Is now a good time to change Baht to U.S. Dollars?

[CHbsa]

I know the Baht is at a six year low now. How does this impact the exchange rate. Should I hold on to my Baht a bit longer, or should I change to U.S. dollars now?

[topt]

It means that you get less $US for your baht then when there were less baht to the $US

Whether you should change now depends on whether you need to and which direction you believe the rates will move from now on.........

[swampdonkey]

It is a good time to change US dollars to Thai Baht

[inzman]

Should be over 34/1 by year end

[cmth]

Should be over 34/1 by year end

Almost there now. 33.93/1

[Hornyskunk]

Yes, now is a very good time to exchange USD for THB. I have exchanged the maximum I am allowed per month both this month and the last two months.

I am an economist. If you really want the whole technical explanation you can pm me, but you can also just look at FRED graphs and the dollar index over time. Hint: economic cycle theorists are often correct.

[Naam]

Yes, now is a very good time to exchange USD for THB. I have exchanged the maximum I am allowed per month both this month and the last two months.

I am an economist. If you really want the whole technical explanation you can pm me, but you can also just look at FRED graphs and the dollar index over time. Hint: economic cycle theorists are often correct.

Honourable Sir Economist, Esq,;

please refrain from publishing fairy tales. hint: there is no such thing like an allowed maximum amount to exchange whether it's Baht to Forex or Forex to Baht.

moreover, the OP asked "THB to USD" and not "USD to THB".

Edited July 12, 2015 by Naam

[Hornyskunk]

Sorry. It is currently a very bad time to exchange baht for USD.

If you live in the US, federal law dictates a maximum of 6 ach transfers from a savings account per billing cycle. This can limit your ability to exchange dollars for baht quickly if using ach transfers.

[SpokaneAl]

With the baht having dropped in value compared to the U.S. Dollar, it would seem to be the exact wrong time to be selling baht for dollars. Of course, who knows what the future will bring. If the baht continues to decline, you may later look back in time a bit wistfully. My analysis when buying anything is to determine if I am happy and comfortable with today's price. If the answer is yes I buy.

Edited July 12, 2015 by SpokaneAl

[Pinot]

Yes, now is a very good time to exchange USD for THB. I have exchanged the maximum I am allowed per month both this month and the last two months.

I am an economist. If you really want the whole technical explanation you can pm me, but you can also just look at FRED graphs and the dollar index over time. Hint: economic cycle theorists are often correct.

Honourable Sir Economist, Esq,;

please refrain from publishing fairy tales. hint: there is no such thing like an allowed maximum amount to exchange whether it's Baht to Forex or Forex to Baht.

moreover, the OP asked "THB to USD" and not "USD to THB".

My sentiments exactly. One thing economists are good for...uh sorry I forget. Economics is not and never can be a science. It's a course in college. In the real world they serve little purpose. The above economist is consistently losing money every month changing USD to Baht. Why would you do that? To make a killing when the big turnaround comes? No one thinks that's about to happen except apparently the above economist.

Leave the speculation about where the exchange rate is going to the forex traders.

[Naam]

Sorry. It is currently a very bad time to exchange baht for USD.

If you live in the US, federal law dictates a maximum of 6 ach transfers from a savings account per billing cycle. This can limit your ability to exchange dollars for baht quickly if using ach transfers.

i am not familiar with "ACH" transfers and savings accounts but after selling a total of three homes in the U.S. i wire transferred the relevant amounts to Europe without any problems.

[morrobay]

Yes the new head of the Bank of Thailand is an ex big wig at Stock Exchange of Thailand. So he is likely to promote a weaker baht to faver the SET.

Then we have the gathering perfect storm :

Exports in decline, skyrocketing household debt, fishing industry in trouble with new regulations, the lack of rain for the farmers,

Greek ,Euro and China troubles that will impact exports and tourism. Look for the baht to be at its value based on fundamentals at about 38/$ in less than a year

Edited July 13, 2015 by morrobay

[TheAppletons]

Sorry. It is currently a very bad time to exchange baht for USD.

If you live in the US, federal law dictates a maximum of 6 ach transfers from a savings account per billing cycle. This can limit your ability to exchange dollars for baht quickly if using ach transfers.

i am not familiar with "ACH" transfers and savings accounts but after selling a total of three homes in the U.S. i wire transferred the relevant amounts to Europe without any problems.

ACH is an acronym of sorts for Automated Clearing House. To oversimplify, it's the financial settlement system for transferring money in the U.S. banking system. U.S. federal law limits the number of ACH transactions per month from a US savings account to six but - to my knowledge - there is no limit on amounts.

As you mentioned, you would have no difficulties wire transferring money from the proceeds of a property sale.

Edited July 13, 2015 by TheAppletons

[Hornyskunk]

My sentiments exactly. One thing economists are good for...uh sorry I forget. Economics is not and never can be a science. It's a course in college. In the real world they serve little purpose. The above economist is consistently losing money every month changing USD to Baht. Why would you do that? To make a killing when the big turnaround comes? No one thinks that's about to happen except apparently the above economist.

Leave the speculation about where the exchange rate is going to the forex traders.

I am converting my savings to THB because I don't need USD in Thailand and I need to pay a dowry eventually. Anyway, my salary is paid in USD to my US bank and my "savings" is actually recently sold stock, as I am expecting a Fed rate hike later this year that will force a market correction. I am not a forex trader, but neither am I ignorant of the indicators that forex traders monitor to update their algorithms. It is likely that the USD will gain on the THB in the short-term, especially when (or if) the Fed raises rates, but the dollar is already overvalued compared to other currencies. If you are not in a hurry to trade THB for USD, just wait; your purchasing power will increase.

Nobody forces you to respect or listen to economists just as nobody forces you to respect or listen to doctors. Doctors ensure your health, while economists ensure your wealth. Economics cannot be a natural science because human behaviors cannot be defined in unfalsifiable models.

ACH is an acronym of sorts for Automated Clearing House. To oversimplify, it's the financial settlement system for transferring money in the U.S. banking system. U.S. federal law limits the number of ACH transactions per month from a US savings account to six but - to my knowledge - there is no limit on amounts.

As you mentioned, you would have no difficulties wire transferring money from the proceeds of a property sale.

US domestic ACH transfers to Bangkok Bank are a cost-effective way to exchange USD for THB as the transfer is free (depending on your bank), BKKBK charges very little and the exchange rate is excellent. My two banks both limit ACH transfers to $5000 per day or per transfer. I can increase the limit upon request, of course, but that could raise suspicions within the bank or the IRS when the money is leaving the country, or so I've heard. For me, international wire transfers take too long, are expensive and will need to be reported to the IRS if over $10000. I am not a tax professional, so I don't know what the IRS is up to, but I'm sure they could come up with some reason to tax me.

[Pinot]

My sentiments exactly. One thing economists are good for...uh sorry I forget. Economics is not and never can be a science. It's a course in college. In the real world they serve little purpose. The above economist is consistently losing money every month changing USD to Baht. Why would you do that? To make a killing when the big turnaround comes? No one thinks that's about to happen except apparently the above economist.

Leave the speculation about where the exchange rate is going to the forex traders.

I am converting my savings to THB because I don't need USD in Thailand and I need to pay a dowry eventually. Anyway, my salary is paid in USD to my US bank and my "savings" is actually recently sold stock, as I am expecting a Fed rate hike later this year that will force a market correction. I am not a forex trader, but neither am I ignorant of the indicators that forex traders monitor to update their algorithms. It is likely that the USD will gain on the THB in the short-term, especially when (or if) the Fed raises rates, but the dollar is already overvalued compared to other currencies. If you are not in a hurry to trade THB for USD, just wait; your purchasing power will increase.

Nobody forces you to respect or listen to economists just as nobody forces you to respect or listen to doctors. Doctors ensure your health, while economists ensure your wealth. Economics cannot be a natural science because human behaviors cannot be defined in unfalsifiable models.

ACH is an acronym of sorts for Automated Clearing House. To oversimplify, it's the financial settlement system for transferring money in the U.S. banking system. U.S. federal law limits the number of ACH transactions per month from a US savings account to six but - to my knowledge - there is no limit on amounts.

As you mentioned, you would have no difficulties wire transferring money from the proceeds of a property sale.

US domestic ACH transfers to Bangkok Bank are a cost-effective way to exchange USD for THB as the transfer is free (depending on your bank), BKKBK charges very little and the exchange rate is excellent. My two banks both limit ACH transfers to $5000 per day or per transfer. I can increase the limit upon request, of course, but that could raise suspicions within the bank or the IRS when the money is leaving the country, or so I've heard. For me, international wire transfers take too long, are expensive and will need to be reported to the IRS if over $10000. I am not a tax professional, so I don't know what the IRS is up to, but I'm sure they could come up with some reason to tax me.

I don't see the baht rising and no one else does either. You're better off in USD. Fed rate change has nothing to do with it. If anything we're seeing a flight to the world's currency... the USD. There is absolutely no need to go to baht unless like you say you need money for a big purchase.

The IRS is not concerned with your $10000+ transfers. Why would they care? $10,000 needs to be reported if it's in a foreign bank for the interest it generates. That's income that needs to be reported. That's the only thing they care about. Transfer any amount you want. There is billions of dollars flying all over the world everyday. No one cares about your little transfer.

Sometimes we get one view of things in our heads that is wrong. The IRS just wants you to play by the rules. You can buy anything you want, anywhere in the world. Transfer anything, anywhere. There is no one at the IRS or some bank looking over your shoulder. You're small potatoes. No one cares what you're doing until you make some money (interest from a bank) and then they want their piece of that income.

My advice would be to open a Charles Schwab International account. You can go into any bank with a passport and transfer any amount of money with your ATM card with no charge. $10000 is not a problem. Oh yeah, and keep your money in USDs.

[el jefe]

Sorry. It is currently a very bad time to exchange baht for USD.

If you live in the US, federal law dictates a maximum of 6 ach transfers from a savings account per billing cycle. This can limit your ability to exchange dollars for baht quickly if using ach transfers.

If, as you said, you did 18 ACH transfers over the last 3 months, you didn't get as good an exchange rate on the first 17 transfers as you did today.

You would have been better off waiting and making one big transfer, even if it needs to be a wire transfer with the associated fees.

If you, or the OP, need the money in THB today then you make the transfer today. If you think the USD will continue to rise against the THB you shouldn't be making any transfers no matter the limit.

Me? I'm transferring ......

No one should care what I'm doing any more than any other random poster on Thai Visa.

[RikDao]

Interesting, all these opinions and all this advice. The advice will be either good or bad, depending entirely on the baht vs dollar exchange rate, and what that will be going forward is anyone's guess. But the thing to keep in mind is that just because you think the dollar will keep getting stronger, that doesn't mean it will.

[roblgs]

Incredible that so many replies here provide an answer to the exact opposite of the question asked.

The Baht today is weaker against major foreign currencies than it was 6 months ago... So now is a bad time to change Baht to US$ compared to the situation of six months ago.

The Baht would have to strengthen for it to become a better time to change to US$ than it is now.

However, trends would suggest that of the three possible scenarios, a strengthening Baht over the next 6 months is the least likely to happen, with the most likely being a weakening Baht.

If the Baht does weaken then you would be worse off waiting... unless you wait long enough for the Baht to strengthen again, which might be substantially longer

If the Baht remains static against the US$ then it wouldn't matter whether you change now or in six months time, rates would not shift much

Only if it strengthens would it be beneficial to wait...

... or to step back in time and change it six months ago.

So, it depends. Where do you think the exchange rate will be in six months time, and how urgent/necessary is it for you to change into US$ in the immediate short-term, and are you comfortable with the current exchange rate?

Edited July 14, 2015 by roblgs

[RikDao]

Another important question is how much you're talking about exchanging, that is, how many baht. If it's not much, then it probably won't matter too much when you exchange it, near-term at least.

[SGX]

Depends on the amount you change otherwise its no difference other than mind games.

The Fed is talking about raising rates so if yellen and cohoerts decide to raise the Rate of USD. Then your USD rate will increase therefore your purchasing power will be more Baht. You have no harm in waiting at this point .

[SGX]

changing to US dollars will be cheaper before the rate hike

[RikDao]

They've been talking about raising interest rates for years, literally years. In my book, they won't raise them until they shut up about it.

[TigerandDog]

I agree that this is the wrong time to convert baht to US $. A simple rule to follow if you wish to make a profit. Buy high sell low. e.g. if you buy baht when the rate is 33 baht to the US $ ( US $100) you would receive 3300 baht. If you hold onto that and sell when the rate drops to 30 baht to the US $ you would receive US $110, a profit of US $10.00. So if you want to convert baht back to US $ always sell when the exchange rate is LOWER than when you bought your baht.

[chilli42]

The Dollar is expensive to buy with Baht. Selling Dollars for Baht is the way to go. If you want to hedge your Baht look at alternative secure currencies: Euro, CDN dollar, AUS dollar, Yen, RMB. I am not saying that this is the perfect time to buy these but when low versus historic trend these are reasonably secure.

[SGX]

They've been talking about raising interest rates for years, literally years. In my book, they won't raise them until they shut up about it.

Agree, They literally hold the world hostage and create the false Volatility themselves Look at Australia still trying to lower rates at 74c why they not lower when the AUD in the 90's. They are bunch of clowns.

The thing i like about the chinese government is they do whats needed. In the west the whole system is setup wrong. ahha dont get me started

[RikDao]

Yeah, the Chinese know how to handle the market: threaten to throw the shorts in jail! Hahahahah! That'll do the trick! We need a little more of that on Wall St.

Seriously though, when the Fed says OK, we will absolutely NEVER raise interest rates again, that means they're gonna do it.

[Berkshire]

I'm sure the OP realizes that he's asking a question that no one can answer with certainty. In other words, his guess is as good as anyone here. So if I were to guess (mixed with a dash of wishful thinking), I'd say the dollar will get stronger and the baht weaker. Which means the OP is better off to convert now so he can get more dollars for his baht. And you know what? I will be 100% right....except I don't know what timeframe I'm talking about. So OP, it just depends more on your personal needs (short and long term) rather than trying to predict the future.

[Suradit69]

Sorry. It is currently a very bad time to exchange baht for USD.

If you live in the US, federal law dictates a maximum of 6 ach transfers from a savings account per billing cycle. This can limit your ability to exchange dollars for baht quickly if using ach transfers.

"If you live in the US, federal law dictates a maximum of 6 ach transfers from a savings account per billing cycle."

So obviously you move the money you expect to need over the billing cycle from the savings account into a checking (current) account. There is no limit on clearing house transfers from a checking account. I usually do the transfers from my brokerage money market account to Bangkok Bank in New York. I don't believe there's any limit on that either ... though from a practical point of view (otherwise known as "planning ahead") I would not do that sort of transfer more than once a month and often only once in two or three months.

I realize the term "checking account" is rather outdated. I don't think I've actually written a check/cheque on my checking account in 10 years.

Edited July 14, 2015 by Suradit69

[SGX]

Yeah, the Chinese know how to handle the market: threaten to throw the shorts in jail! Hahahahah! That'll do the trick! We need a little more of that on Wall St.

Seriously though, when the Fed says OK, we will absolutely NEVER raise interest rates again, that means they're gonna do it.

agree, look at this new US Bond Position out of Belgium. Its believed to be the other side of Russian and Chinese selling . So if The US Government put in a support re their own Bond market they will by default crucify their own position if raise rates. Everyone knows if you get a Bond collapse its good night . again the US Fed have put another nail in their own coffin.

[Fullstop]

Whether you should change now depends on whether you need to and which direction you believe the rates will move from now on.........

I believe the OPs question was whether he should change now. You obviously don't know. Why bother answering?