Chinese Stock Market Collapse = Fewer Chinese Tourists in Chiang Mai?

[mesquite]

The Chinese stock market is tanking. Will this mean fewer Chinese tourists in Chiang Mai? I would think there would be a trickle down effect where the potential tourists end up with little money.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/11725236/The-really-worrying-financial-crisis-is-happening-in-China-not-Greece.html

Edited July 8, 2015 by mesquite

[Mapguy]

Fair surmise!

[peterjackson]

Having observed the social phenomenon around the Chinese who get into the market, I would say that it's more likely to affect the Chinese tourist traveling to Europe or the USA and not the kind of 'zero profit' Chinese Tours that come to Thailand.

The market is still presently at a substantial gain over where it was last year, even after taking into account the present 'collapse'.

[TheAppletons]

Having observed the social phenomenon around the Chinese who get into the market, I would say that it's more likely to affect the Chinese tourist traveling to Europe or the USA and not the kind of 'zero profit' Chinese Tours that come to Thailand.

The market is still presently at a substantial gain over where it was last year, even after taking into account the present 'collapse'.

That it is....and the current momentum is moving quickly south. Minus 30% in the last month....and a LOT of capital has been frozen by measures taken to try to stop the current downward spiral. Market psychology is an interesting phenomenon.

[Asiantravel]

Having observed the social phenomenon around the Chinese who get into the market, I would say that it's more likely to affect the Chinese tourist traveling to Europe or the USA and not the kind of 'zero profit' Chinese Tours that come to Thailand.

The market is still presently at a substantial gain over where it was last year, even after taking into account the present 'collapse'.

Both John Suddworth and Linda Yueh on BBC World tonight explained the situation and both would not agree with your viewpoint. They interviewed a tailor who has lost just $2000 but to him it was a big thing.

Edited July 8, 2015 by Asiantravel

[CNXBKKMAN]

As it is at the moment i dont think it will have any significant effect. That tailor might not be coming but there are millions and millions of others who can take his place. CM only has about 10 flights a day to China including Hong Kong and are all on smallish aircraft. Those who cancel their expensive european capitals tour may downgrade to a cheaper Thailand tour. SARS, MERS and Ebola are the type of thing that wipe the tourist numbers out.

[dave2]

re

Will there be fewer Chinese tourists in Chiang Mai if/when their stock market collapses?

i hope not .... some of them are lovely

dave2

[konying]

$3.2 TRILLION wiped out in past few weeks.

Strangely enough news have been very slow, Thailand has not mentioned it at all.

If losses continue , tourist losses would be minimal to what's to come.

Some countries like Australia would see huge recession and job losses.

I have a feeling Thai economy would not be able to say " we are not affected "

[heybruce]

Bloomberg is blaming China for the latest drop in the baht. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-08/thailand-s-baht-sinks-to-six-year-low-on-outflows-china-concern?cmpid=yhoo

I don't know if this will lead to a big drop in Chinese tourists, but I don't see how it could lead to an increase. If a weaker baht led to an increase in big spending western tourists that would make a lot of local businesses happy.

[konying]

Bloomberg is blaming China for the latest drop in the baht. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-08/thailand-s-baht-sinks-to-six-year-low-on-outflows-china-concern?cmpid=yhoo

I don't know if this will lead to a big drop in Chinese tourists, but I don't see how it could lead to an increase. If a weaker baht led to an increase in big spending western tourists that would make a lot of local businesses happy.

I do not think low end bus tourists hold many shares, but most certainly would affect " quality Chinese " spending tourists.

[elgordo38]

Having observed the social phenomenon around the Chinese who get into the market, I would say that it's more likely to affect the Chinese tourist traveling to Europe or the USA and not the kind of 'zero profit' Chinese Tours that come to Thailand.

The market is still presently at a substantial gain over where it was last year, even after taking into account the present 'collapse'.

Both John Suddworth and Linda Yueh on BBC World tonight explained the situation and both would not agree with your viewpoint. They interviewed a tailor who has lost just $2000 but to him it was a big thing.

There was another lady who had a small store that looked rather dilapitated and she lost her total life savings of $16,000. The government has talked one and all to jump into the market to boost the economy. The sad part is the little/poor guy has jumped in just recently going all in as they say in polker while the rich guy who drove the market to new heights was bailing out at the top. Its a mugs game no matter where you live. You know what H.C. Fields said years ago. Pretty soon the Western big boys will pull the plug to and all that scared European money that flooded in at the last moment will go down the drain. At this point leave your money in Greece. America is no bargain even with the high dollar. It will come under attack this year too. Every country will get a kick at the stock market doldrums this year or early next. They call what is happening now a black swan event.

[NeverSure]

Of course there will be fewer tourists. The Chinese in general have had access to buying stocks for the first time in their lives and it's the national sport. The PE of many of these stocks has been 100 due to their lack of understanding of weighing fundamentals. Many Westerners are overextended in China due to a blind belief that China has no ceiling.

A crash is a great way to make money if one can avoid the temptation of ignoring fundamentals. The Eurozone and China don't have the fundamentals right now.Their underpinnings of their economies and their abilities to create new wealth don't support optimism. They are both houses of cards.

I made more money in 2008 after the US market plunged 46% than at any time prior. I looked at really good companies like Walmart which was doing even more business than before the crash and saw the stock as being on sale for 1/2 price. People who never shopped at Walmart before started going there to streamline their budgets.

I'm 100% clear of emerging markets including the EU and China, and what I do own is 100% in the USA in companies that can supply needed goods and services to the masses in a downturn. I bought stock this morning. I also bought some US Treasuries. I have about 25% of my money in the market so that the market per se can't break me.

By now I'm sure that by now everyone knows that the Euro already crashed once in Dec. 2011 and the US Fed bailed it out overnight with a $USD 2 trillion loan. Wall Street Journal Its shakiness can be compared only to China ATM.

When someone loses, someone else usually gains, even if it takes ten years to see it.

Cheers

Edited July 8, 2015 by NeverSure

[Saan]

If a weaker baht led to an increase in big spending western tourists that would make a lot of local businesses happy.

And this falang who is weeping over his pocketful of soon to be worthless Australian dollars

[jonwilly]

Fewer Chinese Tourists.

Yes Please, even the Thai's hate them.

john

Linda Yueh ! quite fancy the young lady.

Actually Dr.Linda Yueh.

[SGX]

chinese collapse in stock market has no effect on tourism. if anything it will promote tourism through sales etc,

stop believing US owned media..

[mesquite]

chinese collapse in stock market has no effect on tourism. if anything it will promote tourism through sales etc,

stop believing US owned media..

What US owned media has said the falling stock market will impact tourism? Please post a link.

[dotpoom]

Crashed in USA due to "technicalities"....one airline co. too.

Edited July 9, 2015 by dotpoom

[Kees5555]

Having observed the social phenomenon around the Chinese who get into the market, I would say that it's more likely to affect the Chinese tourist traveling to Europe or the USA and not the kind of 'zero profit' Chinese Tours that come to Thailand.

The market is still presently at a substantial gain over where it was last year, even after taking into account the present 'collapse'.

Both John Suddworth and Linda Yueh on BBC World tonight explained the situation and both would not agree with your viewpoint. They interviewed a tailor who has lost just $2000 but to him it was a big thing.

The stockmarket is still higher than end of last December, BUT so many people started trading this year, in May alone 14 million :

Retail punters account for 80-90 per cent of trading in the Chinese equity markets. Many of them are new to investing — in May alone more than 14 million trading accounts were opened. That means millions of people trading stocks have little or no direct memory of the 2007-8 stock market bubble and crash.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102807791

Edited July 9, 2015 by Kees5555

[konying]

chinese collapse in stock market has no effect on tourism. if anything it will promote tourism through sales etc,

stop believing US owned media..

You right , when people lose all their money invested and lose their job or about to, they go on a holiday to Thailand .

You be perfect at TAT, fit right in.

[quandow]

From a Google search of "China ghost cities"

http://www.news.com.au/travel/world-travel/ghost-cities-the-bustling-places-with-no-people/story-e6frfqai-1227272380295

A housing bubble much larger than what happened in the U.S. is looming on the horizon.

[elektrified]

chinese collapse in stock market has no effect on tourism. if anything it will promote tourism through sales etc,

stop believing US owned media..

What a load of B.S.!

[SGX]

Of course there will be fewer tourists. The Chinese in general have had access to buying stocks for the first time in their lives and it's the national sport. The PE of many of these stocks has been 100 due to their lack of understanding of weighing fundamentals. Many Westerners are overextended in China due to a blind belief that China has no ceiling.

A crash is a great way to make money if one can avoid the temptation of ignoring fundamentals. The Eurozone and China don't have the fundamentals right now.Their underpinnings of their economies and their abilities to create new wealth don't support optimism. They are both houses of cards.

I made more money in 2008 after the US market plunged 46% than at any time prior. I looked at really good companies like Walmart which was doing even more business than before the crash and saw the stock as being on sale for 1/2 price. People who never shopped at Walmart before started going there to streamline their budgets.

I'm 100% clear of emerging markets including the EU and China, and what I do own is 100% in the USA in companies that can supply needed goods and services to the masses in a downturn. I bought stock this morning. I also bought some US Treasuries. I have about 25% of my money in the market so that the market per se can't break me.

By now I'm sure that by now everyone knows that the Euro already crashed once in Dec. 2011 and the US Fed bailed it out overnight with a $USD 2 trillion loan. Wall Street Journal Its shakiness can be compared only to China ATM.

When someone loses, someone else usually gains, even if it takes ten years to see it.

Cheers

Pull your head in , chinese have been buying stocks long before you where born.. Your comments are very vague and annoying, yes many stocks are over PE 100. it doesnt mean they dont know what they doing , Its the exact opposite, The owners generally the major shareholders have had no restriction in pushing up share values. They where doing this to raise capital on Leveraged notes generally raising Billions of Yuan from the public and corporates whilst earning higher yields. You neglect to comment most of the stocks where pre owned by government 51% .

Chinese free market came into play in the 1990 s the chinese stock market has been the last to lift off . not many westerners are trading the chinese market , its to some extent mostly western funds trading short side or selling longs . chinese market traders have never been able to sell the stock the same day they buy it , so trading intraday short side is new concept to most except farang traders. provided you can access the market. agree the crunch in PE is over due and happened as it should , chinese govt have neglected to factor in the High PE as the the chinese corporate governance is relatively inexperienced and primarily employed by who they know not what they know. This will soon change .

Chinese regs will soon follow that of HK in part it already does . HKSI regs are copied from Australia , USA England .

Most chinese broking remisers are not allowed to trade their own , they are employed to take orders from clients only working for a small wage. Its the principal that trades his own book .

Chinese wealth is mostly created through property and the free market operating within not the stock market . The government has made a priority to switch things around, hence the cooling of the property ,re weighting of Gold bullion buying Storing , Bond trading o/s FX swaps , now the stock market.

You further forget to acknowledge the synthetic short gold position that America holds that cannot be settled if called. Both China and Russia hold a great deal of the world Gold Reserves yes Germany has stated its gold position but the physical has been held in USA and the USA cannot deliver . i believe the USA have sold this Bullion to the Chinese (truth will come out when exercised) . therefore the world will again turn to china for help. You can confirm this when looking at the amount of short synthetic open positions yourself.

its good you made money in the crash , not good you boast about it .

American wealth is through the stock market rigging with a small percentage at the top compared to general population , if you truly want to compare , The chinese have more millionaires than america ever will.

Chinese free market is bigger then american and the rest of the world just by population , only its operated within mainland so we westerners cannot fully appreciate this. Yes USA is biggest stock market at the moment but this will soon change, You will also find that US companies are domiciled in Tax havens where as Chinese companies are mostly domiciled within mainland.

You forgot about the US Bond crash , its artificially held up by a new player being Belgium , well guess what Belgium doesnt have that kind of cash so who do you think is holding up the US bond market as we speak. Good luck with raising Interest Rates over there.

Euro crash you will find that the US short sold this as with the Asian currency crash, then they bought back to cover. nothing new here. Euro was overvalued at that time from memory.

Chaos theory out of Chaos you have order , this will soon be chinese stock market

cheers

[1FinickyOne]

I think it might make just a fewer of them quieter, less cocky and that might be nice...

[Berkshire]

Having observed the social phenomenon around the Chinese who get into the market, I would say that it's more likely to affect the Chinese tourist traveling to Europe or the USA and not the kind of 'zero profit' Chinese Tours that come to Thailand.

The market is still presently at a substantial gain over where it was last year, even after taking into account the present 'collapse'.

Good point. One can say that with less disposable income, many Chinese will decide to forgo those expensive trips to Europe and the US. Instead, many will decide to take their vacations in less expensive locals regionally, which may actually boost tourist numbers in SE Asian countries. My guess is that Thailand may see some decline, but not as much as many western countries. A decline in Chiang Mai would be a good thing. We've been inundated lately.

[CNXBKKMAN]

The chinese like to travel now that they are allowed to. There are a lot of them with the money to travel. If things go down the pan and belts need to be tightened those who want to travel will downgrade, look for value. What destination will be attractive? Not to far from China so the airfare is reasonable, has the low cost airlines on the routes, has the tourist infastructure. Hotels everywhere for every budget, lots of them, low prices, lots of food and fruits to try at low prices if you choose, hot weather. Thailand shouldnt be affected too much.

[Rancid]

So the Chinese stock market has been acting as a ponzi scheme sucking in investors looking for a decent return.

Kind of sounds like a few Western countries that come to mind, politicians acting to script or can kicking so it all goes bad on someone else's watch.

When this false economic paradigm finally collapses suspect it will get real ugly. We should have just taken the pain on the last collapse instead of bailing out billionaire bankers.

Thailand may well be short of a lot of tourists...

[gforsi]

economics:

financial markets are fast markets, they are typically 2-3 years ahead of goods, service or commerce or other slow markets.

Thus, the "stock market crash" in china is supposed to have very little influence on the tourism industry for now.

[mikiea]

roof jumpers will soon be in the local Chinese news. when the correction is complete the money calls will start and the jumpers will make their way too the roof .

[ttthailand]

This is a major event and will surely start a chain reaction in other sectors that have already been feeling some pain, housing, luxury goods, tourism, jobs....

Thailand will take a hit but I don't think it will be felt for another two months, just in time for high season. Many of the Chinese buy the package tours months in advance.

I just hope that if things get really bad in China that they don't start escalating the trouble in the South China Sea to bring the country together. I think shaky times ahead...

[Ozziepat]

Funny that anyone would believe anything in China functions outside control or influence of the ruling communist elites. If they aren't manipulating it, that's only because they haven't bothered yet. Unfettered freedoms threaten a totalitarian state, so they will not be allowed in markets or anywhere else. The sorry substitute is cheap government rhetoric to the contrary, a popular tactic in many locales..