webfact Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Commerce Min may cut export growth target to 0%BANGKOK, 5 August 2015 (NNT) – The Ministry of Commerce is considering a reduction of the export growth estimate to zero percent for this year due largely to the continued slowdown in the world economy.Commerce Minister Gen Chatchai Sarikalya made known that the ministry’s executives are scheduled to convene tomorrow in order to assess the overall export situation in the country and revise their projection for the annual export growth as seen fit. Initially, he hinted a possibility for the growth estimate to be adjusted down to zero percent or even lower, depending on the reports from commercial attaches. The growth was projected at 2 percent earlier this year.The minister attributed the export decline to the yet-to-recover global economy and the low prices of oil in the global market. Nonetheless, despite the impediment, he noted that Thailand has seen less export contraction than many other countries and has also managed to maintain its market share. As a result of the government’s export stimulus measures, Gen Chatchai said positive changes can be expected in the beginning of next year.As of now, the Cabinet has injected a budget of 6 billion baht through the Interior Ministry into a program designed to spur employment and purchasing power. The program will continue through September and is expected to benefit the Thai economy in general for the remainder of this year.-- NNT 2015-08-05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangkokfrog Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I would have thought that low global oil prices was a positive for Thailand. I would be interested if anyone can tell me how or why it would hurt Thai export growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverSure Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerojero Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 (edited) Thailand is a net importer of oil. Given this the country's exports collectively must be absolutely dismal, that huge oil price reductions the past 12 months can't offset. Edited August 5, 2015 by jerojero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Somtamnication Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 That is pretty close to -0. Any difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoilSpoil Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. The 49% ownership rules have very little influence on foreign investment. This has never prevented companies to invest here in the past. Maybe take off your own tin foil hat this time. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovelomsak Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 I always thought low oil prices were a positive for Thailand because the have to buy so much. Now they say it is a reason their exports are declining. Cannot believe a word these guys say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toknarok Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. The 49% ownership rules have very little influence on foreign investment. This has never prevented companies to invest here in the past. Maybe take off your own tin foil hat this time. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. Nonsense. Restrictions on foreign ownership certainly DO inhibit investment. Lots of evidence to back this up http://www.huffingtonpost.com/efraim-chalamish/ownership-restrictions-pu_b_6854146.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoilSpoil Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. The 49% ownership rules have very little influence on foreign investment. This has never prevented companies to invest here in the past. Maybe take off your own tin foil hat this time. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. Nonsense. Restrictions on foreign ownership certainly DO inhibit investment. Lots of evidence to back this up http://www.huffingtonpost.com/efraim-chalamish/ownership-restrictions-pu_b_6854146.html Can you explain to me why foreign investment and related share of exports where considered a lot better in previous years with the same set of restrictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverSure Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. The 49% ownership rules have very little influence on foreign investment. This has never prevented companies to invest here in the past. Maybe take off your own tin foil hat this time. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. Nonsense. Restrictions on foreign ownership certainly DO inhibit investment. Lots of evidence to back this up http://www.huffingtonpost.com/efraim-chalamish/ownership-restrictions-pu_b_6854146.html Can you explain to me why foreign investment and related share of exports where considered a lot better in previous years with the same set of restrictions? Yes, because only recently have Vietnam and The Philippines been so open for business. They are going to suck the life out of Thailand which has long believed it is the only "Hub." Thainess is getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realenglish1 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Cut it to 0 Percent. More like Recession Negative growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mango66 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 we listen every day, export in most sectors is down for 5%, 10% - even 20% - and in future 100% to EU on fishery, and than this lovely commerce Min is expecting 0% growth !! 555555555555 have he ever heared the word shrinking ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smutcakes Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. The 49% ownership rules have very little influence on foreign investment. This has never prevented companies to invest here in the past. Maybe take off your own tin foil hat this time. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. Of course it influences investment. When any company or even private person is assessing an investment in a foreign country these things are considered. Some companies/people who are perhaps less risk averse, or see the potential benefits of investing outweighing the negative would invest, where as others would feel this is an impediment or a risk to their investment and look elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai at Heart Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. The 49% ownership rules have very little influence on foreign investment. This has never prevented companies to invest here in the past. Maybe take off your own tin foil hat this time. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. Oh, right. FDI is falling, but in your opinion 49% ownership in businesses doesn't effect business investment decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ikke Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. The 49% ownership rules have very little influence on foreign investment. This has never prevented companies to invest here in the past. Maybe take off your own tin foil hat this time. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. Nonsense. Restrictions on foreign ownership certainly DO inhibit investment. Lots of evidence to back this up http://www.huffingtonpost.com/efraim-chalamish/ownership-restrictions-pu_b_6854146.html Can you explain to me why foreign investment and related share of exports where considered a lot better in previous years with the same set of restrictions? You explained it yourself in your first post : Ineffective governance , or can we say its because of the junta..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baerboxer Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. The 49% ownership rules have very little influence on foreign investment. This has never prevented companies to invest here in the past. Maybe take off your own tin foil hat this time. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. The 49% ownership puts many organizations off investing in Thailand with it's bureaucracy, corruption and almost "let's make it as awkward as possible" attitude. Whilst some companies came in the past many didn't. Labor costs, low quality and lack of productivity are part of the equation. Although VW seem o k with it. Maybe that's tied with the seems to be stalling link with German education providers upgrading all the technical colleges and "apprenticeship" on job training? As for ineffective governance - do you seriously think there has been any time when Thailand has had an effective government? Not sure why you make an oblique reference to tin foil hat's in response to NeverSure's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baerboxer Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 You explained it yourself in your first post : Ineffective governance , or can we say its because of the junta..... Yes and the previous regime was so "effective" - the wonderful way they managed the flood and it's consequences, the strength of character shown in persevering with the self financing rice scheme despite warnings from the World Bank, IMF, Bloomberg et al. and apparent total lack of adequate accounting. Successive governments have done little to really address fundamentals. Things go up or down dependent on world demand, cost of labor, productivity, quality and the phenomenon of disruptive innovation. The growth in globalization has presented more opportunities for Thailand, but also more competition. The way various Thai administrations have responded is reflected in the longer term trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLock Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. The 49% ownership rules have very little influence on foreign investment. This has never prevented companies to invest here in the past. Maybe take off your own tin foil hat this time. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. You really just said that? So, investing 100% of the money but having the choice to own 49% or own 100% of that business....which one would you choose? If your answer is that you are happy owning 49% and letting Thai's own the majority 51% of your business despite you funding 100%...then you are not real bright. Of course foreign investment ownership rules influence foreign investors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoilSpoil Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. The 49% ownership rules have very little influence on foreign investment. This has never prevented companies to invest here in the past. Maybe take off your own tin foil hat this time. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. Oh, right. FDI is falling, but in your opinion 49% ownership in businesses doesn't effect business investment decisions. FDI decisions are more influenced by the voting rights of the individual shareholders than the ownership percentage. This is what Prayut's government wanted to change in favor of Thai shareholders until he was forced to abandon that idea (for now) by especially the Japanese companies here. Read more here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141104165746-11220814-thailand-foreign-business-act Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai at Heart Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 (edited) The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. The 49% ownership rules have very little influence on foreign investment. This has never prevented companies to invest here in the past. Maybe take off your own tin foil hat this time. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. Oh, right. FDI is falling, but in your opinion 49% ownership in businesses doesn't effect business investment decisions. FDI decisions are more influenced by the voting rights of the individual shareholders than the ownership percentage. This is what Prayut's government wanted to change in favor of Thai shareholders until he was forced to abandon that idea (for now) by especially the Japanese companies here. Read more here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141104165746-11220814-thailand-foreign-business-act That's as maybe, but there are many restricted business that prohibit entry without a partner. Many companies live under the permanent threat of being accused of having nominees. Many companies don't want to operate under these rules.Fdi has been flat for 5 years now. There is no better way to boost exports than to keep continually attracting fdi. Without it as we see now, exports are running out of steam. Your points about other issues are important too, but for some, foreign ownership rules just put some companies in some markets off completely. Edited August 5, 2015 by Thai at Heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoilSpoil Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. The 49% ownership rules have very little influence on foreign investment. This has never prevented companies to invest here in the past. Maybe take off your own tin foil hat this time. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. You really just said that? So, investing 100% of the money but having the choice to own 49% or own 100% of that business....which one would you choose? If your answer is that you are happy owning 49% and letting Thai's own the majority 51% of your business despite you funding 100%...then you are not real bright. Of course foreign investment ownership rules influence foreign investors. Its about control not ownership percentage in a company. If you can invest a billion dollar in company Thailand, you own 49% of this company and but get 75% voting rights in the Board and you make a killing profit annually, then yes you would invest. The 51% Thai owners are just that and have very little saying about the operations of the company. Profit is the bottom line for any company to move its production abroad and profits and risks are dependent on many different variables. The most important ones are, I repeat, cheap labor and production costs, effective and reliable Governance (from government to Amphur level) and decent personnel. Concerning this, the future for Foreign Investment doesn't look very rosy in Thailand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLock Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. The 49% ownership rules have very little influence on foreign investment. This has never prevented companies to invest here in the past. Maybe take off your own tin foil hat this time. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. You really just said that? So, investing 100% of the money but having the choice to own 49% or own 100% of that business....which one would you choose? If your answer is that you are happy owning 49% and letting Thai's own the majority 51% of your business despite you funding 100%...then you are not real bright. Of course foreign investment ownership rules influence foreign investors. Its about control not ownership percentage in a company. If you can invest a billion dollar in company Thailand, you own 49% of this company and but get 75% voting rights in the Board and you make a killing profit annually, then yes you would invest. The 51% Thai owners are just that and have very little saying about the operations of the company. Profit is the bottom line for any company to move its production abroad and profits and risks are dependent on many different variables. The most important ones are, I repeat, cheap labor and production costs, effective and reliable Governance (from government to Amphur level) and decent personnel. Concerning this, the future for Foreign Investment doesn't look very rosy in Thailand. I agree with your second paragraph. Moving manufacturing to Vietnam 3 years ago was the best thing I ever did. Government support, fantastic workers (who want to work and learn), support from the local community and overall attitude, leaves Thailand a long way behind. Profitability is way up. Investors are very happy. But the changes in ownership tick that last box of confidence. I never liked having Thai majority ownership, regardless how I use preferred shares, blank shares certificates and resignations and all the other necessary things to make sure I have control...so for me, doing it all over again, Thailand would not get a look in. That's how much I value the 100% ownership. Bad experiences with essentially Thai nominees in the early days was not a fun time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elgordo38 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 That is pretty close to -0. Any difference? No wonder I cannot find a fortune teller the Commerce ministry has them all under contract. Guess they are better than economists they can never get anything right. The world is getting so bad you cannot believe anyone anymore. Its really getting weird out there in REAL world. Guess the only real certain thing in life is death and taxes. Thank God the death part cancels the other one out well hold on now maybe the politico's can find a way to get blood out of a corpse. Glad I am being cremated. Ashes tax? Earn tax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down the rabbit hole Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 I would have thought that low global oil prices was a positive for Thailand. I would be interested if anyone can tell me how or why it would hurt Thai export growth. Indeed. I also thought Thailand was a net importer of oil, so falling prices ought to be a benefi. Might be wrong but on the face of it. this just looks like the mantra "Thailand's economy is wretched and its the global slow-down, falling oil prices and filthy foreigners to blame". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down the rabbit hole Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 (edited) The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. The 49% ownership rules have very little influence on foreign investment. This has never prevented companies to invest here in the past. Maybe take off your own tin foil hat this time. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. Thai exports are down due to higher labor costs, lower quality and ineffective governance. Plausible but unlikely imho. Do you have any sources to support the comment? I can see how the governance issue might be right though it's a bit of a generalisation. Do you have any specific .reason for thinking it's governance and not (for example) foreign countries just not wanting to buy as much Thai produce (for whatever reason)? Edited August 5, 2015 by Down the rabbit hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luk AJ Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The global economy, is it? Why has Vietnam had export growth of 10% year to date then? Would it have anything to do with removing the 49% cap that foreigners may own in businesses? Would it have to do with business friendly policies? Link Thainess. 10%, whete did you get this figure from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down the rabbit hole Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 (edited) Moving manufacturing to Vietnam 3 years ago was the best thing I ever did. Government support, fantastic workers (who want to work and learn), support from the local community and overall attitude, leaves Thailand a long way behind. Profitability is way up. Investors are very happy. But the changes in ownership tick that last box of confidence. I never liked having Thai majority ownership, regardless how I use preferred shares, blank shares certificates and resignations and all the other necessary things to make sure I have control...so for me, doing it all over again, Thailand would not get a look in. That's how much I value the 100% ownership. Bad experiences with essentially Thai nominees in the early days was not a fun time. Ditto - sort of, though mine was a service business, not manufacturing. The Thai shareholders were a nightmare and in the end the Finance Dept persuaded 2 of them to say they had no involvement and didn't know nuffin'. Thereafter the said Finance Dept 'fined' me 8,000 on each count, which I saw them put in the same petty cash box I had previously seen them distributing cash to the office workers from. Not the same case as yours but the same end result. I closed down the business and put 20 Thai workers out of work then retired. Everything has consequences and biting the hand that feeds you is rarely very smart.. Edited August 5, 2015 by Down the rabbit hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harada Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 This guy need to attend the TAT school of how to fudge stats or he'll be heading off for some attitude adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ratcatcher Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 This guy need to attend the TAT school of how to fudge stats or he'll be heading off for some attitude adjustment. Spot on. As we've been told many times, tourism is going through the roof, they are coming in their millions and the TAT wide boys are counting in the trillions. Lots of zeroes. Tourism, the saviour of Thailand's economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wabothai Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The commerce minister may be wise and not throwing figures and %'s around like TAT. Stop your xenophobic attitude and start working on the positive. Are you afraid you lose your famous thainess when you open your borders and give foreigners a chance to own (49+) anything? You will then notice that your economy will improve drastically and bring hapiness to to ALL people. Stop wining, start thinking and working !!!! The opportunities and money are laying in the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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