chiang mai Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Those increase are already baked in and to be honest, they're further off than we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stament Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Yes it appears unlikely the FED will raise interest rates now, how about the UK the same? Where do people see the fx rate going over the next month or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i claudius Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Those increase are already baked in and to be honest, they're further off than we think. Yes ,but we can have our dreams , what is life if there is no hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loppylugs1 Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 56.01 Baht v £ last few mins,undoubtedly sink a fraction then more upward movement later in day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stament Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Yep 56 didn't take long that's 1 baht in a week, come on sterling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Do we see the gbp breaking through the 56 or 60 barriers soon? I think so. 60 in the next few months. There is also an outside chance it could rise to 65 in the longer term. My rationale : Although the pound is over valued, the baht is even more-so, indeed there might be something of a collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandyf Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 A break through 56 is possible but I suspect if it does so it wont go very far. The reason I think that is because recent UK retail figures were a disappointment and much of UK economic growth depends on consumer spending. I can't imagine it getting to 60 but as they say, we live in interesting (and very unusual) times. RE WHY USD: There's a relationship between USD and THB that is formal because of exports and reserve currency status. The relationship between GBP and THB is more casual and consequential. Understanding what's happening with USD therefore provides clues to the value of GBP/THB, the remaining link is then, where is the UK economy headed. Exactly. Wether you like it or not, you cannot separate the pound from the dollar. Invariably a drop in the dollar means some gain for the other reserve currencies. Any delay by the Fed can only be good news for the pound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandyf Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 +1 GBP/USD, 1.48 in March, now pushing 1.57. -1 GBP/USD 1.71 in July 2014 now pushing 1.57 Trivia question for today. What was the rate of exchange when the US penny was equal in value to the UK penny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 It didn't, it's a trick question, March 1985 saw GBP/USD at 1.03 whilst GBP/THB was circa 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chivas Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 +1 GBP/USD, 1.48 in March, now pushing 1.57. -1 GBP/USD 1.71 in July 2014 now pushing 1.57 Trivia question for today. What was the rate of exchange when the US penny was equal in value to the UK penny? Although Chiang mai has answered whether trick question or not I recall likewise around 1985 £/$ was close to Parity. Interest Rates on Mortgages 15% !! People the last 10 Years really dont know how lucky they are in the UK.......Personally never paid less than 10.25% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Those increase are already baked in and to be honest, they're further off than we think. In fact baked in is putting it mildly. Moreover recent world even the and the possibility of global deflation make it likely that they will have to be unbaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 I don't want to sound too gloomy because it's good news for expat Brits that they're getting more Baht for their Pounds. But many expat pensioners will have drawdown pensions or pension products that are linked to the stock market and that has been falling steadily, the FTSE is now down nearly 1,000 points from its high and that's around a 14% fall. That means that drawdown amounts will be reduced and that the value of individual funds will reduce in value. So on the one hand we get more Baht per Pound, because of the improved exchange rate, but the number of Pounds we get in the first place is likely to have fallen. Swings and roundabouts it seems and I can only hope the one cancels out the other, I fear it won't however. Big sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 I don't want to sound too gloomy because it's good news for expat Brits that they're getting more Baht for their Pounds. But many expat pensioners will have drawdown pensions or pension products that are linked to the stock market and that has been falling steadily, the FTSE is now down nearly 1,000 points from its high and that's around a 14% fall. That means that drawdown amounts will be reduced and that the value of individual funds will reduce in value. So on the one hand we get more Baht per Pound, because of the improved exchange rate, but the number of Pounds we get in the first place is likely to have fallen. Swings and roundabouts it seems and I can only hope the one cancels out the other, I fear it won't however. Big sigh. my investment in Pounds are reasonably successful since decades and it does not look like that i will suffer any losses in the near future. when i met 38 years ago the lady whom i married two years later her weight was 46kg (92 metric pounds). nowadays the numbers switched, she weighs 64kg (128 metric pounds) and i am happy with the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandyf Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 It didn't, it's a trick question, March 1985 saw GBP/USD at 1.03 whilst GBP/THB was circa 38. Not a trick question. In Aug 1971 the pound was allowed to float from the rate at the time of $2.42 to the pound. At that point in time there were 240 pennies in a pound. On the 1st Nov 2007 the rate peaked at $2.116 to the pound but by then there were only 100 pennies in a pound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 It didn't, it's a trick question, March 1985 saw GBP/USD at 1.03 whilst GBP/THB was circa 38. Not a trick question. In Aug 1971 the pound was allowed to float from the rate at the time of $2.42 to the pound. At that point in time there were 240 pennies in a pound. On the 1st Nov 2007 the rate peaked at $2.116 to the pound but by then there were only 100 pennies in a pound. Very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandyf Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Do we see the gbp breaking through the 56 or 60 barriers soon? Large drop in the dollar pushed the pound to a peak of 56.1 at 13.00hrs yesterday. Closed at 55.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stament Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Ouch! Back below 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loppylugs1 Posted August 22, 2015 Author Share Posted August 22, 2015 Ouch! Back below 56 Late Friday afternoons always £ drop,pick up again late Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Ouch! Back below 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stament Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Ouch! Back below 56 Late Friday afternoons always £ drop,pick up again late Monday morning Any reason for this common occurrence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loppylugs1 Posted August 22, 2015 Author Share Posted August 22, 2015 Ouch! Back below 56 Late Friday afternoons always £ drop,pick up again late Monday morning Any reason for this common occurrence? As long as I can remember it has always been a feature,£down it goes late Friday. Banker did explain years ago,but cannot relate the precise terms he used. If you look back at the trends always the same,unless drastic events happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jip99 Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 So what can realistically expect over the next 4-6weeks ? Thanks A J If you need to fix it for, say, purchase of a car etc you can buy 'forward' via your UK bank. They will apply a premium or discount to the current rate depending on what THEIR crystal ball is telling them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Ouch! Back below 56 Late Friday afternoons always £ drop,pick up again late Monday morning Any reason for this common occurrence? As long as I can remember it has always been a feature,£down it goes late Friday. Banker did explain years ago,but cannot relate the precise terms he used. If you look back at the trends always the same,unless drastic events happen I believe it's called squaring where traders settle their trades and prepare for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 So what can realistically expect over the next 4-6weeks ? Thanks A J Nobody knows,it could continue its current climb, plateau or fall and each of us will likely have a different opinion on which it will be. What I will say is that currency pairs are notorious for overshooting and then falling back slightly so expect that to happen at some point, who knows where/when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaeJoMTB Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 (edited) Ouch! Back below 56 Late Friday afternoons always £ drop,pick up again late Monday morning Any reason for this common occurrence? As long as I can remember it has always been a feature,£down it goes late Friday. Banker did explain years ago,but cannot relate the precise terms he used. If you look back at the trends always the same,unless drastic events happen Currency traders clearing their weekly positions. (oops, CM beat me to it!) Edited August 22, 2015 by MaeJoMTB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandyf Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Ouch! Back below 56 £ THB.jpg There are slight differences between forex data sources. This is IDC forex, Morningstar is another common one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 i think GBP is doing quite ok; an "ouch" is not justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stament Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 No ouch now back at 56 ;-). Roll on 60.... ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 (edited) No ouch now back at 56 ;-). Roll on 60.... ;-) Actually 55.73 is the best you can get in Thailand currently, so whilst it's not an "ouch" it's still not quite there yet. http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx BTW and FWIW I reckon it's nearly done, but that's just me. Regardless, 55.73 or thereabouts is a good rate, no actually, it's a great rate. Edited August 24, 2015 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stament Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Thanks I was purely liking at xe mid market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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