How Will "tourist Arrivals" Statistics Be Affected?

[wpcoe]

I understand that TAT monitors and posts statistics on the number of foreign tourists arriving into Thailand. I believe they also set goals for each years' statistics?

Have the visa-runners who are getting new entry stamps when they do a same-day border crossing been counted in these arrivals statistics as a new arrival each time they re-enter Thailand?

If so, I wonder how those statistics will be affected if people either (a) abandon Thailand, or (b ) (more likely?) get longer-term Tourist Visas with an extension, or Retirement Visas, etc?

Conceivably, each person getting a 60-day tourist visa, with an extension, would now count as one tourist arrival vs three if they do visa runs. Somebody who gets a Retirement Visa, will count as one, versus 12, etc.

Or, am I all wet? (Yet again!?!)

[solent01]

Interesting, I'm guessing every entry has been counted, Visa runners and new arrivals

[fxm88]

Have the visa-runners who are getting new entry stamps when they do a same-day border crossing been counted in these arrivals statistics as a new arrival each time they re-enter Thailand?

They try to keep track of all those details, but it suppose what we hear depends on how they want to spin the numbers e.g.

"TAT provides first quarter arrivals data", TTR Weekly, May 23, 2006:

"Tourism Authority of Thailand reported 2,564,229 tourist arrivals at Bangkok’s airport, January to March this year. The figures show a 29.40% increase against 1,981,656 tourist arrivals recorded at the same entry point last year.

...

TAT has still to deliver the complete tourist arrivals data for 2005 from all points of entry. It has presented figured for arrivals through Bangkok airport, while it estimated the overall arrivals stood at 12 million for 2005"

[wondering]

People are getting tired of the bullshit, like, a small group of paper pushers trying to run everyones life.

Time to get them off our backs.

We don´t need them. They need us.

They are but vampires sucking our blood for survival.

Without us they are nothing.

If there´s nobody to boss around..what are they going to do all day?

They have no power except what WE give them with our acquiencense.

Just for a change and to amuse ourselves, why don´t we call a worldwide boycott of anything Thai?

Don´t buy Thai products

Don´t go to Thai restaurants,

Don´t spend a dime on anything Thai.

Don´t visit Thailand ever again.

If you live here, move to a more welcoming place

Don´t invest any money in this unwelcoming country.

Sell your properties, close your businesses. Fire all employees.

Do not teach anyone English here. They neither appreciate nor deserve it.

Teach the Koreans, Taiwanese, Chinese etc instead

Thailand is OUT

[cclub75]

TAT counts "arrivals".

http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_index.php

Yes, without visa runners, we can expect a decrease in the total. A temporary decrease.

Because do not forget a point : europe is only 30 %. Asia 50 or more.

That's the trend : more and more asian tourists.

And you know what is the average lenght of stay ? 8 days...

Numbers... to put the issue in perspective.

I understand that TAT monitors and posts statistics on the number of foreign tourists arriving into Thailand. I believe they also set goals for each years' statistics?

Have the visa-runners who are getting new entry stamps when they do a same-day border crossing been counted in these arrivals statistics as a new arrival each time they re-enter Thailand?

If so, I wonder how those statistics will be affected if people either (a) abandon Thailand, or (b ) (more likely?) get longer-term Tourist Visas with an extension, or Retirement Visas, etc?

Conceivably, each person getting a 60-day tourist visa, with an extension, would now count as one tourist arrival vs three if they do visa runs. Somebody who gets a Retirement Visa, will count as one, versus 12, etc.

Or, am I all wet? (Yet again!?!)

[Soju]

If you're counting the international arrivals at airports, and counting tourists based on what they check on the arrival card, then I don't see that the numbers will be affected by that much, being currently most of the visa runners are doing land crossings. But whatever method you use to try to count actual tourists it's got to be filled with inaccuracies.

[ovenman]

I've always been under the (perhaps mistaken) impression that the TAT puu-yai count every arrival in Thailand, irregardless of visa class or lack thereof, independent of whether the arrival is by air, land, or by sea, in an attempt to inflate the tourist arrivals number as much as they possibly can. Common sense tells one that this number is apt to drop by some amount, but by what that amount would be is truly anybody's guess.

For example, a current thirty-day visa runner would count as potentially 12 entries into Thailand in a single year (i.e. 12 tourist arrivals). If that same person opted to use tourist visas in the future and extended each sixty-day entry by tourist visa at immigrations for another thirty days, this person would then represent 4 tourist arrivals annually. So there's a drop of eight tourist arrivals from just a single "tourist".

[britmaveric]

Doubt they will ever show any significant drop, face saving you know.

[astral]

Remember there are Lies, Damned Lies and (arrival) Statistics.

[Gary A]

I can't see this having any affect on average tourists at all. Nothing has changed for them and most only stay two or three weeks anyways. If they are going to count stamps I DO see that some businessmen are going to be VERY upset. I don't think there are very many golfers who make the trip more than three or four times a year.

[Colonel_Mustard]

I don't think there are very many golfers who make the trip more than three or four times a year.

There are lots of them from other Asian countries. In Phuket we have many golfers coming at least once a month, especially from Hong Kong and Singapore. Not huge numbers but quite a lot.

[jdinasia]

well if the 'average' tourist comes once a year and gets one stamp .....

and the visarunners get 12 a year .........

could be quite a hit on the #'s

[opebo]

well if the 'average' tourist comes once a year and gets one stamp .....

and the visarunners get 12 a year .........

could be quite a hit on the #'s

It is reasonable to assume that the Thai government will make the arrival figures say whatever it wants them to say, but as far as the 'real' difference:

Say 50,000 visa runners (a very conservative estimate), times 12 runs per year = 600,000 tourist arrivals.

[Colonel_Mustard]

well if the 'average' tourist comes once a year and gets one stamp .....

and the visarunners get 12 a year .........

could be quite a hit on the #'s

It is reasonable to assume that the Thai government will make the arrival figures say whatever it wants them to say, but as far as the 'real' difference:

Say 50,000 visa runners (a very conservative estimate), times 12 runs per year = 600,000 tourist arrivals.

Or 600,000 non-tourist arrivals.

[britmaveric]

I think the TAT claims unique tourist arrivals when they report their stats, but somehow I don't believe them.

[cclub75]

Remember there are Lies, Damned Lies and (arrival) Statistics.

Well may be. But sometimes you can find some truth...

For instance :

http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_download.php?Rpt=nmt

You can download an Excell file, per year, with total arrivals, country of origin, and mode of transport (air, land, sea). Very interesting.

You can see that for european countries, when Germany has 5 % of entries by land, France and UK counts 10 %.

Visa runners !

[drummer]

hmmm... that at least is some hard data.... we can presume that the number of visa runners accout for 5-10% of the farang tourists... I know a lot of Japanese that are very concerned about the new regs too.

Lets see...

Given the first quarter as 2.5 million, and farang are 1/3 of total tourists... Thats about 850,000 farang entires,,, and each count for 3 visas... so thats a STAGGERING 250,000.... much higher than anyone has quoted. And really higher than that because there are a lot of Asia visa runners (Japanese, Philipino, etc) ... this would be 9,000 going to the borders per day. Is this feasible? seems like a lot, but then there are a lot of borders... Poi Pet, Mae Sot, Ranong, Had Yai, etc etc... I've only been to a few border posts, but there were always lines and multiple visa run companies operating at each border post. It might be feasible.

Of course, this is assuming that all land farang entries are visa runners... of course, most are - I did my very first visa run when I went to see Ankhor Wat. and about half of the people on the busses to Ankhor Wat come right back....

Some of the air traffic is effectively a visa run, although mot of them get a real tourist visa... it doesn't change what they are, though. What column shoulfd they be counted in? Is it permanent residents without long term visas or is it VOAers only?

Anyone have any more adjustments to my math?

Edited September 16, 2006 by drummer

[IMA_FARANG]

hmmm... that at least is some hard data.... we can presume that the number of visa runners accout for 5-10% of the farang tourists... I know a lot of Japanese that are very concerned about the new regs too.

Lets see...

Given the first quarter as 2.5 million, and farang are 1/3 of total tourists... Thats about 850,000 farang entires,,, and each count for 3 visas... so thats a STAGGERING 250,000.... much higher than anyone has quoted. And really higher than that because there are a lot of Asia visa runners (Japanese, Philipino, etc) ... this would be 9,000 going to the borders per day. Is this feasible? seems like a lot, but then there are a lot of borders... Poi Pet, Mae Sot, Ranong, Had Yai, etc etc... I've only been to a few border posts, but there were always lines and multiple visa run companies operating at each border post. It might be feasible.

Of course, this is assuming that all land farang entries are visa runners... of course, most are - I did my very first visa run when I went to see Ankhor Wat. and about half of the people on the busses to Ankhor Wat come right back....

Some of the air traffic is effectively a visa run, although mot of them get a real tourist visa... it doesn't change what they are, though. What column shoulfd they be counted in? Is it permanent residents without long term visas or is it VOAers only?

Anyone have any more adjustments to my math?

I have been out of the "visa run" thing for quite a few years now. But 20 years ago I did a number of runs. I think you guys are making far too much of this, it was always possible to go to the immigration at Soi San Pluu in Bangkok and apply for an "extension" of stay with nothing but a stamp on arrival. I never once actually recieved a "visa" from any one of those requests for a stay. All I ever got was the stamp, "Request for extension is under consideration. Applicant is to return in two weeks." All I ever did was to return in two weeks, pay the fee, and get another "Request is under consideration" stamp. Bet it still works for 30 day extensions. The only difference is the price.

The more things change, the more it stays the same.

Edited September 16, 2006 by IMA_FARANG