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Is now a good time to change Baht to U.S. Dollars?


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...meanwhile, the baht has continued to slide, slowly (against the USD anyway), while this discussion's been going on.

I'm actually in the opposite position, and am timing my next baht purchase. My bet's on waiting. I'm thinking more aggressive BOT intervention is probably due IOT keep speculators at bay, but the longer term trend will continue.

Yes, we understand that there are two sides to every pancake.

You are simply saying the same thing in a mirror.

The question by this apparent rookie in currency, was .. should I bail out of my Baht now?

The day he wrote that, the answer by experienced folks was "Yes"

You are just saying, "the Baht will weaken further, and I will buy some" (therefore making dollars more expensive to purchase)

Why confuse the issue?

Oh, I forgot,... it is all about you, and not answering his question clearly.

One month view:

post-145190-0-76903400-1437015787_thumb.

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...meanwhile, the baht has continued to slide, slowly (against the USD anyway), while this discussion's been going on.

I'm actually in the opposite position, and am timing my next baht purchase. My bet's on waiting. I'm thinking more aggressive BOT intervention is probably due IOT keep speculators at bay, but the longer term trend will continue.

Yes, we understand that there are two sides to every pancake.

You are simply saying the same thing in a mirror.

The question by this apparent rookie in currency, was .. should I bail out of my Baht now?

The day he wrote that, the answer by experienced folks was "Yes"

You are just saying, "the Baht will weaken further, and I will buy some" (therefore making dollars more expensive to purchase)

Why confuse the issue?

Oh, I forgot,... it is all about you, and not answering his question clearly.

One month view:

Hey, genius, I was just trying to illuminate a little and maybe contribute to his understanding. Stop being such a jerk. I'm watching the exact same thing he is, and am in the same camp with all your "experienced folks" and DO in fact believe the baht will weaken further. HE wants to buy dollars - my suggestion based on the apparent trend is NOT to wait. I want to sell dollars - my inclination based on the same apparent trend is to wait. If YOU happen to find that confusing, maybe it's YOUR understanding that needs work! Grow up and lose the sanctimony.

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...meanwhile, the baht has continued to slide, slowly (against the USD anyway), while this discussion's been going on.

I'm actually in the opposite position, and am timing my next baht purchase. My bet's on waiting. I'm thinking more aggressive BOT intervention is probably due IOT keep speculators at bay, but the longer term trend will continue.

Yes, we understand that there are two sides to every pancake.

You are simply saying the same thing in a mirror.

The question by this apparent rookie in currency, was .. should I bail out of my Baht now?

The day he wrote that, the answer by experienced folks was "Yes"

You are just saying, "the Baht will weaken further, and I will buy some" (therefore making dollars more expensive to purchase)

Why confuse the issue?

Oh, I forgot,... it is all about you, and not answering his question clearly.

One month view:

Hey, genius, I was just trying to illuminate a little and maybe contribute to his understanding. Stop being such a jerk. I'm watching the exact same thing he is, and am in the same camp with all your "experienced folks" and DO in fact believe the baht will weaken further. HE wants to buy dollars - my suggestion based on the apparent trend is NOT to wait. I want to sell dollars - my inclination based on the same apparent trend is to wait. If YOU happen to find that confusing, maybe it's YOUR understanding that needs work! Grow up and lose the sanctimony.

Your method does nothing to "illuminate a little and maybe contribute to his understanding" It is just you thinking out loud, and frankly .. sort of rubbing salt in his wounds to remind him ... Ha ha ha ... I LOVE it when you lose money and i gain .. since .. it is a zero sum game. (Thumbing nose) Sucks to be you!

My point here is not your expertise, or mine.

The person who asked the question, to me .. seems a bit on the rookie side of the fence.

There are ways to answer questions. One is, to answer them in a clear context that is easily understood.

"Hi, it is raining pretty hard and my house is flooding, should I buy a boat now?" "YES, it is going to keep raining"

Or ...................................

Dear Flooding,

When water becomes warm enough, it evaporates as vapor into the air. When a mass of air quickly cools to its saturation point, the water vapor condenses into clusters of tiny water droplets and frozen water crystals. We call these clusters clouds. Over time, the droplets and crystals that make up a cloud can attract more water to themselves. When water droplets grow heavy enough, gravity pulls them down as raindrops. If the air is cold enough, the ice crystals can remain frozen and grow large enough to fall as snow, sleet, freezing rain or hail.

I personally already live on a boat, and also have farms that need water, so like the rain, and hope it continues.

Best Regards, and signed ...

"It is all about me and my world"

You see, many people are confused about currency, since .. depending on where you are standing, one man's "strong" is another man's "weak" You know that.

Why make it MORE confusing for him?

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...meanwhile, the baht has continued to slide, slowly (against the USD anyway), while this discussion's been going on.

I'm actually in the opposite position, and am timing my next baht purchase. My bet's on waiting. I'm thinking more aggressive BOT intervention is probably due IOT keep speculators at bay, but the longer term trend will continue.

Yes, we understand that there are two sides to every pancake.

You are simply saying the same thing in a mirror.

The question by this apparent rookie in currency, was .. should I bail out of my Baht now?

The day he wrote that, the answer by experienced folks was "Yes"

You are just saying, "the Baht will weaken further, and I will buy some" (therefore making dollars more expensive to purchase)

Why confuse the issue?

Oh, I forgot,... it is all about you, and not answering his question clearly.

One month view:

Hey, genius, I was just trying to illuminate a little and maybe contribute to his understanding. Stop being such a jerk. I'm watching the exact same thing he is, and am in the same camp with all your "experienced folks" and DO in fact believe the baht will weaken further. HE wants to buy dollars - my suggestion based on the apparent trend is NOT to wait. I want to sell dollars - my inclination based on the same apparent trend is to wait. If YOU happen to find that confusing, maybe it's YOUR understanding that needs work! Grow up and lose the sanctimony.

Your method does nothing to "illuminate a little and maybe contribute to his understanding" It is just you thinking out loud, and frankly .. sort of rubbing salt in his wounds to remind him ... Ha ha ha ... I LOVE it when you lose money and i gain .. since .. it is a zero sum game. (Thumbing nose) Sucks to be you!

My point here is not your expertise, or mine.

The person who asked the question, to me .. seems a bit on the rookie side of the fence.

There are ways to answer questions. One is, to answer them in a clear context that is easily understood.

"Hi, it is raining pretty hard and my house is flooding, should I buy a boat now?" "YES, it is going to keep raining"

Or ...................................

Dear Flooding,

When water becomes warm enough, it evaporates as vapor into the air. When a mass of air quickly cools to its saturation point, the water vapor condenses into clusters of tiny water droplets and frozen water crystals. We call these clusters clouds. Over time, the droplets and crystals that make up a cloud can attract more water to themselves. When water droplets grow heavy enough, gravity pulls them down as raindrops. If the air is cold enough, the ice crystals can remain frozen and grow large enough to fall as snow, sleet, freezing rain or hail.

I personally already live on a boat, and also have farms that need water, so like the rain, and hope it continues.

Best Regards, and signed ...

"It is all about me and my world"

You see, many people are confused about currency, since .. depending on where you are standing, one man's "strong" is another man's "weak" You know that.

Why make it MORE confusing for him?

You're COMPLETELY misreading what I wrote and why I wrote it. Mired in all that confusion you lamely project on others, I suspect you misread things a lot. Keep up the below average work. Oh, and as for the mind reading - I'd hold onto the day job if I were you...

BZ on word count though. thumbsup.gif

Edited by hawker9000
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Your method does nothing to "illuminate a little and maybe contribute to his understanding" It is just you thinking out loud, and frankly .. sort of rubbing salt in his wounds to remind him ... Ha ha ha ... I LOVE it when you lose money and i gain .. since .. it is a zero sum game. (Thumbing nose) Sucks to be you!


My point here is not your expertise, or mine.

The person who asked the question, to me .. seems a bit on the rookie side of the fence.

There are ways to answer questions. One is, to answer them in a clear context that is easily understood.

"Hi, it is raining pretty hard and my house is flooding, should I buy a boat now?" "YES, it is going to keep raining"

Or ...................................

Dear Flooding,

When water becomes warm enough, it evaporates as vapor into the air. When a mass of air quickly cools to its saturation point, the water vapor condenses into clusters of tiny water droplets and frozen water crystals. We call these clusters clouds. Over time, the droplets and crystals that make up a cloud can attract more water to themselves. When water droplets grow heavy enough, gravity pulls them down as raindrops. If the air is cold enough, the ice crystals can remain frozen and grow large enough to fall as snow, sleet, freezing rain or hail.

I personally already live on a boat, and also have farms that need water, so like the rain, and hope it continues.

Best Regards, and signed ...

"It is all about me and my world"

You see, many people are confused about currency, since .. depending on where you are standing, one man's "strong" is another man's "weak" You know that.

Why make it MORE confusing for him?

You're COMPLETELY misreading what I wrote and why I wrote it. Mired in all that confusion you lamely project on others, I suspect you misread things a lot. Keep up the below average work. Oh, and as for the mind reading - I'd hold onto the day job if I were you...

BZ on word count though. thumbsup.gif

Thank you for your positive feedback.

Guess I am just not as smart as you.

Would write more, but will spend the rest of the afternoon writing apology letters to the clients I for whom managed stock portfolios, real estate portfolios, and provided long term tax solutions. They made money for decade upon decade, and benefited meaningfully from my expertise.

I will also petition my University to take back my Degree in Finance, Magna cum Laude.

Lastly, I will donate the million dollars I made trading stock, bonds and currency to that school, so they can produce students of your amazing caliber.

You Highness, please accept my apology for offending you. I am not worthy.

Goodbye Sweet Prince.

I will miss you.

Edited by Guest
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when it was 30 I said it was going to 36 people here said I was crazy.

Fair enough.

(1) Was it 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? When did you say that?

(2) When will it hit 36? (2015, 2016, 2017...etc When???)

(Because I believe it will be a long hard struggle to 35)

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when it was 30 I said it was going to 36 people here said I was crazy.

Fair enough.

(1) Was it 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? When did you say that?

(2) When will it hit 36? (2015, 2016, 2017...etc When???)

(Because I believe it will be a long hard struggle to 35)

2010-2013 that was when the Fed was doing QE. The dollar got weaker. 2015-?

The Fed will be raising interest rates. Dollar will get stronger. Basic Econ 101.

We're at 34 and change just on talk of Fed tightening. which hasn't even begun yet.

It could hit 36 this year. Depends on how much of an initial surge there is after the first rate hike.

Edited by OnMyWay2
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when it was 30 I said it was going to 36 people here said I was crazy.

Fair enough.

(1) Was it 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? When did you say that?

(2) When will it hit 36? (2015, 2016, 2017...etc When???)

(Because I believe it will be a long hard struggle to 35)

2010-2013 that was when the Fed was doing QE. The dollar got weaker. 2015-?

The Fed will be raising interest rates. Dollar will get stronger. Basic Econ 101.

We're at 34 and change just on talk of Fed tightening. which hasn't even begun yet.

It could hit 36 this year. Depends on how much of an initial surge there is after the first rate hike.

Agree, The USD can easily take out the 2009 high @36.37

Good luck to anyone thinks otherwise.

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when it was 30 I said it was going to 36 people here said I was crazy.

Fair enough.

(1) Was it 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? When did you say that?

(2) When will it hit 36? (2015, 2016, 2017...etc When???)

(Because I believe it will be a long hard struggle to 35)

2010-2013 that was when the Fed was doing QE. The dollar got weaker. 2015-?

The Fed will be raising interest rates. Dollar will get stronger. Basic Econ 101.

We're at 34 and change just on talk of Fed tightening. which hasn't even begun yet.

It could hit 36 this year. Depends on how much of an initial surge there is after the first rate hike.

Just curious, thank you for a great reply. Assuming you bought lots of greenbacks then a few years back at 29?

Do not agree an easing by the Fed back then generated the 30 range .. that was actually a fundamentally strong Baht.

Sort of can't have it both ways, and say "During an easing by the US Fed, and strong internal numbers in Thailand, "I called 36."

Anyway .. filed under "whatever"

I agree that 36 is in our future, but feel we will see a few months of a base formed around 34 (33.50 - 34.50) , then meaningful overhead resistance at 35.

The Fed tightening is already factored into today's price, and again I agree, if they continue to tighten with regularity in the future, then all the pieces are in place.

I have no need to convert my US dollars, and just spend my existing Baht reserves.

But nice to have a box full .. and will certainly begin to ladder into buy opportunity of the weak THB in the future, since the Kingdom is my home.

Have a good weekend.

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when it was 30 I said it was going to 36 people here said I was crazy.

Fair enough.

(1) Was it 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? When did you say that?

(2) When will it hit 36? (2015, 2016, 2017...etc When???)

(Because I believe it will be a long hard struggle to 35)

2010-2013 that was when the Fed was doing QE. The dollar got weaker. 2015-?

The Fed will be raising interest rates. Dollar will get stronger. Basic Econ 101.

We're at 34 and change just on talk of Fed tightening. which hasn't even begun yet.

It could hit 36 this year. Depends on how much of an initial surge there is after the first rate hike.

Just curious, thank you for a great reply. Assuming you bought lots of greenbacks then a few years back at 29?

Do not agree an easing by the Fed back then generated the 30 range .. that was actually a fundamentally strong Baht.

Sort of can't have it both ways, and say "During an easing by the US Fed, and strong internal numbers in Thailand, "I called 36."

Anyway .. filed under "whatever"

I agree that 36 is in our future, but feel we will see a few months of a base formed around 34 (33.50 - 34.50) , then meaningful overhead resistance at 35.

The Fed tightening is already factored into today's price, and again I agree, if they continue to tighten with regularity in the future, then all the pieces are in place.

I have no need to convert my US dollars, and just spend my existing Baht reserves.

But nice to have a box full .. and will certainly begin to ladder into buy opportunity of the weak THB in the future, since the Kingdom is my home.

Have a good weekend.

Yes , My view this run should go through to 34.90s and try test the big Figure 35. Where it should sit for a while testing with out breaking 35.

To break the 35 we should see something from yellen, on IR movement . You will see the run through 35 being 3-4 weeks before the actual announcement if at all , Due to insiders with big pockets cash.

IR movement will only originate to give the Fed bullets incase of further collapse. US Fed holding empty bag tricks now.

I will sell some stock out then switch US into HKD after reporting.

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hmm.. my comment was light hearted, and the meaning behind it was simple and obvious; nobody knows. The markets can't be timed. I shouldn't bother feeding trolls, but maybe somebody would miss this point which is a rather important one. Don't try to beat trillion dollar companies at their own game.

if I knew, I would be margin trading on a FOREX exchange instead of browsing Thai Visa

<deleted>

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Yes , My view this run should go through to 34.90s and try test the big Figure 35. Where it should sit for a while testing with out breaking 35.

To break the 35 we should see something from yellen, on IR movement . You will see the run through 35 being 3-4 weeks before the actual announcement if at all , Due to insiders with big pockets cash.

IR movement will only originate to give the Fed bullets incase of further collapse. US Fed holding empty bag tricks now.

I will sell some stock out then switch US into HKD after reporting.

Well if you are betting on the HKDUSD peg breaking good luck with that. And tra-la to the 'insiders'/'empty bag of tricks' baloney.

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Yes , My view this run should go through to 34.90s and try test the big Figure 35. Where it should sit for a while testing with out breaking 35.

To break the 35 we should see something from yellen, on IR movement . You will see the run through 35 being 3-4 weeks before the actual announcement if at all , Due to insiders with big pockets cash.

IR movement will only originate to give the Fed bullets incase of further collapse. US Fed holding empty bag tricks now.

I will sell some stock out then switch US into HKD after reporting.

Well if you are betting on the HKDUSD peg breaking good luck with that. And tra-la to the 'insiders'/'empty bag of tricks' baloney.

hkd/usd is pegged, doesnt move thats why i like it. no trade their pal just sitting

what goes up must come down

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when it was 30 I said it was going to 36 people here said I was crazy.

Fair enough.

(1) Was it 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? When did you say that?

(2) When will it hit 36? (2015, 2016, 2017...etc When???)

(Because I believe it will be a long hard struggle to 35)

2010-2013 that was when the Fed was doing QE. The dollar got weaker. 2015-?

The Fed will be raising interest rates. Dollar will get stronger. Basic Econ 101.

We're at 34 and change just on talk of Fed tightening. which hasn't even begun yet.

It could hit 36 this year. Depends on how much of an initial surge there is after the first rate hike.

Just curious, thank you for a great reply. Assuming you bought lots of greenbacks then a few years back at 29?

Do not agree an easing by the Fed back then generated the 30 range .. that was actually a fundamentally strong Baht.

Sort of can't have it both ways, and say "During an easing by the US Fed, and strong internal numbers in Thailand, "I called 36."

Anyway .. filed under "whatever"

I agree that 36 is in our future, but feel we will see a few months of a base formed around 34 (33.50 - 34.50) , then meaningful overhead resistance at 35.

The Fed tightening is already factored into today's price, and again I agree, if they continue to tighten with regularity in the future, then all the pieces are in place.

I have no need to convert my US dollars, and just spend my existing Baht reserves.

But nice to have a box full .. and will certainly begin to ladder into buy opportunity of the weak THB in the future, since the Kingdom is my home.

Have a good weekend.

well I don't want to get too overconfident but that's what "should" happen. Dollar will go up but it could be a bumpy ride.

I wouldn't speculate on it going much higher than it is now so I would have no problem converting my dollars to baht.

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I'm bucking the trend... I just converted my dollars to baht... mainly because I'm on vacation, and I distrust anyone who thinks that they no more than what is taught in Econ 101.

One can infer what may happen next based on historical data, but that does not mean squat unless they also have the power to convince numerous sheep that they have a valid economic position. Unfortunately, there are a lot of sheep in the world that cannot think for themselves, and thus must rely on internet forums for guidance.

Exchange rates change daily based on actual facts, and also in no small measure to peoples guess work. It is the latter that concerns me the most.

Edited by Gumballl
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I'm bucking the trend... I just converted my dollars to baht... mainly because I'm on vacation, and I distrust anyone who thinks that they no more than what is taught in Econ 101.

One can infer what may happen next based on historical data, but that does not mean squat unless they also have the power to convince numerous sheep that they have a valid economic position. Unfortunately, there are a lot of sheep in the world that cannot think for themselves, and thus must rely on internet forums for guidance.

Exchange rates change daily based on actual facts, and also in no small measure to peoples guess work. It is the latter that concerns me the most.

 

I mostly agree with this, but the exchange rates are also manipulated by the biggest banks in the world. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/20/us-banks-forex-settlement-idUSKBN0O50CQ20150520

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I'm sure the OP realizes that he's asking a question that no one can answer with certainty. In other words, his guess is as good as anyone here. So if I were to guess (mixed with a dash of wishful thinking), I'd say the dollar will get stronger and the baht weaker. Which means the OP is better off to convert now so he can get more dollars for his baht. And you know what? I will be 100% right....except I don't know what timeframe I'm talking about. So OP, it just depends more on your personal needs (short and long term) rather than trying to predict the future.

The USD is starting to take off now. If you're still there OP, I hope you've already converted.

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Yes , My view this run should go through to 34.90s and try test the big Figure 35. Where it should sit for a while testing with out breaking 35.

To break the 35 we should see something from yellen, on IR movement . You will see the run through 35 being 3-4 weeks before the actual announcement if at all , Due to insiders with big pockets cash.

IR movement will only originate to give the Fed bullets incase of further collapse. US Fed holding empty bag tricks now.

I will sell some stock out then switch US into HKD after reporting.

Well if you are betting on the HKDUSD peg breaking good luck with that. And tra-la to the 'insiders'/'empty bag of tricks' baloney.

hkd/usd is pegged, doesnt move thats why i like it. no trade their pal just sitting

what goes up must come down

HKDTHB flying high, now over 4.40.

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I'm sure the OP realizes that he's asking a question that no one can answer with certainty. In other words, his guess is as good as anyone here. So if I were to guess (mixed with a dash of wishful thinking), I'd say the dollar will get stronger and the baht weaker. Which means the OP is better off to convert now so he can get more dollars for his baht. And you know what? I will be 100% right....except I don't know what timeframe I'm talking about. So OP, it just depends more on your personal needs (short and long term) rather than trying to predict the future.

The USD is starting to take off now. If you're still there OP, I hope you've already converted.

USDTHB now within spitting distance of 35...

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I'm sure the OP realizes that he's asking a question that no one can answer with certainty. In other words, his guess is as good as anyone here. So if I were to guess (mixed with a dash of wishful thinking), I'd say the dollar will get stronger and the baht weaker. Which means the OP is better off to convert now so he can get more dollars for his baht. And you know what? I will be 100% right....except I don't know what timeframe I'm talking about. So OP, it just depends more on your personal needs (short and long term) rather than trying to predict the future.

The USD is starting to take off now. If you're still there OP, I hope you've already converted.

USDTHB now within spitting distance of 35...

From 34 to 35 don't sound like much but in the Forex world it would take a spit so forceful you would probably blow-out your front teeth....or if an old Forex trader your false teeth (upper and lower plates).

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I'm sure the OP realizes that he's asking a question that no one can answer with certainty. In other words, his guess is as good as anyone here. So if I were to guess (mixed with a dash of wishful thinking), I'd say the dollar will get stronger and the baht weaker. Which means the OP is better off to convert now so he can get more dollars for his baht. And you know what? I will be 100% right....except I don't know what timeframe I'm talking about. So OP, it just depends more on your personal needs (short and long term) rather than trying to predict the future.

The USD is starting to take off now. If you're still there OP, I hope you've already converted.

USDTHB now within spitting distance of 35...

From 34 to 35 don't sound like much but in the Forex world it would take a spit so forceful you would probably blow-out your front teeth....or if an old Forex trader your false teeth (upper and lower plates).

Well, more like 34.5 to 35, but your point is well taken.

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..............and now ...here is a big razzzzzz to all those goofyballs that thought the dollar was a bad investment.

got a hefty load of dollars in my savings now...and joyful you non believers were all wrong. In 3 or 4 years, my retirement (in dollars) has not changed...but I now am averaging 18,000 baht more a month (compared to 4 years ago).

That is a whopping 200,000 extra a year.

razzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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I'm bucking the trend... I just converted my dollars to baht... mainly because I'm on vacation, and I distrust anyone who thinks that they no more than what is taught in Econ 101.

One can infer what may happen next based on historical data, but that does not mean squat unless they also have the power to convince numerous sheep that they have a valid economic position. Unfortunately, there are a lot of sheep in the world that cannot think for themselves, and thus must rely on internet forums for guidance.

Exchange rates change daily based on actual facts, and also in no small measure to peoples guess work. It is the latter that concerns me the most.

Maybe Supply and Demand may help you more..

Market needs people that oppose the trend to feed off.

FX is used for many things apart from trading. so to convert everyday is fine we all do it when on holidays..

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..............and now ...here is a big razzzzzz to all those goofyballs that thought the dollar was a bad investment.

got a hefty load of dollars in my savings now...and joyful you non believers were all wrong. In 3 or 4 years, my retirement (in dollars) has not changed...but I now am averaging 18,000 baht more a month (compared to 4 years ago).

That is a whopping 200,000 extra a year.

razzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

well done slippery lobster. Still believe more upside in Dollar

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..............and now ...here is a big razzzzzz to all those goofyballs that thought the dollar was a bad investment.

got a hefty load of dollars in my savings now...and joyful you non believers were all wrong. In 3 or 4 years, my retirement (in dollars) has not changed...but I now am averaging 18,000 baht more a month (compared to 4 years ago).

That is a whopping 200,000 extra a year.

razzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

well done slippery lobster. Still believe more upside in Dollar

Thanks.

Reviewing the performance against the baht for the last 3 years...sure has made me a believer. Of course...this has more to do with being in Thailand (at this profitable time)..than being elsewhere.

I am pretty comfortable keeping my savings in dollars....and just exchanging the same amount, on a periodic schedule. It will average out to my benefit this way....even if the rate should go back down.

A good, solid plan.

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