Sonthi Outsmarted Thaksin At The Eleventh Hour

[Serge]

The lesson of Thaksin is very clear and very needed, when he rose to power, nobody questioned or scrutinized how a former Policeman could become so rich so quickly. He was hailed as a saviour like a fat person sees the latest fad diet or magic pill.

..And therein lies the rub.

What makes you think anything has or will change? As far as I can tell Thailand is still now, always has been and always will be a patriarchal society. Thais admire rich, powerful, lucky, etc...it's an ingrained thai and thai-chinese thing.

You think all those PAD supporters with their civil service jobs on 30,000 baht per month salaries and their Mercedes Benz cars are opposed to corruption? No - just Thaksin form of corruption. They don't see the contradiction. The Bangkok middle-classes had a nice little earner going for them until Thaksin came along with his inconvenient huge electoral mandate given him by 'poor' people.

Forget your Western views of transparency and fighting corruption...it's all lip service. Nothing will change. It will always be who you know here and who you suck up to that will map your success or failure in Thailand.

You have a clear understang of Thailand. Spot on, I totally agree.

[VanZam]

I think post #2 worries me alot more than the coup did.. Seems I've woken up in China.

Sad that this will have an affect on the usual quality debates.

[Jai Dee]

I think post #2 worries me alot more than the coup did.. Seems I've woken up in China.

Sad that this will have an affect on the usual quality debates.

Unfortunate, but true.

We have to abide by the laws (and temporary rulings) of Thailand.

We request all our members to respect that and abide by it.

[ourmanflint]

I think post #2 worries me alot more than the coup did.. Seems I've woken up in China.

Sad that this will have an affect on the usual quality debates.

I think the idea is to quell any possible reprisals from Pro-Thaksin groups gaining momentum, which seems like a very reasonable state of affairs for the meantime. The last thing the country needs is more division.

[Samuian]

...

This is a typical, and disgusting, response - everyone is as dirty as him, people protest against Thaksin's corruption because they all want their share. What kind of cynical outlook in life and low opinion of Thai people one must have to think like that.

Nonsense.

Thumbs up, agreed!

Chuan was a good example, Prem is and so is Anand! The Aides close to the King, they won't dare to.

There are plenty of good people in this country but never had a realistic chance.

Mr.T. created the ultimate climate for Thailand to go finally down the drain and he leaving the sinking ship with coffers full of raked in money. That is why we have the situation as is right now!

I see it just the oppsite way, the people got fed up!

The 30 baht scheme, turned out to be a scam, the Temesak Deal was a horrendous slap in the face of all Thai people and the last nail to his 'coffin'!

To maintain a statement like "they all are the same" isn't only unfair - it's rude and very unfair towards the honest feelings of many in the Opposition, not to mention those who have died for this cause in 1972 and 1992!

Edited September 22, 2006 by Samuian

[fruittbatt]

I think post #2 worries me alot more than the coup did.. Seems I've woken up in China.

Sad that this will have an affect on the usual quality debates.

I think the idea is to quell any possible reprisals from Pro-Thaksin groups gaining momentum, which seems like a very reasonable state of affairs for the meantime. The last thing the country needs is more division.

For us posters the new rules also mean that we have to adhere to the letter while devising ways of stating our position within the given guidelines. Look at it as the opportunity to learn how to dance on a tightrope!

Edited September 22, 2006 by fruittbatt

[John K]

So does the mean TV will be doing a bye bye Thaksin Party at Sin?

[Plus]

Can we post quotes and links from The Nation, for example?

They have quite a few letters and articles, both online and in print, that are mildly critical of some aspects of CDRM.

When the thread was locked (temporarily) some of that stuff was removed.

Meanwhile "Nothing has changed in Thailand" assessment of the coup is allowed to stay. Why? It's a clear challenge to integrity of the generals, accusing them of being as corrupt as Thaksin. Rebuttals were removed, on the other hand.

I know mods are working under stress, but still...

[John K]

Well as most of the posters here are anti Thaksin I don’t think the new government would be too harsh, but yes rules are rules.

[george]

Can we post quotes and links from The Nation, for example?

They have quite a few letters and articles, both online and in print, that are mildly critical of some aspects of CDRM.

When the thread was locked (temporarily) some of that stuff was removed.

Meanwhile "Nothing has changed in Thailand" assessment of the coup is allowed to stay. Why? It's a clear challenge to integrity of the generals, accusing them of being as corrupt as Thaksin. Rebuttals were removed, on the other hand.

I know mods are working under stress, but still...

Please avoid critisism for the moment, and keep a polite language in your comments. We are all living here, and hope for a bright future for Thailand, finally...

Give the new guys a chance!

Thanks for your understanding!

Cheers

[Charma]

Under these conditions this thread is utterly pointless.

Hooray for the generals

[Viking]

If all this (about a planed coupe next day) is true this “affaire” have been far more dangerous than we all at first suspected. The American bitterness is then explained as they probably had their fingers in that plan.

I wonder who “spilled the beans” on MrT? Let’s hope that someone is taking notes and writes a book on this coupe, it sure will be an interesting read.

Viking

[kmart]

Under these conditions this thread is utterly pointless.

Hooray for the generals

Sad indeed.

[ratchabuild]

Sounds like post 1 matches my prediction, and I agree with post 2. Lets give them time to get things sorted out. From the outside it looks like the new leaders heads and hearts are in the right place. I know it will take time to undo all of damage Thaksin has done and work on insuring it does not happen again.

So to summarize the article, Old regime bad, new one good, all media is controlled and please believe everything we tell you. Seems I have heard that song before........oh yes page one of the dictators hymnsheet

[ratchabuild]

Sonthi outsmarted Thaksin at the eleventh hour

by: Thanong Khanthong - The Nation

Had Council for Democratic Reform under Constitutional Monarchy (CDRM) leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin not moved as fast as he did to stage a coup on Tuesday, Thaksin Shinawatra would have launched his own coup a day later. Don't be fooled by Thaksin's claim that he stands for democracy.

As the political crisis developed to the point of no return concerning whether Thaksin should stay or be booted out, General Sonthi had no choice but to swallow his words about the days of military coups being over. He had been very reluctant to resort to a coup, as he was known not to have any political ambitions. Moreover, he was not known to be an enemy of Thaksin. Although General Sonthi has a good relationship with both Privy Council President General Prem Tinsulanonda and Privy Council member General Surayuth Chulanont, he came to power partly due to a political compromise struck with Thaksin.

However, an intelligence report reached General Sonthi's camp stating that there would be bloodshed on Wednesday. The People's Alliance for Democracy had planned to hold a political rally that day at the Royal Plaza in order to force Thaksin out of politics. Had that rally taken place, there would have been clashes between the People's Alliance for Democracy and Thaksin's supporters and blood would have been spilt on Rajdamnoen Avenue. If only Thaksin had promised that he would take a break from politics and allow a period of political reforms to take place, the PAD and other branches of the anti-Thaksin movement would have declared victory. All political confrontations would have subsided. Thaksin could have run for office once the Constitution was amended, and he would have been returned to the premier's post, probably in the latter part of next year.

However, Thaksin never considered taking a break from power. Again, don't be fooled by his "taking a break" story - the idea never crossed his mind.

The General Sonthi camp learned that during the PAD rally, Yongyuth Tiyapairat and Newin Chidchob were planning to rally their supporters to create an ugly scene at the Royal Plaza. During the ensuing commotion, there would be human casualties. Thaksin would then have stepped in and declared a state of emergency, placing the country under martial law.

Now you can understand why he had time to prepare his state of emergency statement and read it at 9.20pm on Channel 9 from his New York hotel room. You can also understand why Yongyuth and Newin are now at the top of this country's most-wanted list and have surrendered themselves to the CDRM for interrogation.

Once the situation was under his complete control, Thaksin had planned to fly back yesterday in order to declare victory over anti-democratic elements in society. He had a military reshuffle list in hand that would have further consolidated his control over the military. With that accomplished, everything would have been easy. Virtually all institutions in the country would have been under his directive.

From his New York hotel, Thaksin was preparing to deliver an address at the UN Assembly. The room instead turned out to be the headquarters from which he attempted to launch a counter-coup and negotiate a political settlement. In New York, he planned to recruit top-notch American political consultants to advise him on his political campaign for the next election, which would have been pushed back from October 15 to some time in November.

Thaksin's talk of taking a break from politics was simply lip service. He told the Thai public he would decide whether to take a break from politics only after his Thai Rak Thai went to the Election Commission to register as candidates. This means Thaksin would have liked His Majesty the King to endorse a new election date before he made his decision.

Members of the Thai elite and the PAD, however, would not allow this to happen. If Thaksin were to run in the next election, he would have won. With 12 million votes or so, he would have claimed a democratic majority and he also would have stayed on as prime minister. After that he could rewrite Thai history by turning Thailand into his own regime.

General Sonthi had to act fast to head off Thaksin's coup. He staged a military coup on Tuesday, a day before the bloodshed was set to take place. He and Thaksin did have a telephone conversation on Tuesday evening, with Thaksin trying to buy time and negotiate a settlement.

He told General Sonthi that if he kept his cool, Thaksin would take a break from politics. He asked Sonthi to wait until he returned from New York so that the two could talk things out and said that he would reschedule his return flight to Bangkok to Wednesday, instead of yesterday as he had planned.

General Sonthi was polite, but told him that he had no choice, that he had to stage the coup.

In the meantime, Thaksin was checking on his military allies, who had control of Bangkok, for the most part. He remained certain that in a military power play, he could still emerge the victor. Maj-General Prin Suwannathat, commander of the First Infantry Brigade, is a close ally of Thaksin and he holds the most powerful military post in Bangkok. The commanders of the Air Force and the Navy are also good friends of Thaksin.

General Sonthi had the support of Lt-General Saphrang Kalayanamit of the Third Army, who had been outspoken in his anti-Thaksin remarks. The Third Army is in charge of all military operations in the North. Another key ally of Gen Sonthi is Lt-General Anupong Phaochinda of the First Infantry Division in Bangkok. Maj-General Sanit Prommas, the commander of the Second Cavalry Brigade, also came to play an important role in the power play to seize the capital.

Troops from Prachin Buri and Lop Buri were also mobilised to the capital to assist in the coup, the decisive outcome of which was ironically the victory of thaharn ban nok (upcountry military).

As it turned out, all of Thaksin's military allies, most notably Maj-General Prin, had been marked out - they could not move. General Ruengroj Mahasaranont, the supreme commander and a Thaksin ally, was to look after Bangkok once Thaksin had declared martial law. He too was subdued. Chidchai Vanasatidya and Prommin Lertsuridej were unable to launch any sort of counter effort.

Thaksin's wife Khunying Pojaman Shinawatra was supposed to take a 12am flight to Singapore on Tuesday night. She quickly changed her flight to 9pm. Well, Gen Sonthi had to let her off the hook.

Twenty-five minutes later, knowing that his wife was safely on an aircraft bound for Singapore, Thaksin read out his state of emergency address from his New York hotel room, effectively sacking General Sonthi .

But an hour later, General Sonthi declared a counter-coup to overthrow the Thaksin regime and tear up the Constitution.

The rest is history.

--The Nation 2006-09-22

So democracy was saved for Thailand. Hooray for the Generals, can I say that? Is that legal now, I would ask friends but there are 6 of us and I don't want to go to jail because more than 5 is illegal.

[hammered]

The initial Nation article is a fascinating read on how a coup is organized.

[Plus]

I hope we will be able to talk about it shortly, maybe in two weeks.

I don't mind sparing George from headaches in the meantime, I've already disrupted his lunch today, that's enough.

Let's just wait and see how things develop.

[John Galt]

1. Rule one: The boss is always right.

2. Rule two: If the boss is wrong, refer to rule one or in this case post two.

[george]

Thread temporary closed due to moderation issues.