bln each month on their Balance of Trade. So even if thailand's exports flatline, the fact their imports costs less will add to the appreciation trend for the Baht.

Because of this, BoT may in fact be intervening in the currency. But not trying to make it stornger, they could possibly be doing the opposite, slowing down the appreciation. ]

So please stop your garbage talk about how it's a conspiracy that BoT is trying to make the Baht stronger (trying to kill their own economy perhaps?). You just sound like a pitiful conspiracy nutter.

Just that simple - right ?

it might be of interest to note that Thailand is primarily an exporter, tourism alone which is in fact an export accounts for more than 12% of GDP - then there's the rest

also using words like garbage and nutter when referring to other peoples input on this forum is far from constructive

as for myself it matters not a jot what the exchange rate is as I have a choice of using baht or my home currency

Yes, using those words is not constructive, I agree. But let's consider the facts. Here are 3:

1. There is no evidence whatsoever that they are intentially trying to make the Baht stronger

2. There is no motive to make the baht stronger, becuase it would simply damage the Thai economy by doing so.

3. There is a perfectly rational explanation explaining why the Baht could have a bias toward appreciating - which I outlined in my post above.

So, No evidence, No motive, and a simple explanation for the Baht's current level. What do you have except crazy conspiracy theories?

[Sydebolle]

Let's wait for July 1st. A mid-year bank holiday = excellent opportunity to devalue. Remember 18 years ago? Chavalit took 17 months to follow the IMFs and WBs suggestion to unpeg the THB from the USD = the USD jumped upto THB 56.
I - for one - keep my THB positions to a bare minimum and if you can, send as much THB out of the country - you can always transfer it back, Nuff said!

[smedly]

The US$ depreciated???

Against other major currencies like EUR, AUD, GBP the USD has only appreciated!

More nonesence, USD has weakened against GBP, down from 1.46 on 12 April to almost 1.50.

It isn't nonsense....as you are well aware, over the course of the last several months, the USD has appreciated vs the GBP, going from $1.70 to the GBP last July to $1.50 or so today. It's laughable that you're using a 10 day time frame to try to make the counterargument.

What's laughable is you trying to extend the time line out to last July to defend your wet dream that USD "has only appreciated" when the OP and the subject matter refers to "recently"!

another reason to support my original post that the man should be removed from office

over 6 a month period the USD and THB have tracked each other with little change, both have strengthened about 10% against GBP and about 25% against the Euro, rough figures but the trend is obvious

China manipulates its own currency to suit itself - perhaps Thailand should consider doing the same

[rebelplatoon]

I thought only the ostrich was known for sticking its head in the sand. Ah well, up to them. The high Baht is devastating exports and right now they are 3 months late in handling this matter.

[elgordo38]

The world's major currencies are affected by their countries own domestic economic situation. Yet the Thai baht's value appears to be impervious to Thailand's economic frailties.

Why?

I scratch my head on this one to. Canada has just submitted a balanced budget and will start paying down debt yet our currency keeps falling makes no sense. I know we are a petro dollar to some degree but how many countries are balancing the books hardly any.

[Thai at Heart]

nothing like saying a whole lot that means absolutely nothing - is it time this man was replaced ?

I'd like to see this mans overseas investments exposed and those of his close relatives as he seems completely reluctant to do anything that benefits the country, he is either completely dumb (which I doubt) or is putting his own and several other influential peoples interests before the National interest, either way it is being very poorly managed

Utter nonesence, simply because you don't understand that THB is strengthening is no reason to accuse BOT staff of criminal activity.

really ? you think I am wrong ? you think the current value of the baht is good for Thailand ? you think there are no influential people in Thailand that are manipulating the price for their own interests ? you think the BOT and it's head are free from corruption ?

are you really that naïve ?

Yes I think you are very wrong that THB is being manipulated to serve the interest of the BOT governor.

Yes I think BOT is free of corruption, as it pertains to the value of THB.

If you have proof otherwise post it, if you don't, stop rumour mongering, just because you don't like the value of THB

If the BOT wasn't intervening, it would be 25 to the USD. Interest rates in the USA are zilch, money has been flooding into Asia for the last 5 years. Remember about 3 years ago, it got to 29 to the USD, the reason it hasnt' stayed there is because of gentle intervention from BOT.

The overall issue isn't overwhelming strength of the baht, but low interest rates and money printing in the USA, EU and UK. All these people sitting in Nakorn Nowhere believingt that Thailand makes nothing worth having the world over are so misinformed it is ludicrous. THailand isnt an industrial powerhouse, but it makes a lot more stuff than people give it credit for.

[smedly]

Some will never believe it but just the Thai way of saying they are going to manipulate the rate to suit their needs.

Let me guess, you're struggling to make ends meet from a measely income from outside of thailand, looking for someone to blame. So you decide to blame the exchange rate and convinced yourself the BoT is manipulating exchange rates even though you have no evidence whatsoever and clearly it would be in their own interest to do the opposite of what you are accusing them of doing.

Here's the truth. Thailand is a net importer of oil in the amount of about 12% of it's GDP. 12months ago they were paying $110 a barrel for oil they import. Today, they are paying half that amount. Effectively, saving the country 6% of GDP by money that is not flowing out of the country to pay for imports. Simply put, thailand is saving about $1bln to $1.5bln each month on their Balance of Trade. So even if thailand's exports flatline, the fact their imports costs less will add to the appreciation trend for the Baht.

Because of this, BoT may in fact be intervening in the currency. But not trying to make it stornger, they could possibly be doing the opposite, slowing down the appreciation. ]

So please stop your garbage talk about how it's a conspiracy that BoT is trying to make the Baht stronger (trying to kill their own economy perhaps?). You just sound like a pitiful conspiracy nutter.

Just that simple - right ?

it might be of interest to note that Thailand is primarily an exporter, tourism alone which is in fact an export accounts for more than 12% of GDP - then there's the rest

also using words like garbage and nutter when referring to other peoples input on this forum is far from constructive

as for myself it matters not a jot what the exchange rate is as I have a choice of using baht or my home currency

Yes, using those words is not constructive, I agree. But let's consider the facts. Here are 3:

1. There is no evidence whatsoever that they are intentially trying to make the Baht stronger

2. There is no motive to make the baht stronger, becuase it would simply damage the Thai economy by doing so.

3. There is a perfectly rational explanation explaining why the Baht could have a bias toward appreciating - which I outlined in my post above.

So, No evidence, No motive, and a simple explanation for the Baht's current level. What do you have except crazy conspiracy theories?

1. There is no evidence whatsoever that they are intentially trying to make the Baht stronger

never said there was - it was an opinion based on the fact that some of the richer Thais could benefit

2. There is no motive to make the baht stronger, becuase it would simply damage the Thai economy by doing so.

it is damaging the Thai economy, I thought that was obvious

3. There is a perfectly rational explanation explaining why the Baht could have a bias toward appreciating - which I outlined in my post above.

In your opinion

So, No evidence, No motive, and a simple explanation for the Baht's current level. What do you have except crazy conspiracy theories?

yours is a theory too

and look I replied to your post without the inclusion of one personal insult (no need for it), insults and personal attacks have no place on these forums - all it takes is one person to start and the thread goes down a meaningless pit

[chiang mai]

The US$ depreciated???

Against other major currencies like EUR, AUD, GBP the USD has only appreciated!

More nonesence, USD has weakened against GBP, down from 1.46 on 12 April to almost 1.50.

It isn't nonsense....as you are well aware, over the course of the last several months, the USD has appreciated vs the GBP, going from $1.70 to the GBP last July to $1.50 or so today. It's laughable that you're using a 10 day time frame to try to make the counterargument.

What's laughable is you trying to extend the time line out to last July to defend your wet dream that USD "has only appreciated" when the OP and the subject matter refers to "recently"!

another reason to support my original post that the man should be removed from office

over 6 a month period the USD and THB have tracked each other with little change, both have strengthened about 10% against GBP and about 25% against the Euro, rough figures but the trend is obvious

China manipulates its own currency to suit itself - perhaps Thailand should consider doing the same

It is more than just presumed that BOT does manipulate the Baht, it is strongly believed to spend foriegn currency reserves in order to prevent the Baht from appreciating too rapidly. In that respect I believe the man has done an excellent job.

[quandow]

Silly farang, if Thai man says it's true, then it's true!

Thainess defined!!!

[Time Traveller]

Yes, using those words is not constructive, I agree. But let's consider the facts. Here are 3:

1. There is no evidence whatsoever that they are intentially trying to make the Baht stronger

2. There is no motive to make the baht stronger, becuase it would simply damage the Thai economy by doing so.

3. There is a perfectly rational explanation explaining why the Baht could have a bias toward appreciating - which I outlined in my post above.

So, No evidence, No motive, and a simple explanation for the Baht's current level. What do you have except crazy conspiracy theories?

1. There is no evidence whatsoever that they are intentially trying to make the Baht stronger

never said there was - it was an opinion based on the fact that some of the richer Thais could benefit

2. There is no motive to make the baht stronger, becuase it would simply damage the Thai economy by doing so.

it is damaging the Thai economy, I thought that was obvious

3. There is a perfectly rational explanation explaining why the Baht could have a bias toward appreciating - which I outlined in my post above.

In your opinion

So, No evidence, No motive, and a simple explanation for the Baht's current level. What do you have except crazy conspiracy theories?

yours is a theory too

and look I replied to your post without the inclusion of one personal insult (no need for it), insults and personal attacks have no place on these forums - all it takes is one person to start and the thread goes down a meaningless pit

Yes mine is a theory. But it's the most credible theory. I have no bias one way or another - I really don't care where the Baht trades at. But I do know a little something about economics, central banker crooks and rich people.

And thats the thing, if you need an exchange rate 10% or 20% weaker of stronger, then you're not really that rich and powerful, are you?

To actually suggest that someone inside the Central Bank has the power to damage the economy - and is actually doing under the noses of everyone - just so he or she can save 10% on the cost of the son's private schooling fees at the Swiss finishing academy - it's laughable. And I have not even heard one person outlne any other reason except to say "it's a conspiracy"........nothing. zero.

[TheFishman1]

When these guys speak just think opposite then it all makes it easy to understand

[TheFishman1]

When these guys speak just think opposite then it all makes it easy to understand This is Thailand

[khunken]

Let me guess, you're struggling to make ends meet from a measely income from outside of thailand, looking for someone to blame. So you decide to blame the exchange rate and convinced yourself the BoT is manipulating exchange rates even though you have no evidence whatsoever and clearly it would be in their own interest to do the opposite of what you are accusing them of doing.

Here's the truth. Thailand is a net importer of oil in the amount of about 12% of it's GDP. 12months ago they were paying $110 a barrel for oil they import. Today, they are paying half that amount. Effectively, saving the country 6% of GDP by money that is not flowing out of the country to pay for imports. Simply put, thailand is saving about $1bln to $1.5bln each month on their Balance of Trade. So even if thailand's exports flatline, the fact their imports costs less will add to the appreciation trend for the Baht.

Because of this, BoT may in fact be intervening in the currency. But not trying to make it stornger, they could possibly be doing the opposite, slowing down the appreciation. ]

So please stop your garbage talk about how it's a conspiracy that BoT is trying to make the Baht stronger (trying to kill their own economy perhaps?). You just sound like a pitiful conspiracy nutter.

Just that simple - right ?

it might be of interest to note that Thailand is primarily an exporter, tourism alone which is in fact an export accounts for more than 12% of GDP - then there's the rest

also using words like garbage and nutter when referring to other peoples input on this forum is far from constructive

as for myself it matters not a jot what the exchange rate is as I have a choice of using baht or my home currency

Yes, using those words is not constructive, I agree. But let's consider the facts. Here are 3:

1. There is no evidence whatsoever that they are intentially trying to make the Baht stronger

2. There is no motive to make the baht stronger, becuase it would simply damage the Thai economy by doing so.

3. There is a perfectly rational explanation explaining why the Baht could have a bias toward appreciating - which I outlined in my post above.

So, No evidence, No motive, and a simple explanation for the Baht's current level. What do you have except crazy conspiracy theories?

1. There is no evidence whatsoever that they are intentially trying to make the Baht stronger

never said there was - it was an opinion based on the fact that some of the richer Thais could benefit

2. There is no motive to make the baht stronger, becuase it would simply damage the Thai economy by doing so.

it is damaging the Thai economy, I thought that was obvious

3. There is a perfectly rational explanation explaining why the Baht could have a bias toward appreciating - which I outlined in my post above.

In your opinion

So, No evidence, No motive, and a simple explanation for the Baht's current level. What do you have except crazy conspiracy theories?

yours is a theory too

and look I replied to your post without the inclusion of one personal insult (no need for it), insults and personal attacks have no place on these forums - all it takes is one person to start and the thread goes down a meaningless pit

I'm not going to insult you Smedly because you normally post sensible stuff. But not here.

You posted your conspiracy theory about the BOT and Prasarn and other posters have asked for some evidence. You have provided none.

Yes the strong Baht is not good for many expats and some tend to post unverified accusations because they are hurting personally, with the country being of secondary (or worse) importance.

Thai At Heart posted a very sensible take on the issue which I agree with. Remember AFAIK the Thai Baht rate is based on a basket of currencies with the US$ obviously being the largest.

[willyumiii]

32.4740 baht to 1.0 USD

according to Bloomberg on 23 April 2015 @ 5:30 pm in Thailand.

That puts the USD up a little bit from last time I checked.

That is all that really matters to me.

Thank you..

Edited April 23, 2015 by willyumiii

[metisdead]

Off topic deflection posts and replies have been removed. This is not about GBP/USD exchange rates.

[chiang mai]

Here's the minutes of the most recent Thai MPC meeting, they're worth reading:

https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/ReportMPC/Minute_N2/MPC_Minutes_22015_M5010.pdf

Edited April 23, 2015 by chiang mai