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Stock Market CRASH Thread....Are we all doomed?


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Below is a pic of the guy who waited for the 'right time' to get into the market. It's not about timing the market, but TIME IN THE MARKET. Buy good stocks, hold them, and get rich.

As an example, my best buy was Commonwealth Bank when they were $31 during the GFC. The reached $96, a capital gain of over 200% in 7 years, back at $75 currently due to the hysteria in the market, BUT.....I get $4.20 + franking credits (30%) in dividends, so a return of $5.60. That's 17.6% return on what I paid!!! And I've been getting that return, increased a little over the years, for the past 7 years, so they've paid for themselves, and everything I get from them from here on is free and clear, no tax in Australia because I'm a self funded retiree.

Just imagine having a couple of million in the market at that return. I don't care what happens to the share price, it can increase or decrease by 50% and my dividends will be little affected because dividends depend on profit, not share price, and I guarantee that the banks will not compromise on their profits when the CEO's bonus depends on increasing profits. Fees increase to keep the bonus rolling along.

Even at the current price, a fully franked return on CBA represents 7.46%, and try getting that in a fixed deposit or property.

What little spare cash I have right now is going into buying more shares in good companies that are paying good dividends. I don't like bleeding bulk capital any more than the next guy, but if my income isn't affected, how relevant is it? It was the same in the GFC, 60% of my capital gone, but it came back, and more importantly, my income didn't suffer.

Thanks Friendly Stranger for the endorsement, and incidentally, I agree, money isn't everything, very important, but not everything.

I'm unable to post the actual pic, so try this link http://cache4.asset-cache.net/xt/155441519.jpg?v=1&g=fs1|0|EPL|41|519&s=1

Edited by F4UCorsair
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My link above is not working apparently, and I'm unable to attach a link that does, due to encryption or something similar.

However, the pic is of a skeleton with his head in his hand, like 'The Thinker'. Get it? Of course you do!!

Edited by F4UCorsair
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Anyone who has put their money in U.S. or any other stock market since 2008 with the Fed and the U.S, Treasury trading debt for the electronic printing of worthless money by the Billions and Billions to infuse the stock market is a DIM BULB... There is no such thing as a free lunch... Not to mention the cases of insider trading using all sorts of schemes revealed over the past 7 years ...

And people still trust putting money into the stock market ..!!! Fricken Amazing ...

Since January this year my portfolio of Unit Trusts was still 5% up at end of trade on black Monday. Plus income already received from dividends. Today it is higher and more dividends due for payment at end of this month.What would have been my gain from fixed interest deposits? Less than 2% I think and no capital gains. There is no sensible alternative to stock markets for income and growth. Pick wisely and prosper. A good fund manager is worth his weight in gold.

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Nah, nothing to worry about. Sure, it would have been good to bail out when the Dow was 18000+, and buy back in after yesterday's 1000+ point drop, but many would have been burnt trying that.

I invest for dividends, so it matters little what the share price does, but remember it always recovers, not always quickly, but it does.

Don't sell out at the bottom.

A realist, finally.

This is just clock work, wait until this calms down. When the crisis happened in the states, many thought it was the end. It was not, and still there's warning signs,

But ppl should get a grip, it will not all come crumbling down, yet.

I love how many have said they've sold everything months ago and are currently shorting.

Just look around in Thailand, do you see the locals sweating it, no. It's only the ppl that think life will come to an end if their 7 figure portfolio does not garner double digit returns. Much has changed my thinking when I lived here. I used to work for the brokerages too.

Money is not everything, and that is no cliche.

"no money" is nothing, and that is no cliché tongue.png

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You know, I got caught once with my pants down and lost a shit load a few years back....sooooooooo, this time around I waited until Googgle went up $90 bucks in one day and cashed out......now have not one cent in the market......happy man for now.....Ching, Ching!!!????

Edited by chicowoodduck
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Comments like this are usually made by people that are either ignorant to the market or missed the run... because ANYONE that did not start going into the market and didn't catch the run from the end of 2008 beginning of 2009 is a DIM BULB

Take a look at the stock prices from that period and look at them now... do the math and don't forget to calculate using dividend re-investments.

Many good US companies out there that are strong, not dependent to global markets and paying great dividends and are on sale right now.
I have no clue how much more downside there is, but I am cautiously buying this downside in small increments.

Anyone who has put their money in U.S. or any other stock market since 2008 with the Fed and the U.S, Treasury trading debt for the electronic printing of worthless money by the Billions and Billions to infuse the stock market is a DIM BULB... There is no such thing as a free lunch... Not to mention the cases of insider trading using all sorts of schemes revealed over the past 7 years ...

And people still trust putting money into the stock market ..!!! Fricken Amazing ...

Edited by Nowisee
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Posted Today, 12:59

JDGRUEN, on 25 Aug 2015 - 01:03, said:snapback.png

Anyone who has put their money in U.S. or any other stock market since 2008 with the Fed and the U.S, Treasury trading debt for the electronic printing of worthless money by the Billions and Billions to infuse the stock market is a DIM BULB... There is no such thing as a free lunch... Not to mention the cases of insider trading using all sorts of schemes revealed over the past 7 years ...

And people still trust putting money into the stock market ..!!! Fricken Amazing ...

I just do not understand your post. One of the greatest and longest bull runs in history, if not the greatest and longest, occurred in the years you quote. I know my greatest gains, occurred during those years. Sure, now a bit is being given back, but I will bet everything I own that it will recover, and even if I lost 50% as a consequence of the printing money scenario (but I bet I don't), I'd still be way in front, particularly my dividend income. It's the nature of the market, and whilst fundamentals are important, it largely runs on emotion, even hysteria, and that's what we're seeing right now.

For example, the ASX200 (Australia) has changed direction at least 20 times today, and that's only the changes of 10 points or more, probably 50 changes if I count them all.

The small, unsavvy investors were expecting to take a hit following another fall in the US overnight, so they tried to get out early, the index dropped about 90 points, then the traders and institutions bought in, then the traders bailed out with an 80 point gain, and this was all within the first 20 minutes. It's fluctuated all day with those thinking they missed the train getting in, panicking with the first change of direction and bailing out, and on it goes. With an hour and a half to go to the close, it's down 17, about point 3 of one percent!!

It's no mystery, buy good companies at good prices, and stay invested. You will make a lot of money.

Edited by F4UCorsair
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China is only 1% down from December last year ....... hardly BIG!

China (Shanghai Composite) is UP 33% since august 25 last year.... not bad at all! wink.png

Yes, even the media are getting caught up between troubles in the stock market, and those in the real economy.

It might just be that the Chinese stock market shot up senselessly, and is now dropping senselessly. Just a big bubble. And some western stock markets have been overvalued for some time, and are just undergoing a correction.

There are those who insist the Chinese real economy is flagging though, much more than the Govt is letting on.

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Many good US companies out there that are strong, not dependent to global markets and paying great dividends and are on sale right now.

I have no clue how much more downside there is, but I am cautiously buying this downside in small increments.

I wouldn’t claim that many stocks are on a sale right now: http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

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Better you go to the individual stocks and read their P/E ratios... thumbsup.gif

Many good US companies out there that are strong, not dependent to global markets and paying great dividends and are on sale right now.
I have no clue how much more downside there is, but I am cautiously buying this downside in small increments.


I wouldn’t claim that many stocks are on a sale right now: http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

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If this is your first correction, it gets pretty scary - - we have been quite over due for one… but if you ever need comfort, just pull up a 50 + year chart - it goes down and then goes up again...

Sorry I feel all charts are out the window especially ones that date back 50 years. 50 years ago we did not have all this humungous debt load citizen, government and big business wise. We were satisfied with the simple things in life. We paid our bills on time. We were workers and not speculators. Today its such a cut throat world out there its amazing. You have a presidential race where idiots like Ted Cruz come on Faux tv saying "the first thing I do when I become president is shut down Planned Parenthood and take them to court for breaking the law blah blah blah." He refuses to answer the interviewers questions he just rants on from his canned message what a jerk. He just lost the women's vote then and there. He might as well do the Japanese sword thing as he is finished. At least the Donald was courteous enough to answer her questions.

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If this is your first correction, it gets pretty scary - - we have been quite over due for one… but if you ever need comfort, just pull up a 50 + year chart - it goes down and then goes up again...

Sorry I feel all charts are out the window especially ones that date back 50 years. 50 years ago we did not have all this humungous debt load citizen, government and big business wise. We were satisfied with the simple things in life. We paid our bills on time. We were workers and not speculators. Today its such a cut throat world out there its amazing. You have a presidential race where idiots like Ted Cruz come on Faux tv saying "the first thing I do when I become president is shut down Planned Parenthood and take them to court for breaking the law blah blah blah." He refuses to answer the interviewers questions he just rants on from his canned message what a jerk. He just lost the women's vote then and there. He might as well do the Japanese sword thing as he is finished. At least the Donald was courteous enough to answer her questions.

No not really. The great Depression was the "get rich quick" mentality that developed during the 1920s. Many Americans believed their fortune was just around the corner. This belief was fueled by the mass production of consumer goods, mass advertising in magazines and newspapers, and exotic silent movies telling tales of riches and success. With this "get rich quick" attitude, many Americans began to recklessly spend what little money they had. Hoping to look like glamorous movie stars, they bought a vast array of beauty products. On a larger scale many Americans purchased, sight unseen, parcels of land in Florida and southern California. When some investors went to visit the lots that had been purchased, they found swamps or desert. Realizing they had made a poor investment, many turned to the roaring stock market to overcome their losses. Focused on their own individual situations, these people did not recognize that their actions would soon combine with a number of other factors to produce the Great Depression.

As early as March 1929 a few financial experts warned that banks were making too many loans for stock speculation (the buying and selling of stock without regard for its actual value or the strength of the individual company

http://ic.galegroup.com/ic/uhic/ReferenceDetailsPage/ReferenceDetailsWindow?displayGroupName=Reference&zid=6d3bef0712b41d824dc3a746da70ef24&action=2&documentId=GALE%7CCX3425600011&userGroupName=mlin_c_montytech&jsid=c9674adb2ee4f7742f7c0575588b0c0d

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If this is your first correction, it gets pretty scary - - we have been quite over due for one… but if you ever need comfort, just pull up a 50 + year chart - it goes down and then goes up again...

Sorry I feel all charts are out the window especially ones that date back 50 years. 50 years ago we did not have all this humungous debt load citizen, government and big business wise. We were satisfied with the simple things in life. We paid our bills on time. We were workers and not speculators. Today its such a cut throat world out there its amazing. You have a presidential race where idiots like Ted Cruz come on Faux tv saying "the first thing I do when I become president is shut down Planned Parenthood and take them to court for breaking the law blah blah blah." He refuses to answer the interviewers questions he just rants on from his canned message what a jerk. He just lost the women's vote then and there. He might as well do the Japanese sword thing as he is finished. At least the Donald was courteous enough to answer her questions.

No not really. The great Depression was the "get rich quick" mentality that developed during the 1920s. Many Americans believed their fortune was just around the corner. This belief was fueled by the mass production of consumer goods, mass advertising in magazines and newspapers, and exotic silent movies telling tales of riches and success. With this "get rich quick" attitude, many Americans began to recklessly spend what little money they had. Hoping to look like glamorous movie stars, they bought a vast array of beauty products. On a larger scale many Americans purchased, sight unseen, parcels of land in Florida and southern California. When some investors went to visit the lots that had been purchased, they found swamps or desert. Realizing they had made a poor investment, many turned to the roaring stock market to overcome their losses. Focused on their own individual situations, these people did not recognize that their actions would soon combine with a number of other factors to produce the Great Depression.

As early as March 1929 a few financial experts warned that banks were making too many loans for stock speculation (the buying and selling of stock without regard for its actual value or the strength of the individual company

http://ic.galegroup.com/ic/uhic/ReferenceDetailsPage/ReferenceDetailsWindow?displayGroupName=Reference&zid=6d3bef0712b41d824dc3a746da70ef24&action=2&documentId=GALE%7CCX3425600011&userGroupName=mlin_c_montytech&jsid=c9674adb2ee4f7742f7c0575588b0c0d

Hmm sounds exactly like what is going on today.

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If this is your first correction, it gets pretty scary - - we have been quite over due for one… but if you ever need comfort, just pull up a 50 + year chart - it goes down and then goes up again...

Sorry I feel all charts are out the window especially ones that date back 50 years. 50 years ago we did not have all this humungous debt load citizen, government and big business wise. We were satisfied with the simple things in life. We paid our bills on time. We were workers and not speculators. Today its such a cut throat world out there its amazing. You have a presidential race where idiots like Ted Cruz come on Faux tv saying "the first thing I do when I become president is shut down Planned Parenthood and take them to court for breaking the law blah blah blah." He refuses to answer the interviewers questions he just rants on from his canned message what a jerk. He just lost the women's vote then and there. He might as well do the Japanese sword thing as he is finished. At least the Donald was courteous enough to answer her questions.

No not really. The great Depression was the "get rich quick" mentality that developed during the 1920s. Many Americans believed their fortune was just around the corner. This belief was fueled by the mass production of consumer goods, mass advertising in magazines and newspapers, and exotic silent movies telling tales of riches and success. With this "get rich quick" attitude, many Americans began to recklessly spend what little money they had. Hoping to look like glamorous movie stars, they bought a vast array of beauty products. On a larger scale many Americans purchased, sight unseen, parcels of land in Florida and southern California. When some investors went to visit the lots that had been purchased, they found swamps or desert. Realizing they had made a poor investment, many turned to the roaring stock market to overcome their losses. Focused on their own individual situations, these people did not recognize that their actions would soon combine with a number of other factors to produce the Great Depression.

As early as March 1929 a few financial experts warned that banks were making too many loans for stock speculation (the buying and selling of stock without regard for its actual value or the strength of the individual company

http://ic.galegroup.com/ic/uhic/ReferenceDetailsPage/ReferenceDetailsWindow?displayGroupName=Reference&zid=6d3bef0712b41d824dc3a746da70ef24&action=2&documentId=GALE%7CCX3425600011&userGroupName=mlin_c_montytech&jsid=c9674adb2ee4f7742f7c0575588b0c0d

Hmm sounds exactly like what is going on today.

Was the Fed around then? History repeating itself!

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Economics 101. Todays lesson: The Greek Crisis

How Much Does a Greek Urn

It is a slow day in a little Greek Village. The rain is beating down and the streets are

deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.

On this particular day a rich German tourist is driving through the village, stops at the local

hotel and lays a 100 Euro note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the

rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night.

The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs,

.

The hotelier grabs the 100 Euro note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

The butcher takes the 100 Euro note and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig

farmer.

The pig farmer takes the 100 Euro note and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and

fuel.

The guy at the Farmers' Co-op takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the

tavern.

The publican slips the money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar, who has also

been facing hard times and has had to offer him "services" on credit.

The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the 100

Euro note. The hotel proprietor then places the note back on the counter so the rich traveller

will not suspect anything.

At that moment the traveller comes down the stairs, picks up the 100

Euro note, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, takes the money, and leaves town.

No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole village is now out of

debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism.

And that, Ladies and Gentlemen, is how the Greek bailout package works

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Economics 101. Todays lesson: The Greek Crisis

How Much Does a Greek Urn

It is a slow day in a little Greek Village. The rain is beating down and the streets are

deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.

On this particular day a rich German tourist is driving through the village, stops at the local

hotel and lays a 100 Euro note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the

rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night.

The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs,

.

The hotelier grabs the 100 Euro note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

The butcher takes the 100 Euro note and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig farmer.

The pig farmer takes the 100 Euro note and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and

fuel.

The guy at the Farmers' Co-op takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the

tavern.

The publican slips the money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar, who has also

been facing hard times and has had to offer him "services" on credit.

The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the 100

Euro note. The hotel proprietor then places the note back on the counter so the rich traveler

will not suspect anything.

At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, picks up the 100

Euro note, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, takes the money, and leaves town.

No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole village is now out of

debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism.

And that, Ladies and Gentlemen, is how the Greek bailout package works

Nice one! clap2.gif

Any more relative 'lessons' like this one??

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Economics 101. Todays lesson: The Greek Crisis

How Much Does a Greek Urn

It is a slow day in a little Greek Village. The rain is beating down and the streets are

deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.

On this particular day a rich German tourist is driving through the village, stops at the local

hotel and lays a 100 Euro note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the

rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night.

The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs,

.

The hotelier grabs the 100 Euro note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

The butcher takes the 100 Euro note and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig farmer.

The pig farmer takes the 100 Euro note and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and

fuel.

The guy at the Farmers' Co-op takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the

tavern.

The publican slips the money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar, who has also

been facing hard times and has had to offer him "services" on credit.

The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the 100

Euro note. The hotel proprietor then places the note back on the counter so the rich traveler

will not suspect anything.

At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, picks up the 100

Euro note, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, takes the money, and leaves town.

No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole village is now out of

debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism.

And that, Ladies and Gentlemen, is how the Greek bailout package works

Nice one! clap2.gif

Any more relative 'lessons' like this one??

A very good analogy. Its called the velocity of money. Now look at it another way. The 100 Euros goes into the hotel owners pocket and he is very rich. He in turn puts it in his bank account where it stagnates. The velocity just died the same as all that Fed money sitting in banks that goes around and around going nowhere. You can Google charts on the velocity of money and how it has come to a near standstill. Money has to work that is what it is designed for. Now it sits accumulating interest in the 1% of the populations bank account and does nothing.

Edited by elgordo38
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This is a repost from a month ago: http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/840856-greek-parliament-passes-austerity-bill/?p=9626122

And the story was originally posted about the Irish bailout: http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/238057-financial-crisis/?p=4064105

Some of the early European bank packages were about addressing (missing) liquidity in the market, so here the story could perhaps be somewhat appropriate as a joke, but in the Greek deal, the Greeks have foreign debt, so there is no parallels between the story and what actually happened.

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I don't have an opinion in response to the many investment/monetary/fed reserve "experts" here other than knowing what has worked for us . . . 30 years or so of living below our means and building our nest egg via investing in a diversified portfolio with a carefully self-managed asset allocation made up of no individual equities and/or bonds. Our entire portfolio was and is made up of low cost mutual funds with the majority in index funds. We are now retired and while not Donald Trump rich, are living our lives in the style and comfort of our choosing.

It ain't brain surgery gang.

Edited by SpokaneAl
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I don't have an opinion in response to the many investment/monetary/fed reserve "experts" here other than knowing what has worked for us . . . 30 years or so of living below our means and building our nest egg via investing in a diversified portfolio with a carefully self-managed asset allocation made up of no individual equities and/or bonds. Our entire portfolio was and is made up of low cost mutual funds with the majority in index funds. We are now retired and while not Donald Trump rich, are living our lives in the style and comfort of our choosing.

It ain't brain surgery gang.

Congratulations for a job well done. Just guard what you have gained going forward. Do not judge the future by the past. I am not an "expert" but we are in deep trouble with no life preservers this time. 2008 was a warning shot 2015 could be a whole lot worse. As my sainted grandmother used to say "A fool and his money are soon parted"

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I don't have an opinion in response to the many investment/monetary/fed reserve "experts" here other than knowing what has worked for us . . . 30 years or so of living below our means and building our nest egg via investing in a diversified portfolio with a carefully self-managed asset allocation made up of no individual equities and/or bonds. Our entire portfolio was and is made up of low cost mutual funds with the majority in index funds. We are now retired and while not Donald Trump rich, are living our lives in the style and comfort of our choosing.

It ain't brain surgery gang.

Exactly Al, and during that time you've probably seen 4 or 5 major downward movements, another dozen, or more, 'corrections', and now you're comfortable in retirement, as I am because you didn't panic, rode out the peaks and troughs, didn't try to time the market, and generally remained calm, confident in the wealth generating potential of the market.

I frequently hear from others that the stock markets, and economies, of the world are going to collapse in September, just a week away. I hear it so often that it's the stuff of urban myth, somebody hears it, tell half a dozen others, they tell half a dozen, etc., and the myth is perpetuated. How anybody can put a month on it is quite beyond me, but I may yet be proven wrong at worst, and negative at best. Whoever started this story hasn't told Warren Buffett, because he's still buying, and I'm sure there will be those who cite his recent acquisition of Precision Castparts as not a god investment, but there isn't an investor alive who hasn't taken a hit at some time. Or it just may be that he knows something the rest of us don't? He didn't become the most successful investor of the 20th century because he was a fool.

In 2007/8 the Dow dropped from 14000 to 6000, and recovered to over 18000. Those who bought in at any time up to when it went through 15500 are still in front, and have had the advantage of dividends during that period. That will continue provided they don't panic and sell.

Edited by F4UCorsair
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I don't have an opinion in response to the many investment/monetary/fed reserve "experts" here other than knowing what has worked for us . . . 30 years or so of living below our means and building our nest egg via investing in a diversified portfolio with a carefully self-managed asset allocation made up of no individual equities and/or bonds. Our entire portfolio was and is made up of low cost mutual funds with the majority in index funds. We are now retired and while not Donald Trump rich, are living our lives in the style and comfort of our choosing.

It ain't brain surgery gang.

Congratulations for a job well done. Just guard what you have gained going forward. Do not judge the future by the past. I am not an "expert" but we are in deep trouble with no life preservers this time. 2008 was a warning shot 2015 could be a whole lot worse. As my sainted grandmother used to say "A fool and his money are soon parted"

You're implying a total collapse of the financial system, if a such thing happens your money in the bank isn't safe either. Possibly a civil war will ensue, lets say that you took your money out of the bank, where will you spend it? Its a no brainer really, if a such thing happens we're all screwed regardless of where we invest our money in.

Edited by Lukecan
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The Dow was up 619 yesterday. This is not fundamentals or China driving it, but pure hysteria, undisciplined investors, and the big guys are taking advantage of that hysteria, buying in when the little guys panic.

Right on the button Lukecan. It is a NO BRAINER, and when this settles down, as it inevitably will, many will be asking what it was all about. Remember Greece just a few weeks ago? Stock markets of countries that had NOTHING to do with Greece (like Australia), not a trading partner, no banks there, all followed the leader, and a week later people were saying What the **** happened there.

Edited by F4UCorsair
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The Dow was up 619 yesterday. This is not fundamentals or China driving it, but pure hysteria, undisciplined investors, and the big guys are taking advantage of that hysteria, buying in when the little guys panic.

Right on the button Lukecan. It is a NO BRAINER, and when this settles down, as it inevitably will, many will be asking what it was all about. Remember Greece just a few weeks ago? Stock markets of countries that had NOTHING to do with Greece (like Australia), not a trading partner, no banks there, all followed the leader, and a week later people were saying What the **** happened there.

I invested in the russian market last august, I'm down around %30-35 on $ terms.

Clearly there is a huge EM bear market going on, People who invested in Malaysia, Thailand, Colombia,Turkey,Brazil,Argentine etc have all lost money in the last 2 years.

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