Myanmar Is Pivoting Away from China

[Jonathan Fairfield]

Myanmar Is Pivoting Away from China

BY DHRUVA JAISHANKAR

NGON — Not that long ago, it would have been unimaginable for Myanmar’s most famous political leader — former dissident and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi — to travel to Beijing at the invitation of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP). For decades, Beijing helped prop up Myanmar’s military junta that had placed Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest.

In mid-June, however, it rolled out the red carpet for her and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). In a telling break from protocol, the opposition leader even scored a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping himself. “The invitation,” China’s state news agency Xinhua rather blithely wrote in an editorial just before the visit, shows that the CCP “stands ready to engage with any political parties as long as they are willing to promote the sound development of relations with China.”

If only. Beijing’s effort at currying favour with Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD is borne partly of desperation, and indicates how swiftly Beijing’s stock in Myanmar is falling. China was Myanmar’s main backer and largest investor during its years of international seclusion, supporting strategic infrastructure projects such as oil and gas pipelines, ports, and dams.

Between 1988 and 2013, China accounted for a whopping 42 percent of the $33.67 billion in foreign investment that flowed into Myanmar. But the nature of these projects — including concerns about forcibly-relocated populations, land confiscation, environmental hazards, and the inflow of cheap goods and labor — made China unpopular with the Burmese public (the extent of such sentiments is impossible to determine, in the absence of reliable public-opinion surveys.)

Read more: https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/15/myanmar-burma-is-pivoting-away-from-china-aung-san-suu-kyi-xi-jinping-india/

[Katipo]

I've been to Myanmar 4 times in the last few years and I have never come across anyone there who likes China. In fact, I would go so far to saw that those I have spoken to (admittedly less than 10) have a surprisingly strong dislike for the place. Basically they see China as raping them of their valuable natural resources in exchange for shitty consumer goods.

[Scouse123]

Sounds about right! That's China style all over.

[Srikcir]

"forcibly-relocated populations, land confiscation, environmental hazards, and the inflow of cheap goods and labor"

Not a problem for the Junta.

[siam2007]

I've been to Myanmar 4 times in the last few years and I have never come across anyone there who likes China. In fact, I would go so far to saw that those I have spoken to (admittedly less than 10) have a surprisingly strong dislike for the place. Basically they see China as raping them of their valuable natural resources in exchange for shitty consumer goods.

I can only second that and I am in Myanmar frequently too. They will tell you that even you do not actually ask them about their opinion on China (and I am not interested in any discussions about "race" or "religion" anyway).

but chances are, such sentiment will grow in Thailand too....

and usually, things happen for a reason....

[Johpa]

The Burmese government has been slowly, judiciously, and very diplomatically, attempting to lessen Chinese influence for at least a decade now if for nothing else out of distrust of China. This was clearly seen in the allowing of Suu Kyi access to the west via Hillary Clinton and the allowing of the corporate west to take a gander at investing in Burma. It will be interesting to watch the dynamic play out as Thailand allows China to take even more control of Thailand, especially with the dramatic increase in Chinese tourism that puts boots on the ground so to speak, while Burma attempts to continue the disengagement with the Chinese.

[Tomtomtom69]

I've been to Myanmar 4 times in the last few years and I have never come across anyone there who likes China. In fact, I would go so far to saw that those I have spoken to (admittedly less than 10) have a surprisingly strong dislike for the place. Basically they see China as raping them of their valuable natural resources in exchange for shitty consumer goods.

I can only second that and I am in Myanmar frequently too. They will tell you that even you do not actually ask them about their opinion on China (and I am not interested in any discussions about "race" or "religion" anyway).

but chances are, such sentiment will grow in Thailand too....

and usually, things happen for a reason....

I go to Myanmar for business frequently too and in fact will be heading there again next week and I agree with both of your sentiments as most Burmese I've spoken to say the same thing. Although admittedly there have been more conversations (always initiated by my Burmese counterparts) about Muslims and the Rohingya or Bengalis as they call them than the Chinese. Anti Rohingya and in general anti-Muslim sentiment runs much deeper than any anti-Chinese sentiment in my experience.

But I also happen to be one of the very few foreigners to have been to Mu-se, the Chinese border town opposite Ruili. This is because many foreigners believe it's closed unless you go there with a permit. It turns out that since 2013 you don't need a permit anymore to visit the town, but still need one to cross the border into China. Even so, that border crossing is slated to open as an international crossing soon. What I did notice though was a surprisingly low Chinese influence in terms of signs and even Chinese people in the cities, towns and villages between Mandalay and the border. Sure, there are ethnic Chinese there, but they mostly keep a low profile and since only Burmese and English language signs are permitted to be displayed in Myanmar, one really does not see much Chinese even in the borderlands near the border. Mu-se, being a border town has quite a few Chinese signs but not nearly as many as I expected and virtually every shopkeeper I encountered was Burmese (quite a few of whom speak Chinese). I've been there twice and the place is a complete contrast to say northern Laos, which has now firmly become an extension of China evidenced by the large Chinese community, number of Chinese businesses and almost complete absence of Lao language signs in many places. Laos has allowed China to take over much of their country (including an apparent plan to settle a million Chinese in Laos in coming years) and there seems to be little public outcry as the Lao are seemingly OK with this. Even if they're not happy, they're probably not allowed to say anything otherwise they'll be put in jail.

You won't find this in Myanmar - although there are a couple of ethnic Chinese groups that use the Chinese language, currency, phone numbers and even time zone but unlike in Laos these are special enclaves run by ethnic Chinese warlords that are not under Myanmar government control and do not represent a new influx of Chinese. Instead, these people have been living in the area for generations and if it wasn't for British colonization would likely have been absorbed into Yunnan province already. The only one a visitor will likely be to visit is Mongla, about 200km north of Mae Sai. That city is open for tourism, whereas the recent Kokang conflict centered in Laukkai, in the far north north-east of Shan State means visitors aren't permitted to travel there.

[Tomtomtom69]

The Burmese government has been slowly, judiciously, and very diplomatically, attempting to lessen Chinese influence for at least a decade now if for nothing else out of distrust of China. This was clearly seen in the allowing of Suu Kyi access to the west via Hillary Clinton and the allowing of the corporate west to take a gander at investing in Burma. It will be interesting to watch the dynamic play out as Thailand allows China to take even more control of Thailand, especially with the dramatic increase in Chinese tourism that puts boots on the ground so to speak, while Burma attempts to continue the disengagement with the Chinese.

We'll have to see how that plays out for Thailand. But in the meantime I'm not too worried as all we're seeing are more Chinese tourists, which therefore means more services, restaurant menus, shop signs in Chinese for this demographic. But you won't come across a situation like in Laos.

Most of northern Laos is now firmly in the hands of the Chinese with Chinese nationals residing there and opening all sorts of businesses and even much of Vientiane already has Chinese language signs (most of which have very little if any Lao or English accompanying them) and the trend is accelerating. Chinese plated cars are now a ubiquitous sign in Vientiane, a city located on the border with Thailand which, despite being located almost 700km from the nearest Chinese border crossing sees almost as many Chinese plated cars driving around as Thai plated cars? In Luang Prabang I took my laundry to be washed at a Chinese run laundry with a recent immigrant from eastern China I could speak Chinese with (indeed she could barely speak Lao). The previous day another Chinese lady (both were middle aged) was grilling kebabs on the street during the Lao Pii Mai festivities. There is also a plan to import a million Chinese citizens to "populate" northern Laos and therefore this extraterritoriality could mean the loss of Laos as we know it in time and the local Lao seem oblivious to what's going on.

For some reason I don't think the Thais are going to allow such a subtle takeover of their country to happen so easily. Besides, despite the warming ties between Thailand and China, Thailand continues to leverage it's interests by trying to maintain good relationships with different countries and not putting everything in one basket. Laos on the other hand seems to be cosying up to China in favour of all other countries, including traditional friends like Vietnam.

[Johpa]

For some reason I don't think the Thais are going to allow such a subtle takeover of their country to happen so easily.

One can argue that Thailand long ago allowed a much more subtle takeover to take place with relative ease.

Chaiyo!

[Katipo]

I've been to Myanmar 4 times in the last few years and I have never come across anyone there who likes China. In fact, I would go so far to saw that those I have spoken to (admittedly less than 10) have a surprisingly strong dislike for the place. Basically they see China as raping them of their valuable natural resources in exchange for shitty consumer goods.

I can only second that and I am in Myanmar frequently too. They will tell you that even you do not actually ask them about their opinion on China (and I am not interested in any discussions about "race" or "religion" anyway).

but chances are, such sentiment will grow in Thailand too....

and usually, things happen for a reason....

Exactly.... I didn't write that, but yes, most times I have been given that opinion without asking.

[Tomtomtom69]

For some reason I don't think the Thais are going to allow such a subtle takeover of their country to happen so easily.

One can argue that Thailand long ago allowed a much more subtle takeover to take place with relative ease.

Chaiyo!

Nah...Chinese Thais have generally intermarried with other Thais and now consider themselves to be fully Thai. Few Thais speak Chinese and few are interested in learning it, EXCEPT the Thais who really want to do business with China, want to teach Chinese out of personal interest or other similar reasons. Many of these Thais however have little or no Chinese blood though. One or two Chinese characters on a 100-year old shop house is hardly indicative of a "subtle" Chinese takeover. Also, in more recent decades Chinese immigration to Thailand has largely been stopped. Ethnic Chinese settled many parts of South-East Asia hundreds of years ago just like Brits settled new world countries like present day USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. That's like saying that all white Americans of European origin should always consider themselves to be British, even if their ancestors weren't even British. Similarly, British immigration to the USA in large numbers has basically stopped.

I should have been more direct and said - what is happening in Laos is hardly subtle. You have Chinese coming in opening businesses, putting up signs in Chinese, not employing Lao except for the most menial tasks and not ever bothering to learn the language, not that it would be necessary anyway since everyone else around them speaks Chinese. Hardly the same thing is happening in Thailand and I highly doubt the Thais would be OK if it did. As most people who live in Thailand know, the Thais generally dislike and distrust anyone non-Thai and that most definitely includes the Chinese.